This is the sixth and final post in a series taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll finish the series by reviewing the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including Cliff Lee’s Indians’ stats only (he ranked 32nd based on 152 IP). The stats from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included.
1. Zack Greinke (Preseason rank was 16) - KC, SP
- Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 237 K, 3.55 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
- Projected stats: 206 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.93 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 179 K, 1.82 Sherpa Pts
2. Felix Hernandez (23) - SEA, SP
- Actual stats: 232 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 211 K, 3.19 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 198 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 174 K, 1.57 Sherpa Pts
3. Roy Halladay (2) - TOR, SP
- Actual stats: 239 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 208 K, 3.09 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 240 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 173 K, 3.31 Sherpa Pts
4. CC Sabathia (1) - NYY, SP
- Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 194 K, 3.17 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 235 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 219 K, 3.92 Sherpa Pts
5. Justin Verlander (34) - DET, SP
- Actual stats: 232.1 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 264 K, 3.06 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 198 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 160 K, 1.29 Sherpa Pts
6. Jon Lester (39) - BOS, SP
- Actual stats: 203.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 225 K, 2.48 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 177 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 4.27 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 135 K, 1.47 Sherpa Pts
7. Josh Beckett (8) - BOS, SP
- Actual stats: 207.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 194 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 194 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.22 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 182 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts
8. Andrew Bailey (186) - OAK, RP
- Actual stats: 81.1 IP, 6 W, 26 SV, 1.88 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 89 K, 2.19 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 45 IP, 2 W, 0 SV, 6.14 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 49 K, 0.19 Sherpa Pts
9. Mariano Rivera (7) - NYY, RP
- Actual stats: 65.1 IP, 3 W, 44 SV, 1.79 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 71 K, 2.14 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 72 IP, 3 W, 35 SV, 2.38 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 72 K, 2.51 Sherpa Pts
10. Edwin Jackson (232) - DET, SP
- Actual stats: 209 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 156 K, 2.11 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 138 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 5.67 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 99 K, -0.14 Sherpa Pts
As you can see, there were a couple of big surprises on this list, namely Andrew Bailey and Edwin Jackson. It’s also interesting to note that Red Sox RP Jonathan Papelbon was only the 5th-ranked Closer, trailing Bailey, Rivera, Joe Nathan, and even David Aardsma. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.
You’ll also note that only four of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!
20. John Lackey (3) - LAA, SP
- Actual stats: 176.1 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 139 K, 1.60 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 223 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.71 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 181 K, 2.85 Sherpa Pts
57. Kevin Slowey (4) - MIN, SP
- Actual stats: 90.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.39 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 75 K, 0.78 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 180 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.15 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 151 K, 2.60 Sherpa Pts
18. Jonathan Papelbon (5) - BOS, RP
- Actual stats: 67 IP, 1 W, 38 SV, 1.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 76 K, 1.69 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 68 IP, 3 W, 38 SV, 2.38 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 82 K, 2.56 Sherpa Pts
23. James Shields (6) - TB, SP
- Actual stats: 219.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.14 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 167 K, 1.52 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 215 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.14 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 171 K, 2.54 Sherpa Pts
11. Joe Nathan (9) - MIN, RP
- Actual stats: 65 IP, 2 W, 45 SV, 2.22 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 83 K, 2.07 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 69 IP, 3 W, 35 SV, 2.48 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 79 K, 2.42 Sherpa Pts
N/A Justin Duchscherer (10) - OAK, SP
- Actual stats: N/A - out entire season
- Projected stats: 163 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 123 K, 2.26 Sherpa Pts
We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to develop our projections for the 2010 season. We’ll post from time to time during the off-season as warranted by developments.
Enjoy the rest of the playoffs!
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