The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to let all of you out there in Sherpaville know that I’ll be appearing on Jeff Erickson’s “Fantasy Focus” show today (Tue 7/29) beginning at 12:05 pm Eastern/9:05 am Pacific. You can catch Jeff’s show on the MLB Home Plate channel (XM radio channel 175).

Hope you’re able to tune in!

The Sherpa

In this post I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Pitchers (both year-to-date and for the rest of the season) in an AL-only format (i.e. - Pitching categories are Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP). Each player receives a Sherpa Point score ranging from 0 to 1 in each of the 5 categories; thus, the maximum possible score is 5.00.

For the counting statistics the league leader is assigned a score of 1.00; all other Pitchers’ scores are calculated by taking the ratio of their score in a particular category to the league leader’s score. For example, if the league leader has 15 Wins, a Pitcher with 10 Wins would receive a score of .67, a Pitcher with 5 Wins would receive a score of .33, etc. For average-based categories (e.g. - ERA and WHIP) a proxy statistic is used. Pitchers’ Sherpa Points scores in each individual category are added to calculate the Total Sherpa Points.

Top 10 Pitchers Year-to-Date

1. Cliff Lee - 3.71 (Remainder-of-Season forecast = 3.00 Sherpa Points, which ranks 3rd overall)
2. Roy Halladay - 3.61 (3.85, 1st)
3. Justin Duchscherer - 3.04 (2.80, 6th)
4. Ervin Santana - 2.72 (2.09, 20th)
5. James Shields - 2.58 (2.90, 4th)
6. Joe Saunders - 2.55 (1.64, 35th)
7. Mariano Rivera - 2.37 (2.80, 5th)
8. Mike Mussina - 2.32 (2.05, 21st)
9. Josh Beckett - 2.20 (2.78, 7th)
10. Felix Hernandez - 2.16 (2.77, 8th)
11. Scott Kazmir - 2.16 (2.67, 9th)

Top 10 Pitchers for Remainder of Season

1. Roy Halladay - 3.85 (Year-to-Date score = 3.61 Sherpa Points, which ranks 2nd)
2. John Lackey - 3.21 (1.97, 19th)
3. Cliff Lee - 3.00 (3.71, 1st)
4. James Shields - 2.90 (2.58, 5th)
5. Mariano Rivera - 2.80 (2.37, 7th)
6. Justin Duchscherer - 2.80 (3.04, 3rd)
7. Josh Beckett - 2.78 (2.20, 9th)
8. Felix Hernandez - 2.77 (2.16, Tied for 10th)
9. Scott Kazmir - 2.67 (2.16, Tied for 10th)
10. Daisuke Matsuzaka - 2.63 (1.94, 20th)

John Lackey’s year-to-date results are obviously hampered by the fact that he didn’t pitch his first regular season game until May 14th. Still, with three bad outings in his last four starts, he may be a buy-low candidate today. I would also consider Daisuke Matsuzaka a buy-low candidate at this point in the season. On the flip side, three Pitchers I would be looking to sell high on if I owned them: (1) Ervin Santana, (2) Joe Saunders, and (3) Mike Mussina.
In my next post I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Hitters in an NL-only format.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Major League Baseball GMs are not the only people concerned with trading deadlines this week - many fantasy team owners also have trading deadlines rapidly approaching. However, whether your league’s trading deadline is August 1st, September 1st, or even if your league doesn’t have a deadline, there are certain steps you should take before you play “let’s make a deal”:

1. Assess your potential point gain and loss in each scoring category your league uses. Be realistic (erring on the side of pessimism) - if the team one place ahead of you in the Stolen Base category has 30 more SBs than you do, you’re probably not going to catch them with just 1/3 of the season left, even if you trade today for Jose Reyes. Remember to consider potential point loss in each category too - gaining 2 points in SBs does you no good if you have to trade away a slugger whose departure will cost you 3-4 points in HRs in order to obtain the speed demon you crave.
2. Calculate your potential point swing in each category. If you have the potential to gain 2 points and lose 4 points in a particular category, then your potential point swing in that category is 6 points.
3. Determine your 2-3 Hitting and Pitching categories with the biggest potential point swings and make these categories your priority in seeking and evaluating potential trades.

Several related notes:

1. When assessing your team’s ability to gain/lose ground in each category, be sure to consider the impact of recent changes that other teams have made to their rosters. If the team one place ahead of you in the Home Run category just traded Jose Reyes for Ryan Howard, it’s a lot less likely you’ll catch them than if they just traded Ryan Howard for Jose Reyes.
2. Consider the correlations between categories as well (at least in a qualitative sense). Trading for a slugger is likely to help you in multiple categories (HRs, RBIs), whereas trading for a top base-stealer or a Closer is less likely to have a spillover effect in other categories.
3. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking it’s easier to make up ground in average-based categories (e.g. - AVG, OBP, ERA, WHIP) than in counting categories (e.g. - HRs, SBs, Wins, Ks) just because a team’s results can move up or down in the average-based categories. While the latter statement is true, average-based categories are typically a function of a team’s year-to-date At-Bats (AB) or Innings Pitched (IP). As the season progresses, large gains/losses in a team’s average-based categories become increasingly less likely.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Today I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Hitters (both year-to-date and for the rest of the season) in a standard AL-only league format (i.e. - Hitting categories are HR, RBI, AVG, SB, and Runs Scored). Each player receives a Sherpa Point score ranging from 0 to 1 in each of the 5 categories; thus, the maximum possible score is 5.00.

For the counting statistics the league leader is assigned a score of 1.00; all other Hitters’ scores are calculated by taking the ratio of their score in a particular category to the league leader’s score. For example, if the league leader has 25 Home Runs, a Hitter with 15 Home Runs would receive a score of .60, a Hitter with 10 Home Runs would receive a score of .40, etc. For average-based categories (e.g.- AVG) a proxy statistic is used. Hitters’ Sherpa Points scores in each individual category are added to calculate the Total Sherpa Points.

Top 10 Hitters Year-to-Date

1. Ian Kinsler - 3.82 (Remainder-of-Season forecast = 3.65 Sherpa Points, which ranks 2nd overall)
2. Josh Hamilton - 3.34 (3.00, 9th)
3. Alex Rodriguez - 3.19 (4.35, 1st)
4. Grady Sizemore - 3.06 (3.22, 3rd)
5. Jermaine Dye - 2.98 (2.95, 11th)
6. Carlos Quentin - 2.90 (2.90, 12th)
7. Justin Morneau - 2.80 (3.07, 6th)
8. Dustin Pedroia - 2.76 (2.62, 25th)
9. Kevin Youkilis - 2.70 (2.63, 24th)
10. Ichiro Suzuki - 2.58 (3.08, 5th)

Top 10 Hitters for Remainder of Season

1. Alex Rodriguez - 4.35 (Year-to-Date score = 3.19 Sherpa Points, which ranks 3rd)
2. Ian Kinsler - 3.65 (3.82, 1st)
3. Grady Sizemore - 3.22 (3.06, 4th)
4. Manny Ramirez - 3.16 (2.56, 11th)
5. Ichiro Suzuki - 3.08 (2.58, 10th)
6. Justin Morneau - 3.07 (2.80, 7th)
7. Miguel Cabrera - 3.00 (2.33, 18th)
8. Magglio Ordonez - 3.00 (2.35, 17th)
9. Josh Hamilton - 3.00 (3.34, 2nd)
10. Carl Crawford - 2.97 (2.17, 26th)

With fantasy league trading deadlines rapidly approaching, these lists can serve as a guide to potential sell high and buy low candidates.  For example, if you currently own Josh Hamilton, and the Alex Rodriguez owner in your league is willing to trade A-Rod in a one-for-one deal for Hamilton, I’d do it in a heartbeat!

The other “sell high” candidates that jump out from the lists above are Red Sox Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis.  If you’re looking for a “buy low” candidate, Carl Crawford is definitely a player worth pursuing for the home stretch.

I’ll take a look at the Top 10 AL-only Pitchers in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa

In this post I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Pitchers (both year-to-date and for the rest of the season) in a standard mixed league format (i.e. - Pitching categories are Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP). Each player receives a Sherpa Point score ranging from 0 to 1 in each of the 5 categories; thus, the maximum possible score is 5.00.

For the counting statistics the league leader is assigned a score of 1.00; all other Pitchers’ scores are calculated by taking the ratio of their score in a particular category to the league leader’s score. For example, if the league leader has 15 Wins, a Pitcher with 10 Wins would receive a score of .67, a Pitcher with 5 Wins would receive a score of .33, etc. For average-based categories (e.g. - ERA and WHIP) a proxy statistic is used. Pitchers’ Sherpa Points scores in each individual category are added to calculate the Total Sherpa Points.

Top 10 Pitchers Year-to-Date

1. Cliff Lee - 3.60 (Remainder-of-Season forecast = 2.48 Sherpa Points, which ranks 18th overall)
2. Roy Halladay - 3.45 (3.68, 2nd)
3. Dan Haren - 3.39 (3.59, 3rd)
4. CC Sabathia - 3.22 (3.69, 1st)
5. Brandon Webb - 2.94 (3.25, 5th)
6. Justin Duchscherer - 2.93 (2.61, 13th)
7. Cole Hamels - 2.93 (2.96, 8th)
8. Tim Lincecum - 2.84 (2.44, 19th)
9. Ben Sheets - 2.67 (2.52, 17th)
10. Ervin Santana - 2.66 (2.03, 36th)

Top 10 Pitchers for Remainder of Season

1. CC Sabathia - 3.69 (Year-to-Date score = 3.22 Sherpa Points, which ranks 4th)
2. Roy Halladay - 3.68 (3.45, 2nd)
3. Dan Haren - 3.59 (3.39, 3rd)
4. Johan Santana - 3.35 (2.32, 16th)
5. Brandon Webb - 3.25 (2.94, 5th)
6. Jake Peavy - 3.25 (2.16, 22nd)
7. John Lackey - 3.13 (1.88, 34th)
8. Cole Hamels - 2.96 (2.93, 7th)
9. Mariano Rivera - 2.83 (2.33, 15th)
10. James Shields - 2.69 (2.27, Tied for 17th)

As you would expect, there’s more of a difference between the Year-to-Date and Remainder-of-Season results for Pitchers than there is for Hitters. While hitting stats are somewhat team dependent (e.g. - RBI, Runs Scored), a Pitcher’s Wins are much more team dependent, which makes them more difficult to predict accurately.

In my next post I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Hitters in an AL-only format.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Today I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Hitters (both year-to-date and for the rest of the season) in a standard mixed league format (i.e. - Hitting categories are HR, RBI, AVG, SB, and Runs Scored). Each player receives a Sherpa Point score ranging from 0 to 1 in each of the 5 categories; thus, the maximum possible score is 5.00.

For the counting statistics the league leader is assigned a score of 1.00; all other Hitters’ scores are calculated by taking the ratio of their score in a particular category to the league leader’s score. For example, if the league leader has 25 Home Runs, a Hitter with 15 Home Runs would receive a score of .60, a Hitter with 10 Home Runs would receive a score of .40, etc. For average-based categories (e.g.- AVG) a proxy statistic is used. Hitters’ Sherpa Points scores in each individual category are added to calculate the Total Sherpa Points.

Top 10 Hitters Year-to-Date

1. Lance Berkman - 3.59 (Remainder-of-Season forecast = 3.68 Sherpa Points, which ranks 2nd overall)
2. Ian Kinsler - 3.44 (3.22, 5th)
3. Josh Hamilton - 3.19 (2.76, 17th)
4. Hanley Ramirez - 3.16 (3.40, 4th)
5. Matt Holliday - 2.99 (3.64, 3rd)
6. Jose Reyes - 2.98 (3.07, 10th)
7. Ryan Braun - 2.96 (3.09, 8th)
8. Alex Rodriguez - 2.88 (3.84, 1st)
9. Chipper Jones - 2.84 (2.89, 15th)
10. David Wright - 2.82 (3.08, 9th) and Chase Utley - 2.82 (3.11, 7th).

Top 10 Hitters for Remainder of Season

1. Alex Rodriguez - 3.84 (Year-to-Date score = 2.88 Sherpa Points, which ranks 8th)
2. Lance Berkman - 3.68 (3.59, 1st)
3. Matt Holliday - 3.64 (2.99, 5th)
4. Hanley Ramirez - 3.40 (3.16, 4th)
5. Albert Pujols - 3.22 (2.80, 12th)
6. Ian Kinsler - 3.22 (3.44, 2nd)
7. Chase Utley - 3.11 (2.82, Tied for 10th)
8. Ryan Braun - 3.09 (2.96, 7th)
9. David Wright - 3.08 (2.82, Tied for 10th)
10. Jose Reyes - 3.07 (2.98, 6th)

It’s very interesting to see the majority of the Hitters appear in both lists, indicating that over the course of a 162-game season, the top Hitters are generally the ones you would have expected to see at the top of this list before the season began.

I’ll take a look at the Top 10 Mixed League Pitchers in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to let you know that Fantasy Baseball Sherpa was featured in Dr. Mildred Culp’s Workwise column in today’s NY Daily News!

You’ll notice that the bobblehead in front of me in my picture is that of deposed Mets’ manager Willie Randolph. No, I’m not a sadist; yes, the picture was taken when he was still the manager!

Please share the article with anyone you know who would be interested!

Thanks,

The Sherpa

With just over 40% of the regular season remaining to be played, the 32 MLB teams now have a pretty idea of whether they will contend for a playoff spot this season. All of the contenders are looking for ways to upgrade their team in the weeks leading up to the July 31st trading deadline.

Most of the rumored acquisitions would represent incremental improvements rather than dramatic upgrades. However, there is one exception, the proverbial elephant in the room. Of course, that would be Barry Lamar Bonds, the all-time home run leader (until at least 2014-15, when Alex Rodriguez should assume that title, assuming he stays reasonably healthy and doesn’t suffer a dramatic drop-off in his production).

Many baseball insiders doubt that Bonds will play again, at least not this season. Bonds’ agent, Jeff Borris, recently voiced the opinion of many when he stated that his star client has been blacklisted by the baseball establishment. That may be due to Bonds’ age (he’ll be 44 next week), his inability to stay healthy/play in the outfield for extended periods of time, his ongoing legal entanglements related to alleged steroid and HGH use, his clubhouse demeanor, the accompanying media circus, or some combination of these factors. Whatever the reason(s), teams collectively feel that the distractions Bonds’ presence would create outweigh his remaining usefulness as a hitter (among all Hitters with at least 20 AB in 2007, Bonds led the majors with a .480 On Base Percentage!)

I may be in the minority, but I still firmly believe that the temptation of adding a hitter of Bonds’ stature to his lineup will prove too much to resist for some GM as the July 31st trading deadline nears, then passes. Someone will crack, break the glass, grab the jewels, and run. Of the 32 MLB teams, I believe there are 8 candidates to do just that:

1. Tampa Bay - Bonds would represent a huge upgrade over Jonny Gomes, Cliff Floyd, Eric Hinske, or anyone else the Rays may be tempted to trot out at DH. Besides, who could resist Tampa’s potential marketing slogan (”putting the Devil back in the Rays”)? Bonds would definitely inject life (and hopefully nothing else) into Tampa’s inconsistent offense.
2. NY Mets - far less likely because of Bonds’ assumed inability to play the outfield on a consistent basis. However, who would you rather have in left field 4-5 games per week - Bonds, Fernando Tatis, Nick Evans, Endy Chavez, or Angel Pagan?
3. Detroit - depending on how both Gary Sheffield’s body and the Tigers’ pitchers’ arms hold up, this could also be a good match.
4. Minnesota - signing Bonds would relegate either Jason Kubel or Michael Cuddyer to the bench.
5. Los Angeles Angels - less likely, because signing Bonds to DH would force Vlad Guerrero to play right field almost every day, which the Angels seem reluctant to do.
6. NY Yankees - Hideki Matsui may be out for the rest of the season, which would add to the offensive woes for the surprisingly run-challenged Bombers’ offense. However, with Jorge Posada, Johnny Damon, and Jason Giambi all needing to occupy the DH spot on occasion already, Bonds wouldn’t fit as well here as he would with some of the other teams further up the list.
7. Oakland - Frank Thomas and Mike Sweeney are already injured, so what’s the downside to adding Bonds? Sure, the A’s have a surplus of outfielder/DH types at this point (Exhibit A: Jack Cust). However, in an organization that places a high value on OBP and has surprisingly managed to stay within shouting distance of the Anemic Angels in spite of a “Who’s he?” pitching staff, Bonds may make sense.
8. Boston - Bonds is a logical replacement for the Red Sox if David Ortiz turns out to be less than fully recovered from his tendon sheath injury.

So, assuming that some GM soon does the “unthinkable”, what kind of stats should a fantasy team owner expect Bonds to produce over the last 2 months or so of the season? Here are my projections:

• 45 Games Played
• 148 At Bats
• 31 Runs
• 41 Hits
• 8 Doubles
• 0 Triples
• 11 Home Runs
• 29 Runs Batted In
• 44 Walks
• 22 Strikeouts
• .457 On Base Percentage
• .554 Slugging Percentage
• 1.011 On Base + Slugging Percentage

Would those kinds of stats pique your interest and help your fantasy team? I thought so. Unless you have moral qualms about owning Bonds, he’s definitely worth a speculative pick-up in your league right now if your rules permit, you have the roster space, and he’s available.

Go get him!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to let all of you out there in Sherpaville know that I’ll be appearing tonight (Wednesday 7/16) on “The CSRA Sports Hour” show with host Ashley Brown. “The CSRA Sports Hour” airs in the Augusta, Georgia area on WRDW (News Talk Sports Radio 1630 AM). Ashley’s show airs from 6-7 pm; I’m not sure exactly what time I’ll be on.

Hope you’re able to listen!

The Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to let all of you out there in Sherpaville know that I’ll be appearing today (Friday 7/11) on “The Doghouse” show with hosts Garrett Bedenbaugh and Taylor Randall.  “The Doghouse” airs in the Clinton, South Carolina area on WPCC (Sports Radio 1410 AM).  I’ll be on just after 7:35am to discuss the current baseball season with Garrett and Taylor.

Hope you’re able to listen!

The Sherpa