Comments on: Throwing out the first pitch (2/17/08) http://fantasybaseballsherpa.com/blog/2008/02/17/throwing-out-the-first-pitch/ Guiding You to Victory!!! Thu, 17 May 2012 22:56:29 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.2 By: The Sherpa http://fantasybaseballsherpa.com/blog/2008/02/17/throwing-out-the-first-pitch/#comment-4 The Sherpa Sat, 23 Feb 2008 20:45:24 +0000 http://fantasybaseballsherpa.com/blog/2008/02/17/throwing-out-the-first-pitch/#comment-4 Hey Sam, wholeheartedly agree with you about the importance of knowing your league, whether it be something about your league's criteria or the tendencies/preferences of your fellow owners. It's fun to search for "inefficiencies", then use the resulting knowledge to your advantage! Good question too about the importance of seeing individual players vs. relying on their stats - kind of like the tug of war between the scouts and the sabermetricians that Michael Lewis wrote about in Moneyball. I tend to rely more on statistics and what people close to the team are writing/saying about a particular player's opportunity for playing time. Since I'm not a scout, I don't see most players often enough to form a valid opinion based on my personal observations. Some statistical categories also lend themselves better to observation than others do (SBs & HRs vs. OBP for Hitters; Ks vs. ERA for Pitchers). When all is said and done, getting an accurate read on a player's future playing time is more important than either historical stats or personal observation. Juan Rivera might well be a more valuable player for fantasy purposes than Casey Blake if both were playing regularly. However, Blake will help your fantasy team a lot more than Rivera if he's playing regularly and Rivera isn't (which is likely to be the case yet again this season)! Hey Sam, wholeheartedly agree with you about the importance of knowing your league, whether it be something about your league’s criteria or the tendencies/preferences of your fellow owners. It’s fun to search for “inefficiencies”, then use the resulting knowledge to your advantage!

Good question too about the importance of seeing individual players vs. relying on their stats - kind of like the tug of war between the scouts and the sabermetricians that Michael Lewis wrote about in Moneyball. I tend to rely more on statistics and what people close to the team are writing/saying about a particular player’s opportunity for playing time. Since I’m not a scout, I don’t see most players often enough to form a valid opinion based on my personal observations. Some statistical categories also lend themselves better to observation than others do (SBs & HRs vs. OBP for Hitters; Ks vs. ERA for Pitchers).

When all is said and done, getting an accurate read on a player’s future playing time is more important than either historical stats or personal observation. Juan Rivera might well be a more valuable player for fantasy purposes than Casey Blake if both were playing regularly. However, Blake will help your fantasy team a lot more than Rivera if he’s playing regularly and Rivera isn’t (which is likely to be the case yet again this season)!

]]> By: Sam Morris http://fantasybaseballsherpa.com/blog/2008/02/17/throwing-out-the-first-pitch/#comment-2 Sam Morris Wed, 20 Feb 2008 16:40:59 +0000 http://fantasybaseballsherpa.com/blog/2008/02/17/throwing-out-the-first-pitch/#comment-2 I look forward to reading your blog about fantasy baseball strategy, but I myself struggle to come up with any idea of what I would consider strategy. I mean my strategy is the same as the other owners in my league- to score the most points and win. Any time I've gone into a draft thinking "my goal is to X" I've found out that its the same goal as some other owners so its quickly defeated. I've played under different formats over the years and with different groups of owners and in my opinion the most important lesson is to know your league. It's similar to the talk you hear from players who have a new stadium- "we don't know how the park is going to play yet". I've found that you can take advantage of your league by knowing that a certain type of player is undervalued, for example. That knowledge is the best strategy to take advantage of. One other thing that I've never seen a great discussion about- what is your opinion on whether you have to SEE a player in order to determine their value? I do not watch every MLB game, not even all the games for a single team. Therefore I know there are players that I own that I've never seen before. For example, two years ago I read a comment on a website about Juan Rivera possibly losing playing time in the near future, so I quickly traded him for the hot-hitting Casey Blake who was hovering near .380 at the time. Then a week or two later I caught a glimpse of Juan Rivera while watching a game and I was floored! That guy looked like a huge powerful player and the way he swung the bat made me feel like a fool for trading him. I still think of him as Vlad junior. What are your thoughts? Do you need to see the players to validate your opinion of their value/potential? I look forward to reading your blog about fantasy baseball strategy, but I myself struggle to come up with any idea of what I would consider strategy. I mean my strategy is the same as the other owners in my league- to score the most points and win. Any time I’ve gone into a draft thinking “my goal is to X” I’ve found out that its the same goal as some other owners so its quickly defeated.

I’ve played under different formats over the years and with different groups of owners and in my opinion the most important lesson is to know your league. It’s similar to the talk you hear from players who have a new stadium- “we don’t know how the park is going to play yet”. I’ve found that you can take advantage of your league by knowing that a certain type of player is undervalued, for example. That knowledge is the best strategy to take advantage of.

One other thing that I’ve never seen a great discussion about- what is your opinion on whether you have to SEE a player in order to determine their value? I do not watch every MLB game, not even all the games for a single team. Therefore I know there are players that I own that I’ve never seen before. For example, two years ago I read a comment on a website about Juan Rivera possibly losing playing time in the near future, so I quickly traded him for the hot-hitting Casey Blake who was hovering near .380 at the time. Then a week or two later I caught a glimpse of Juan Rivera while watching a game and I was floored! That guy looked like a huge powerful player and the way he swung the bat made me feel like a fool for trading him. I still think of him as Vlad junior. What are your thoughts? Do you need to see the players to validate your opinion of their value/potential?

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