The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

On Wednesday, March 12th, I appeared as a guest on The Sporting Life with Jay Cruz on HealthyLife.net discussing fantasy baseball.

To hear my interview with Jay, click on the link above to go to HealthyLife’s homepage. Look for the blue “Archives” button near the top of the page, then click on it. Scroll about halfway down the page to the “Sports and Conscious Business” section, then click on the link for Jay Cruz’ show, The Sporting Life. You’ll find my interview listed by its air date (3/12).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

If you’re in the New York City area, stop by Mickey Mantle’s Restaurant this evening - I’ll be appearing on a Blog Talk Radio show being broadcast live! The show will be co-hosted by Mark Healey of Gotham Baseball Magazine, and Paul Greco and Lenny Melnick from Melnick and Greco Fantasy Sports.

Mickey Mantle’s is located at 42 Central Park South (59th Street near corner of 6th Avenue) in Manhattan. The show takes place from 6-9 pm; I’m scheduled to be on from 6:40-6:55pm to discuss 2008 fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, and rookies to watch.

Please stop by the show if you’re in the area - I’d love to meet you!

The Sherpa

Here’s my review of the Pitchers’ projections available at MLB.com. I’ll use the benchmarks laid out in my 3/17 post on Pitchers.

1. Total Innings Pitched (IP) for all Pitchers, all teams - can’t judge this; unfortunately, the MLB.com summary projections don’t include a Pitcher’s projected IP.
2. Total IP for a team - see previous item.
3. Total #Wins = 2,180, which is less than the benchmark of 2,430.
4. The #Saves as a percentage of the #Wins (1,237/2,180) = 56.7%, which is greater than the range of 49-52%. If the #Wins were corrected (i.e. - Total #Wins set to 2,430), the #Saves as a percentage of the #Wins (1,237/2,430) would be 50.9%, which is within the benchmark range of 1,190-1,265.
5. Total #Earned Runs allowed - see item #1.
6. Overall Earned Run Average (ERA) - since IP for individual Pitchers aren’t readily available, I used Strikeouts as a proxy for IP. I realize this proxy leaves something to be desired, but even so, the resulting estimate of 4.03 is significantly lower than the benchmark of 4.25-4.50.
7. Total Walks Allowed - can’t judge this easily, since the Walks Allowed are not included in the summary projections.
8. Total Hits Allowed - can’t judge this easily either, since Hits Allowed are not included in the summary projections.
9. Aggregate Walks+Hits per IP (WHIP) - again, using Strikeouts as a proxy for IP, the overall WHIP estimate is 1.33, which is below the benchmark of 1.37-1.41

Conclusion - MLB.com’s Pitchers’ projections are more difficult to generalize than their corresponding Hitters’ projections. Closers will be overvalued relative to Starting Pitchers because Saves are within the benchmark range, while Wins are understated. Both the ERA and WHIP appear to be low in aggregate. When viewed as a complete set, the MLB.com projections overstate the relative value of Hitters, while understating the relative value of Starting Pitchers, and, to a lesser extent, Closers.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Today I’ll start my series of reviews of several widely available sources of 2008 fantasy baseball projections. First up are the Hitters’ projections available at MLB.com. I’ll use the benchmarks laid out in my 3/17 post on Hitters.

1. Total At-Bats (AB) for all Hitters, all teams - can’t judge this; unfortunately, the MLB.com summary projections don’t include a Hitter’s projected AB.
2. Total AB for a team - see previous item.
3. Total Hits - see item #1.
4. Overall Batting Average - since AB for individual Hitters aren’t readily available, I used Runs Scored as a proxy for AB. This proxy suggests an overall Batting Average of .280, which is greater than the benchmark of .268-.273.
5. Total Home Runs = 6,592, which is significantly above the benchmark of 4,900-5,400.
6. Total Runs Batted In = 27,510, which is significantly above the benchmark of 21,000-22,000.
7. Total Runs Scored = 28,669, which is significantly above the benchmark of 22,000-23,000.
8. Total Stolen Bases = 3,664, which is significantly above the benchmark of 2,500-3,000.

Conclusion - MLB.com’s Hitters’ projections, when viewed as a whole, appear to be a set of “Best Case” projections rather than “Expected Case” projections. While that may serve you well at the end of your draft/auction when you’re trolling for sleepers, relying on a “Best Case” set of projections throughout your draft will likely result in your drafting mediocre players too soon or paying too much for them in an auction.

I’ll look at MLB.com’s Pitchers’ projections later today.

The Sherpa

As I mentioned in my previous post, I’ll be evaluating several popular, widely-available sets of fantasy baseball projections over the next few days. The goal is to determine whether each set of projections can serve as a realistic base for ranking players for your fantasy baseball draft or auction.

Here are some of the benchmarks based on 2005-07 MLB data that I’ll be using to evaluate the Pitchers’ projections:

1. Total Innings Pitched (IP) for all Pitchers, all Teams should be in the range of 43,200-43,400.
2. Total IP for a Team should range from 1,400-1,500.
3. The number of Wins and the number of Losses should both equal 2,430.
4. The number of Saves as a percentage of the number of Wins should range from 49%-52%, implying that the number of Saves should range from 1,190-1,265.
5. The number of Earned Runs Allowed should be in the range of 20,500-21,750.
6. The overall Earned Run Average (ERA) should be in the range of 4.25-4.50. Contrary to “conventional wisdom”, the difference between National League and American League ERA has been negligible over the past 2-3 years.
7. Total Walks Allowed should be in the range of 15,000-16,250.
8. Total Hits Allowed should range from 44,000-45,250.
9. Aggregate Walks + Hits per Inning Pitch (aka “WHIP or “Ratio”) should be in the range of 1.37-1.41.

As I stated in the “Hitting Benchmarks” post, if the set of projections underlying the player rankings/dollar values you’re using is inaccurate, then the resulting player rankings/dollar values are also likely to be inaccurate. Again, this problem will probably not be apparent to you in the early stages of your draft/auction - you’ll probably find that all projections for the top-tier players will be reasonably close to one another.

However, once you reach the second and third-tier players (where fantasy drafts/auctions are won and lost), it’s imperative to be working from a reasonable set of projections. If you aren’t, chances are you’ll be significantly overstating or understating a player’s true worth.

If it turns out you are working from an inaccurate set of projections, you have 2 options: (1) Hope/pray that everyone else in your league is also working from a set of projections that’s at least as inaccurate as the one you’re using, or (2) Throw away your current set of player projections/rankings/values and look for a better alternative. Again, over the next few days my goal is to be able to help you do just that!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Over the next few days I’ll be evaluating several popular, widely-available sets of fantasy baseball projections; the goal is to determine whether each set of projections can serve as a realistic base for ranking players for your fantasy baseball draft or auction.

Here are some of the benchmarks based on 2005-07 MLB data that I’ll be using to evaluate the Hitters’ projections (note: these figures exclude hitting stats for Pitchers):

1. Total At-Bats (AB) for all Hitters, all Teams should be in the range of 161,000-163,000.
2. Total AB for a Team should range from 5,100-5,400 for an NL team and from 5,400-5,800 for an AL team.
3. Total Hits should range from 43,000-45,000.
4. Overall Batting Average should be in the range of .268-.273.
5. Total Home Runs should range from 4,900 to 5,400.
6. Total Runs Batted In should be in the range of 21,000-22,000.
7. Total Runs Scored should range from 22,000-23,500.
8. Total Stolen Bases should be in the range of 2,500-3,000.

Why does this matter? Simply put, if the aggregate projections underlying the player rankings/dollar values you’re using aren’t consistent with recent baseball actual results, there’s a good chance the player rankings/dollar values you’re using will also be inaccurate in aggregate. This problem will probably not be apparent to you in the early stages of your draft/auction - you’ll probably find that all projections for the top-tier players will be reasonably close to one another.

However, once you reach the second and third-tier players (where fantasy drafts/auctions are won and lost), it’s imperative to be working from a reasonable set of projections. If you aren’t, chances are you’ll be significantly overstating or understating a player’s true worth.

If it turns out you are working from an inaccurate set of projections, you have 2 options: (1) Hope/pray that everyone else in your league is also working from a set of projections that’s at least as inaccurate as the one you’re using, or (2) Throw away your current set of player projections/rankings/values and look for a better alternative. In the next few days I hope to be able to help you do just that!

I’ll post the Pitching benchmarks shortly.

The Sherpa

I’ve received several questions recently regarding how often I update the Preseason Player Projections & Rankings. Obviously, if I’m railing against inaccuracies in other sets of projections, then I don’t want to be sitting on an outdated set of projections myself. So, I do my best to update projected changes in playing time (due to transactions, injuries, and position battles) within 24 hours of when the relevant information becomes available. As we get closer to the end of Spring Training and teams finalize their Opening Day rosters, adhering to this 24-hour standard will become more challenging. However, in my mind at least, when you become my customer, you have a right to expect up-to-date information, and I’ll make every effort to keep that promise. If the volume of transactions makes that unfeasible, I will prioritize the updates based on the player’s projected “fantasy relevance” (i.e. - I would update projections for Alex Rodriguez or Johan Santana before I would updated projections for Brad Ausmus or Odalis Perez).

Here are some of the players whose projections I’ve updated within the last couple of days: John Lackey (reduced GP due to injury), Kyle Lohse (added to the database), Sergio Mitre (reduced GP due to injury), Rocco Baldelli (removed from the database), Casey Janssen (removed from the database), Horacio Ramirez (removed from the database), and Doug Mirabelli (removed from the database).

Good luck to those of you with a draft or auction this weekend!

The Sherpa

When many fantasy baseball team owners get their hands on a set of player projections and rankings for the upcoming season, their first reaction is to perform a quick check on the projected stats for a few big-name Hitters and Pitchers. If these projections seem reasonable, the team owner concludes she/he is working with a reasonable set of projections and can proceed to plan their draft/auction strategy based on them.

This process may be a reasonable first step, but it is by no means an effective way to gauge the overall validity of a set of projections. In order to determine whether the set of projections you’re working with make sense from a “big picture” standpoint, I challenge you to ask the following questions:

1. Do the total number of At-Bats for Hitters and Innings Pitched for Pitchers make sense when compared to recent seasons’ results?
2. Do the total number of Pitchers’ Wins and Pitchers’ Losses equal each other? Do they both equal the total number of games in a season (2,430)?
3. Do the overall Batting Average and number of Home Runs/Runs Batted In/Stolen Bases make sense for Hitters?
4. Do the overall Earned Run Average, WHIP, and number of Saves make sense for Pitchers?
5. Do the number of Runs Scored by Hitters and the number of Runs Allowed by Pitchers balance?

If the answer to any of these questions is “No”, the player values and rankings based on the offending set of projections will be of little use to you during your draft or auction once you get past the big-name players.

During the rest of this week I will be putting some of the more popular/readily available sets of fantasy baseball projections under the microscope to see whether they pass muster. Since fair is fair, I will also subject my own projections to these tests.

Stay tuned!

The Sherpa

Hi there,

Just wanted to let everyone in Sherpaville know that I’ll be appearing on Jay Cruz’ Internet radio program (The Sporting Life) this Wednesday (3/12) to talk about fantasy baseball. I’ll be on live with Jay for approximately an hour beginning at 2pm Pacific/5pm Eastern.

You can listen live at HealthyLife.net, or you can listen afterwards by clicking on HealthyLife’s “Archives” button (on the homepage). I’m also in the process of having audio capability added to the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website - as soon as that happens, I’ll post the file from the show!

Hope you’re able to tune in!

The Sherpa

So, you’re in a 12-team 5×5 Mixed league snake draft, you pick towards the end of the first round, and Albert Pujols is still available. Do you bite?

I say no, unless you have the 12th pick and can immediately make your second selection. The adage about “high risk, high reward” doesn’t apply to fantasy baseball drafts - you must, must, must get a “sure thing” with your first-round pick. That means identifying players with known injuries in Spring Training and avoiding them like the plague in the first round. Before the news of the extent of Pujols’ injuries came out, I based my projections for him on the assumption that he would play 155 games this season. At that point I would have considered him with the 9th pick, factoring in the Position Scarcity analysis that underlies my player rankings. After the news came out, I scaled back my assumption to 145 games, and even that may be too optimistic. If Pujols’ health concerns persist and the Cardinals are as bad as I think they’ll be this year (i.e. - they’re mathematically eliminated in late August/early September), I think it’s definitely possible that the Cardinals and Pujols would mutually agree that it’s in their best long-term interests to cut short his season (ala Dwyane Wade).

So, why would I argue that Pujols is a good pick with the last pick in the first round or the first pick in the second round, but not a few picks before that? At that point I think the risk vs. reward scale tips back in favor of the reward, so I’d be willing to take that chance. I wouldn’t pair Pujols with Johan Santana - you need to get at least one “sure thing” Hitter in the first two rounds. However, if I could pair Pujols with a first-round pick of Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Chase Utley, Jose Reyes, or Jimmy Rollins, then I would consider the reward to outweigh the risk. But even if I did that, I wouldn’t necessarily commit to keeping Pujols for the whole season. Suppose Pujols gets off to a strong start, and the concerns about his injury subside temporarily. In that case I would look to package him with someone else on my team who’s off to an unsustainable start in return for two above-average players who help me in my weaker categories.

Until next time,

The Sherpa