The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

So, you convinced yourself that this year was going to be different. Rather than grab a second Closer before anyone else in your league’s draft or auction, you decided to wait. And wait. And wait some more. Finally, when you couldn’t take it any more, you grabbed Eric Gagne, Jason Isringhausen, or Trevor Hoffman to go along with the top-shelf Closer you claimed earlier in the proceedings.

Now what? Gagne has a 6.17 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 11 2/3 Innings Pitched to go along with his 7 Saves and 15 Strikeouts. Isringhausen has a 6.55 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP in 11 Innings Pitched to offset his 8 Saves and 9 Strikeouts. Both of them look positively stellar in comparison to Hoffman, who has a 7.27 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 8 2/3 Innings Pitched and has somehow managed to rack up 4 Saves and 8 Strikeouts along the way.

Just how much will these lower-tier Closers impact your pitching staff over the course of a season? Obviously, if they lose their jobs, the decision is pretty much made for you – it’s time to cut bait. However, suppose that doesn’t happen – what should you do then? Do the Saves these Closers rack up outweigh the damage they do to your team’s ERA and WHIP?

Let’s assume that you’re playing in a league that requires a 9-man pitching staff. Suppose that you go with 6 Starting Pitchers, 2 Closers, and 1 Middle Reliever. Let’s assume that your Starting Pitchers average 180 Innings Pitched, 14 Wins, 160 Strikeouts, a 4.00 ERA, and a 1.32 WHIP. Let’s assume that your Middle Reliever pitches 80 Innings with 3 Wins, 6 Saves, 70 Strikeouts, a 2.50 ERA, and a 1.10 WHIP. Let’s also assume that your stud Closer will wind up with 75 Innings Pitched, 3 Wins, 40 Saves, 75 Strikeouts, a 2.25 ERA, and a 1.00 WHIP.

Finally, let’s assume that your consolation-prize Closer has 70 Innings Pitched, 3 Wins, 35 Saves, 60 Strikeouts, a 4.50 ERA, and a 1.40 WHIP. Quite honestly, any of you who currently own Gagne, Isringhausen, or Hoffman would gladly settle for that contribution – you might even be downright ecstatic!

Your pitching staff’s year-end totals with your second Closer: 1,305 Innings Pitched; 93 Wins; 81 Saves; 1,165 Strikeouts; a 3.83 ERA, and a 1.292 WHIP.

Suppose that at the beginning of the season, instead of picking your bargain-bin Closer, you had selected a second Middle Reliever with identical stats to your first one. Then your year-end team totals would look like this: 1,315 Innings Pitched; 93 Wins; 52 Saves; 1,175 Strikeouts; 3.72 ERA; and 1.275 WHIP. That’s a net loss of 29 Saves, but a gain of 10 Strikeouts, an ERA improvement of 0.12, and a WHIP improvement of 0.017. In a 12-team league you’d probably give up approximately 6 Saves points, compared to a gain of 1 point (maybe) in Strikeouts, a 3-4 point gain in ERA, and a 2-3 point gain in WHIP. It’s more or less a wash.

Now suppose that at the beginning of the season, instead of picking your bargain-bin Closer, you had selected a seventh Starting Pitcher with identical stats to your first six (easier said than done!). Then your year-end team totals would look like this: 1,415 Innings Pitched; 104 Wins; 46 Saves; 1,265 Strikeouts; 3.82 ERA; and 1.291 WHIP. In a 12-team league you’d probably gain 4-5 points in Wins and 2-3 points in Strikeouts, offset by a 5-6 point loss in Saves. Again, I’d call it a wash.

This is just one admittedly contrived example, but the conclusion here has wider applicability: even with all the hand-wringing over the supposed harm a below-average Closer does to your team’s pitching stats, as long as your second Closer is able to hold onto his job for the course of the season and rack up the Saves, the net impact of his contributions (or lack thereof) to your team will be negligible.

And cheer up - at least you didn’t pick Joe Borowski or Manny Corpas!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

In yesterday’s post I looked at several indicators that you can use to quickly evaluate whether a hitter’s unexpectedly hot/cold start warrants an early-season roster move. Today, I’ll do the same for a couple of pitchers.

We’ll use Cliff Lee as an example of a fast-starter and C.C. Sabathia (last night’s strong start not withstanding) as an example of a slow-starter.

Let’s look at the following indicators:

1. Strikeout rate (per 9 Innings Pitched) = 9*(K/IP)
2. Strikeout to Walk ratio = K/BB
3. Batting Average Against on Balls in Play (BAABIP) = (H-HR)/[(3*IP)+H-HR-K]

Let’s look at Cliff Lee first:

1. Strikeout rate
   • 2008 (22 2/3 IP) = 7.94
   • 2007 (97 1/3 IP) = 6.10
   • 2006 (200 2/3 IP) = 5.79
   • 2005 (202 IP) = 6.37
2. Strikeout to Walk ratio
   • 2008 = 10.00
   • 2007 = 1.83
   • 2006 = 2.22
   • 2005 = 2.75
3. Batting Average Against on Balls in Play
   • 2008 = .145
   • 2007 = .296
   • 2006 = .292
   • 2005 = .271

Lee’s 2008 K/9 rate is significantly higher than it was even in 2005, when he finished 4th in the American League Cy Young voting. What really jumps out is the high 2008 K/BB rate, which is unsustainable over the course of a season. Combine that with a healthy dose of luck (i.e. - a BAABIP which is roughly half of what you would expect from Lee over the course of a full season), and you have all the makings of the pitching equivalent of a supernova. If you currently own Lee, I would suggest sending out trade feelers to see if you can shore up weaknesses in other areas of your roster.

Now let’s look at Sabathia:

1. Strikeout rate
   • 2008 (24 IP) = 9.38
   • 2007 (241 IP) = 7.80
   • 2006 (192 2/3 IP) = 8.03
   • 2005 (196 2/3 IP) = 7.37
2. Strikeout to Walk ratio
   • 2008 = 1.56
   • 2007 = 5.65
   • 2006 = 3.91
   • 2005 = 2.60
3. Batting Average Against on Balls in Play
   • 2008 = .397
   • 2007 = .297
   • 2006 = .289
   • 2005 = .279

I’ve read a number of fantasy sportswriters who’ve expressed the opinion that Sabathia’s heavy workload from the past is finally catching up with him. Others point to Sabathia’s girth as the source of his troubles. Some even question whether he can handle the pressure of pitching with a potentially huge free agent contract waiting at the end of the season. While all of these concerns sound good in theory, I believe they are all much ado about nothing. In fact, I wish the people writing this drivel were playing in one of my leagues so that I could offer them a trade for Sabathia (Cliff Lee, anyone?).

Like Lee, Sabathia’s strikeout rate this season is higher than it has been the last three years, which suggests that it will come down. However, unlike Lee, Sabathia’s long-term strikeout rate is still somewhat better than the league average. The key to Sabathia’s early-season struggles is the low strikeout to walk ratio, which is the result of a much higher than expected walk rate. You can speculate all you want as to the cause of the higher walk rate (e.g. - trying too hard to strike people out, doesn’t have a good feel for his pitches in the cool weather, etc.), but I will still give much more weight to his results of his last three years of work rather than the results of his first five starts this season. Finally, Sabathia’s BAABIP is almost 100 points higher than it is likely to be at the end of a full season, which also suggests that he’s had a run of “bad luck” on balls put in play against him.

While the results for the four players I’ve analyzed over the last two days may be of particular interest to you (feel free to remind me at the end of the season if I’m wrong about any of them), my primary goal in performing this analysis is to give you a set of indicators that can be applied to any player you’re interested in to compare their 2008 season-to-date results with their historical results. Hopefully, by doing so you’ll be able to differentiate between the real deals from the fantasy fakeouts.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

It’s just over 3 weeks into the 26-week baseball season, and some fantasy baseball owners are already hitting the panic button.

Which of the following moves, if any, would you make at this point in the season if you were playing in a mixed league that uses the standard 5 hitting categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB) and 5 pitching categories (W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP)?

• Drop Jose Guillen for Gabe Kapler
• Drop Edwin Encarnacion for Fred Lewis
• Drop Carlos Delgado for Nelson Figueroa
• Drop Francisco Liriano for Vicente Padilla

Amazingly, one owner in a 12-team league I play in has made all of those moves within the last week or so. I’ve never met him (we have an on-line draft), but I’d bet that he’s a Type A personality. He’s currently in 5th place in our league, but my guess is that he won’t be staying there for long if the above transactions are indicative of the way he’ll be managing his team this season. Vulture that I am, I swooped in and grabbed both Encarnacion (dropping Franklin Gutierrez) and Liriano (dropping Andy Sonnanstine) mere nanoseconds after I noticed their names on our league’s free agent list.

So, how should you evaluate a player’s unexpectedly hot/cold start in deciding whether to make a roster move? Let’s look at hitters first.

For hitters we’ll use Nate McLouth as an example of a fast-starter and David Ortiz as an example of a slow-starter. We’ll look at the following indicators:

1. Strikeout rate = K/AB
2. Walk rate = BB/AB
3. Batting average on balls in play (aka BABIP) = (H-HR)/(AB-HR-K)

Let’s look at McLouth first:

1. Strikeout rate
   • 2008 (80 AB) = 12.5%
   • 2007 (329 AB) = 23.4%
   • 2006 (270 AB) = 21.9%
   • 2005 (109 AB) = 18.3%
2. Walk rate
   • 2008 = 11.3%
   • 2007 = 11.9%
   • 2006 = 6.7%
   • 2005 = 2.8%
3. Batting average on balls in play
   • 2008 = .403
   • 2007 = .301
   • 2006 = .275
   • 2005 = .274

It appears that McLouth is developing more patience at that plate as his career progresses. His increased willingness to take a walk suggests that pitchers realize they now have to throw strikes to get him out. His keys to future success: can he maintain his lower strikeout rate (unlikely) and high BABIP (even more unlikely) over the course of a full season? If you own McLouth, I’d suggest seeing what other owners in your league might be willing to part with in a trade in exchange for McLouth. If you have the opportunity to address several shortcomings on your current roster by trading McLouth, I’d do it.

Now let’s look at Ortiz:

1. Strikeout rate
   • 2008 (79 AB) = 20.3%
   • 2007 (549 AB) = 18.8%
   • 2006 (558 AB) = 21.0%
   • 2005 (601 AB) = 20.6%
2. Walk rate
   • 2008 = 13.9%
   • 2007 = 20.2%
   • 2006 = 21.3%
   • 2005 = 17.0%
3. Batting average on balls in play
   • 2008 = .197
   • 2007 = .358
   • 2006 = .274
   • 2005 = .309

Ortiz’ lower walk rate this season suggests that he is swinging at a few more bad pitches than usual. However, his strikeout rate is in line with his historical averages, which suggests that he is putting more balls in play rather than striking out more. His keys to future success: can he increase his walk rate so that it’s in line with his historical rates (likely)? Will his luck improve on balls that he puts in play, resulting in a higher BABIP (even more likely)? If you own Ortiz, hang on - he’ll be fine; in fact, I’d be shocked if he finishes the season with a batting average lower than .280. Conversely, if you don’t currently own Ortiz, send out a trade feeler to his current owner and see whether you might be able to pry him loose for something less than full value.

I’ll perform a similar analysis on a pair of pitchers (C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee) in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Just a friendly reminder that today is Patriots’ Day in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, which means the Red Sox have their traditional 11:05 am Eastern start. Make sure to get your Red Sox and Rangers in your lineups before the deadline!

Also, the Blue Jays and Tigers have a 12:37 pm Eastern start today, so again, make sure to set your lineup in time for your league’s deadline today!

The Sherpa

One of the more challenging (and entertaining) aspects of managing a fantasy baseball roster is the ongoing need to juggle your roster. Perhaps you’re frantically scanning your league’s free agent/waiver wire for a short-term fill-in for your star player who just landed on the DL. Maybe you’re just looking to upgrade the fringes of your roster, or you’re seeking a player to fill a potential hole in your line-up that will be created if you pull the trigger on that trade you’re considering. Regardless of your motivation, the following is The Sherpa’s list of players who may still be available in your league.

I’m assuming that you’ve already missed out on the following list of players who may not have been on a roster at the beginning of the season: (NL) Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Nate McLouth, Jeff Keppinger; (AL) Brian Bannister, Zack Greinke, Carlos Gomez, Rafael Betancourt, and Evan Longoria. If any of these players are still available in your league, stop reading this NOW, open a new browser session, go to your league’s website, and put in a claim for one or more of them . . . Done? Good, now feel free to review the names below, which are listed first by position, then by league (for the benefit of those of you who play in NL-only or AL-only leagues):

Catchers
AL: Shawn Riggans, Miguel Olivo, Kelly Shoppach, Jeff Matthis, Gregg Zaun.

NL: Brian Schneider, Chris Iannetta, Ronny Paulino.

First Basemen
AL: Ben Broussard, Ross Gload, Kevin Millar, Eric Hinske, Sean Casey.

NL: Joey Votto, Dan Ortmeier.

Second Basemen
AL: Brendon Harris, Asdrubal Cabrera, Mark Grudzielanek, Jose Lopez.

NL: Eugenio Velez, Jayson Nix, Tad Iguchi, Ray Durham, Adam Kennedy.

Shortstops
AL: David Eckstein, Bobby Crosby, Yuniesky Betancourt, Erick Aybar.

NL: Cristian Guzman, Clint Barmes.

Third Basemen
AL: Mike Lamb, Jack Hannahan, Marco Scutaro.

NL: Jorge Cantu, Nomar Garciaparra, Jose Castillo.

Outfielders
AL: Carlos Quentin, Franklin Gutierrez, Jose Guillen, Jonny Gomes, Jack Cust (only in leagues that use OBP instead of AVG!), David Murphy, Ryan Sweeney, Travis Buck, Justin Ruggiano, Emil Brown, David DeJesus.

NL: Ryan Church, Angel Pagan, Fred Lewis, Matt Diaz, Scott Hairston, Skip Schumaker, Ryan Ludwick, Jayson Werth, Jim Edmonds, John Bowker.

Designated Hitters
AL: Mike Sweeney

Starting Pitchers
AL: John Danks, Edwin Jackson, Dana Eveland, Jeff Niemann, Kevin Slowey, Chad Gaudin, Jason Hammel.

NL: Micah Owings, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Olsen, Tom Glavine, Wandy Rodriguez, Shawn Hill, Jonathan Sanchez, Kevin Correia, Justin Germano, Zach Duke, Jamie Moyer, Nelson Figueroa.

Relief Pitchers
AL: Scot Shields, Jeremy Accardo, Rafael Perez, Santiago Cassilla (the Pitcher formerly known as Jairo Garcia), Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Mark Lowe.

NL: Heath Bell, Manny Acosta, Tony Pena, Duaner Sanchez, Jonathan Broxton, Brian Fuentes, Jared Burton, Matt Lindstrom, Will Ohman, Royce Ring.

Some of these players have a bright future ahead of them, while some are no more than band-aids to be used for as short a time as possible, then discarded. The key point is that unless your league uses average-based stats only, you can’t afford to go any length of time, especially this early in the season, without accumulating At-Bats and Innings Pitched.

Finally, I’ve omitted the names of injured players who may be helpful in the near future, such as Al Reyes, who is quite likely the only Pitcher in MLB history to get tasered one day, then record a victory the next. He subsequently went on the Disabled List with an injury that’s apparently unrelated to his being tasered. Rumor has it the Cincinnati Bengals have already called to inquire about Reyes’ availability.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

It happens every year, just like the swallows returning to San Juan Capistrano. A previously undistinguished hitter gets off to a fast start, and sportswriters speculate on whether a major league hitter will ever be able to hit .400 for an entire season again (I believe the answer is “no”, but that’s another topic for another day). If the same hitter were to hit .400 for 15 games in the middle of the season rather than at the beginning of the season, most of us would barely raise an eyebrow. However, due to what I referred to in a previous post as “Tuffy Rhodes Syndrome“, baseball fans tend to give a disproportionate amount of weight to events at the start of the season.

This year’s fast starters include A.J. Pierzynski (.421 as of this morning), Jason Kendall (.405), Angel Pagan (.385), Nate McLouth (.383), Luke Scott (.375), and Kurt Suzuki (.370). Obviously, none of these hitters will have a batting average anywhere near .400 when the season ends. But how many of them will finish with even a .300 average? Again, the answer could very well be zero.

So, how should you go about forecasting a batting average for the remainder of the season? Let’s use Pierzynski as an example. Suppose that going into the season you expected Pierzynski to hit .270 for the season. How should that expectation be combined with the .421 he’s hit through approximately the first 10% of the season? I’ve read a number of fantasy sportswriters’ articles on this subject, and their approaches usually fall into one of 2 categories: (1) expect Pierzynski to finish the season with his expected average of .270 (which implies that his average for the remaining 90% of the season will be .253); (2) expect Pierzynski to hit .270 for the rest of the season (which implies that his batting average for the season will be .285).

I disagree with both of these approaches. The first is an example of what statisticians refer to as the Gambler’s Fallacy, which means that (supposedly) independent events (such as future at-bats) are entirely dependent on past events. Andy Behrens, a very thought-provoking and entertaining fantasy sportswriter for Yahoo, had a great description of the Gambler’s Fallacy in a post he made yesterday. The second approach goes too far in the opposite direction, assuming that what a hitter has done season-to-date has zero predictive value in forecasting what he’s likely to do for the remainder of the season.

I suggest a third approach that combines what the hitter was expected to do with what the hitter has actually done in order to forecast what he’s likely to do for the remainder of the season. There are several possible weighting schemes, but for the sake of simplicity, I’ll go with a linear weighting scheme (i.e. - if the season is 10% complete, the hitter’s actual results should receive 10% weight, and his expected results should receive 90% weight). Applying this approach to the Pierzynski batting average example suggests that a reasonable forecast for Pierzysnki’s batting average for the rest of the season is .285 (which implies that his batting average for the season will be .299).

Some may still argue that .270 is a better forecast than .285. Let’s look at another example, this one from last season. If you expected Andruw Jones to hit .260 for the season, but he’s hitting just .211 at the All-Star break, would you still expect him to hit .260 for the remainder of the season? Probably not. Since the All-Star break occurs after roughly 55% of the season has been played, I would have forecast a rest-of-season average for Jones of .233 (= 55%*.211 + 45%*.260). Jones actually hit .236 for the rest of the season. I realize that one cherry-picked example doesn’t prove my argument, but hopefully, you get the idea.

How can you use this information to your advantage in your fantasy leagues? People often talk of wanting to “sell high and buy low” with respect to making early-season trades, but do you actually have the backbone required to do so? If so, congratulations - you’re probably well on your way to scooping up some above-average players at below-average prices. If not, re-read the above, pick some real-life examples from the current season, and follow them.

Others may have an easier time selling high on a fast-starting player than buying low on a slow-starting player. Who are some of this year’s “slow starters” who may be ideal buy-low candidates? C.C. Sabathia and Roy Oswalt come to mind immediately on the pitching side, while Carl Crawford, Alfonso Soriano, Robinson Cano, and Ryan Braun are among the hitters off to sub-par starts. A savvy team owner will rebuff your attempts to trade for one of these players, but some may be willing to part with these players for a below-market offer.

I’ll leave you with an example I witnessed last season. A friend had Alex Rodriguez on his team, but was struggling in the pitching categories. His league required that all trades be balanced from a position standpoint (i.e. - you couldn’t trade a Third Baseman straight up for a Pitcher). In late May/early June he took advantage of a fellow owner’s willingness to sell low on Garrett Atkins and buy high on the fast-starting Boof Bonser, trading A-Rod and Boof Bonser in exchange for Garrett Atkins and Johan Santana. As you might expect, my friend was able to climb a number of places in his league’s standings after pulling off that trade.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

In a post earlier today I gave my tips for spending your Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) wisely, along with recommended spending patterns for those with a $100 FAAB.

For those of you who play with a $1,000 FAAB budget, here is how I’d recommend structuring your spending over the course of the season:

• (End of) Week 1 - spend $77; $77 spent year-to-date; $923 remaining.
• Week 2 - $73; $150; $850.
• Week 3 - $71; $221; $779.
• Week 4 - $68; $289; $711.
• Week 5 - $65; $354; $646.
• Week 6 - $62; $416; $584.
• Week 7 - $59; $475; $525.
• Week 8 - $55; $530; $470.
• Week 9 - $52; $582; $418.
• Week 10 - $49; $631; $369.
• Week 11 - $46; $677; $323.
• Week 12 - $43; $720; $280.
• Week 13 - $40; $760; $240.
• Week 14 - $37; $797; $203.
• Week 15 - $34; $831; $169.
• Week 16 - $31; $862; $138.
• Week 17 - $28; $890; $110.
• Week 18 - $25; $915; $85.
• Week 19 - $22; $937; $63.
• Week 20 - $18; $955; $45.
• Week 21 - $15; $970; $30.
• Week 22 - $12; $982; $18.
• Week 23 - $9; $991; $9.
• Week 24 - $6; $997; $3.
• Week 25 - $3; $1,000; $0.

Here’s the recommended modification if your league has 26 claims instead of 25:

• (Start of) Week 1 - spend $74; $74 spent YTD; $926 remaining.
• Week 2 - $72; $146; $854.
• Week 3 - $68; $214; $786.
• Week 4 - $65; $279; $721.
• Week 5 - $63; $342; $658.
• Week 6 - $60; $402; $598.
• Week 7 - $57; $459; $541.
• Week 8 - $54; $513; $487.
• Week 9 - $51; $564; $436.
• Week 10 - $48; $612; $388.
• Week 11 - $46; $658; $342.
• Week 12 - $43; $701; $299.
• Week 13 - $40; $741; $259.
• Week 14 - $37; $778; $222.
• Week 15 - $34; $812; $198.
• Week 16 - $31; $843; $157.
• Week 17 - $28; $871; $129.
• Week 18 - $26; $897; $103.
• Week 19 - $23; $920; $80.
• Week 20 - $20; $940; $60.
• Week 21 - $17; $957; $43.
• Week 22 - $14; $971; $29.
• Week 23 - $11; $982; $18.
• Week 24 - $9; $991; $9.
• Week 25 - $6; $997; $3.
• Week 26 - $3; $1,000; $0.

Have a FAABulous weekend!

The Sherpa

Many fantasy baseball leagues allow teams to claim available players from the free agent list/waiver wire on a first come, first served basis. Others have a weekly claim process in which the team currently at the bottom of the standings gets the first shot at the list of available players. My favorite method of awarding players to teams is the Free Agent Acquisition Budget (aka FAAB). Each team gets the same FAAB dollars (usually $100 or $1,000) to spend as it sees fit over the course of the season.

While the use of the FAAB system makes all unclaimed players available to all teams, many owners struggle with the question of how to spend their FAAB dollars as wisely as possible. Should the spending be front-loaded? Should the FAAB dollars be spent evenly over the course of the year? Should the money be hoarded until later in the season in case an injury to a real-life player necessitates a fantasy replacement or results in a hot-shot minor leaguer getting a shot at The Show?

Here are the Sherpa’s tips for spending your FAAB wisely - I call them my “FAAB Five”:

1. Pace yourself, but not too much. All else being equal, a player acquired earlier in the season is much more likely to affect your place in the year-end standings than a player acquired later in the season. If your league allows claims at the end of each week of the season, then a player claimed at the end of Week 1 (i.e. - the first claim) should have approximately 25 times the impact of a player claimed at the end of Week 25 (i.e. - the last claim). Your FAAB spending should reflect this reality, keeping in mind that most leagues require whole dollar bids of at least $1.
2. Assess other teams’ current needs before you bid. If you need to find a replacement next week for the DL’d Michael Barrett, and you’re the only team in your league that needs to pick up a Catcher, don’t bid against yourself. The notable exceptions to this tip involve players with potential contributions in the Steals and Saves categories. At least one other team will more than likely submit a bid on a player who may contribute in either of these two categories, even if they have no immediate need from a roster position standpoint.
3. Monitor other teams’ FAAB spending throughout the year. Unless your league creates automated reports tracking and summarizing FAAB spending by team, this can be time-consuming, but it’s well worth the effort to know how much money other teams have left if you may be bidding against them for a player.
4. Balance your remaining FAAB with a player’s actual abilities. Do not spend 50% of your FAAB dollars (or even 25% for that matter) on a pitcher like Livan Hernandez, even if you are unlucky enough to have Pedro Martinez, Rich Harden, John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, and Doug Davis on your current pitching staff. Also, do not overspend for highly-touted rookies such as Clayton Kershaw, Evan Longoria, Colby Rasmus, Jay Bruce, etc. You may get lucky and get the next Ryan Braun or Hunter Pence, but you’re much more likely to get the next Nelson Cruz or Alex Escobar.
5. Timing is everything - don’t be afraid to speculate! If you have the roster positions to do so, speculate on desirable players before an injury, role change, or call-up from the minor leagues sends their value skyrocketing. Heath Bell, Rafael Betancourt, Tony Pena (the pitcher!), Carlos Quentin, and Joey Votto (if available in your league) will be much less expensive now than they will be if the players currently ahead of them on their respective teams’ depth charts falter or suffer an injury.

That said, the following is how I’d recommend spending a $100 FAAB if your league has 25 claims over the course of the season (i.e. - one at the end of each week starting with week 1). The week number is listed first, followed by the recommended amount to spend that week, followed by the recommended amount to spend year-to-date (YTD), and the implied FAAB dollars remaining. If you spend less than the recommended amount in a given week, then you will have more left over to spend in subsequent weeks, and vice versa.

• (End of) Week 1 - spend $8; $8 spent YTD, $92 remaining.
• Week 2 - $7; $15; $85.
• Week 3 - $7; $22; $78.
• Week 4 - $7; $29; $71.
• Week 5 - $6; $35; $65.
• Week 6 - $6; $41; $59.
• Week 7 - $6; $47; $53.
• Week 8 - $5; $52; $48.
• Week 9 - $5; $57; $43.
• Week 10 - $5; $62; $38.
• Week 11 - $5; $67; $33.
• Week 12 - $4; $71; $29.
• Week 13 - $4; $75; $25.
• Week 14 - $4; $79; $21.
• Week 15 - $3; $82; $18.
• Week 16 - $3; $85; $15.
• Week 17 - $3; $88; $12.
• Week 18 - $2; $90; $10.
• Week 19 - $2; $92; $8.
• Week 20 - $2; $94; $6.
• Week 21 - $2; $96; $4.
• Week 22 - $1; $97; $1.
• Week 23 - $1; $98; $1.
• Week 24 - $1; $99; $1.
• Week 25 - $1; $100; $0.

If your league also allows a claim before the first week of the season, here’s how I’d recommend adjusting your FAAB spending:

• (Start of) Week 1 - spend $7; $7 spent YTD, $93 remaining.
• Week 2 - $7; $14; $86.
• Week 3 - $7; $21; $79.
• Week 4 - $6; $27; $73.
• Week 5 - $6; $33; $67.
• Week 6 - $6; $39; $61.
• Week 7 - $6; $45; $55.
• Week 8 - $5; $50; $50.
• Week 9 - $5; $55; $45.
• Week 10 - $5; $60; $40.
• Week 11 - $5; $65; $35.
• Week 12 - $4; $69; $31.
• Week 13 - $4; $73; $27.
• Week 14 - $4; $77; $23.
• Week 15 - $3; $80; $20.
• Week 16 - $3; $83; $17.
• Week 17 - $3; $86; $14.
• Week 18 - $3; $89; $11.
• Week 19 - $2; $91; $9.
• Week 20 - $2; $93; $7.
• Week 21 - $2; $95; $5.
• Week 22 - $1; $96; $4.
• Week 23 - $1; $97; $3.
• Week 24 - $1; $98; $2.
• Week 25 - $1; $99; $1.
• Week 26 - $1; $100; $0.

I’ll post similar charts for a $1,000 FAAB later today.

Until then,

The Sherpa

With just over a week gone in the 2008 baseball season the sky is officially falling. Those who drafted/bought C.C. Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, Jason Bay, J.J. Putz, Robinson Cano etc., are wondering why these players are off to lousy starts. Those who drafted/bought Johnny Cueto, Nate McLouth, Mark Reynolds, Livan Hernandez, Jason Kendall, Kerry Woods, etc., are congratulating themselves on their foresight. So, is your team doing as well as expected? If not, what should you do now?

Predictably, many fantasy baseball columnists are now churning out (or, more likely, recycling from last year) columns on how 10 games is too small a sample size to draw conclusions, how you shouldn’t make any panic moves, blah, blah, blah. The more adventurous (or less lazy) among them actually develop lists of players off to hot/cold starts and offer their expert opinions on which players will continue to over/underwhelm, and which ones will “regress to the mean”. Very little of this is helpful to you in your effort to manage your fantasy team, and unless you’re reading these pieces for entertainment purposes, you’re better off ignoring them.

Put it another way - if these same players had the same results over a 10 game stretch in July or August, would you notice? Assuming you did, would you be concerned enough to make a change to your roster? Probably not. Unfortunately, human nature being what it is, we generally give more weight to events that take place at the very beginning of the season (aka “Tuffy Rhodes Syndrome“) or at the very end of the season (aka “Tom Glavine Syndrome“).

So, is there any reason to consider making trades this early in the season? Some experts advise fantasy team owners to sit on their hands until at least the end of May before hitting the “Submit Trade” button unless your roster is decimated by an injury. I disagree. In addition to injuries, there are at least two other reasons to explore potential trades even this early in the season: (1) To shore up weak categories, and (2) To take advantage of another team owner’s desire to make quick and sweeping changes.

First, let me explain what I mean by shoring up weak categories. Do not judge which categories you’re weak in by the results of the first 10 days of the season. Rather, go back to the analysis you did on your team immediately following your draft/auction. Trust the instincts you had at that time over the reaction you currently have now that 10 games are in the books. Before a draft/auction I set a goal to assemble a team that can finish in the top third in every category. If I can achieve that kind of balance, there’s a good chance I’ll finish at the top of my league. Of course, trades, free agent acquisitions, and waiver claims are also necessary to maintain/improve your team during the course of the season, but without a good draft/auction, you’re digging yourself a deep hole that’s almost impossible to climb out of. Identify your post-draft/auction weaknesses and address them as soon as you are able.

Regarding the second reason to make trades at this point in the season, there’s at least one owner in every league who seems to panic and make an early-season trade that ultimately hurts their team more than it helps. Don’t let that be you! Case in point - last year I saw someone who panicked after Garrett Atkins got off to a slow start, then traded Atkins and Johan Santana for Alex Rodriguez and the overachieving Boof Bonser. Not surprisingly, the owner who received Atkins and Santana finished much higher in the standings at the end of the year.

Not every trade will be that one-sided, nor should it be. I obviously want my team to be better after a trade than it was before the trade; however, I don’t want the other owner to have buyer’s remorse to the point where they’d never want to trade with me again. Here are my recommendations in executing a trade, particularly early in the season:

1. Assess your roster’s strengths and weaknesses. The earlier you are in the season, the more weight you should be giving a player’s preseason projected performance vs. his actual season-to-date performance. Of course, you need to be mindful of injuries and role changes (e.g. - everyday players who lose their jobs, newly-minted Closers, etc.)
2. Assess your leaguemates’ rosters’ strengths and weaknesses. The obvious goal in doing so is to find several potential trading partners (not just one!) whose strengths match up well with your weaknesses, and vice versa.
3. Send out trade feelers without making formal proposals. Initiate contact with specific owners. One of my fantasy sports pet peeves is owners who update their “Trading Block” page with a list of the categories they’re weak in, followed by a list of the players they’re willing to trade in order to improve their team (usually their weakest players). Sorry, I’m not trading you A-Rod and Carlos Zambrano for Pedro Feliz and Jose Contreras. As with most other things in life, you’re much more likely to get what you want if you ask for it rather than wait for it to come to you.
4. Sort through the responses to your trade feelers, then make a specific proposal where it makes sense to do so. Most trade talks will die after the previous step. If you do identify an owner who seems interested in discussing matters further, throw out an initial proposal. This should not be your “best offer”, but it should be good enough that the other owner isn’t insulted and actually has to give your offer some serious thought. It’s fine to pursue this stage with multiple owners simultaneously, even if you’re offering the same player(s) to several of them.
5. Negotiate. Expect the other owner(s) to counter your initial proposal - that’s part of the game. Keep a sense of humor about this - after all, we’re talking about fantasy sports here, not a life and death matter!
6. Assess your options. After some finite period of time you’ll get a good sense of whether owners are willing to pull the trigger on a deal or not. Trust your instincts here too - if your potential trading partner is constantly hedging or stalling, you’re probably better off moving on. Compare the impact of a trade to the impact of adding a player through a free agent bid or waiver wire claim.
7. Decide. While it may seem like a waste of time to come this far, then decide not to complete a deal, it’s not. The adage “sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make” applies just as much in the fantasy sports world as it does in the professional sports world. At the very worst you’ll receive a more accurate read on how your fellow owners value your players, as well as how they value their own players. You may unknowingly be sowing the seeds for a future trade. If you decide to complete a deal, don’t look back! If the player you’ve just traded away hits three home runs in a game or pitches a complete game shutout, let it go. You’re making the trade for the rest of the season, not just for the next game or two.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Here’s a review of my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa Pitchers’ projections. I’ll use the benchmarks laid out in my 3/17 post on Pitchers.

1. Total Innings Pitched (IP) for all Pitchers, all teams = 43,305, which is within the benchmark of 43,200-43,400.
2. Total IP for a Team ranges from 1,421 (St. Louis) to 1,476 (Boston), which is within the benchmark of 1,400-1,500.
3. Total Wins = 2,430, which matches the benchmark total. I did not project Pitchers’ losses.
4. The #Saves as a percentage of the #Wins (1,203/2,430) = 49.5%, which is within the benchmark of 49%-52%.
5. Total #Earned Runs Allowed = 21,804, which is slightly above the benchmark of 20,500-21,750.
6. Overall Earned Run Average (ERA) = 4.53, which is slightly above the benchmark of 4.25-4.50.
7. Total Walks Allowed = 14,441, which is below the benchmark of 15,000-16,250.
8. Total Hits Allowed = 43,154, which is below the benchmark of 44,000-45,250.
9. Aggregate Walks+Hits per IP (WHIP) = 1.33, which is below the benchmark range of 1.37-1.41.

Conclusion - The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa Pitchers’ projections are not perfect (when compared to the benchmarks). However, like their Hitting counterparts, these Pitchers’ projections can serve as a reasonable set of “Expected Case” projections. The other projections I’ve reviewed can be objectively labeled as “Best Case” projections. Again, the chief advantage of using a set of “Expected Case” projections over a set of “Best Case” projections is that the former will lead to a more realistic evaluation and ranking of the second and third-tier players who will likely determine your league’s champion.

Until next time,

The Sherpa