The Sherpa’s Crystal Ball - Take 2 (4/4/08)
I just recently finished updating my player projections for the 2008 season based on all the roster adjustments at the end of Spring Training. So, in a follow-up to a post on 2/19/08, I’ll take my second crack at projecting the 2008 baseball standings. For those who are interested, the projected win total for each team is based on the projected difference between the team’s Runs Scored and Runs Allowed. Again, this matters because starting with a realistic set of player projections that make sense in the aggregate is the most important step in assigning fantasy baseball value to individual players.
NL East
New York 89-73
Atlanta 85-77
Philadelphia 80-82
Florida 71-91
Washington 70-92
NL Central
Chicago 84-78
Milwaukee 84-78
Houston 79-83
Cincinnati 76-86
St. Louis 75-87
Pittsburgh 74-88
NL West
Los Angeles 85-77
Arizona 83-79
Colorado 79-83
San Diego 77-85
San Francisco 71-91
AL East
New York 95-67
Boston 89-73
Tampa Bay 82-80
Toronto 82-80
Baltimore 73-89
AL Central
Detroit 89-73
Cleveland 87-75
Chicago 84-78
Minnesota 82-80
Kansas City 79-83
AL West
Anaheim 90-72
Seattle 81-81
Oakland 79-83
Texas 76-86
The Angels 4-win reduction is the biggest change since my first set of predictions in February. Even so, none of my projected division winners have changed.
Teams that will be better than expected: Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Oakland.
Team that will be worse than expected: Philadelphia.
Here are my predictions for the playoffs - they’re based on the assumption that the team with the better overall pitching (i.e. - lower team ERA) will win (admittedly far from perfect!) in a short series:
1) NL Central Playoff - Cubs beat Brewers.
2) Division Playoff Round - Mets beat Cubs; Braves beat Dodgers; Yankees beat Tigers; Red Sox beat Angels
3) League Championship Playoff Round - Mets beat Braves; Red Sox beat Yankees.
4) World Series - Mets beat Red Sox.
Last week I was asked during a radio interview which teams would be facing off in the 2008 World Series - my response at that time was the Mets and the Angels. I’m now going with the Red Sox instead of the Angels because I didn’t realize at the time what a big impact losing Lackey for 1.5-2 months and Escobar (probably) for the year would make on the Angels’ pitching staff.
Until next time,
The Sherpa
Tags: aggregate projections, fantasy baseball draft, fantasy baseball projections, The Sherpa