The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Today I’ll turn the magnifying glass on my own projections to see how they stack up against the other projections I’ve reviewed previously. I’ll use the benchmarks laid out in my 3/17 post on Hitters.

1. Total At-Bats (AB) for all Hitters, all teams = 156,214, which is somewhat lower than the benchmark range of 161,000-163,000.
2. Total AB range for all teams = 4,737 (San Diego) to 5,049 (Dodgers) for NL teams, and 5,379 (Minnesota) to 5,780 (Detroit) for AL teams. The NL range is somewhat below the benchmark of 5,100-5,400 for NL teams, while the AL range is fairly consistent with the benchmark of 5,400-5,800 for AL teams. Note that these figures exclude projected ABs for Pitchers, which accounts for the different benchmarks for the two leagues.
3. Total Hits = 43,035, which is within the benchmark of 43,000-45,000.
4. Overall Batting Average = .276, which is above the benchmark of .268-.273.
5. Total Home Runs = 5,303, which is within the benchmark of 4,900-5,400.
6. Total Runs Batted In = 22,191, which is slightly above the benchmark of 21,000-22,000.
7. Total Runs Scored = 23,241, which is within the benchmark of 22,000-23,500.
8. Total Stolen Bases = 3,057, which is slightly above the benchmark of 2,500-3,000.

Conclusion - While the totals in some of the categories are outside the benchmark ranges, when viewed as a whole, the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa Hitters’ projections can serve as a reasonable set of “Expected Case” projections. The differences between an “Expected Case” and “Best Case” set of projections may not affect your choices early in your draft or auction, but by the time you get down to the second and third-tier players (i.e. - where fantasy championships are often won), the differences can become significant. “Best Case” projections will lead you to overvalue the second and third-tier players, which can lead you to draft them too soon or pay too much for them in an auction. Use a set of “Expected Case” projections (preferably the Sherpa’s!) whenever possible.

I’ll look at my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa Pitchers’ projections later today.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Tags: "Best Case" projections, "Expected Case" projections, fantasy baseball projections, fantasy baseball sherpa, Hitters' projections, Pitchers' projections, The Sherpa

This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 8th, 2008 at 10:12 am and is filed under fantasy baseball, fantasy baseball projections, fantasy baseball sherpa, fantasy baseball strategy, fantasy baseball strategy blog, position scarcity. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.