Projections Evaluation - Fantasy Baseball Sherpa Pitchers (4/8/08)
Here’s a review of my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa Pitchers’ projections. I’ll use the benchmarks laid out in my 3/17 post on Pitchers.
- Total Innings Pitched (IP) for all Pitchers, all teams = 43,305, which is within the benchmark of 43,200-43,400.
- Total IP for a Team ranges from 1,421 (St. Louis) to 1,476 (Boston), which is within the benchmark of 1,400-1,500.
- Total Wins = 2,430, which matches the benchmark total. I did not project Pitchers’ losses.
- The #Saves as a percentage of the #Wins (1,203/2,430) = 49.5%, which is within the benchmark of 49%-52%.
- Total #Earned Runs Allowed = 21,804, which is slightly above the benchmark of 20,500-21,750.
- Overall Earned Run Average (ERA) = 4.53, which is slightly above the benchmark of 4.25-4.50.
- Total Walks Allowed = 14,441, which is below the benchmark of 15,000-16,250.
- Total Hits Allowed = 43,154, which is below the benchmark of 44,000-45,250.
- Aggregate Walks+Hits per IP (WHIP) = 1.33, which is below the benchmark range of 1.37-1.41.
Conclusion - The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa Pitchers’ projections are not perfect (when compared to the benchmarks). However, like their Hitting counterparts, these Pitchers’ projections can serve as a reasonable set of “Expected Case” projections. The other projections I’ve reviewed can be objectively labeled as “Best Case” projections. Again, the chief advantage of using a set of “Expected Case” projections over a set of “Best Case” projections is that the former will lead to a more realistic evaluation and ranking of the second and third-tier players who will likely determine your league’s champion.
Until next time,
The Sherpa
Tags: fantasy baseball sherpa, Pitchers' projections, The Sherpa