To C.C. or not to C.C.? (4/23/08)
In yesterday’s post I looked at several indicators that you can use to quickly evaluate whether a hitter’s unexpectedly hot/cold start warrants an early-season roster move. Today, I’ll do the same for a couple of pitchers.
We’ll use Cliff Lee as an example of a fast-starter and C.C. Sabathia (last night’s strong start not withstanding) as an example of a slow-starter.
Let’s look at the following indicators:
- Strikeout rate (per 9 Innings Pitched) = 9*(K/IP)
- Strikeout to Walk ratio = K/BB
- Batting Average Against on Balls in Play (BAABIP) = (H-HR)/[(3*IP)+H-HR-K]
Let’s look at Cliff Lee first:
- Strikeout rate
- 2008 (22 2/3 IP) = 7.94
- 2007 (97 1/3 IP) = 6.10
- 2006 (200 2/3 IP) = 5.79
- 2005 (202 IP) = 6.37
- Strikeout to Walk ratio
- 2008 = 10.00
- 2007 = 1.83
- 2006 = 2.22
- 2005 = 2.75
- Batting Average Against on Balls in Play
- 2008 = .145
- 2007 = .296
- 2006 = .292
- 2005 = .271
Lee’s 2008 K/9 rate is significantly higher than it was even in 2005, when he finished 4th in the American League Cy Young voting. What really jumps out is the high 2008 K/BB rate, which is unsustainable over the course of a season. Combine that with a healthy dose of luck (i.e. - a BAABIP which is roughly half of what you would expect from Lee over the course of a full season), and you have all the makings of the pitching equivalent of a supernova. If you currently own Lee, I would suggest sending out trade feelers to see if you can shore up weaknesses in other areas of your roster.
Now let’s look at Sabathia:
- Strikeout rate
- 2008 (24 IP) = 9.38
- 2007 (241 IP) = 7.80
- 2006 (192 2/3 IP) = 8.03
- 2005 (196 2/3 IP) = 7.37
- Strikeout to Walk ratio
- 2008 = 1.56
- 2007 = 5.65
- 2006 = 3.91
- 2005 = 2.60
- Batting Average Against on Balls in Play
- 2008 = .397
- 2007 = .297
- 2006 = .289
- 2005 = .279
I’ve read a number of fantasy sportswriters who’ve expressed the opinion that Sabathia’s heavy workload from the past is finally catching up with him. Others point to Sabathia’s girth as the source of his troubles. Some even question whether he can handle the pressure of pitching with a potentially huge free agent contract waiting at the end of the season. While all of these concerns sound good in theory, I believe they are all much ado about nothing. In fact, I wish the people writing this drivel were playing in one of my leagues so that I could offer them a trade for Sabathia (Cliff Lee, anyone?).
Like Lee, Sabathia’s strikeout rate this season is higher than it has been the last three years, which suggests that it will come down. However, unlike Lee, Sabathia’s long-term strikeout rate is still somewhat better than the league average. The key to Sabathia’s early-season struggles is the low strikeout to walk ratio, which is the result of a much higher than expected walk rate. You can speculate all you want as to the cause of the higher walk rate (e.g. - trying too hard to strike people out, doesn’t have a good feel for his pitches in the cool weather, etc.), but I will still give much more weight to his results of his last three years of work rather than the results of his first five starts this season. Finally, Sabathia’s BAABIP is almost 100 points higher than it is likely to be at the end of a full season, which also suggests that he’s had a run of “bad luck” on balls put in play against him.
While the results for the four players I’ve analyzed over the last two days may be of particular interest to you (feel free to remind me at the end of the season if I’m wrong about any of them), my primary goal in performing this analysis is to give you a set of indicators that can be applied to any player you’re interested in to compare their 2008 season-to-date results with their historical results. Hopefully, by doing so you’ll be able to differentiate between the real deals from the fantasy fakeouts.
Until next time,
The Sherpa
Tags: C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, The Sherpa