The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Today I’ll turn the magnifying glass on my own projections to see how they stack up against the other projections I’ve reviewed previously. I’ll use the benchmarks laid out in my 3/17 post on Hitters.

1. Total At-Bats (AB) for all Hitters, all teams = 156,214, which is somewhat lower than the benchmark range of 161,000-163,000.
2. Total AB range for all teams = 4,737 (San Diego) to 5,049 (Dodgers) for NL teams, and 5,379 (Minnesota) to 5,780 (Detroit) for AL teams. The NL range is somewhat below the benchmark of 5,100-5,400 for NL teams, while the AL range is fairly consistent with the benchmark of 5,400-5,800 for AL teams. Note that these figures exclude projected ABs for Pitchers, which accounts for the different benchmarks for the two leagues.
3. Total Hits = 43,035, which is within the benchmark of 43,000-45,000.
4. Overall Batting Average = .276, which is above the benchmark of .268-.273.
5. Total Home Runs = 5,303, which is within the benchmark of 4,900-5,400.
6. Total Runs Batted In = 22,191, which is slightly above the benchmark of 21,000-22,000.
7. Total Runs Scored = 23,241, which is within the benchmark of 22,000-23,500.
8. Total Stolen Bases = 3,057, which is slightly above the benchmark of 2,500-3,000.

Conclusion - While the totals in some of the categories are outside the benchmark ranges, when viewed as a whole, the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa Hitters’ projections can serve as a reasonable set of “Expected Case” projections. The differences between an “Expected Case” and “Best Case” set of projections may not affect your choices early in your draft or auction, but by the time you get down to the second and third-tier players (i.e. - where fantasy championships are often won), the differences can become significant. “Best Case” projections will lead you to overvalue the second and third-tier players, which can lead you to draft them too soon or pay too much for them in an auction. Use a set of “Expected Case” projections (preferably the Sherpa’s!) whenever possible.

I’ll look at my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa Pitchers’ projections later today.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Here’s a review of the Pitchers’ projections available at CBS Sportsline. I’ll use the benchmarks laid out in my 3/17 post on Pitchers.

1. Total Innings Pitched (IP) for all Pitchers, all teams = 56,900, which is significantly higher than the benchmark of 43,200-43,400.
2. Total IP for a Team ranges from 1,479 (LA Angels) to 2,261 (Texas), which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 1,400-1,500.
3. Totals Wins = 3,084; Total Losses = 3,165. Aside from the fact that the Wins and Losses don’t match, they’re both significantly higher than the number of games in a baseball season (2,430).
4. The #Saves as a percentage of the #Wins (1,317/3,084) = 42.7%, which is significantly lower than the benchmark of 49%-52%. If the #Wins were corrected (i.e. - Total #Wins set to 2,430), then the #Saves as a percentage of the #Wins (1,317/2,430) would be 54.2%, which would be above the 49%-52% benchmark.
5. Total #Earned Runs allowed = 26,167, which is significantly higher than the benchmark of 20,500-21,750.
6. Overall Earned Run Average (ERA) = 4.14, which is below the benchmark of 4.25-4.50.
7. Total Walks Allowed = 20,346, which is significantly higher than the benchmark of 15,000-16,250.
8. Total Hits Allowed = 57,734, which is significantly higher than the benchmark of 44,000-45,250.
9. Aggregate Walks+Hits per IP (WHIP) = 1.37, which is within the benchmark range of 1.37-1.41.

Conclusion - CBS Sportsline’s Pitchers’ projections, like their Hitters’ projections, appear to be “Best Case” projections rather than “Expected Case” projections, with the possible exceptions of the #Saves and the WHIP. Some might argue that if the Hitters’ and Pitchers’ projections are both overstated to the same degree, then using the entire set of projections will not create any problems. I disagree - even if the Hitters’ and Pitchers’ projections were “equally out of whack”, the resulting projections for the second and third-tier players (i.e. - the ones that usually make the difference between a great winning fantasy team and an also-ran) will be too optimistic, resulting in these players being taken too soon in a draft or going for too much in an auction.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Today I’ll continue my series of reviews of several widely available sources of 2008 fantasy baseball projections. Next up are the Hitters’ projections available at CBS Sportsline. I’ll use the benchmarks laid out in my 3/17 post on Hitters.

1. Total At-Bats (AB) for all Hitters, all teams = 201,801, which is significantly greater than the benchmark range of 161,000-163,000.
2. Total AB range for all teams = 5,902 (Phillies) to 7,911 (Nationals) for NL teams, and 6,422 (Rays) to 7,777 (Rangers) for AL teams. Based on results for the past 3 seasons, a much more reasonable range is 5,100-5,400 AB for an NL team, and 5,400 to 5,800 AB for an AL team. You can draw your own conclusions on the likelihood of the Nationals’ Hitters accumulating 2,000 AB more than the Phillies and 1,000 AB more than teams like the Red Sox and Yankees.
3. Total Hits = 55,302, which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 43,000-45,000.
4. Overall Batting Average is .274, which is slightly higher than the benchmark range of .268-.273.
5. Total Home Runs = 6,343, which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 4,900-5,400.
6. Total Runs Batted In = 27,829, which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 21,000-22,000.
7. Total Runs Scored = 28,793, which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 22,000-23,500.
8. Total Stolen Bases = 3,495, which is significantly higher than the benchmark range of 2,500-3,000.

Conclusion - CBS Sportsline’s Hitters’ projections, when viewed as a whole, appear to be a set of “Best Case” projections rather than “Expected Case” projections. While that may serve you well at the end of you draft/auction when you’re trolling for sleepers, relying on a “Best Case” set of projections throughout your draft will likely result in your drafting mediocre players too soon or paying too much for them in an auction.

I’ll look at CBS Sportsline’s Pitchers’ projections later today.

Until then,

The Sherpa

I just recently finished updating my player projections for the 2008 season based on all the roster adjustments at the end of Spring Training. So, in a follow-up to a post on 2/19/08, I’ll take my second crack at projecting the 2008 baseball standings. For those who are interested, the projected win total for each team is based on the projected difference between the team’s Runs Scored and Runs Allowed. Again, this matters because starting with a realistic set of player projections that make sense in the aggregate is the most important step in assigning fantasy baseball value to individual players.

NL East

New York 89-73

Atlanta 85-77

Philadelphia 80-82

Florida 71-91

Washington 70-92

NL Central

Chicago 84-78

Milwaukee 84-78

Houston 79-83

Cincinnati 76-86

St. Louis 75-87

Pittsburgh 74-88

NL West

Los Angeles 85-77

Arizona 83-79

Colorado 79-83

San Diego 77-85

San Francisco 71-91

AL East

New York 95-67

Boston 89-73

Tampa Bay 82-80

Toronto 82-80

Baltimore 73-89

AL Central

Detroit 89-73

Cleveland 87-75

Chicago 84-78

Minnesota 82-80

Kansas City 79-83

AL West

Anaheim 90-72

Seattle 81-81

Oakland 79-83

Texas 76-86

The Angels 4-win reduction is the biggest change since my first set of predictions in February. Even so, none of my projected division winners have changed.

Teams that will be better than expected: Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and Oakland.

Team that will be worse than expected: Philadelphia.

Here are my predictions for the playoffs - they’re based on the assumption that the team with the better overall pitching (i.e. - lower team ERA) will win (admittedly far from perfect!) in a short series:

1) NL Central Playoff - Cubs beat Brewers.

2) Division Playoff Round - Mets beat Cubs; Braves beat Dodgers; Yankees beat Tigers; Red Sox beat Angels

3) League Championship Playoff Round - Mets beat Braves; Red Sox beat Yankees.

4) World Series - Mets beat Red Sox.

Last week I was asked during a radio interview which teams would be facing off in the 2008 World Series - my response at that time was the Mets and the Angels. I’m now going with the Red Sox instead of the Angels because I didn’t realize at the time what a big impact losing Lackey for 1.5-2 months and Escobar (probably) for the year would make on the Angels’ pitching staff.

Until next time,

The Sherpa