Categorically Speaking (Tues 7/29/08)
Major League Baseball GMs are not the only people concerned with trading deadlines this week - many fantasy team owners also have trading deadlines rapidly approaching. However, whether your league’s trading deadline is August 1st, September 1st, or even if your league doesn’t have a deadline, there are certain steps you should take before you play “let’s make a deal”:
- Assess your potential point gain and loss in each scoring category your league uses. Be realistic (erring on the side of pessimism) - if the team one place ahead of you in the Stolen Base category has 30 more SBs than you do, you’re probably not going to catch them with just 1/3 of the season left, even if you trade today for Jose Reyes. Remember to consider potential point loss in each category too - gaining 2 points in SBs does you no good if you have to trade away a slugger whose departure will cost you 3-4 points in HRs in order to obtain the speed demon you crave.
- Calculate your potential point swing in each category. If you have the potential to gain 2 points and lose 4 points in a particular category, then your potential point swing in that category is 6 points.
- Determine your 2-3 Hitting and Pitching categories with the biggest potential point swings and make these categories your priority in seeking and evaluating potential trades.
Several related notes:
- When assessing your team’s ability to gain/lose ground in each category, be sure to consider the impact of recent changes that other teams have made to their rosters. If the team one place ahead of you in the Home Run category just traded Jose Reyes for Ryan Howard, it’s a lot less likely you’ll catch them than if they just traded Ryan Howard for Jose Reyes.
- Consider the correlations between categories as well (at least in a qualitative sense). Trading for a slugger is likely to help you in multiple categories (HRs, RBIs), whereas trading for a top base-stealer or a Closer is less likely to have a spillover effect in other categories.
- Don’t fall into the trap of thinking it’s easier to make up ground in average-based categories (e.g. - AVG, OBP, ERA, WHIP) than in counting categories (e.g. - HRs, SBs, Wins, Ks) just because a team’s results can move up or down in the average-based categories. While the latter statement is true, average-based categories are typically a function of a team’s year-to-date At-Bats (AB) or Innings Pitched (IP). As the season progresses, large gains/losses in a team’s average-based categories become increasingly less likely.
Until next time,
The Sherpa
Tags: Jose Reyes, Ryan Howard, The Sherpa