The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

This will be the first in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll start with the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 mixed league format.

1. Albert Pujols (Preseason rank was 7) - STL, 1B
   • Actual stats: 524 AB, 37 HR, 116 RBI, 7 SB, .357 AVG, 100 R, 3.46 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
   • Projected stats: 528 AB, 37 HR, 110 RBI, 6 SB, .330 AVG, 105 R, 3.32 Sherpa Pts
2. Manny Ramirez (38) - LAD/BOS, OF
   • Actual stats: 552 AB, 37 HR, 121 RBI, 3 SB, .332 AVG, 102 R, 3.22 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 499 AB, 30 HR, 105 RBI, 0 SB, .303 AVG, 91 R, 2.55 Sherpa Pts
3. David Wright (5) - NYM, 3B
   • Actual stats: 626 AB, 33 HR, 124 RBI, 15 SB, .302 AVG, 115 R, 3.16 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 607 AB, 29 HR, 112 RBI, 26 SB, .316 AVG, 108 R, 3.40 Sherpa Pts
4. Hanley Ramirez (4) -FLA, SS
   • Actual stats: 589 AB, 33 HR, 67 RBI, 35 SB, .301 AVG, 125 R, 3.09 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 645 AB, 23 HR, 71 RBI, 52 SB, .310 AVG, 123 R, 3.41 Sherpa Pts
5. Lance Berkman (20) - HOU, 1B/OF
   • Actual stats: 554 AB, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 18 SB, .312 AVG, 114 R, 3.04 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 562 AB, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 6 SB, .294 AVG, 96 R, 2.80 Sherpa Pts
6. Matt Holliday (2) - COL, OF
   • Actual stats: 539 AB, 25 HR, 88 RBI, 28 SB, .321 AVG, 107 R, 3.02 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 636 AB, 33 HR, 125 RBI, 12 SB, .322 AVG, 114 R, 3.56 Sherpa Pts
7. Dustin Pedroia (93) - BOS, 2B
   • Actual stats: 653 AB, 17 HR, 83 RBI, 20 SB, .326 AVG, 118 R, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 602 AB, 10 HR, 61 RBI, 6 SB, .296 AVG, 96 R, 1.95 Sherpa Pts
8. Josh Hamilton (129) - TEX, OF
   • Actual stats: 624 AB, 32 HR, 130 RBI, 9 SB, .304 AVG, 98 R, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 488 AB, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 10 SB, .266 AVG, 75 R, 1.74 Sherpa Pts
9. Jose Reyes (13) - NYM, SS
   • Actual stats: 688 AB, 16 HR, 68 RBI, 56 SB, .297 AVG, 113 R, 2.97 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 673 AB, 13 HR, 65 RBI, 70 SB, .285 AVG, 116 R, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
10. Alex Rodriguez (1) - NYY, 3B
    • Actual stats: 510 AB, 35 HR, 103 RBI, 18 SB, .302 AVG, 104 R, 2.92 Sherpa Pts
    • Projected stats: 587 AB, 45 HR, 135 RBI, 21 SB, .308 AVG, 129 R, 3.84 Sherpa Pts

The most interesting observation from my perspective - the relative difficulty in projecting SB and AVG vs. projecting the other hitting categories. Injuries obviously impact the actual rankings (e.g. - Matt Holliday and Alex Rodriguez), but so do changes in batting order position (e.g. - Dustin Pedroia). Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 5 of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other five, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

95. David Ortiz (3) - BOS, Util

• Actual stats: 416 AB, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 1 SB, .264 AVG, 74 R, 1.69 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 560 AB, 44 HR, 130 RBI, 2 SB, .313 AVG, 116 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts

19. Miguel Cabrera (6) - DET, 1B/3B

• Actual stats: 616 AB, 37 HR, 127 RBI, 1 SB, .292 AVG, 85 R, 2.68 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 622 AB, 35 HR, 123 RBI, 4 SB, .323 AVG, 106 R, 3.40 Sherpa Pts

13. Chase Utley (8) - PHI, 2B

• Actual stats: 607 AB, 33 HR, 104 RBI, 14 SB, .292 AVG, 113 R, 2.85 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 595 AB, 27 HR, 109 RBI, 13 SB, .318 AVG, 115 R, 3.22 Sherpa Pts

108. Carl Crawford (9) - TB, OF

• Actual stats: 443 AB, 8 HR, 57 RBI, 25 SB, .273 AVG, 69 R, 1.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 635 AB, 15 HR, 84 RBI, 54 SB, .310 AVG, 99 R, 3.19 Sherpa Pts

36. Vladimir Guerrero (10) - LAA, OF

• Actual stats: 541 AB, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 5 SB, .303 AVG, 85 R, 2.36 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 589 AB, 30 HR, 120 RBI, 5 SB, .319 AVG, 93 R, 3.08 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Pitchers in a mixed league 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Tags: Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Carl Crawford, Chase Utley, David Ortiz, David Right, Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, Josh Hamilton, Lance Berkman, Manny Ramirez, Matt Holliday, Miguel Cabrera, Sherpaville, The Sherpa, Vladimir Guerrero

This entry was posted on Sunday, November 30th, 2008 at 1:39 pm and is filed under fantasy baseball, fantasy baseball projections, fantasy baseball sherpa, fantasy baseball strategy, fantasy baseball strategy blog, position scarcity. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.