The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

This entry is the second in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll continue with the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 mixed league format.

1. Roy Halladay (Preseason rank was 6) - TOR, SP
   • Actual stats: 246 IP, 20 W, 0 SV, 2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 206 K, 3.59 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
   • Projected stats: 208 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 134 K, 2.78 Sherpa Pts
2. CC Sabathia (4) - CLE/MIL, SP
   • Actual stats: 253 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 251 K, 3.46 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 227 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 196 K, 3.14 Sherpa Pts
3. Cliff Lee (298) - CLE, SP
   • Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 22 W, 0 SV, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 170 K, 3.33 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 50 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 4.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 33 K, 0.26 Sherpa Pts
4. Tim Lincecum (50) -SF, SP
   • Actual stats: 227 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 265 K, 3.32 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 183 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.28 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 203 K, 1.85 Sherpa Pts
5. Johan Santana (1) - NYM, SP
   • Actual stats: 234.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 206 K, 3.18 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 224 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 237 K, 4.00 Sherpa Pts
6. Cole Hamels (21) - PHI, SP
   • Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 196 K, 2.88 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 187 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.75 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 188 K, 2.50 Sherpa Pts
7. Brandon Webb (3) - ARI, SP
   • Actual stats: 226.2 IP, 22 W, 0 SV, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183 K, 2.74 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 231 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 182 K, 3.23 Sherpa Pts
8. Dan Haren (8) - ARI, SP
   • Actual stats: 216 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 206 K, 2.68 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 215 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.64 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 176 K, 2.62 Sherpa Pts
9. Ervin Santana (249) - LAA, SP
   • Actual stats: 219 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 214 K, 2.67 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 140 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 5.21 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 108 K, 0.42 Sherpa Pts
10. Ryan Dempster (198) - ChC, SP
    • Actual stats: 206.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 187 K, 2.56 Sherpa Pts
    • Projected stats: 80 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 70 K, 0.59 Sherpa Pts

The most interesting observation from my perspective - the relative difficulty in projecting W, ERA and WHIP vs. projecting Ks, and the number of Pitchers who seemingly came out of nowhere (i.e. - Lee, Ervin Santana, and Dempster). Injuries obviously impact the actual rankings (see John Smoltz and J.J. Putz below), but so do incorrect initial estimates regarding Innings Pitched. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 5 of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other five, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

21. Jake Peavy (2) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 173.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 166 K, 2.11 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 216 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 230 K, 3.62 Sherpa Pts

16. Roy Oswalt (5) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 208.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 165 K, 2.27 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 224 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 166 K, 2.93 Sherpa Pts

188. John Smoltz (7) - ATL, SP

• Actual stats: 28 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 2.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 36 K, 0.47 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 185 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 166 K, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

150. J.J. Putz (9) - SEA, RP

• Actual stats: 46.1 IP, 6 W, 15 SV, 3.89 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 56 K, 0.63 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 71 IP, 3 W, 33 SV, 2.41 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 79 K, 2.32 Sherpa Pts

14. Mariano Rivera (10) - NYY, RP

• Actual stats: 70.2 IP, 6 W, 39 SV, 1.40 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 77 K, 2.33 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 74 IP, 3 W, 41 SV, 2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 70 K, 2.31 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Tags: Brandon Webb, C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Dan Haren, Ervin Santana, J.J. Putz, Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, John Smoltz, Mariano Rivera, Mock Draft Central, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Ryan Dempster, Sherpaville, The Sherpa, Tim Lincecum

This entry was posted on Sunday, December 28th, 2008 at 10:47 pm and is filed under fantasy baseball, fantasy baseball projections, fantasy baseball sherpa, fantasy baseball strategy, fantasy baseball strategy blog, position scarcity. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.