2008 Year in Review - Top 10 NL-only 5×5 Hitters (12/29/08)
This is the third in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including only Manny Ramirez’ Dodgers’ stats (he ranked 59th overall based on just 59 At-Bats!) and Mark Teixeira’s Braves’ stats (he ranked 56th based on 381 At-Bats)
1. Albert Pujols (Preseason rank was 4) - STL, 1B
- Actual stats: 524 AB, 37 HR, 116 RBI, 7 SB, .357 AVG, 100 R, 3.46 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
- Projected stats: 528 AB, 37 HR, 110 RBI, 6 SB, .330 AVG, 105 R, 3.38 Sherpa Pts
2. David Wright (3) - NYM, 3B
- Actual stats: 626 AB, 33 HR, 124 RBI, 15 SB, .302 AVG, 115 R, 3.18 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 607 AB, 29 HR, 112 RBI, 26 SB, .316 AVG, 108 R, 3.46 Sherpa Pts
3. Hanley Ramirez (2) - FL, SS
- Actual stats: 589 AB, 33 HR, 67 RBI, 35 SB, .301 AVG, 125 R, 3.12 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 645 AB, 23 HR, 71 RBI, 52 SB, .310 AVG, 123 R, 3.48 Sherpa Pts
4. Lance Berkman (13) - HOU, 1B/OF
- Actual stats: 554 AB, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 18 SB, .312 AVG, 114 R, 3.06 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 562 AB, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 6 SB, .294 AVG, 96 R, 2.86 Sherpa Pts
5. Matt Holliday (1) - COL, OF
- Actual stats: 539 AB, 25 HR, 88 RBI, 28 SB, .321 AVG, 107 R, 3.03 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 636 AB, 33 HR, 125 RBI, 12 SB, .322 AVG, 114 R, 3.63 Sherpa Pts
6. Jose Reyes (8) - NYM, SS
- Actual stats: 688 AB, 16 HR, 68 RBI, 56 SB, .297 AVG, 113 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 673 AB, 13 HR, 65 RBI, 70 SB, .285 AVG, 116 R, 3.05 Sherpa Pts
7. Carlos Beltran (18) - NYM, OF
- Actual stats: 606 AB, 27 HR, 112 RBI, 25 SB, .284 AVG, 116 R, 2.90 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 553 AB, 33 HR, 108 RBI, 21 SB, .273 AVG, 103 R, 2.70 Sherpa Pts
8. Chase Utley (5) - PHI, 2B
- Actual stats: 607 AB, 33 HR, 104 RBI, 14 SB, .292 AVG, 113 R, 2.87 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 595 AB, 27 HR, 109 RBI, 13 SB, .318 AVG, 115 R, 3.28 Sherpa Pts
9. Ryan Ludwick (81) - STL, OF
- Actual stats: 538 AB, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 4 SB, .299 AVG, 104 R, 2.83 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 399 AB, 21 HR, 65 RBI, 2 SB, .261 AVG, 69 R, 1.45 Sherpa Pts
10. Ryan Braun (14) - MIL, 3B/OF
- Actual stats: 611 AB, 37 HR, 106 RBI, 14 SB, .285 AVG, 92 R, 2.73 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 592 AB, 39 HR, 99 RBI, 19 SB, .280 AVG, 104 R, 2.86 Sherpa Pts
The most interesting observation from my perspective - the impact of batting order position (imagine what Hanley Ramirez could do if he batted 3rd or 4th) and the lower-than-expected SB totals for both Ramirez and Jose Reyes, which bring them back to the pack somewhat in the overall rankings. Injuries also impacted the actual rankings (e.g. - Matt Holliday and Chase Utley), as did the lack of anticipated injuries (e.g. - Albert Pujols). Ryan Ludwick is the only name on the list I’d term a complete surprise. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.
You’ll also note that only 6 of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other four, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!
11. Ryan Howard (6) - PHI, 1B
- Actual stats: 610 AB, 48 HR, 146 RBI, 1 SB, .251 AVG, 105 R, 2.71 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 560 AB, 44 HR, 130 RBI, 2 SB, .313 AVG, 116 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts
29. Jimmy Rollins (7) - PHI, SS
- Actual stats: 556 AB, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 47 SB, .277 AVG, 76 R, 2.10 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 684 AB, 24 HR, 81 RBI, 39 SB, .289 AVG, 128 R, 3.12 Sherpa Pts
25. Alfonso Soriano (9) - ChC, OF
- Actual stats: 453 AB, 29 HR, 75 RBI, 19 SB, .280 AVG, 76 R, 2.17 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 645 AB, 39 HR, 85 RBI, 26 SB, .285 AVG, 110 R, 3.02 Sherpa Pts
21. Derrek Lee (10) - ChC, 1B
- Actual stats: 623 AB, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 8 SB, .291 AVG, 93 R, 2.26 Sherpa Pts
- Projected stats: 575 AB, 28 HR, 92 RBI, 14 SB, .311 AVG, 100 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts
We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Pitchers in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.
Until next time,
The Sherpa
Tags: Albert Pujols, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Beltran, Chase Utley, David Wright, Derrek Lee, Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Lance Berkman, Manny Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, Matt Holliday, Mock Draft Central, Ryan Braun, Ryan Howard, Ryan Ludwick, Sherpa Pts, Sherpaville, The Sherpa