Roid Rage (2/17/09)
Towards the end of the 1983 classic Return of the Jedi Emperor Palpatine tells Luke Skywalker “I can feel your anger” as he implores Luke to join the Dark Side of the Force. Yes, by making a Star Wars reference I’m dating myself, but as a friend of mine used to say, somebody’s got to do it.
Much like the Emperor Palpatine, I can feel the anger directed towards Alex Rodriguez by baseball fans in the wake of his recent admission that he used steroids from 2001-2003 while a member of the Texas Rangers. What impact did A-Rod’s steroid use have on his fantasy baseball value? Surprisingly, the answer is “not much”.
On my website FantasyBaseballSherpa.com I’ve created a method of evaluating players’ fantasy baseball impact called the Sherpa Points system. For counting stats such as home runs, RBI, etc., the league leader in the category is assigned a Sherpa Points score of 1.00. A player with half the league leader’s total in that category would receive a 0.50 Sherpa Points, a player with a quarter of the league leader’s total in that category would receive 0.25 Sherpa Points, etc.
For rate stats such as batting average a proxy statistic can be used. To get a player’s Total Sherpa Points across all fantasy categories, you simply add up his Sherpa Points in each individual category. If your fantasy league uses n hitting categories, then the maximum Total Sherpa Points would be n. Thus, we have a straightforward method of evaluating a player’s overall fantasy impact. The same method can be used to evaluate pitchers.
For the standard five hitting categories (AVG, HR, RBI, SB, R) here are Alex Rodriguez’ Total Sherpa Points scores by year since he became a full-time player in 1996 (max possible score is 5.00):
- 1996: 3.70
- 1997: 2.37
- 1998: 3.63
- 1999: 2.57
- 2000: 3.29
- 2001: 3.35
- 2002: 3.67
- 2003: 3.34
- 2004: 2.87
- 2005: 3.89
- 2006: 2.77
- 2007: 3.80
- 2008: 2.92
The preceding makes it clear that while Rodriguez may have been more consistent from 2001-2003 than over any other three-year period of his career, he definitely did not perform at a higher level relative to his peers during those years. In fact, his best year during his “Steroid Period” (2002) stacks up as only the fourth-best fantasy season of his career, trailing 2005, 2007, and even 1996!
Perhaps you despise Rodriguez because you don’t like his personality, you think he doesn’t come through during the playoffs, you believe he’s still taking illegal substances, you hate the Yankees, or you get tired of reading about his off-the-field antics in the tabloids. Whatever the reason, if you want to maximize your chances for fantasy baseball success in 2009, you need to set that all aside and take him this year if he’s available when it’s your turn to draft.
I project the following stats for Rodriguez for 2009: .302 AVG, 44 HR, 133 RBI, 21 SB, 128 R, 3.65 Total Sherpa Points. When you factor in Position Scarcity (the drop-off between the top-rated options and the mediocre options at each position), you could make an argument that Hanley Ramirez (3.44 projected Total Sherpa Points) should be the top overall pick. However, given the relative uncertainty surrounding Ramirez (e.g. – will he be batting leadoff or third? will his supporting cast be weaker this year than in the past?), I would argue strongly for Rodriguez as the first overall pick.
Let go of your anger – it will not serve you well.
Until next time,
The Sherpa
Tags: A-Rod, Alex Rodriguez, fantasy baseball, FantasyBaseballSherpa.com, Hanley Ramirez, position scarcity, Sherpa Points, Texas Rangers, The Sherpa, Total Sherpa Points, Yankees