Predictions for 2009 Tout Wars: NL-only (Mon 3/30/09)

Hi everyone,

Yesterday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars NL-only auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan.  This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers).  Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers.  Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster.  The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.

Here are the 13 participants for 2009:

  1. Tristan Cockcroft - ESPN.com
  2. Phil Hertz - baseballHQ.com
  3. Peter Kreutzer - askrotoman.com
  4. Rob Leibowitz - Fanball.com
  5. Michael Lombardo - WiseGuyBaseball.com
  6. Lenny Melnick & Paul Greco - FantasyPros911.com
  7. Scott Pianowski - Yahoo.com
  8. Nate Ravitz - ESPN.com
  9. Cory Schwartz - mlb.com
  10. Brian Walton - CREATiVESPORTS.com
  11. Scott Wilderman - The Owners Edge
  12. Rick Wilton - Baseball-Injury-Report.com
  13. Todd Zola - mastersball.com

Here’s a link to the spreadsheet posted on the Tout Wars’ website that details each team’s roster.

I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Sunday’s auction.

Projections by Team - Hitting Categories

 


Owner

AB

AVG

HR

RBI

SB

R

Cockroft

5,987

.284

193

843

180

946

Hertz

6,205

.275

209

893

101

885

Kreutzer

5,333

.276

156

729

156

792

Leibowitz

5,426

.281

207

768

139

828

Lombardo

4,082

.282

156

658

58

628

Melnick

5,313

.265

213

783

112

858

Pianowski

7,033

.272

263

1,062

73

1,002

Ravitz

6,003

.279

193

784

155

884

Schwartz

5,007

.285

190

731

83

762

Walton

5,787

.262

191

798

132

887

Wilderman

5,587

.276

178

767

156

838

Wilton

5,543

.268

180

745

107

733

Zola

5,252

.284

184

729

105

760

 

 

Projections by Team - Pitching Categories

 


Owner

IP

W

SV

ERA

WHIP

K

Cockroft

1,220

68

31

4.06

1.27

1,130

Hertz

1,028

57

54

4.71

1.38

742

Kreutzer

1,416

82

0

4.18

1.30

1,017

Leibowitz

1,079

63

37

4.33

1.27

880

Lombardo

1,111

65

42

4.33

1.27

970

Melnick

1,078

58

12

4.51

1.31

989

Pianowski

1,156

62

65

3.99

1.33

1,014

Ravitz

1,068

63

72

3.80

1.25

942

Schwartz

954

54

74

4.25

1.30

786

Walton

1,243

69

38

4.60

1.28

981

Wilderman

995

53

55

4.67

1.32

928

Wilton

1,150

65

53

4.37

1.34

982

Zola

987

56

37

4.00

1.23

852

 

Projected Standings

 


Owner

H Pts

P Pts

Total Pts

Ravitz

44.5

52.5

97

Cockroft

56.5

36

92.5

Pianowski

45

35

80

Leibowitz

41

39

80

Walton

37

35

72

Schwartz

30

41

71

Hertz

42

28

70

Zola

26.5

42.5

69

Wilderman

33.5

26

59.5

Kreutzer

27.5

32

59.5

Melnick

37

20

57

Lombardo

14.5

38.5

53

Wilton

20

29.5

49.5

 

 

Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”.  However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant.  I’m sure if you asked them,  many, if not all, of the 13 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team.  Such is the nature of the beast.

 

Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:

  • At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so.  This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
  • I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction.  Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup.  I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
  • Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.

Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings gives a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction.  Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

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One Response to “Predictions for 2009 Tout Wars: NL-only (Mon 3/30/09)”

  1. The Tout Wars Winners Predicted | Says:

    […] the NL results, click here. Tristan Cockcroft had the best draft, which the Sherpa accurately […]

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