The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Yesterday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars NL-only auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan.  This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers).  Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers.  Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster.  The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.

Here are the 13 participants for 2009:

1. Tristan Cockcroft - ESPN.com
2. Phil Hertz - baseballHQ.com
3. Peter Kreutzer - askrotoman.com
4. Rob Leibowitz - Fanball.com
5. Michael Lombardo - WiseGuyBaseball.com
6. Lenny Melnick & Paul Greco - FantasyPros911.com
7. Scott Pianowski - Yahoo.com
8. Nate Ravitz - ESPN.com
9. Cory Schwartz - mlb.com
10. Brian Walton - CREATiVESPORTS.com
11. Scott Wilderman - The Owners Edge
12. Rick Wilton - Baseball-Injury-Report.com
13. Todd Zola - mastersball.com

Here’s a link to the spreadsheet posted on the Tout Wars’ website that details each team’s roster.

I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Sunday’s auction.

Projections by Team - Hitting Categories

 

Owner	AB	AVG	HR	RBI	SB	R
Cockroft	5,987	.284	193	843	180	946
Hertz	6,205	.275	209	893	101	885
Kreutzer	5,333	.276	156	729	156	792
Leibowitz	5,426	.281	207	768	139	828
Lombardo	4,082	.282	156	658	58	628
Melnick	5,313	.265	213	783	112	858
Pianowski	7,033	.272	263	1,062	73	1,002
Ravitz	6,003	.279	193	784	155	884
Schwartz	5,007	.285	190	731	83	762
Walton	5,787	.262	191	798	132	887
Wilderman	5,587	.276	178	767	156	838
Wilton	5,543	.268	180	745	107	733
Zola	5,252	.284	184	729	105	760

 

 

Projections by Team - Pitching Categories

 

Owner	IP	W	SV	ERA	WHIP	K
Cockroft	1,220	68	31	4.06	1.27	1,130
Hertz	1,028	57	54	4.71	1.38	742
Kreutzer	1,416	82	0	4.18	1.30	1,017
Leibowitz	1,079	63	37	4.33	1.27	880
Lombardo	1,111	65	42	4.33	1.27	970
Melnick	1,078	58	12	4.51	1.31	989
Pianowski	1,156	62	65	3.99	1.33	1,014
Ravitz	1,068	63	72	3.80	1.25	942
Schwartz	954	54	74	4.25	1.30	786
Walton	1,243	69	38	4.60	1.28	981
Wilderman	995	53	55	4.67	1.32	928
Wilton	1,150	65	53	4.37	1.34	982
Zola	987	56	37	4.00	1.23	852

 

Projected Standings

 

Owner	H Pts	P Pts	Total Pts
Ravitz	44.5	52.5	97
Cockroft	56.5	36	92.5
Pianowski	45	35	80
Leibowitz	41	39	80
Walton	37	35	72
Schwartz	30	41	71
Hertz	42	28	70
Zola	26.5	42.5	69
Wilderman	33.5	26	59.5
Kreutzer	27.5	32	59.5
Melnick	37	20	57
Lombardo	14.5	38.5	53
Wilton	20	29.5	49.5

 

 

Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”.  However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant.  I’m sure if you asked them,  many, if not all, of the 13 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team.  Such is the nature of the beast.

 

Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:

• At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so.  This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
• I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction.  Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup.  I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
• Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.

Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings gives a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction.  Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Tags: Brian Walton, Cory Schwartz, fantasy baseball sherpa, FantasyBaseballSherpa.com, Lenny Melnick, Michael Lombardo, Nate Ravitz, Paul Greco, Peter Kreutzer, Phil Hertz, Rick Wilton, Rob Leibowitz, Scott Pianowski, Scott Wilderman, The Sherpa, Todd Zola, Tout Wars, Tristan Cockcroft

This entry was posted on Monday, March 30th, 2009 at 5:07 pm and is filed under articles, experts' league, fantasy baseball, fantasy baseball projections, fantasy baseball sherpa, fantasy baseball strategy, fantasy baseball strategy blog, mock draft, position scarcity. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.