The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Just wanted to let everyone in Sherpaville know that I’ll be appearing as a guest on the Scarlett Pulse show tonight at 6:15pm EDT on Rutgers’ radio station (WRSU - 88.7 FM).

Hope you’re able to tune in!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Back in February when Alex Rodriguez admitted to having used steroids from 2001-2003 while with the Texas Rangers, I did an analysis of A-Rod’s career from a fantasy baseball perspective.  My goal was to determine whether A-Rod’s use of banned substances had a significant impact on his stats during his “Steroids Period”.

Here’s a summary of my findings:  ” . . . while Rodriguez may have been more consistent from 2001-2003 than over any other three-year period of his career, he definitely did not perform at a higher level relative to his peers during those years . . .”

This summary would naturally lead you to one of two conclusions:  (1) the steroids did not have a significant impact on A-Rod’s performance, at least not on the baseball field (i.e. - the A-Rod version), or (2) A-Rod’s steroid use was most likely not confined to the three-year period in question (i.e.- the Selena Roberts version).

Today Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games, apparently for testing positive for a banned substance related to off-the-field performance issues (and cycling off of steroids).  Once again, two conclusions are possible: (1) this was all just an honest mistake on the part of Manny and/or his doctor (i.e.- the dog ate my homework version, as Buster Olney referred to it today on ESPN.com), or (2) A-Rod is not the only active big-name player who has used performance-enhancing drugs (i.e.- the common sense version).

Whichever conclusion you wish to believe, I thought it would be interesting to view Manny’s career accomplishments through the same prism I applied to A-Rod’s back in February.

On my website FantasyBaseballSherpa.com I’ve created a method of evaluating players’ fantasy baseball impact called the Sherpa Points system.  For counting stats such as home runs, RBI, etc., the league leader in the category is assigned a Sherpa Points score of 1.00.  A player with half the league leader’s total in that category would receive a 0.50 Sherpa Points, a player with a quarter of the league leader’s total in that category would receive 0.25 Sherpa Points, etc. 

For rate stats such as batting average a proxy statistic can be used.  To get a player’s Total Sherpa Points across all fantasy categories, you simply add up his Sherpa Points in each individual category.  If your fantasy league uses n hitting categories, then the maximum Total Sherpa Points would be n.  Thus, we have a straightforward method of evaluating a player’s overall fantasy impact.  The same method can be used to evaluate pitchers.

For the standard five hitting categories (AVG, HR, RBI, SB, R) here are Manny Ramirez’ Total Sherpa Points scores by year since he became a full-time player in 1995 (max possible score is 5.00):

• 1995:  2.64
• 1996:  2.59
• 1997:  2.33
• 1998:  2.79
• 1999:  3.31
• 2000:  2.82
• 2001:  2.35
• 2002:  2.83
• 2003:  3.03
• 2004:  2.93
• 2005:  3.09
• 2006:  2.38
• 2007:  1.78
• 2008:  3.22

As was the case with A-Rod, Manny’s stats have shown a fair amount of year-to-year variation, which is to be expected.  However, unlike A-Rod, Manny was not a bona fide superstar in his first full year in the league.  To be fair, some of that is attributable to the fact that A-Rod has always been more active on the basepaths than Manny (whose career high for SBs was 8 in his 2nd season in the league), and he’s also consistently scored more runs than Manny.  A-Rod’s higher runs scored could be attributable to being more active on the basepaths, having better “RBI guys” hitting behind him in the lineup, and especially to the fact that A-Rod’s consistently played more games in a season than Manny.

Coincidentally (or maybe not), both A-Rod and Manny had big power spikes in 1998 (Manny’s 4th full season; A-Rod’s 3rd).  A-Rod’s HR total jumped from 23 in 1997 to 42 in 1998, while Manny’s increased from 26 in 1997 to 45 in 1998.  Coincidentally (or maybe not), 1998 was also the year that Mark McGwire’s HR total increased from 34 to 70, and Sammy Sosa’s increased from 36 to 66.

Manny’s career stats are more difficult to evaluate than A-Rod’s, primarily due to his having missed major chunks of time in four seasons (2000, 2002, 2006, and 2007), while A-Rod has missed significant amounts of time in just two seasons prior to this one (1999, 2008).  Also, since we don’t have a “confession” yet from Manny, we can’t really compare his performance from one period of his career with the rest of his career, the way we can with A-Rod.

Yet one thing is clear in both A-Rod’s and Manny’s cases.  A-Rod had the two best seasons of his career from a fantasy perspective in 2005 (the season he turned 30) and 2007 (the season he turned 32).  Manny had the second best season of his career in 2008 (the season he turned 36).  Yes, they are both supremely talented players.  Yes, knowledge regarding both nutrition and conditioning are much more advanced than they were a generation ago.  And yes, there is historical precedent for All-Star players performing at a high level well into their 30s - Willie Mays didn’t drop off until the season he turned 35, and Hank Aaron was still productive at age 38.

However, given that both A-Rod and Manny have tested positive for banned substances at the same time they were turning in some of the best performances of their career, it’s almost impossible to believe that any of their accomplishments were done without the aid of performance-enhancing drugs.  That’s one of the few things that even Yankee fans and Red Sox fans can agree on.

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Remember the circus event that took place just a couple of months ago when Scott Boras and the Los Angeles Dodgers staged one of the strangest negotiations in the history of free agency?  That all seems like a distant memory now.  The 50-game suspension of Manny Ramirez today for the use of a banned substance tore through the baseball world like a tornado, leaving many fantasy baseball team owners to pick up the pieces and wonder “what next?”.

If you’re unfortunate enough to play in a league that has no Bench or DL spots, you have little choice but to let Manny go or find another owner who’s willing to give you pennies on the dollar in a trade - you can’t afford two months of goose eggs from a roster spot if you hope to win your league’s championship this year.

If a Bench or DL spot is an option in your league, then your team’s situation isn’t nearly as dire.  However, there’s still the matter of replacing Manny’s name in your lineup.  It goes without saying that you won’t be able to come anywhere near replacing Manny’s production in your lineup unless you get lottery ticket lucky with a rookie call-up like Matt LaPorta or Nolan Reimold (I assume that they’re already taken if they’re eligible in your league).

If your league has a DH/Utility spot, and you’re fortunate enough to have an outfielder in that spot currently, then you’re also relatively fortunate in that you have the entire free agent hitter pool to consider for a Manny replacement.  If not, then you’ll have to confine your search to the available pool of outfielders.

The following are ranked lists of outfielders who may be available in your league, depending of course on the type of league you play in (NL-only vs. Mixed) and your league’s particular roster requirements.  Both sets of rankings assume the usual 5 hitting categories (HR, RBI, SB, R, AVG).  These remainder-of-season rankings are taken from the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa In-season Updates.  Since each player is given a maximum score of 1.00 in each of the categories, the maximum possible score is 5.00

Mixed League

1. Josh Anderson (2.18)
2. Ben Francisco (1.75)
3. Aaron Rowand (1.72)
4. Michael Cuddyer (1.56)
5. Scott Hairston (1.51)
6. Franklin Gutierrez (1.48)
7. Ryan Church (1.45)
8. Ken Griffey Jr (1.38)
9. Juan Pierre (1.31)
10. Juan Rivera (1.29)
11. Gary Matthews Jr (1.27)
12. Wladimir Balentien (1.23)
13. Chris Dickerson (1.21)
14. Brandon Moss (1.14)
15. Eric Hinske (0.91)
16. Omar Infante (0.82)
17. Micah Hoffpauir (0.72)
18. Austin Kearns (0.53)
19. Lou Montanez (0.41)
20. Laynce Nix (0.21)
21. Xavier Paul (0.09)

NL-only (I’m assuming that Rowand, Hairston, Church, and Pierre would be unavailble in this format)

1. Chris Dickerson (1.26)
2. Brandon Moss (1.18)
3. Eric Hinske (0.96)
4. Omar Infante (0.83)
5. Micah Hoffpauir (0.73)
6. Austin Kearns (0.56)
7. Laynce Nix (0.21)
8. Xavier Paul (0.10)

Note that since the players’ scores in each of the five categories are based on their forecasted result in that category relative to the league leader’s (among eligible players), the scores will vary slightly between a mixed league and an NL-only league.

Category needs should also factor into your decision; just keep in mind that you’re trying to minimize the damage rather than find someone capable or replicating Manny’s stats (it’s highly unlikely such a person exists on your league’s waiver wire)!

Then again, if he’s a fan of irony maybe Dodgers’ GM Ned Colletti has Barry Bonds’ phone # . . . . . . nah . . .

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Just wanted to let everyone in Sherpaville know that we’ve been quoted again on Forbes.com, this time in Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s piece on the minor leaguers most likely to have an impact during the remainder of the 2009 season.  We’re quoted on the slides for players #7 (Andrew McCutchen) and #8 (Nolan Reimold).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for a 5×5 Mixed League format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 110 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 55 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 482 AB, 35 HR, 110 RBI, 7 SB, .332 AVG, 96 R, 3.71 Total Sherpa Points
2. Johan Santana (NYM, SP) - 196 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 2.71 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 200 K, 3.65 Total Sherpa Points
3. Matt Kemp (LAD, OF) - 577 AB, 19 HR, 88 RBI, 31 SB, .308 AVG, 101 R, 3.45 Total Sherpa Points
4. Alfonso Soriano (ChC, OF) - 567 AB, 37 HR, 85 RBI, 25 SB, .286 AVG, 102 R, 3.35 Total Sherpa Points
5. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 508 AB, 28 HR, 96 RBI, 12 SB, .313 AVG, 102 R, 3.35 Total Sherpa Points
6. Alex Rodriguez (NYY, 3B) - 448 AB, 33 HR, 99 RBI, 16 SB, .304 AVG, 96 R, 3.30 Total Sherpa Points
7. Matt Holliday (Oak, OF) - 548 AB, 24 HR, 97 RBI, 16 SB, .310 AVG, 96 R, 3.28 Total Sherpa Points
8. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 549 AB, 29 HR, 81 RBI, 23 SB, .299 AVG, 98 R, 3.25 Total Sherpa Points
9. Miguel Cabrera (Det, 1B) - 533 AB, 30 HR, 107 RBI, 3 SB, .319 AVG, 82 R, 3.24 Total Sherpa Points
10.  Ryan Braun (Mil, OF) - 552 AB, 33 HR, 99 RBI, 18 SB, .292 AVG, 93 R, 3.33 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Hi everyone,

Here are the Top 10 performers through April for a Mixed League 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 9 HR, then a player with 3 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Zack Greinke (KC, SP) - 36.0 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 0.50 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 44 K, 3.79 Total Sherpa Points
2. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 83 AB, 8 HR, 28 RBI, 4 SB, .337 AVG, 22 R, 3.74 Total Sherpa Points
3. Ian Kinsler (Tex, 2B) - 86 AB, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 7 SB, .326 AVG, 18 R, 3.40 Total Sherpa Points
4. Raul Ibanez (Phi, OF) - 78 AB, 7 HR, 17 RBI, 3 SB, .359 AVG, 20 R, 3.17 Total Sherpa Points
5. Evan Longoria (TB, 3B) - 84 AB, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 1 SB, .369 AVG, 17 R, 3.12 Total Sherpa Points
6. Adrian Gonzalez (SD, 1B) - 81 AB, 9 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB, .333 AVG, 19 R, 3.09 Total Sherpa Points
7. Aaron Hill (Tor, 2B) - 101 AB, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB, .376 AVG, 16 R, 3.04 Total Sherpa Points
8. Johan Santana (NYM, SP) - 32.2 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 1.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 44 K, 2.99 Total Sherpa Points
9. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 73 AB, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 2 SB, .342 AVG, 18 R, 2.94 Total Sherpa Points
10.  Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 35.0 IP, 2 W, 0 SV, 1.54 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 36 K, 2.92 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)!  If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an AL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 33 HR, then a player with a forecast of 22 HR would be given a score of 0.67 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. CC Sabathia (NYY, SP) - 203 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.37 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 180 K, 3.77 Total Sherpa Points
2. Roy Halladay (Tor, SP) - 206 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 154 K, 3.71 Total Sherpa Points
3. Alex Rodriguez (NYY, 3B) - 448 AB, 33 HR, 99 RBI, 16 SB, .304 AVG, 96 R, 3.65 Total Sherpa Points
4. Matt Holliday (Oak, OF) - 548 AB, 24 HR, 97 RBI, 16 SB, .310 AVG, 96 R, 3.59 Total Sherpa Points
5. Miguel Cabrera (Det, 1B) - 533 AB, 30 HR, 107 RBI, 3 SB, .319 AVG, 82 R, 3.58 Total Sherpa Points
6. Ian Kinsler (Tex, 2B) - 529 AB, 23 HR, 78 RBI, 26 SB, .301 AVG, 101 R, 3.45 Total Sherpa Points
7. Josh Hamilton (Tex, OF) - 527 AB, 27 HR, 100 RBI, 9 SB, .296 AVG, 83 R, 3.17 Total Sherpa Points
8. Nick Markakis (Bal, OF) - 537 AB, 17 HR, 89 RBI, 8 SB, .313 AVG, 95 R, 3.15 Total Sherpa Points
9. Kevin Youkilis (Bos, 1B/3B) - 508 AB, 22 HR, 92 RBI, 4 SB, .311 AVG, 91 R, 3.14 Total Sherpa Points
10. Ichiro Suzuki (Sea, OF) - 576 AB, 6 HR, 4 RBI, 35 SB, .323 AVG, 88 R, 3.14 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Hi everyone,

Here are the Top 10 performers through April for an AL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 9 HR, then a player with 3 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Zack Greinke (KC, SP) - 36.0 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 0.50 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 44 K, 4.00 Total Sherpa Points
2. Ian Kinsler (Tex, 2B) - 86 AB, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 7 SB, .326 AVG, 18 R, 3.51 Total Sherpa Points
3. Evan Longoria (TB, 3B) - 84 AB, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 1 SB, .369 AVG, 17 R, 3.26 Total Sherpa Points
4. Aaron Hill (Tor, 2B) - 101 AB, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB, .376 AVG, 16 R, 3.16 Total Sherpa Points
5. Kevin Youkilis (Bos, 1B/3B) - 76 AB, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 1 SB, .395 AVG, 20 R, 3.00 Total Sherpa Points
6. Nick Markakis (Bal, OF) - 84 AB, 2 HR, 22 RBI, 0 SB, .381 AVG, 23 R, 2.97 Total Sherpa Points
7. Adam Jones (Bal, OF) - 78 AB, 4 HR, 18 RBI, 1 SB, .359 AVG, 24 R, 2.94 Total Sherpa Points
8. Robinson Cano (NYY, 2B) - 93 AB, 5 HR, 16 RBI, 1 SB, .366 AVG, 18 R, 2.91 Total Sherpa Points
9. Torii Hunter (LAA, OF) - 77 AB, 8 HR, 16 RBI, 1 SB, .325 AVG, 19 R, 2.85 Total Sherpa Points
10. Nick Swisher (NYY, 1B/OF) - 77 AB, 7 HR, 19 RBI, 0 SB, .312 AVG, 21 R, 2.76 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an NL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 110 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 55 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Johan Santana (NYM, SP) - 196 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 2.71 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 200 K, 3.85 Total Sherpa Points
2. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 482 AB, 35 HR, 110 RBI, 7 SB, .332 AVG, 96 R, 3.79 Total Sherpa Points
3. Matt Kemp (LAD, OF) - 577 AB, 19 HR, 88 RBI, 31 SB, .308 AVG, 101 R, 3.55 Total Sherpa Points
4. Alfonso Soriano (ChC, OF) - 567 AB, 37 HR, 85 RBI, 25 SB, .286 AVG, 102 R, 3.45 Total Sherpa Points
5. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 508 AB, 28 HR, 96 RBI, 12 SB, .313 AVG, 102 R, 3.44 Total Sherpa Points
6. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 549 AB, 29 HR, 81 RBI, 23 SB, .299 AVG, 98 R, 3.34 Total Sherpa Points
7. Ryan Braun (Mil, OF) - 552 AB, 33 HR, 99 RBI, 18 SB, .292 AVG, 93 R, 3.33 Total Sherpa Points
8. Carlos Beltran (NYM, OF) - 511 AB, 27 HR, 101 RBI, 19 SB, .295 AVG, 95 R, 3.25 Total Sherpa Points
9. David Wright (NYM, 3B) - 514 AB, 23 HR, 93 RBI, 18 SB, .305 AVG, 93 R, 3.21 Total Sherpa Points
10. Jose Reyes (NYM, SS) - 587 AB, 12 HR, 57 RBI, 51 SB, .291 AVG, 96 R, 3.19 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Hi everyone,

Here are the Top 10 performers through April for an NL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 9 HR, then a player with 3 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 83 AB, 8 HR, 28 RBI, 4 SB, .337 AVG, 22 R, 3.95 Total Sherpa Points
2. Johan Santana (NYM, SP) - 32.2 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 1.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 44 K, 3.38 Total Sherpa Points
3. Raul Ibanez (Phi, OF) - 78 AB, 7 HR, 17 RBI, 3 SB, .359 AVG, 20 R, 3.38 Total Sherpa Points
4. Adrian Gonzalez (SD, 1B) - 81 AB, 9 HR, 20 RBI, 1 SB, .333 AVG, 19 R, 3.26 Total Sherpa Points
5. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 35.0 IP, 2 W, 0 SV, 1.54 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 36 K, 3.24 Total Sherpa Points
6. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 73 AB, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 2 SB, .342 AVG, 18 R, 3.12 Total Sherpa Points
7. Jorge Cantu (Fla, 1B/3B) - 63 AB, 7 HR, 22 RBI, 1 SB, .365 AVG, 15 R, 3.01 Total Sherpa Points
8. Chad Billingsley (LAD, SP) - 33.2 IP, 4 W, 0 SV, 2.14 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 34 K, 3.00 Total Sherpa Points
9. Alfonso Soriano (ChC, OF) - 88 AB, 7 HR, 14 RBI, 4 SB, .284 AVG, 21 R, 2.86 Total Sherpa Points
10. Manny Ramirez (LAD, OF) - 78 AB, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 0 SB, .372 AVG, 19 R, 2.81 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com