The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Just wanted to let everyone in Sherpaville know that we’ve been quoted again on Forbes.com, this time in Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s piece on the players most likely to change teams before the July 31st trading deadline.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for a Mixed League 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 62 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 31 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 246 AB, 22 HR, 62 RBI, 5 SB, .333 AVG, 53 R, 3.80 Total Sherpa Points
2. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 97 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.69 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 92 K, 3.48 Total Sherpa Points
3. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 289 AB, 17 HR, 54 RBI, 8 SB, .311 AVG, 57 R, 3.46 Total Sherpa Points
4. Tim Lincecum (SF, SP) - 100 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 117 K, 3.36 Total Sherpa Points
5. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 273 AB, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 11 SB, .326 AVG, 49 R, 3.32 Total Sherpa Points
6. Matt Kemp (LAD, OF) - 304 AB, 10 HR, 46 RBI, 17 sB, .313 AVG, 49 R, 3.22 Total Sherpa Points
7. Carl Crawford (TB, OF) - 302 AB, 7 HR, 36 RBI, 30 SB, .301 AVG, 48 R, 3.19 Total Sherpa Points
8. Ryan Braun (Mil, OF) - 292 AB, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 8 SB, .301 AVG, 52 R, 3.17 Total Sherpa Points
9. Alex Rodriguez (NYY, 3B) - 256 AB, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 7 SB, .281 AVG, 51 R, 3.17 Total Sherpa Points
10. Roy Halladay (Tor, SP) - 144 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 3.00 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 112 K, 3.10 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the Top 10 performers through Week 14 for a Mixed League 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 32 HR, then a player with 24 HR would be given a score of 0.75 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 307 AB, 32 HR, 87 RBI, 10 SB, .332 AVG, 73 R, 3.83 Total Sherpa Points
2. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 130.0 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.01 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 129 K, 3.69 Total Sherpa Points
3. Tim Lincecum (SF, SP) - 127.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.33 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 149 K, 3.31 Total Sherpa Points
4. Zack Greinke (KC, SP) - 127.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.12 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 129 K, 3.22 Total Sherpa Points
5. Carl Crawford (TB, OF) - 353 AB, 8 HR, 39 RBI, 44 SB, .309 AVG, 58 R, 2.94 Total Sherpa Points
6. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 312 AB, 14 HR, 61 RBI, 13 SB, .349 AVG, 53 R, 2.94 Total Sherpa Points
7. Prince Fielder (Mil, 1B) - 308 AB, 22 HR, 78 RBI, 1 SB, .315 AVG, 58 R, 2.85 Total Sherpa Points
8. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 307 AB, 20 HR, 61 RBI, 9 SB, .313 AVG, 62 R, 2.81 Total Sherpa Points
9. Felix Hernandez (Sea, SP) - 124.2 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.53 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 121 K, 2.76 Total Sherpa Points
10. Justin Morneau (Min, 1B) - 334 AB, 21 HR, 70 RBI, 0 SB, .311 AVG, 59 R, 2.72 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an AL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 60 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 40 RBI would be given a score of 0.67 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Roy Halladay (Tor, SP) - 100 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 3.06 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 80 K, 3.77 Total Sherpa Points
2. CC Sabathia (NYY, SP) - 107 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 3.53 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 89 K, 3.57 Total Sherpa Points
3. Alex Rodriguez (NYY, 3B) - 256 AB, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 7 SB, .281 AVG, 51 R, 3.34 Total Sherpa Points
4. Zack Greinke (KC, SP) - 94 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.87 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 89 K, 3.29 Total Sherpa Points
5. Carl Crawford (TB, OF) - 302 AB, 7 HR, 36 RBI, 30 SB, .301 AVG, 47 R, 2.99 Total Sherpa Points
6. Miguel Cabrera (Det, 1B) - 283 AB, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 1 SB, .314 AVG, 45 R, 3.10 Total Sherpa Points
7. Bobby Abreu (LAA, OF) - 279 AB, 7 HR, 51 RBI, 15 SB, .301 AVG, 47 R, 2.99 Total Sherpa Points
8. Justin Morneau (Min, 1B) - 269 AB, 15 HR, 56 RBI, 0 SB, .305 AVG, 45 R, 2.96 Total Sherpa Points
9. Ichiro Suzuki (Sea, OF) - 305 AB, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 17 SB, .344 AVG, 43 R, 2.93 Total Sherpa Points
10. Nelson Cruz (Tex, OF) - 257 AB, 17 HR, 48 RBI, 10 SB, .276 AVG, 44 R, 2.90 Total Sherpa Points
11. Derek Jeter (NYY, SS) - 311 AB, 7 HR, 35 RBI, 12 SB, .315 AVG, 50 R, 2.90 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the Top 10 performers through Week 14 for an AL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 24 HR, then a player with 8 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Zack Greinke (KC, SP) - 127.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.12 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 129 K, 3.77 Total Sherpa Points
2. Felix Hernandez (Sea, SP) - 124.2, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.53 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 121 K, 3.21 Total Sherpa Points
3. Roy Halladay (Tor, SP) - 123.0 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 106 K, 3.18 Total Sherpa Points
4. Justin Morneau (Min, 1B) - 334 AB, 21 HR, 70 RBI, 0 SB, .311 AVG, 59 R, 3.16 Total Sherpa Points
5. Carl Crawford (TB, OF) - 353 AB, 8 HR, 39 RBI, 44 SB, .309 AVG, 58 R, 3.15 Total Sherpa Points
6. Edwin Jackson (Det, SP) - 121.2 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 2.51 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 97 K, 3.09 Total Sherpa Points
7. Torii Hunter (LAA, OF) - 285 AB, 17 HR, 65 RBI, 13 SB, .305 AVG, 56 R, 3.05 Total Sherpa Points
8. Justin Verlander (Det, SP) - 122.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 149 K, 2.94 Total Sherpa Points
9. Josh Beckett (Bos, SP) - 121.0 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.35 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 110 K, 2.92 Total Sherpa Points
10. Jered Weaver (LAA, SP) - 120.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 3.22 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 104 K, 2.92 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an NL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 62 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 31 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 246 AB, 22 HR, 62 RBI, 5 SB, .333 AVG, 53 R, 4.15 Total Sherpa Points
2. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 289 AB, 17 HR, 54 RBI, 8 SB, .311 AVG, 57 R, 3.80 Total Sherpa Points
3. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 273 AB, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 11 SB, .326 AVG, 49 R, 3.74 Total Sherpa Points
4. Matt Kemp (LAD, OF) - 304 AB, 10 HR, 46 RBI, 17 SB, .313 AVG, 49 R, 3.66 Total Sherpa Points
5. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 97 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.69 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 92 K, 3.48 Total Sherpa Points
6. Ryan Braun (Mil, OF) - 292 AB, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 8 SB, .301 AVG, 52 R, 3.47 Total Sherpa Points
7. David Wright (NYM, 3B) - 273 AB, 8 HR, 44 RBI, 14 SB, .319 AVG, 48 R, 3.40 Total Sherpa Points
8. Tim Lincecum (SF, SP) - 100 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 117 K, 3.36 Total Sherpa Points
9. Prince Fielder (Mil, 1B) - 267 AB, 18 HR, 58 RBI, 1 SB, .296 AVG, 47 R, 3.14 Total Sherpa Points
10. Shane Victorino (Phi, OF) - 303 AB, 6 HR, 34 RBI, 15 SB, .300 AVG, 54 R, 3.08 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the Top 10 performers through Week 14 for an NL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 32 HR, then a player with 16 HR would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 307 AB, 32 HR, 87 RBI, 10 SB, .332 AVG, 73 R, 4.10 Total Sherpa Points
2. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 130.0 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.01 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 129 K, 3.69 Total Sherpa Points
3. Tim Lincecum (SF, SP) - 127.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.33 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 149 K, 3.30 Total Sherpa Points
4. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 312 AB, 14 HR, 61 RBI, 13 SB, .349 AVG, 53 R, 3.28 Total Sherpa Points
5. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 307 AB, 20 HR, 61 RBI, 9 SB, .313 AVG, 62 R, 3.03 Total Sherpa Points
6. Prince Fielder (Mil, 1B) - 308 AB, 22 HR, 78 RBI, 1 SB, .315 AVG, 58 R, 3.01 Total Sherpa Points
7. Matt Kemp (LAD, OF) - 325 AB, 11 HR, 50 RBI, 19 SB, .320 AVG, 48 R, 2.85 Total Sherpa Points
8. Ryan Braun (Mil, OF) - 332 AB, 16 HR, 58 RBI, 7 SB, .310 AVG, 61 R, 2.82 Total Sherpa Points
9. David Wright (NYM, 3B) - 327 AB, 5 HR, 44 RBI, 20 SB, .324 AVG, 56 R, 2.82 Total Sherpa Points
10. Raul Ibanez (Phi, OF) - 259 AB, 22 HR, 60 RBI, 4 SB, .309 AVG, 53 R, 2.69 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Just wanted to let everyone in Sherpaville know that I’ll be appearing as a guest on the J. P. Godsey show this afternoon just after 4:30pm EDT on WPMH, 640 AM in the Chesapeake, VA area.  J. P. was voted the “Happiest Man in America” by USA Today Magazine in 2003, so I’m looking forward to a fun-filled interview!

Hope you’re able to tune in!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

So, it’s Sunday night or Monday morning, and your league’s weekly lineup submissions are due.  You’re trying to decide among three starting pitchers (whether on your current roster or not) to fill your last pitching slot.  How should you go about it?

You could “go with your gut” and hope for the best (good luck with that).  You could look up each pitcher’s historical record (assuming he has one) against his upcoming opponent(s) and use that as a guide, ignoring the fact that a team’s roster is likely to experience significant turnover from season to season that will render historical results obsolete.  You could rely on the Remainder-of-Season Forecasts in the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s In-season Updates (shameless self-promotion).

While the third option is definitely better than the first two, it still leaves out one crucial component if you’re trying to make a short-term decision on which pitcher to start:  the quality of the pitcher’s opponent.  How can this be quantified?  The same way you would quantify the pitcher’s results - look at the historical data.

To assess a starting pitcher’s upcoming matchup(s) we want to use opponents’ success (or lack thereof) against a specific team.  For example, if I play in a league that uses the standard 5 pitching categories (Wins, Saves, Ks, ERA, WHIP), I’ll want to look at MLB Opponent Pitching Stats in each category that involves starting pitchers, so that eliminates Saves from my list.

I want to set my scoring system up so that the least desirable opponents have the highest scores, and the most desirable opponents have the lowest scores.  The least desirable opponent would have the highest number of Wins (equivalently, the lowest number of losses), the biggest difference between AB and Strikeouts (or, if you prefer, the lowest Strikeout per AB rate), the highest number of Runs Scored (using this as a proxy for ERA), and the highest number of Walks + Hits (using this as a proxy for WHIP).  Conversely, the most desirable opponent would have the lowest number of Wins (equivalently, the highest number of losses), the highest Strikeout per AB rate, the lowest number of Runs Scored, and the lowest number of Walks + Hits.

We can set up a scoring system for which the “best” team in each category receives a score of 1.00, and all other teams receive a score between 0 and 1 depending on the ratio of their result to the result of the best team in each category.  Thus, the maximum score is the number of pitching categories under consideration (4 in my example).  Add up a team’s results in each category to get its overall score; again, the lower the overall score, the more desirable the opponent.

Based on games through 7/3/09, here’s how the 30 MLB teams rank using the 4 categories in my example (with their accompanying score):

1. Was 2.96 (max score is 4.00)
2. SD 3.00
3. KC 3.01
4. Oak 3.07
5. Ari 3.11
6. ChC 3.16
7. Cin 3.21
8. SF 3.23
9. Sea 3.23
10. Hou 3.24
11. Pit 3.29
12. Atl 3.30
13. Tex 3.36
14. CWS 3.37
15. Bal 3.38
16. Mil 3.39
17. Fla 3.40
18. NYM 3.40
19. Cle 3.41
20. StL 3.43
21. Col 3.44
22. Det 3.44
23. Min 3.53
24. LAA 3.53
25. Phi 3.58
26. Tor 3.65
27. Bos 3.71
28. TB 3.72
29. LAD 3.73
30. NYY 3.77

No significant changes since the last rankings update (on 6/21/09), but it’s important to take a quick glance at a team’s current overall health compared to its health season-to-date.  Tracking the standings over time (weekly or bi-weekly updates are best) will give you a good sense of whether a team’s offenses is improving, treading water, or getting worse.

The approach I’ve outlined above can take some of the guesswork out of selecting starting pitchers for your weekly lineups.  Of course, use your common sense - given the choice, I’d much rather start Tim Lincecum against the Dodgers than start Livan Hernandez or Russ Ortiz against the Nationals.  However, if you’re deciding among several pitchers of similar quality, this analysis can be extremely useful.

Until next time!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter