The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

I recently concluded my wrap-up for the 2009 season, ranking the top Hitters and Pitchers for several widely used formats.  Just out of curiosity I checked my rankings for the 2008 season and compared them to the MVP and Cy Young award winners in both leagues.  The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa rankings correctly predicted both MVPs (Albert Pujols and Dustin Pedroia) and the NL Cy Young (Tim Lincecum).  The only discrepancy was with the AL CY Young, where Cliff Lee, who was second in the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa rankings, beat out Roy Halladay, who was first in the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa rankings.

Since the NL MVP race seems to be the only 2009 race with a clear winner, I thought it would be fun to use the 2009 Fantasy Baseball Sherpa rankings to predict the results of several of the awards which are in doubt.  Here are my predictions:

NL MVP - Albert Pujols

AL MVP - Joe Mauer

NL Cy Young - Tim Lincecum

AL Cy Young - Zack Greinke

NL Rookie of the Year - Chris Coghlan

AL Rookie of the Year - Andrew Bailey

Actually, I cheated a bit - I assumed that the MVP awards would go to hitters.  If we allow pitchers to be eligible for the MVP, which technically they are, then according to the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa rankings, Zack Greinke should win the AL MVP too.  I’ll be shocked if that actually happens, but if it does, remember that you read it here first!

I’ll do a follow-up post after all the awards are announced to see how accurately the rankings predicted the award winners.

In the meantime, enjoy the playoffs!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This is the sixth and final post in a series taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll finish the series by reviewing the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including Cliff Lee’s Indians’ stats only (he ranked 32nd based on 152 IP).  The stats from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included.

1. Zack Greinke (Preseason rank was 16) - KC, SP

• Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 237 K, 3.55 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 206 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.93 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 179 K, 1.82 Sherpa Pts

2. Felix Hernandez (23) - SEA, SP

• Actual stats: 232 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 211 K, 3.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 198 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 174 K, 1.57 Sherpa Pts

3. Roy Halladay (2) - TOR, SP

• Actual stats: 239 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 208 K, 3.09 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 240 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 173 K, 3.31 Sherpa Pts

4. CC Sabathia (1) - NYY, SP

• Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 194 K, 3.17 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 235 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 219 K, 3.92 Sherpa Pts

5. Justin Verlander (34) - DET, SP

• Actual stats: 232.1 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 264 K, 3.06 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 198 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 160 K, 1.29 Sherpa Pts

6. Jon Lester (39) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 203.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 225 K, 2.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 177 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 4.27 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 135 K, 1.47 Sherpa Pts

7. Josh Beckett (8) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 207.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 194 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 194 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.22 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 182 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts

8. Andrew Bailey (186) - OAK, RP

• Actual stats: 81.1 IP, 6 W, 26 SV, 1.88 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 89 K, 2.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 45 IP, 2 W, 0 SV, 6.14 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 49 K, 0.19 Sherpa Pts

9. Mariano Rivera (7) - NYY, RP

• Actual stats: 65.1 IP, 3 W, 44 SV, 1.79 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 71 K, 2.14 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 72 IP, 3 W, 35 SV, 2.38 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 72 K, 2.51 Sherpa Pts

10. Edwin Jackson (232) - DET, SP

• Actual stats: 209 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 156 K, 2.11 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 138 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 5.67 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 99 K, -0.14 Sherpa Pts

As you can see, there were a couple of big surprises on this list, namely Andrew Bailey and Edwin Jackson. It’s also interesting to note that Red Sox RP Jonathan Papelbon was only the 5th-ranked Closer, trailing Bailey, Rivera, Joe Nathan, and even David Aardsma.  Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only four of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

20. John Lackey (3) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 176.1 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 139 K, 1.60 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 223 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.71 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 181 K, 2.85 Sherpa Pts

57. Kevin Slowey (4) - MIN, SP

• Actual stats: 90.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.39 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 75 K, 0.78 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 180 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.15 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 151 K, 2.60 Sherpa Pts

18. Jonathan Papelbon (5) - BOS, RP

• Actual stats: 67 IP, 1 W, 38 SV, 1.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 76 K, 1.69 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 68 IP, 3 W, 38 SV, 2.38 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 82 K, 2.56 Sherpa Pts

23. James Shields (6) - TB, SP

• Actual stats: 219.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.14 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 167 K, 1.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 215 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.14 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 171 K, 2.54 Sherpa Pts

11. Joe Nathan (9) - MIN, RP

• Actual stats: 65 IP, 2 W, 45 SV, 2.22 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 83 K, 2.07 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 69 IP, 3 W, 35 SV, 2.48 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 79 K, 2.42 Sherpa Pts

N/A Justin Duchscherer (10) - OAK, SP

• Actual stats: N/A - out entire season
• Projected stats: 163 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 123 K, 2.26 Sherpa Pts

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to develop our projections for the 2010 season.  We’ll post from time to time during the off-season as warranted by developments.

Enjoy the rest of the playoffs!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This is the fifth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including Matt Holliday’s A’s stats only (he ranked 74th based on 346 At-Bats).  The stats from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included.

1. Joe Mauer (Preseason rank was 75) - MIN, C

• Actual stats: 509 AB, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 4 SB, .367 AVG, 90 R, 3.32 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 437 AB, 8 HR, 66 RBI, 4 SB, .309 AVG, 72 R, 1.87 Sherpa Pts

2. Miguel Cabrera (2) - DET, 1B

• Actual stats: 595 AB, 33 HR, 101 RBI, 6 SB, .329 AVG, 95 R, 3.29 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 612 AB, 35 HR, 125 RBI, 3 SB, .310 AVG, 93 R, 3.46 Sherpa Pts

3. Mark Teixeira (7) - NYY, 1B

• Actual stats: 603 AB, 39 HR, 121 RBI, 2 SB, .294 AVG, 102 R, 3.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 557 AB, 32 HR, 113 RBI, 1 SB, .303 AVG, 96 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

4. Derek Jeter (24) - NYY, SS

• Actual stats: 627 AB, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 30 SB, .335 AVG, 107 R, 3.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 680 AB, 12 HR, 81 RBI, 17 SB, .307 AVG, 106 R, 2.78 Sherpa Pts

5. Carl Crawford (17) - TB, OF

• Actual stats: 598 AB, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 60 SB, .306 AVG, 95 R, 3.08 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 600 AB, 12 HR, 78 RBI, 44 SB, .293 AVG, 94 R, 2.88 Sherpa Pts

6. Adam Lind (65) - TOR, OF

• Actual stats: 587 AB, 35 HR, 114 RBI, 1 SB, .305 AVG, 93 R, 3.08 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 494 AB, 18 HR, 84 RBI, 2 SB, .289 AVG, 65 R, 2.01 Sherpa Pts

7. Aaron Hill (81) - TOR, 2B

• Actual stats: 670 AB, 36 HR, 107 RBI, 5 SB, .288 AVG, 102 R, 3.02 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 554 AB, 11 HR, 62 RBI, 5 SB, .287 AVG, 73 R, 1.76 Sherpa Pts

8. Robinson Cano (36) - NYY, 2B

• Actual stats: 628 AB, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB, .322 AVG, 103 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 679 AB, 18 HR, 96 RBI, 4 SB, .296 AVG, 88 R, 2.55 Sherpa Pts

9. Jason Bay (27) - BOS, OF

• Actual stats: 522 AB, 36 HR, 116 RBI, 13 SB, .266 AVG, 102 R, 2.94 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 588 AB, 30 HR, 102 RBI, 8 SB, .274 AVG, 103 R, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

10. Kendry Morales (8) - LAA, 1B

• Actual stats: 559 AB, 34 HR, 107 RBI, 2 SB, .304 AVG, 85 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 404 AB, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 1 SB, .297 AVG, 56 R, 1.71 Sherpa Pts

There were a number of surprises on this list.  I thought Adam Lind and Kendry Morales would be good, but not this good.  I didn’t think Joe Mauer and Aaron Hill could stay healthy long enough to accumulate the necessary At-Bats to be top fantasy producers, but I was mistaken. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only two of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other eight, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

74. Matt Holliday (1) - OAK, OF

• Actual stats: 346 AB, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 12 SB, .286 AVG, 52 R, 1.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 616 AB, 31 HR, 110 RBI, 20 SB, .318 AVG, 117 R, 3.85 Sherpa Pts

83. Josh Hamilton (3) - TEX, OF

• Actual stats: 336 AB, 10 HR, 54 RBI, 8 SB, .268 AVG, 43 R, 1.20 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 601 AB, 33 HR, 117 RBI, 8 SB, .303 AVG, 98 R, 3.34 Sherpa Pts

50. David Ortiz (4) - BOS, DH

• Actual stats: 533 AB, 28 HR, 97 RBI, 0 SB, .238 AVG, 76 R, 1.89 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 533 AB, 36 HR, 120 RBI, 2 SB, .295 AVG, 105 R, 3.21 Sherpa Pts

70. Vladimir Guerrero (5) - LAA, OF

• Actual stats: 377 AB, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 2 SB, .294 AVG, 58 R, 1.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 568 AB, 28 HR, 107 RBI, 6 SB, .315 AVG, 88 R, 3.17 Sherpa Pts

23. Alex Rodriguez (6) - NYY, 3B

• Actual stats: 437 AB, 28 HR, 93 RBI, 14 SB, .284 AVG, 76 R, 2.50 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 443 AB, 33 HR, 98 RBI, 16 SB, .302 AVG, 95 R, 3.14 Sherpa Pts

64. Grady Sizemore (8) - CLE, OF

• Actual stats: 436 AB, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 13 SB, .248 AVG, 73 R, 1.66 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 637 AB, 30 HR, 84 RBI, 33 SB, .275 AVG, 113 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

13. Ichiro Suzuki (9) - SEA, OF

• Actual stats: 628 AB, 11 HR, 46 RBI, 26 SB, .352 AVG, 87 R, 2.80 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 667 AB, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 41 SB, .324 AVG, 103 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

17. Ian Kinsler (10) - TEX, 2B

• Actual stats: 555 AB, 31 HR, 86 RBI, 31 SB, .254 AVG, 99 R, 2.68 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 603 AB, 22 HR, 80 RBI, 27 SB, .297 AVG, 113 R, 3.09 Sherpa Pts 

As you might suspect, the biggest culprits for off-the-mark projections are injuries (i.e.- a lower-than-expected number of ABs) and/or a substandard AVG, which has ripple effects through other categories, such as RBI and R. 

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to start developing our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll conclude this series with a look at the 2009 top 10 Pitchers in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This is the fourth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll review the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including Cliff Lee’s Phillies’ stats only (he ranked 47th based on 79.2 IP) and Jake Peavy’s Padres’ stats only (he ranked 59th based on 81.2 IP).

1. Tim Lincecum (Preseason rank was 3) - SF, SP

• Actual stats: 225.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 261 K, 3.46 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 220 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 259 K, 3.20 Sherpa Pts

2. Javier Vazquez (30) - ATL, SP

• Actual stats: 219.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 238 K, 3.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 213 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 203 K, 1.62 Sherpa Pts

3. Chris Carpenter (190) - STL, SP

• Actual stats: 192.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.24 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 144 K, 3.25 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 50 IP, 3 IP, 0 SV, 3.96 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 27 K, 0.30 Sherpa Pts

4. Dan Haren (6) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 229.1 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 223 K, 3.20 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 216 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.63 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 193 K, 2.76 Sherpa Pts

5. Adam Wainwright (10) - STL, SP

• Actual stats: 227 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 2.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 204 K, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 214 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 146 K, 2.36 Sherpa Pts

6. Josh Johnson (107) - FLA, SP

• Actual stats: 204.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.08 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 186 K, 2.62 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 175 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.61 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 152 K, 1.78 Sherpa Pts

7. Matt Cain (22) - SF, SP

• Actual stats: 212.2 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 2.88 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 166 K, 2.58 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 208 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.94 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 178 K, 1.52 Sherpa Pts

8. Jair Jurrjens (36) - ATL, SP

• Actual stats: 207 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 2.61 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 143 K, 2.50 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 198 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 148 K, 1.35 Sherpa Pts

9. Wandy Rodriguez (69) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 199.2 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 2.97 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 190 K, 2.42 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 151 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.47 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 133 K, 0.91 Sherpa Pts

10. Randy Wolf (105) - LAD, SP

• Actual stats: 209.1 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.22 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 158 K, 2.41 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 157 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.65 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 135 K, 0.58 Sherpa Pts

Wandy Rodriguez and Randy Wolf were complete surprises to me - they both pitched ~50 innings more than I’d projected for them, but of course that’s primarily a result of the fact they pitched much better than I expected. Chris Carpenter is the classic boom-or-bust pitcher coming off an injury.  Before you run out and stock up on pitchers coming back from injuries in 2010, think of Ben Sheets, who represents the flip side of that coin.  In theory Strikeouts and WHIP should be easier to predict than ERA, Wins, and Saves (since the latter group are more a function of randomness and factors beyond a Pitcher’s direct control), but those predictions aren’t always the most accurate in practice. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only three of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other seven, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

16. Johan Santana (1) - NYM, SP

• Actual stats: 166.2 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 146 K, 2.06 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 225 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 218 K, 3.78 Sherpa Pts

59. Jake Peavy (2) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 81.2 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 3.97 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 92 K, 0.88 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 213 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 215 K, 3.26 Sherpa Pts

37. Cole Hamels (4) - PHI, SP

• Actual stats: 193.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 168 K, 1.31 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 197 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.56 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 185 K, 2.97 Sherpa Pts

219. Brandon Webb (5) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 4 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 13.50 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 2 K, -0.12 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 226 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 181 K, 2.91 Sherpa Pts

42. Rich Harden (7) - CHC, SP

• Actual stats: 141 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.09 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 171 K, 1.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 143 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.71 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 161 K, 2.67 Sherpa Pts

39. Roy Oswalt (8) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 181.1 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 4.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 138 K, 1.23 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 212 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 161 K, 2.54 Sherpa Pts

60. Carlos Marmol (9) - CHC, RP

• Actual stats: 73 IP, 2 W, 15 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 91 K, 0.87 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 81 IP, 4 W, 25 SV, 2.45 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 107 K, 2.42 Sherpa Pts

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to develope our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This is the third in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including only Matt Holliday’s Cardinals’ stats (he ranked 56th overall based on 235 At-Bats).

1. Albert Pujols (Preseason rank was 1) - STL, 1B

• Actual stats: 555 AB, 47 HR, 134 RBI, 16 SB, .328 AVG, 122 R, 4.03 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 562 AB, 39 HR, 118 RBI, 5 SB, .331 AVG, 106 R, 3.54 Sherpa Pts

2. Hanley Ramirez (3) - FLA, SS

• Actual stats: 574 AB, 24 HR, 105 RBI, 26 SB, .341 AVG, 100 R, 3.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 635 AB, 36 HR, 93 RBI, 27 SB, .299 AVG, 119 R, 3.27 Sherpa Pts

3. Ryan Braun (7) - MIL, OF

• Actual stats: 620 AB, 31 HR, 108 RBI, 18 SB, .318 AVG, 110 R, 3.40 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 639 AB, 38 HR, 113 RBI, 22 SB, .288 AVG, 108 R, 3.20 Sherpa Pts

4. Prince Fielder (24) - MIL, 1B

• Actual stats: 581 AB, 44 HR, 138 RBI, 2 SB, .298 AVG, 101 R, 3.15 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 584 AB, 38 HR, 103 RBI, 4 SB, .277 AVG, 93 R, 2.44 Sherpa Pts

5. Matt Kemp (2) - LAD, OF

• Actual stats: 598 AB, 26 HR, 100 RBI, 34 SB, .301 AVG, 96 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 673 AB, 22 HR, 98 RBI, 35 SB, .306 AVG, 117 R, 3.41 Sherpa Pts

6. Ryan Howard (11) - PHI, 1B

• Actual stats: 608 AB, 43 HR, 138 RBI, 8 SB, .276 AVG, 102 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 587 AB, 51 HR, 146 RBI, 1 SB, .269 AVG, 104 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts

7. Chase Utley (16) - PHI, 2B

• Actual stats: 565 AB, 31 HR, 93 RBI, 23 SB, .285 AVG, 112 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 495 AB, 25 HR, 87 RBI, 11 SB, .309 AVG, 95 R, 2.66 Sherpa Pts

8. Troy Tulowitzki (67) - COL, SS

• Actual stats: 535 AB, 31 HR, 90 RBI, 20 SB, .299 AVG, 99 R, 2.88 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 578 AB, 16 HR, 77 RBI, 6 SB, .268 AVG, 90 R, 1.78 Sherpa Pts

9. Mark Reynolds (43) - ARI, 1B/3B

• Actual stats: 567 AB, 44 HR, 101 RBI, 24 SB, .263 AVG, 96 R, 2.86 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 518 AB, 29 HR, 99 RBI, 6 SB, .263 AVG, 94 R, 2.14 Sherpa Pts

10. Derrek Lee (18) - CHC, 1B

• Actual stats: 525 AB, 35 HR, 111 RBI, 1 SB, .309 AVG, 91 R, 2.85 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 621 AB, 23 HR, 92 RBI, 12 SB, .296 AVG, 97 R, 2.64 Sherpa Pts

The most interesting observation from my perspective - Hanley Ramirez’ shift from first to third in the Marlins’ batting order had exactly the opposite effect from what I’d projected. Instead of increasing his power numbers at the expense of his batting average, the reverse occurred.  Also, it’s interesting to see how a higher-than-expected Stolen Base total can lead to a large spike in a player’s fantasy value (e.g.- Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Troy Tulowitzki, Mark Reynolds, Ryan Howard). Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only four of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

21. David Wright (4) - NYM, 3B

• Actual stats: 529 AB, 10 HR, 70 RBI, 26 SB, .304 AVG, 87 R, 2.35 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 590 AB, 29 HR, 114 RBI, 21 SB, .310 AVG, 107 R, 3.32 Sherpa Pts

140. Jose Reyes (5) - NYM, SS

• Actual stats: 147 AB, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB, .279 AVG, 18 R, 0.53 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 674 AB, 15 HR, 67 RBI, 63 SB, .292 AVG, 116 R, 3.25 Sherpa Pts

77. Alfonso Soriano (6) - ChC, OF

• Actual stats: 477 AB, 20 HR, 55 RBI, 9 SB, .241 AVG, 64 R, 1.28 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 652 AB, 41 HR, 97 RBI, 28 SB, .285 AVG, 111 R, 3.24 Sherpa Pts

53. Carlos Beltran (8) - NYM, OF

• Actual stats: 300 AB, 10 HR, 48 RBI, 11 SB, .330 AVG, 49 R, 1.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 587 AB, 33 HR, 118 RBI, 24 SB, .281 AVG, 115 R, 3.09 Sherpa Pts

51. Manny Ramirez (9) - LAD, OF

• Actual stats: 344 AB, 19 HR, 62 RBI, 0 SB, .294 AVG, 62 R, 1.60 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 538 AB, 33 HR, 113 RBI, 1 SB, .320 AVG, 97 R, 3.05 Sherpa Pts

33. Lance Berkman (10) - HOU, 1B

• Actual stats: 449 AB, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 7 SB, .272 AVG, 72 R, 1.91 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 549 AB, 33 HR, 110 RBI, 12 SB, .302 AVG, 103 R, 3.03 Sherpa Pts 

We’re gearing up here in Sherpaville to develop our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Pitchers in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This entry is the second in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll continue with the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 mixed league format.

1. Zack Greinke (Preseason rank was 37) - KC, SP
   • Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 237 K, 3.55 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
   • Projected stats: 206 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.93 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 179 K, 1.82 Sherpa Pts
2. Tim Lincecum (4) - SF, SP
   • Actual stats: 225.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 261 K, 3.46 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 220 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 259 K, 3.20 Sherpa Pts
3. Javier Vazquez (45) - ATL, SP
   • Actual stats: 219.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 238 K, 3.21 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 213 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 203 K, 1.62 Sherpa Pts
4. Felix Hernandez (50) -SEA, SP
   • Actual stats: 232 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 211 K, 3.19 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 198 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 174 K, 1.57 Sherpa Pts
5. Dan Haren (7) - ARI, SP
   • Actual stats: 229.1 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 223 K, 3.10 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 216 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.63 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 193 K, 2.75 Sherpa Pts
6. Roy Halladay (3) - TOR, SP
   • Actual stats: 239 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 208 K, 3.09 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 240 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 173 K, 3.31 Sherpa Pts
7. Chris Carpenter (285) - STL, SP
   • Actual stats: 192.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.24 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 144 K, 3.06 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 50 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 3.96 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 27 K, 0.35 Sherpa Pts
8. Adam Wainwright (13) - STL, SP
   • Actual stats: 227 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 2.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 204 K, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 214 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 146 K, 2.36 Sherpa Pts
9. CC Sabathia (2) - NYY, SP
   • Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 194 K, 2.94 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 235 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 219 K, 3.68 Sherpa Pts
10. Justin Verlander (73) - DET, SP
    • Actual stats: 232.1 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 264 K, 2.86 Sherpa Pts
    • Projected stats: 198 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 160 K, 1.29 Sherpa Pts

As was the case last year, the most interesting observation from my perspective is the relative difficulty in projecting W, ERA and WHIP vs. projecting Ks. Injuries obviously impact the actual rankings (see Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, and Brandon Webb below), but so do incorrect initial estimates regarding Innings Pitched. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only four of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

27. Johan Santana (1) - NYM, SP

• Actual stats: 166.2 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 146 K, 1.92 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 225 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 218 K, 3.72 Sherpa Pts

63. Jake Peavy (5) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 101.2 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 110 K, 1.36 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 213 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 215 K, 3.20 Sherpa Pts

402. Brandon Webb (6) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 4 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 13.50 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 2 K, -0.10 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 226 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 181 K, 2.89 Sherpa Pts

65. Cole Hamels (9) - PHI, SP

• Actual stats: 193.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 168 K, 1.36 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 197 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.56 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 185 K, 2.71 Sherpa Pts

74. Rich Harden (9) - CHC, SP

• Actual stats: 141 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.09 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 171 K, 1.22 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 143 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.71 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 161 K, 2.62 Sherpa Pts

69. Roy Oswalt (10) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 181.1 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 4.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 138 K, 1.27 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 212 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 161 K, 2.53 Sherpa Pts

We’ll soon be starting work here in Sherpaville on our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This will be the first in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. Today I’ll start with the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 mixed league format.  The statistics from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included here.

1. Albert Pujols (Preseason rank was 2) - STL, 1B
   • Actual stats: 555 AB, 47 HR, 134 RBI, 16 SB, .328 AVG, 122 R, 3.85 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
   • Projected stats: 562 AB, 39 HR, 118 RBI, 5 SB, .331 AVG, 106 R, 3.43 Sherpa Pts
2. Hanley Ramirez (4) - FLA, SS
   • Actual stats: 574 AB, 24 HR, 105 RBI, 26 SB, .341 AVG, 100 R, 3.27 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 635 AB, 36 HR, 93 RBI, 27 SB, .299 AVG, 119 R, 3.27 Sherpa Pts
3. Ryan Braun (8) - MIL, OF
   • Actual stats: 620 AB, 31 HR, 108 RBI, 18 SB, .318 AVG, 110 R, 3.20 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 639 AB, 38 HR, 113 RBI, 22 SB, .288 AVG, 108 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts
4. Prince Fielder (49) -MIL, 1B
   • Actual stats: 581 AB, 44 HR, 138 RBI, 2 SB, .298 AVG, 101 R, 3.15 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 584 AB, 38 HR, 103 RBI, 4 SB, .277 AVG, 93 R, 2.44 Sherpa Pts
5. Joe Mauer (126) - MIN, C
   • Actual stats: 509 AB, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 4 SB, .367 AVG, 90 R, 3.04 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 437 AB, 8 HR, 66 RBI, 4 SB, .309 AVG, 72 R, 1.73 Sherpa Pts
6. Ryan Howard (13) - PHI, 1B
   • Actual stats: 608 AB, 43 HR, 138 RBI, 8 SB, .276 AVG, 102 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 587 AB, 51 HR, 146 RBI, 1 SB, .269 AVG, 104 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts
7. Miguel Cabrera (9) - DET, 1B
   • Actual stats: 595 AB, 33 HR, 101 RBI, 6 SB, .329 AVG, 95 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 612 AB, 35 HR, 125 RBI, 3 SB, .310 AVG, 93 R, 3.05 Sherpa Pts
8. Derek Jeter (30) - NYY, SS
   • Actual stats: 627 AB, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 30 SB, .335 AVG, 107 R, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 680 AB, 12 HR, 81 RBI, 17 SB, .307 AVG, 106 R, 2.63 Sherpa Pts
9. Matt Kemp (3) - LAD, OF
   • Actual stats: 598 AB, 26 HR, 100 RBI, 34 SB, .301 AVG, 96 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 673 AB, 22 HR, 98 RBI, 35 SB, .306 AVG, 117 R, 3.29 Sherpa Pts
10. Carl Crawford (27) - TB, OF
    • Actual stats: 598 AB, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 60 SB, .306 AVG, 95 R, 2.92 Sherpa Pts
    • Projected stats: 600 AB, 12 HR, 78 RBI, 44 SB, .293 AVG, 94 R, 2.65 Sherpa Pts

Albert Pujols captured the top spot for the second straight season.  AVG remains the most difficult hitting category to project. Injuries obviously impact the actual rankings (e.g. - Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran), but so do changes in batting order position (e.g. - Matt Kemp). Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 5 of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list (that was also the case in 2008). Who were the other five, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

13. Matt Holliday (1) - OAK/STL, OF

• Actual stats: 581 AB, 24 HR, 109 RBI, 14 SB, .313 AVG, 94 R, 2.79 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 616 AB, 31 HR, 110 RBI, 20 SB, .318 AVG, 117 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts

54. David Wright (5) - NYM, 3B

• Actual stats: 529 AB, 10 HR, 70 RBI, 26 SB, .304 AVG, 87 R, 2.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 590 AB, 29 HR, 114 RBI, 21 SB, .310 AVG, 107 R, 3.21 Sherpa Pts

259. Jose Reyes (6) - NYM, SS

• Actual stats: 147 AB, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB, .279 AVG, 18 R, 0.53 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 674 AB, 15 HR, 67 RBI, 63 SB, .292 AVG, 116 R, 3.14 Sherpa Pts

165. Alfonso Soriano (7) - CHC, OF

• Actual stats: 477 AB, 20 HR, 55 RBI, 9 SB, .241 AVG, 64 R, 1.07 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 652 AB, 41 HR, 97 RBI, 28 SB, .285 AVG, 111 R, 3.12 Sherpa Pts

116. Carlos Beltran (10) - NYM, OF

• Actual stats: 300 AB, 10 HR, 48 RBI, 11 SB, .330 AVG, 49 R, 1.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 587 AB, 33 HR, 118 RBI, 24 SB, .281 AVG, 115 R, 2.99 Sherpa Pts

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to develop projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2009 top 10 Pitchers in a mixed league 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page