2010 Fantasy Baseball - Overvalued & Undervalued Players by Position (Sat 2/27/10)
Hi everyone!
As the Northeast digs out from yet another snowstorm, I figured this would be a good time to share some thoughts on the upcoming fantasy baseball season. Pitchers and catchers have already reported, position players are starting to report, and the seemingly interminable Johnny Damon saga is finally over, so let’s get right to it.
First off, the Sherpa’s 2010 Preseason Projections are now available You can customize your player rankings to reflect the unique characteristics of YOUR league (# teams, roster requirements by position, scoring categories), and a subscription allows you to store info for up to 3 teams so that you don’t have to re-enter the info from scratch when you want to view the rankings in the future. And yes, the player projections will be updated continuously throughout Spring Training to ensure that you have the most up-to-date information heading into your draft or auction (e.g. - Felipe Lopez’ revised projections already reflect his signing with the Cardinals).
There are currently 500 hitters and 300 pitchers in the database; I’ll be adding roughly another 200 pitchers (mostly long reliever types) over the course of the next week. There should already be enough players in the database for everyone except those who play in extremely deep “only” leagues (e.g. - 16-team “only” leagues with 30-man rosters), but should you find a player you’re particularly interested in who isn’t yet in the database, please let me know, and I’ll move them to the top of the pile.
I’ve already taken part in a number of auctions and drafts for the upcoming season - some mocks, some for real. Rather than give you a player-by-player “analysis” of my teams and predict victory for myself, I figured it would be more useful to you if I shared some thoughts on overvalued and undervalued players by position based on what I’ve witnessed so far.
Catchers
Overvalued
- Joe Mauer - I’m certainly not questioning his talent, but there definitely are some reasons for concern. Will his balky back hold up for another entire season? How will the Twins’ new stadium, Target Field, affect his power totals? I could make a strong case that Victor Martinez may actually have greater fantasy value this season than Mauer.
Undervalued
- Giovany Soto - His 2009 season was a disaster. He played in the World Baseball Classic, then showed up for Spring Training out of shape, and it was all downhill from there. However, even if he doesn’t perform quite as well as he did in 2008, he should still be valued more highly than guys like Kurt Suzuki, Miguel Montero, and Russell Martin.
- Mike Napoli - Admittedly, there’s a healthy skepticism regarding whether he can sustain a decent batting average, but based on both his major league and minor league track record, I believe he can. The power and “speed” (noteworthy only because he’s a catcher) are both for real.
First Basemen
Overvalued
- Adrian Gonzalez - He seemingly traded batting average for power following the 2006 season. Until he can raise his batting average from the .280 range to the .290-.300 range, he shouldn’t be ranked among the Top 10 at his position.
- Pablo Sandoval - He’s the anti-Gonzalez: his batting average is to die for, but until he develops 30-35 home run power, he doesn’t belong in the top 10 first basemen either. At the risk of stating the obvious, his value is far greater as a third baseman than as a first baseman.
- Justin Morneau - He’s not the elite power hitter you might think he is (certainly not when compared to the first basemen ranked ahead of him), and his batting average is too variable to count on. If you subscribe to the “every other year” theory (which I don’t), this should be an “up” year for Morneau, but I’m not buying it.
Undervalued
- Kendry Morales - Given a regular spot in the lineup for the first time in 2009, Morales showed that he’s a legitimate .300 hitter with 30+ home run power. Fellow up-and-comer Joey Votto has comparable projections (except for a few more steals), but Morales is typically available several rounds later in drafts and for less money in auctions than Votto.
- Derrek Lee - A classic case of an overlooked/underappreciated veteran - every season fantasy owners think he’ll fall off the cliff, and one of these years they’ll be right, but it won’t be this season. Spend your early-round draft picks and big auction dollars on players at other positions; Lee is a good bet for .290-.300 and 30 HR in the likely event that he stays healthy.
Second Basemen
Overvalued
- Ian Stewart - Many fantasy analysts are predicting great things for Stewart now that he has an everyday job as the Rockies’ third basemen (with dual eligibility at second base), but he’s too big a batting average risk to be a key component of a championship fantasy team.
- Rickie Weeks - He’s never topped 130 games in a season despite being touted as a potential star for the last five years. He has more speed than Stewart, but less power, and like Stewart, he’s also a big batting average risk.
Undervalued
- Dustin Pedroia - He’s a solid, if not spectacular, contributor in all five of the standard roto hitting categories, but he’s valued considerably lower than Ian Kinsler. That shouldn’t be - he doesn’t have the power or speed of Kinsler, but his higher batting average offsets those shortcomings.
Shortstops
Overvalued
- Stephen Drew - Sure, one of these years Stephen Drew’s fantasy production will catch up to his hype, and one of these years Lucy will finally let Charlie Brown kick that football.
Undervalued
- Derek Jeter - Like Dustin Pedroia, he’s a solid contributor in all five of the standard roto hitting categories, and like Pedroia, fantasy owners don’t seem to value that properly. Let others chase after Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins - Jeter will provide greater fantasy value with a significantly lower bid/later pick. As is the case with Derrek Lee, Jeter’s skills will erode in the coming years, but the drop-off won’t be significant during the 2010 season.
Third Basemen
Overvalued
- Ryan Zimmerman - I’m not sold on either the power spike or the batting average spike from last season. With Nyjer Morgan at the top of the Nats’ lineup he may have more RBI opportunities than he did in 2009, but if Adam Dunn’s batting average reverts to historical levels, opposing pitchers will be fools if they don’t pitch around Zimmerman with runners on base.
Undervalued
- Gordon Beckham - Unless he improves even more than I think he will, he won’t be an elite option at third base. However, he should quickly gain eligibility at second base in most fantasy leagues, and he’ll rank as a Top 5 option at his new position.
Outfielders
Overvalued
- Grady Sizemore - Please wake me up when his batting average catches up to the rest of his game. Until that happens, he’ll be a perrenial fantasy disappointment. Slightly more valuable if your fantasy league uses on-base percentage instead of batting average.
- Justin Upton - I know he’s being touted everywhere as a future MVP, but I need to see him maintain the batting average and power improvement for another season before I’ll place him among the fantasy elite.
- Curtis Granderson - Hope is not a plan. Sure, he’ll most likely be hitting leadoff for a much stronger offense in New York than he was with in Detroit. But that alone won’t bring about the batting average rebound against lefties that would be required to justify his current lofty ranking. A potential move to left field and the Yankees’ recent signings of Randy Winn and Marcus Thames suggest that Granderson may become part of a platoon if his hitting doesn’t improve quickly.
Undervalued
- Carlos Lee - You can question his attitude, his weight, and the accompanying dramatic loss of speed all you want. However, the man can still flat out hit, both for average and for power. Like the unrelated Derrek Lee, he’s a consistent veteran who can be a relatively low-cost pillar of a championship fantasy team.
- Bobby Abreu - See Carlos Lee (sans dramatic loss of speed). Not as high an average or home run total, but more stolen bases and runs scored.
- Torii Hunter - See Carlos Lee (sans questionable attitude and dramatic loss of speed). He’ll play more games than last season, which will help his power, runs scored, and stolen base totals, but it’s likely his batting average will be somewhat lower than last year’s .293. Concerns about his ability to stay healthy are overstated.
Starting Pitchers
Overvalued
- Cliff Lee - Yes, he’s improved tremendously over the last two season, yes, he was outstanding in the 2009 post-sesaon (though Phillie fans probably wish in retrospect that he’d started Game 4 on short rest), and yes, the Phillies seemingly made a dumb trade when they moved him to Seattle. However, he’s not the elite fantasy pitcher you’d think he is based on his draft position/auction price. His K/9 rate, while nothing to sneeze at, is nothing special, nor is his WHIP. The move back to the AL may also lead to a slight increase in his ERA. Notice that I didn’t even mention anything about his recent foot injury.
- Justin Verlander - He was dominating for much of last season, but like Cliff Lee, his WHIP is too high for him to be considered a true fantasy ace. I rarely mention a pitcher’s projected win total, because it’s obviously quite arbitrary, but without Placido Polanco, Curtis Granderson and even Marcus Thames, the Tigers will be one of the weakest hitting teams in baseball this season.
- Jon Lester - He’s talented, and he’s a great feel-good story, even if you’re not a member of Red Sox Nation. However, from a fantasy perspective he’s not even the best starting pitcher on his own team (that would be Josh Beckett). At the risk of beating a dead horse, his WHIP prevents him from being an elite fantasy pitcher. Fantasy owners may be tempted to overlook non-counting categories such as AVG and WHIP, but as long as they’re equally weighted with the other scoring categories used in your league, that would be a mistake.
- Chris Carpenter - Unlike the starting pitchers listed above, Carpenter is a true fantasy ace. When he’s healthy. Which may or may not happen. If you draft/bid for Carpenter expecting him to pitch anything close to 200 innings, you’re playing with fire. If you don’t believe that, check out his stat lines from the 2002, 2007, and 2008 seasons, then get back to me. Statisticians speak of type I errors (false positives) and type II errors (false negatives). A basic rule for fantasy baseball is to avoid taking unneccessary risks. You catch my drift. You have been warned.
- Ubaldo Jimenez - A key component of his success last season was his ability to limit his walks while maintaining his strikeout rate. Can he repeat last year’s success? Given his track record, count me among the doubters.
Undervalued
- Jake Peavy - Sure, he’s now pitching in the American League and in a much more hitter-friendly park than his former home at Petco. Still, he demonstrated that he’s recovered from last year’s elbow injury during several late-season starts for the White Sox. Assuming that he’s able to stay healthy enough to pitch 175+ innings, he’s a borderline Top 10 starting pitcher.
- Javier Vazquez - Too much is being made of his disappointing 2004 season with the Yankees, which culminated with his giving up a disastrous first-pitch grand slam home run to Johnny Damon in Game 7 of the ALCS. Now, three teams and six years later, Vazquez is a much better pitcher. Even if his ERA is a run higher per game than last year’s 2.87, he’ll be just fine as long as he’s able to maintain his K/9 rate and WHIP close to his recent levels.
- Cole Hamels - Will the real Cole Hamels please stand up? Is it the Cy Young contending 2008 version or the mediocre 2009 version? Like several of the pitchers on the Overvalued list, Hamels was done in by a high WHIP last season. Fortunately for Hamels (and his 2010 fantasy owners), that spike wasn’t due to a higher walk rate; it was due to an unusual batting averae against on balls in play. Assuming that normalizes this season, the 2010 version of Cole Hamels will be much closer to the 2008 version than the 2009 version.
- Ryan Dempster - He’s certainly not an elite starting pitcher, owing primarily to his WHIP, but he can function as a third, or even second starter on a fantasy pitching staff at a fraction of the cost of many more highly regarded options. Take note.
- Brandon Webb - Granted, some may think that I’m contradicting my stance on Chris Carpenter when I include Webb on this list. However, by all accounts, Webb appears to have made a complete recovery, although shoulder injuries are notorious for ruining many pitchers’ careers. Still, Webb, unlike Carpenter, does not have a history of arm problems, and he’s also four years younger than Carpenter. If he’s still around in the middle stages of your draft, or you don’t have to blow the bank in your auction to get him, you’ll get a potential ace for the price of a second or third starter.
Relief Pitchers
Overvalued
- Francisco Rodriguez - Even if you overlook the fact that K-Rod pitched for a Mets team that had a horrible season, his own performance was decidely subpar (at least by his standards, if not the Mets’). A drop in his strikeout rate accompanied by an increase in his walk rate make it easy to understand why his ERA was up significantly last season. And don’t even get a Mets’ fan started on the two walk-off grand slams he served up last season. Saves are just as difficult to predict as Wins, but it’s a good bet that K-Rod’s WHIP will continue to be unacceptable (for fantasy owners, if not the Mets).
Undervalued
- Rafael Soriano - As long as Soriano manages to stay healthy for most of the season (which he did last year for the third time in four seasons), he stands to be a Top 10 closer in 2010 for Tampa Bay. The Rays have a potentially explosive offense, a pitching staff with several promising young starters, and a number of capable setup men (who were previously miscast as closers). Put that all together, lean back, and smile while you pay much less for Soriano than someone else in your fantasy league pays for Francisco Cordero or Jose Valverde.
So, there you have some initial thoughts for the 2010 season. Feel free to let me know whether you agree or disagree - I welcome dissent (makes for a much more interesting conversation). If you have any specific topics you’d like me to cover, please shoot me a note, and I’ll be happy to respond. I’ll go over some strategy tips (both for drafts and for auctions) and assorted other topics in upcoming posts.
If you’re interested in a broader range of opinions, check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s SportsMoney blog entries on Forbes.com. I’m one of five people who contributes to Zack’s weekly fantasy baseball column ranking players by position for the upcoming season. The other “panelists” are Zack, Ron Shandler of Baseball HQ, Scott Pianowski of Yahoo, and Nick Rousso of Lindy’s.
Finally, speaking of Lindy’s, if you pick up a copy of their 2010 fantasy baseball issue, you’ll see me listed among the contributing writers - I contributed (and wrote) the rankings for the shortstops and third basemen. If any of you happen to know Royals’ shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, please don’t tell him how to find me.
If your name isn’t Yuniesky Betancourt (or even if it is), I encourage you to read the Sherpa’s blog, become a fan of the Facebook page, follow me on Twitter, and/or link to me on LinkedIn (I’m listed under my alter ego, Scott Swanay). There’s no excuse for not staying in touch.
Until next time,
The Sherpa
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