Just wanted to share some news that has all of us here in Sherpaville excited - we’ve just had our first entry published in what will be a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website! Each week we’ll be highlighting some players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results. We’ll seek to offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.
Teams are starting to make their final roster cuts in order to get down to the 25-man limit, and that can mean only one thing: Opening Day is finally just around the corner after a long, crazy winter in many parts of the country. Forget the groundhog and the spring solstice - for many baseball fans Opening Day marks the true start of spring! As you make your final preparations for your fantasy league’s (or leagues’) draft or auction, be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com. I’m one of several contributors to the blog, along with Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ), Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), and Nick Rousso (Lindy’s).
This week marks the final installment of our preseason player rankings by position. For our last trick we’ve ranked the top options at Designated Hitter. Even those playing in NL-only leagues may find this interesting - you never know when one of these players will wind up with an NL team late in the season as a first baseman (or, more likely, as a pinch hitter off the bench).
It’s been a lot of fun participating and comparing rankings with the other panelists, and maybe we’ve even given you some ideas/food for thought while we’ve been at it. Thanks so much to Zack O’Malley Greenburg for including us on the panel; hopefully we can do it again next season!
Great article by CBS Sports fantasy writer Scott White on why you should wait on closers in your fantasy draft. If the charts in Scott’s article don’t convince you that the opportunity cost associated with taking a closer early is too great, nothing ever will: http://bit.ly/a03KkF
We’re at that point in Spring Training where sportswriters desperate for stories are reduced to writing about heated battles for the 5th spot in lousy teams’ starting rotations. If you’re looking forward to Opening Day and “games that count”, and you need your fantasy baseball fix, check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com. I’m one of several contributors to the blog, along with Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ), Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), and Nick Rousso (Lindy’s).
There will be weekly entries posted on Wednesdays through the end of March to help you prepare for the upcoming season - this week we ranked Starting Pitchers 26-50 - did your favorite(s) make the cut? We’ll cover Designated Hitters (sorry, NL fans!) in next week’s entry, which will be the last in this series of preseason rankings.
Just wanted to let everybody in Sherpaville know that I’ll be appearing on Jay Cruz’ Internet radio program (Pursuit of Happiness) today (Wed 3/17) to talk about fantasy baseball and the upcoming season. I’ll be on with Jay for approximately an hour beginning at 9 am Pacific/noon Eastern.
You can listen live at HealthyLife.net, (click on the “Listen Live” button at the top of the page) or you can listen afterwards by clicking on HealthyLife’s “Archives” button (on the homepage). I will also post the audio files from the show shortly.
Last night the draft for the inaugural Bloomberg Fantasy Baseball Challenge was held on RealTime Sports’ website. This is a 5×5 league which includes 6 fantasy baseball enthusiasts, who were chosen from among ~300 applicants, and 6 industry experts. The league uses the usual 5×5 scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers). Rosters consist of 14 hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util), 9 pitchers, and a 5-player Bench.
Here are the 12 participants for 2010 in the order they drafted (affiliation noted for industry experts):
I used the 2010 projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of last night’s draft:
Projections by Team (in draft order) - Hitting Categories
Owner
AB
AVG
HR
RBI
SB
R
Michaels
7,846
.288
261
1,145
194
1,238
Shandler
7,626
.285
270
1,080
195
1,189
Mitchell
7,399
.278
292
1,092
198
1,114
Reed
7,986
.283
286
1,126
227
1,214
Reynolds
7.665
.276
292
1,126
142
1,150
Heaney
7,618
.284
296
1,167
219
1,211
Levey
7,630
.288
280
1,172
227
1,207
Roher
7,558
.288
265
1,106
194
1,182
Farrell
7,748
.278
312
1,211
139
1,175
VanRiper
7,622
.285
272
1,142
179
1,198
Kii
7,086
.281
273
1,079
201
1,097
Gardner
7,506
.282
257
1,059
188
1,144
Projections by Team (in draft order) - Pitching Categories
Owner
IP
W
SV
ERA
WHIP
K
Michaels
1,369
83
98
3.62
1.20
1,167
Shandler
1,336
83
36
3.98
1.26
1,314
Mitchell
1,312
80
90
3.72
1.27
1,244
Reed
1,221
73
88
3.55
1.21
1,179
Reynolds
1,310
80
81
3.76
1.30
1,067
Heaney
1,409
82
59
3.79
1.26
1,201
Levey
1,485
90
68
3.81
1.23
1,185
Roher
1,400
84
71
3.70
1.23
1,293
Farrell
1,370
85
76
3.60
1.22
1,217
VanRiper
1,469
90
66
4.07
1.30
1,238
Kii
1,312
77
62
3.57
1.25
1,239
Gardner
1,406
89
58
3.75
1.24
1,161
Projected Standings (in order of finish)
Owner
H Pts
P Pts
Total Pts
Levey
49
33
82
Michaels
38
42
80
Reed
42
38
80
Farrell
33
44
77
Roher
31
43
74
Heaney
48
23
71
VanRiper
32
27
59
Mitchell
25
34
59
Shandler
30
25
55
Kii
22
32
54
Gardner
14
27
41
Reynolds
22
19
41
Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”. However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an independent observer rather than a participant. Hopefully, all 12 of the participants came out of the draft feeling good about their team. Hope springs eternal before the actual games begin.
Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:
At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so. This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
There appeared to be a glitch in the draft software. Occasionally, a drafted player seemingly destined for a given team’s bench was placed in the starting lineup over a player with greater fantasy value. Apparently, these decisions were based on alphabetical order or something equally irrelevant (e.g. - just a hunch, but I doubt Tim Heaney would choose to start Kelly Shoppach at Utility and keep Jayson Werth on the bench). I did my best to account for these discrepancies in order to optimize each team’s expected results.
Some participants, especially Reed, Kii, and Mitchell, took more chances than others in drafting talented players who are either injured or likely to start the season in the minors. Of course, in the actual contest, the owners will replace the players in the lineup, which will improve their results in at least the counting stat categories, but I did not attempt to adjust for this factor. Thus, my projected results for these owners may be a bit conservative.
Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades (if the league decides to allow them), free agent pickups, etc.
Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings gives a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of last night’s draft. Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds - good luck to all the participants!
Lots of interesting news this week from Spring Training, especially if you follow the Minnesota Twins (more to come in the next few days on the fantasy impact of Joe Nathan’s injury - my take is a bit different from most others I’ve read so far). If you’re now counting down the days remaining until Opening Day and looking for your fantasy baseball fix, check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com. I’m one of several contributors to the blog, along with Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ), Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), and Nick Rousso (Lindy’s).
There will be weekly entries posted on Wednesdays through the end of March to help you prepare for the upcoming season - this week we ranked the Top 25 Starting Pitchers - did your favorite(s) make the cut? We’ll cover Starting Pitchers 26-50 in next week’s entry.
Although much of what gets reported as “news” during Spring Training is little more than drivel designed to meet space requirements, there are several nuggets re: specific players that are worth mentioning as you prepare for your fantasy draft or auction:
Russell Martin (LAD, C) is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a groin pull - that timetable would keep him out for the first week or two of the season. Brad Ausmus and A.J. Ellis are likely to split catching duties in Martin’s absence. Ausmus is a known quantity to fantasy owners - known for his ability to wreak havoc on your team’s batting average without providing any power. Pass. Ellis may hit for a passable average (.260-.270), but like Ausmus, he must have stepped out of line when the baseball gods handed out power. Unless you’re in a very deep NL-only league and count yourself among the truly desperate, you should pass on him too.
Alex Gordon (KC, 3B) will be out 4-5 weeks with a broken thumb, which means it’s likely he’ll miss the beginning of the season. Josh Field may gain a few early April ABs, but Gordon’s injury doesn’t have much of an effect on either’s fantasy value: you still don’t want either one anywhere near your fantasy team.
Brandon Webb (Ari, SP) is complaining that his surgically repaired shoulder feels “sluggish”. I’d lump him together with Ben Shields and Rich Harden - tremendously talented guys who will be lucky to start more than 25 games in 2010. Based on Webb’s reports on his arm and the possibility his shoulder problems may linger, he should just barely be ranked among the Top 50 starting pitchers heading into your draft. While he’s still likely to be fairly effective when he’s healthy enough to start, don’t make the mistake of assuming he’ll be able to make 33 starts and be effective as he was prior to the shoulder injury.
Over/under for the number of starts super rookie Stephen Strasburg (Was, SP) will make this season: 23. No matter how effective Strasburg is during Spring Training, since the Nationals aren’t expecting to contend for the playofs this season, they’ll almost certainly keep him in the minors until at least early June. This will be done under the guise of “getting the kid some minor league experience before we throw him into the fryer”, but you can rest assured that it will be done in order to delay the start of Strasburg’s arbitration clock by a year.
Unfortunately, the snakebitten Angel Guzman (ChC, RP) has a shoulder injury that sounds serious. He’ll either strengthen the damaged area for 1-2 months before trying to throw again, or he’ll opt for what will probably be season-ending surgery. Many were viewing Guzman as a potential closer for the Cubs if Carlos Marmol hit a rough patch, but that appears highly unlikely now, even if Guzman is able to pitch again in a month or two. If you’ve already drafted and play in a league that has DL spots, he’s certainly worth stashing just in case the news is better than expected. If your league doesn’t have DL spots, feel free to cut Guzman now and look in another direction for a “closer in waiting” (e.g. - Matt Thornton, Jason Motte, Chris Perez).
While it’s great that Spring Training games have started, it’s hard to get too excited about the games themselves. Roy Halladay made his Phillies’ debut today in a rematch of last season’s Fall Classic. For some reason the intensity level just wasn’t the same. If you’re now counting down the days remaining until Opening Day and looking for your fantasy baseball fix, check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com. I’m one of several contributors to the blog, along with Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ), Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), and Nick Rousso (Lindy’s).
There will be weekly entries posted on Wednesdays through the end of March to help you prepare for the upcoming season - this week we ranked the Top 25 Closers (everybody’s favorite fantasy roster spot):