The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Hi everyone!

We’re midway through Week 3, and injuries continue to take their toll on most  fantasy squads.  Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 3 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

Great news - the In-season Updates are finally working!  You can now get both Season-to-Date player stats and rankings and (more importantly) Remainder-of-Season player forecasts and rankings!  These rankings are updated daily for every player in our database!  No more being aggravated by sites that publish updated rankings for just the Top N players in a mixed 5×5 league, then updated them once a week (if you’re lucky) or more likely once a month.  

Our daily updates allow you to generate player rankings that reflect your league’s criteria (scoring categories & roster positions).  Suppose a player on your team is hurt or loses his job, a heralded prospect is called up to the majors for the first time, or you want to evaluate the impact of several trade options proposed by another owner in your league.  How do you go about it?  Do you A) go with your gut  B) rely on the same preseason rankings that you used for your draft/auction, or C) rely on “updated” rankings that don’t reflect the latest developments?

Of course, the best answer is to rely on the Sherpa’s In-season Updates!  Whether your team’s off to a better start than the ‘84 Tigers, you’re wondering whether a player’s hot (or cold) start will continue, or injuries have already decimated your team, I urge you to play with the In-season Updates demo, then put the Sherpa to work for you!

So sign up for the Sherpa’s daily In-season Updates today, and let us guide you to victory!

To those of you who have already signed up and waited for the fixes that needed to be made, please know that I truly appreciate both your business and your patience!  And for those of you who haven’t signed up yet, it’s time to give yourself the biggest possible edge for the remainder of the season!

Have a great weekend! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Thoughts from Week 2

• Good start - Again, as I discussed last week, don’t get too excited by players’ early-season results, good or bad.  If you truly believe that Alberto Callaspo & Jason Varitek will end the season with more home runs than Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Lee, then I’d like to sell you a non-refundable round-trip airline ticket to Iceland that has to be used in the next 48 hours.

• Bad start - Before you hit the “Drop” button and bail on a player this early in the season, ask yourself this:  if this were July or August instead of April, and the player had been performing at their expected level, then suddenly had a 2-3 week “slump”, would you react the same way?  The only difference between July/August and April is the amount of prior data available to smooth out the rough patches.  If you wouldn’t dump the player if his slump occurred in July/August, then you shouldn’t dump him in April either.  Yes, there may be more “talent” available on the waiver wire in April than in July/August, but if you preferred the player in question at the time of your draft/auction, then barring a serious injury or loss of a job, you should still prefer the player currently on your roster.  If any of you drop Carlos Lee to pick up Eugenio Velez, you’ll be able to hear me scream from wherever you happen to be reading this.

• Keeping it real - Just in case you’re curious, here were my preseason projections for Ponce de Leon Jr (aka Livan Hernandez):   10 Games Started, 59 Innings Pitched, 3 Wins, 5.51 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and 28 Strikeouts.  I stand by that, and even though he may start more than 10 games for the Nationals, don’t be at all surprised if his ERA and WHIP approach those projected levels before he’s eventually released.  Feel free to remind me if I’m wrong.

• Should I like Ike? - It appears that within the next few days Mets first baseman Ike Davis will be the first highly-touted prospect to be called up to The Show in 2010.  While I give the Mets credit for belying their “Fred Coupon” reputation, I still don’t think this is a good idea from either the team’s or the player’s perspective.  At least Davis has 10 AAA games under his belt, which is 10 more than fellow Mets rookie Jenrry Mejia had before he made the team this Spring.  However, even though there have been cases where skipping/spending minimal time in AAA has worked (e.g. - Ryan Braun, Evan Longoria, and to a lesser extent, Matt Wieters come to mind), I’m generally not comfortable relying on rookies who’ve spent less than half a season at each level in the minors.  For every Ryan Braun success story there must be at least a dozen cautionary tales like Fernando Martinez’.  Sure, if you play in a keeper or dynasty league, go ahead and pick Davis up if you’ve got space on your roster.  However, if your primary goal is to win this season and you’re in need of a first baseman, better to go with a proven commodity such as Aubrey Huff than to cast your fate to the wind.  My projections for Mr. Ike:  256 AB (remember, Daniel Murphy will be back in early-mid May), .242 AVG, 6 HR, 31 RBI, 25 R, and 0 SB - not quite the stuff of legends, no?

• Closer roulette - After a year of relative calm on the closer front, it appears that things have returned to their normal state in 2010 (meaning that we can expect at least 10-12 teams to change closers at least once during the course of the season).  Kevin Gregg is now in, Chad Qualls may be out, Kerry Wood & Brian Fuentes could be back as soon as this week, while Huston Street, Brad Lidge,  & Mike Gonzalez don’t figure to rejoin our wacky world until sometime after May Day.  Don’t discard Jason Frasor just yet if you already own him, and consider him a good speculative pick-up if he’s sitting in your free agent pool.  Some other names to keep an eye on:  Kevin Jepsen, Kam Mickolio, Jensen Lewis, Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya, Cla Meredith, Daniel Bard, Mark Lowe, Sergio Romo, Peter Moylan, and Tyler Clippard.  Finally, add A’s relievers Michael Wuertz and Joey Devine to your watch list when they come off the DL. 

• The pool on the hill  - If you’re lamenting your pitching staff’s early season performance (or lack thereof), some names that have caught my eye so far are Bud Norris, Tom Gorzelanny, Kevin Correia, Dana Eveland, Colby Lewis, and Luke Hochevar.  If they’re all spoken for, some minor leaguers worth speculating on include Christian Friedrich, Jhoulys Chacin, Martin Perez, and Jeremy Hellickson.

• Well positioned - If you’re in need of some hitters, guys to keep an eye on include Nate Schierholtz, Seth Smith, Eric Hinske, J.R. Towles, Pedro Alvarez, Jeremy Hermida, Alex Gordon, Ty Wigginton, Pat Burrell, Carlos Santana, and Fred Lewis.  In the unlikely event you’re playing in a league with Livan Hernandez’ relatives, see if you can trade them Livan straight up for Carlos Lee.  No need to thank me for this advice. 

Strategy Corner

• Crazy cats - If you play in a league that gives bonus points for no-hitters and you just happened to have Ubaldo Jimenez in your lineup last week, then congratulations.  However, if you’re planning to trade for guys who can help you with no-hitters, perfect games, cycles, etc, don’t waste your time.  Games that register points in these categories are so infrequent and so unpredictable that they’re virtually meaningless for use as fantasy baseball categories - you might as well throw all your league’s managers’ names in a hat, pick one at the end of the season, and randomly award them extra points.  Sure, CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, & Felix Hernandez all have a better chance of throwing a no-hitter than Livan Hernandez or Jason Marquis, but so far, both groups of pitchers have the same total number of no-hitters in their collective careers, which is to say “none”.

• Stars and scrubs forever? - The “Stars & Scrubs” approach has long been a favorite roster-building technique for those playing in auction leagues.  Load up on as many star players as you can afford, the thinking goes, and you’ll have such a big advantage over the competition that you can still win even if you sit on your hands for most of the auction, then swoop in at the end and buy the majority of the players on your roster for a dollar or two.  All you need is one or two of your scrubs to have breakout seasons, and you’ll inevitably be perched atop your league’s standings when the season ends.  While I understand the logic behind this approach (e.g. - the top performers should go for a hefty premium because of their relative year-to-year consistency), I heartily disagree with it, especially in “only” leagues.  The point of auction leagues is to accumulate as much talent in aggregate as you can subject to your league’s constraints (e.g. - starting lineup salary, total team salary, roster requirements, etc.).  Ideally, you’d like every player on your roster to produce at better than their expected level.  However, when you pay a premium on the top players, you’re reducing your team’s chances of acquiring the most talent in aggregate.  The key to success in most leagues is not the number of big names on your roster, but rather the aggregate number of innings pitched and at-bats your team racks up.  In a mixed league it’s still relatively easy to wind up with everyday players at every position, but you’ll probably have at least a few Jack Wilsons and Carlos Silvas on your roster if you go this route.  If you’ve adopted the Stars & Scrubs approach but see your team stuck deep in the standings, check the correlation between the number of at-bats and a team’s place in the standings - you’ll be surprised.  If this describes your team, you may want to consider trading off several of your stars in exchange for 2 or 3 solid, reliable (if unspectacular) performers who face little to no competition for everyday at-bats.

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I list 8-9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Enjoy today’s “Patriots’ Day Games”, and have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 3!  

Each week I’m highlighting 8 or 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone!

With teams finally playing baseball games that count, be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to the blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ), and Paul Bourdett (RotoExperts).

This is the Week 2 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Thoughts from Week 1

• Good start - As happens every season, there are a number of players off to surprisingly good starts (e.g. - Chris Young (OF), Edgar Renteria, Vernon Wells, Alex Gonzalez).  At the risk of stating the obvious, don’t give in to “irrational exuberance” and overpay for players like these if another owner in your league tries to sell high on them.

• Bad start - As is also the case every season, there are a number of players off to lousy starts (e.g. - Giovany Soto, Corey Hart, Carlos Lee, Chris Davis).  At the risk of stating the obvious here too, don’t give in to the temptation to cut them loose after 5-6 games in order to pick up someone who’s off to an unexpectedly good start.  It’s easy to assure yourself that you’ll never succumb to this “logic” when it happens to another owner’s players, but when it happens to your own players, logic often flies out the window (especially if your team as a whole is not off to a good start).

• Slow starters - If you subscribe to the popular Baseball Prospectus (BP) theory that most starting pitchers don’t reach their potential until they’ve had 40-60 big league starts (which usually happens in their 2nd or 3rd MLB season), then Luke Hochevar and Dana Eveland are two hurlers you should keep an eye on (unless you play in an NL-only league, of course).  On the other hand, pitchers such as Gio Gonzalez, Charlie Haeger, and the rest of the Blue Jays’ young pitchers likely need another 1-2 seasons before hitting their stride.  This rule of thumb obviously isn’t foolproof but it’s a reasonable decision criterion if you’re trying to decide among several starting pitchers.

• Second opinions - There’ve been a number of key injuries already, especially among second basemen.  Keystone sackers who’ve already bitten the dust (so to speak) include Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts, Aaron Hill, and potentially Mark Ellis.  Potential replacements you should consider if they’re available include Luis Valbuena, Mike Fontenot, Jose Uribe, and Akinori Iwamura.  According to injury expert Stephania Bell of ESPN, Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero is likely to miss at least 6 weeks with his torn meniscus; his backup Chris Snyder is a better add in head-to-head leagues than in roto leagues because of his low average, but depending on who else is available, you should definitely consider him as a replacement.  Even better, if Pirates first baseman Jeff Clement is available in your league and still eligible at catcher, add him instead.  He’s a great choice because he’s likely to play in more games than Montero (or any other catcher, for that matter), which works to your advantage in leagues where counting stats carry more weight in aggregate than average-based stats (which is the case in most leagues).

• Upon closer inspection - We’ve also seen the requisite amount of closer drama during Week 1.  According to Rangers manager Ron Washington, Frank Francisco’s demotion is just temporary.  However, it’s hard to believe that “Francisco Squared” (or, if you’re the Giants, ”Francicso Squared”) will get his job back any time soon if the heralded Neftali Feliz comes anywhere close to living up to his enormous hype.  Mike Gonzalez has been temporarily removed as Baltimore’s closer, but unlike the Texas situation, I expect this to be just a temporary move since the Orioles don’t have any obvious candidates to replace Gonzalez on a long-term basis.  Cleveland’s Chris Perez has blown several saves since taking over for the disabled Kerry Wood; if Perez implodes before Wood returns, look for either Jensen Lewis or Tony Sipp to step into the ninth-inning role.  Finally, Rockies closer Huston Street’s return date keeps moving in the wrong direction (current estimate:  early May), so Franklin Morales should continue to get Colorado’s save opportunities for at least several more weeks.

Strategy Corner

• FAABulous - I’ve written extensively in the past about how it makes sense to spend your Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) aggressively, which is especially true in a mixed league.  Many people would argue against using this strategy in an “only” league, where star-level players often get traded into the league (and thrown into your free agent pool) in mid-late July towards the July 31st trading deadline.  Save your money, the thinking goes, and you’ll be in better position to bid on this year’s version of Manny Ramirez, CC Sabathia, or Matt Holliday.  However, what if several owners in your league employ the same strategy?  Worse yet, what if none of these big deadline deals take place?  Do you really want to hoard your dollars all season, only to get Jeff Suppan or Chad Gaudin as your “prize” for your patience?  When it comes to your FAAB, you’re far better off if you spend it throughout the season to plug holes and make incremental improvements to your roster.  This is one instance in which the proverb “a bird in hand is worth two in the bush” rings especially true. 

• Trading places - Once we’ve had a chance to see our rosters in action for a few weeks (or sometimes even sooner than that), it often becomes clear to us that our current roster isn’t quite the juggernaut we’d envisioned when we got up from the table on draft/auction night.  Most of us will seek to improve our squads through both the free agent pool and the trade market.  Before proposing a trade to a fellow owner, take a minute to put yourself in the other owner’s shoes and consider your reaction if the same trade were proposed to you.  If you fall off your chair laughing hysterically, exclaim “no way in hell I’d do that!”, or have to spend 5 minutes rationalizing the trade to yourself, chances are good the other owner will have a similar reaction.  Don’t do that.  You could argue “caveat emptor” applies to fantasy baseball trades, but even if you do succeed in snookering another owner into trading Derek Jeter for Alex Gonzalez, not only will the other owner eventually resent you, but so will the rest of the owners in your league (even in a cutthroat league).  You may win the battle, but you’ll lose the proverbial war - not only will the owner left holding the bag resent you and refuse your future trade overtures, but you’re likely to be ostracized by the rest of the owners in your league.  Conversely, throw out a reasonable first offer (even if it’s not your “best and final offer”), and the other owner (as well as the rest of your league’s owners, if they find out) will be more likely to respect you and trade with you in the future, even if they reject that particular offer.  

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I list 8-9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

• Brad Berkowitz, a successful entrepreneur and published author, recently interviewed me for his blog post on Examiner.com.  The interview came out very well, if I do say so myself (note:  modesty is not one of the sherpas’ stronger traits).

• I was a guest this past Saturday on RotoCommunity’s hour-long Blog Talk Radio show - thanks so much to RotoCommunity’s Pat Mayo for having me on as his guest and to RotoCommunity chief Dave Gawron for the invitation!

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Thanks to Pat Mayo of RotoCommunity for having me on as a guest for his Blog Talk Radio show last Saturday (and to RotoCommunity chief Dave Gawron for the invite)! http://bit.ly/bURtNM

We spent the first 45 minutes or so talking about fantasy baseball (both specific players and general strategies), then the next 10 minutes talking about some of the recent NFL transactions and their impact on the upcoming fantasy football season.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 2!  

Each week I’m highlighting 8 or 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone!

With teams finally playing baseball games that count, be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to the blog, along with Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ), Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), and Paul Bourdett (RotoExperts).

This is the Week 1 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone!

Just wanted to let everyone in Sherpaville know that Brad Berkowitz, successful entrepreneur and published author, wrote a great profile of the Sherpa and his business this past weekend for Examiner.com - I encourage you to check it out!

Brad is one of the most interesting people you’ll ever meet.  After graduating with degrees from Penn’s Wharton School and NYU’s Stern School, he had a very successful career in the world of finance, most recently working for a hedge fund for seven years.  However, last summer Brad decided to make a change, left the world of finance, and finished his book The 21st Century Guide to Bachelorhood, a humorous look at dating, sex and relationships from a guy’s point of view.  He’s also started a company called LockYourDocs!, which enables customers to store all their vital documents online to make it easier to recover information in the case of theft, fire, unexpected death, etc.

Take a look at the article, Brad’s book, and his company’s website - in all three cases you’ll be glad you did!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page