The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 9!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

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Hi everyone!

We’re midway through Week 8, and that squirrel on the field in Minnesota isn’t the only one going nuts - so are the fantasy owners who had Coco Crisp, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jimmy Rollins, and Alfredo Simon, among others.

Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 8 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 8!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone!

We’re midway through Week 7, and we’ve already lost Josh Beckett, Andre Ethier, Jorge Posada, and Asdrubal Cabrera to the DL this week,  to name just a few.  Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 7 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

A couple of big fantasy baseball names were placed on the DL this afternoon - one hitter & one pitcher; both fom the American League.

 If you’re looking for an outfielder to replace Grady Sizemore, consider Corey Patterson, Andres Torres, Angel Pagan, and Jeremy Hermida.

 If you’re looking for a starting pitcher to replace Josh Beckett, consider Bronson Arroyo, Wade LeBlanc, Justin Masterson, and Tim Wakefield.

Hope your week is going well! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

Week 6 highlights:  It’s nice to see the Reds and Padres in first place.  Of course, we all know that those two teams will win their divisions again when pigs fly, hell freezes over, and Omar Vizquel DHs.  Oh, wait (is Ozzie trying to get fired?) . . . Meanwhile, we saw two additional violations of the unspoken rule that players should never question a team’s medical staff.  Mark DeRosa started to question some things prior to hitting the DL with his wrist injuy, while Pat Neshek was chastised by Twins manager Ron Gardenhire for venting his frustrations on “the Tweeter”.  Rockies manager Jim Tracy and Phillies manager Charlie Manuel engaged in a war of words over the Phillies alleged sign-stealing using binoculars (how quaint - don’t they have an iPhone app for that yet?)

Thoughts from Week 6

• Hurt locker - Brad Lidge, Mark DeRosa, Travis Snider, Justin Duchscherer, John Baker, Scott Harrison, Matt Diaz, and Doug Davis were among the new arrivals on the DL this week.  Andre Ethier’s broken pinkie will probably have a bigger impact on fantasy leagues than all the previous injuries combined, but he hasn’t been placed on the DL yet (stay tuned, and don’t start him this week if you have other options).  Jonathan Niese isn’t on the DL yet, but given his past hamstring problems, the Mets could well be hamstrung again.  Monday night injuries include Asdrubal Cabrera (sounds like he’s probably headed for the DL) and Hanley Ramirez (sounds like he probably isn’t).  Consider Jose Contreras, Andres Torres, Michael Saunders, Kris Medlen, Ronny Paulino, Brennan Boesch, Eric Hinske, Wade LeBlanc, Austin Kearns, Jake Westbrook, Ramon Santiago, and Cristian Guzman as possible replacements.   

• Welcome, and enjoy The Show! - Super Twos Day has yet to arrive (as Potter Stewart once remarked, “I can’t define it, but I’ll know it when I see it”), but the Nationals called up closer-in-waiting Drew Storen on Monday to help bolster a bullpen that consists of Matt Capps, Tyler Clippard (who’s still tied for the MLB lead in wins!), and a bunch of chicken wire.  Barring trades, injuries, or arms falling off, Storen isn’t likely to close this season, but if you have a bench spot you can afford to speculate with or play in a keeper league, he’s worth a shot.  The Yankees called up 1B/DH Juan Miranda, but even though Nick Johnson will reportedly be out until late July/early August, look for the Yankees to rotate position players through the DH spot (especially Jorge Posada) or trade for a veteran rather than use Miranda regularly.

• Welcome back! - Hank Blalock, Jack Cust, and Corey Patterson have all been called up after proving they had nothing left to prove in the minors and showing they deserved another chance in The Show.  Armando Galarraga and Eugenio Velez don’t fit into that category; nevertheless, they’re also back in the bigs.  Even if you’re not a Rockies fan it was still great to see Jeff Francis pitch well Sunday in his first big league appearance since 2008.  I don’t know whether he can be a consistent winner/fantasy contributor again, but I’m willing to take the risk (even in a deep mixed league) to find out. 

• Thanks for playing; better luck next time - Among those sent down to the minors this week were Max Scherzer, Nolan Reimold, Ryan Raburn, Scott Sizemore (yes, the Tigers were on the rampage), and Kila Ka’aihue.  Expect to see all of them back in the bigs before long.  The Rays finally cut the cord with Pat Burrell, whose days as an everyday player appear to be over.  Even if he catches on somewhere else as a DH, he’s unlikely to play enough (or well enough) to warrant consideration in all but the deepest of AL-only leagues.

• Closer roulette - Most of the closer intrigue this week played out in the NL.  Huston Street has suffered a setback, so it’s likely Manny Corpas will be Colorado’s closer for the foreseeable future.  As mentioned above, Washington has called up Drew Storen, but Matt Capps is in no imminent danger of losing his job.  Also mentioned above, Philadelphia has been forced to put Brad Lidge back on the DL, and even though J.C. Romero got the save Sunday night, it appears that Jose Contreras will receive most of the save opportunities until Lidge retuns.  In Arizona Chad Qualls continues to close arteries as well as games, but unless you’re a huge Aaron Heilman fan, there’s no reason to speculate at this point on anyone else in the D-backs’ abysmal bullpen.  No further clarity on the White Sox’ closer situation - Bobby Jenks is still “the closer”, but Matt Thornton also converted a save opportunity this week.  However, if you own either J.J. Putz or Sergio Santos, don’t cut them loose yet - they’re still in the mix.  Still no definite return date for Mike Gonzalez in Baltimore, and the way Alfredo Simon has been pitching (with the notable exception of his first blown save), it’s not a given that Gonzalez will be reinstalled as the closer immediately upon his return.

• Role play  - Jose Reyes will assume his rightful spot at the top of the Mets batting order.  His fantasy value increases marginally on the basis of gaining an extra 30 at-bats over the remainder of the season (vs. batting third in the order); look for his average, stolen bases, and runs scored to increase as well.  Brendan Ryan will apparently lose his job as the Cardinals everyday shortstop when Felipe Lopez returns from the DL this week.  Don’t get too comfortable though if you’re a Skip Schumaker owner: unless he starts to hit soon, Lopez may cut into his playing time as well.  Yunel Escobar’s return from the DL will reduce Omar Infante’s playing time in Atlanta.  Hank Blalock takes over for Pat Burrell as Tampa Bay’s primary DH (sorry, Willy Aybar owners).  Due to outfield injuries in Atlanta and San Francisco, Eric Hinske and Andres Torres are playing more often than not; NL-only owners, take note. 

Strategy Corner

• Interleague play - This week marks the start of that favorite time of year for baseball “purists” near and far:  interleague games.  The bane of many mixed league and AL-only owners existence (especially those who play in head-to-head leagues), interleague games played in AL parks offer a special bonus for those in NL-only leagues.  Rejoice if you own players on Cincinnati, the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee, Colorado, Florida, San Francisco, and San Diego.  Doublecheck your lineups if you own a DH-type on Boston (David Ortiz), Baltimore (Luke Scott), the New York Yankees (Marcus Thames), Tampa Bay (Hank Blalock), the Los Angeles Angels (Hideki Matsui), Toronto (Adam Lind), and Detroit (Johnny Damon).  It’s possible some of these players may be used in the field, but certainly don’t count on that being the case for all three games next weekend.  You have been warned.

• Memoryless - As I’ve written in the past, a fantasy team owner’s success (or lack thereof) depends just as much, if not more so, on psychology as it does on actual knowledge of baseball players and teams.  Here’s yet another example.  Suppose you are the Sherpa a fantasy team owner who shall remain nameless.  A couple of weeks ago Kila Ka’aihue was called up from the minors, and you saw an opportunity to get more power out of your Corner Infield spot than Brendan Harris could ever possibly hope to provide.  So, you splurged and spent $2 or $3 of your $100 FAAB money to add Ka’aihue to your roster.  You’re feeling pretty good about your team’s newest acquisition; after all, he has a track record of success as a minor league power hitter, and the Royals could definitely use another power hitter in their lineup (please take a seat, Mitch Maier, your sunflower seeds will be here shortly).  Besides, why would any team, even one that has a history of head-scratching moves such as the Royals, call a player up from the minors just to sit on the bench?  Only that’s exactly what happens.  You think to yourself, “How could this be?  This doesn’t make any sense whatsoever?  Who are the real-life idiots that make these decisions?”  A week goes by, and you have the opportunity to bid on Hank Blalock, who’s just been called up to the majors, has a track record of success at the major league level, and is replacing a player who’s actually been released (so long, Pat Burrell).  Should you (a) bid aggressively on Blalock and view him as a replacement for Ka’aihue?  (b) make a half-hearted bid for Blalock, come up short, and then rationalize your mealy-mouthed/chicken-livered bid by telling yourself that Ka’aihue will still get his chance and prove you right? or (c) pass altogether on bidding for Blalock? (after all, why would anyone spend their FAAB money two weeks in a row to fill the same roster spot?  Of course, the correct answer is (a).  Almost all of us would agree with that, at least in theory.  Yet in practice many people would choose (b) or (c) because they would view (a) as an admission that they made a mistake last week.  Get over it.  Even the best fantasy owners make moves that turn out to be mistakes.  What distinguishes the more successful fantasy owners from those who aren’t as successful is the ability to admit mistakes when necessary, move on, and try again. 

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like us to address in future newsletters, send us a note with your suggestion!

• If you’re not already a subscriber, you owe it to yourself to sign up today for the Sherpa’s In-season Updates!  Use this revolutionary tool to make roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  Whenever an MLB team makes a move (e.g. - minor league call-ups, DL, batting order position changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves) playing time for all affected players is updated.  We have 990 players in our database, and our Remainder-of-Season forecasts and rankings are updated for every player, every day!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 7!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 6!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone - the Week 4 wrap-up is a few days late; hopefully, at the very least, you’ll still get something out of this week’s strategy discussion.

What a wacky period Week 4 was:  Ryan Madson losing a split decision to a clubhouse chair after blowing a save; Chris Perez fuming at Howie Kendrick after a suicide squeeze that worked; and Eric Byrnes nearly running over his GM on a bicycle and losing his job after a suicide squeeze that didn’t work. 

Thoughts from Week 4

• Injuries - A long list again this week, but the key ones were those to Joe Mauer, Nelson Cruz, and Curtis Granderson.  While it’s tempting to look at Wilson Ramos (Mauer’s fill-in and a highly-touted prospect) as a potential replacement, you’re better off going with the likes of John Baker, Ronny Paulino, or Jason Kendall, while hoping that Buster Posey, Tyler Flowers, and/or Jesus Montero get called up soon.  For Cruz and Granderson consider Marlon Byrd, Brett Gardner, David Murphy, and Aaron Rowand as possible replacements. 

• Closer roulette - This week’s 9th inning intrigue was centered in Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Colorado.  Jim Johnson is out in Baltimore (and back in the minors), Alfredo Simon has the job for now, but Mike Gonzalez, and possibly even Koji Uehara are waiting in the wings.  In Philly Ryan Madson is out (and on the DL - see above), Brad Lidge is back, and Jose Contreras may soon get a shot if Lidge falters.  In Colorado Huston Street is at least a couple of weeks away from returning, and Franklin Morales may soon be replaced by Manny Corpas.  Pay no attention when a blast from the past such as Bruce Chen or Nelson Figueroa garners the random save.

• Should they stay or should they go?  - Luke Hochevar?  Go.  Colby Lewis?  Stay.  Dana Eveland?  Go.  Ben Sheets?  Go.  Jake Peavy?  Stay.  Carlos Silva?  Go.  Livan Hernandez?  Go.  Carlos Lee?  Stay.  Jeff Clement?  Go.

• Sell high candidates  - Robinson Cano, Vernon Wells, Paul Konerko, Andre Ethier, Marlon Byrd, Kelly Johnson, Doug Fister, Ricky Romero, Colby Lewis, Barry Zito, Livan Hernandez, Brad Penny.

• Buy low candidates  - Mike Napoli, Matt LaPorta, A.J. Pierzynski, Brendan Ryan, Carlos Lee, Nate McLouth, Javier Vazquez, Jake Peavy, Josh Beckett, Jair Jurrjens, Trevor Hoffman, Adam Harang.

Strategy Corner

• Head-to-head leagues - Two thoughts:  (1) Since there’s no carryover impact from a player having a bad week, you should be willing to take more chances with a head-to-head lineup than you would with a roto lineup.  In a roto league you would almost never consider starting Russell Branyan over someone like James Loney because of the irreparable damage Branyan would do to your team’s batting average over the course of a season.  However, in a head-to-head league, besides supplying more power most weeks than Loney, there are also a handful of weeks in which Branyan would actually provide a higher batting average than Loney too.  (2) If you have a fairly large lead in an average-based category late in the week, there’s nothing wrong with benching your players to increase the chances you’ll preserve your lead.  This is particularly true on the pitching side, where multiple average-based categories are usually used, and if your head-to-head league uses a “winner takes all” format for the weekly matchups. 

• Incremental improvement - Keeping up with the day-to-day player developments can seem like an onerous chore for fantasy owners.  However, keep in mind that the most successful owners are the ones that always take advantage of opportunities to improve their team throughout the season, no matter how slight the improvement might seem.  It’s easy to think that the owners who win championships are the ones that have a successful draft/auction and get lucky with a few key in-season speculative pick-ups.  Usually, that’s only partially true - successful owners are the ones who upgrade from Tommy Manzella to Ronny Cedeno or from Garrett Atkins to Ty Wigginton.  Taken individually, these changes will have only a marginal impact on your team, but if you take this approach consistently throughout the season (whether through trades or free agent acquisitions), you’ll increase your chances of success dramatically.

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone!

We’re midway through Week 5, and injuries continue to wreak havoc on most fantasy squads.  Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 5 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page