Thoughts on Week 4 and Strategy Tips (Thu 5/6/10)
Hi everyone - the Week 4 wrap-up is a few days late; hopefully, at the very least, you’ll still get something out of this week’s strategy discussion.
What a wacky period Week 4 was: Ryan Madson losing a split decision to a clubhouse chair after blowing a save; Chris Perez fuming at Howie Kendrick after a suicide squeeze that worked; and Eric Byrnes nearly running over his GM on a bicycle and losing his job after a suicide squeeze that didn’t work.
Thoughts from Week 4
- Injuries - A long list again this week, but the key ones were those to Joe Mauer, Nelson Cruz, and Curtis Granderson. While it’s tempting to look at Wilson Ramos (Mauer’s fill-in and a highly-touted prospect) as a potential replacement, you’re better off going with the likes of John Baker, Ronny Paulino, or Jason Kendall, while hoping that Buster Posey, Tyler Flowers, and/or Jesus Montero get called up soon. For Cruz and Granderson consider Marlon Byrd, Brett Gardner, David Murphy, and Aaron Rowand as possible replacements.
- Closer roulette - This week’s 9th inning intrigue was centered in Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Colorado. Jim Johnson is out in Baltimore (and back in the minors), Alfredo Simon has the job for now, but Mike Gonzalez, and possibly even Koji Uehara are waiting in the wings. In Philly Ryan Madson is out (and on the DL - see above), Brad Lidge is back, and Jose Contreras may soon get a shot if Lidge falters. In Colorado Huston Street is at least a couple of weeks away from returning, and Franklin Morales may soon be replaced by Manny Corpas. Pay no attention when a blast from the past such as Bruce Chen or Nelson Figueroa garners the random save.
- Should they stay or should they go? - Luke Hochevar? Go. Colby Lewis? Stay. Dana Eveland? Go. Ben Sheets? Go. Jake Peavy? Stay. Carlos Silva? Go. Livan Hernandez? Go. Carlos Lee? Stay. Jeff Clement? Go.
- Sell high candidates - Robinson Cano, Vernon Wells, Paul Konerko, Andre Ethier, Marlon Byrd, Kelly Johnson, Doug Fister, Ricky Romero, Colby Lewis, Barry Zito, Livan Hernandez, Brad Penny.
- Buy low candidates - Mike Napoli, Matt LaPorta, A.J. Pierzynski, Brendan Ryan, Carlos Lee, Nate McLouth, Javier Vazquez, Jake Peavy, Josh Beckett, Jair Jurrjens, Trevor Hoffman, Adam Harang.
Strategy Corner
- Head-to-head leagues - Two thoughts: (1) Since there’s no carryover impact from a player having a bad week, you should be willing to take more chances with a head-to-head lineup than you would with a roto lineup. In a roto league you would almost never consider starting Russell Branyan over someone like James Loney because of the irreparable damage Branyan would do to your team’s batting average over the course of a season. However, in a head-to-head league, besides supplying more power most weeks than Loney, there are also a handful of weeks in which Branyan would actually provide a higher batting average than Loney too. (2) If you have a fairly large lead in an average-based category late in the week, there’s nothing wrong with benching your players to increase the chances you’ll preserve your lead. This is particularly true on the pitching side, where multiple average-based categories are usually used, and if your head-to-head league uses a “winner takes all” format for the weekly matchups.
- Incremental improvement - Keeping up with the day-to-day player developments can seem like an onerous chore for fantasy owners. However, keep in mind that the most successful owners are the ones that always take advantage of opportunities to improve their team throughout the season, no matter how slight the improvement might seem. It’s easy to think that the owners who win championships are the ones that have a successful draft/auction and get lucky with a few key in-season speculative pick-ups. Usually, that’s only partially true - successful owners are the ones who upgrade from Tommy Manzella to Ronny Cedeno or from Garrett Atkins to Ty Wigginton. Taken individually, these changes will have only a marginal impact on your team, but if you take this approach consistently throughout the season (whether through trades or free agent acquisitions), you’ll increase your chances of success dramatically.
Wrapping Up
- I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog. Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.
- I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg. Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team. This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.
Have a great week!
The Sherpa
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