Thoughts on Week 14 & Strategy Tips (Tue 7/13/10)
Hi everyone,
Highlights from Week 14: We’ve finally hit the All-Star break. Michael Young may or may not be at the game. Omar Infante definitely will be there. In spite of the usual debates about who belongs and who doesn’t belong at this year’s All-Star Game, it’s actually next year’s All-Star Game that’s garnering more attention in the press. Once the festivities in Anaheim are over, attention will turn to the upcoming July 31st trading deadline. However, for the second year in a row, Cliff Lee, arguably the best southpaw in the game today, has been traded from an also-ran to a contenter in July. Back on the diamond itself Roy Halladay and Travis Wood matched zeroes in an epic pitching matchup Saturday night; it was the first time in eight seasons that both starting pitchers had held the opposing team scoreless through nine innings.
Thoughts from Week 14
- Hurt locker - Recent new arrivals on the DL include Jake Peavy (out for the season), Jason Heyward, Luke Scott, Ramon Hernandez, Shin-Soo Choo, Todd Helton, Yovani Gallardo, Ryan Ludwick, Will Venable, and David Freese, just to name a few. Consider Bruce Chen, Aaron Cunningham, Lyle Overbay, Ryan Hanigan, Gerardo Parra, Ike Davis, R.J. Dickey, Skip Schumaker, John Jay, and Adam Rosales as potential replacements.
- Welcome back! - Daniel Hudson, who was with the White Sox briefly last summer, and Chris Davis were the biggest names summoned back to the bigs last week. Hudson replaces the aforementioned Jake Peavy, while Davis gets yet another shot in Texas as he replaces Justin Smoak, who was shipped off to Seattle as part of the bounty in exchange for Cliff Lee. Other familiar names back in the majors include Chris Tillman, Ryan Shealy, and Brad Eldred.
- Thanks for playing; better luck next time - Among those sent down to the minors recently were Armando “Mr. Imperfect” Galarraga, Josh Bell, and Jason Jaramillo. Expect to see Galarraga and Bell back before long. The Orioles cut ties with Garrett Atkins, the D-backs sent Dontrelle Willis to the showers, and the Rays waved good-bye to Hank Blalock
- Closer roulette - Huston Street has returned to the closer role in Colorado, displacing Manny Corpas. Bobby Jenks has finally settled down for the White Sox, who not coincidentally are back in first at the All-Star break. Alas, in Arizona no one appears fit for the job, at least not Aaron Heilman, Chad Qualls, and Juan Gutierrez. Avoid all three unless you’re securely in first or last in both ERA and WHIP.
- Role play - Skip Schumaker and Brendan Ryan are both seeing more playing time in the wake of injuries to Ryan Ludwick and David Freese. Aaron Cunningham is doing an admirable job while filling in for Will Venable. Joba Chamberlain is back to giving Yankee manager Joe Girardi fits in the set-up role. Bill Hall, Darnell McDonald, and Eric Patterson are all seeing playing time in the absence of Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jeremy Hermida, but none should be on your roster in all but the deepest of AL-only leagues. Nick Hundley and Yorvit Torrealba are back in what appears to be a jobshare in San Diego. Jayson Nix and Jason Donald are both legitimate Middle Infielder options, even in some mixed leagues. Angel Pagan should see significant playing time in right field once Carlos Beltran retuns from the DL this week, so look for alternatives if you’re in an NL-only league and have Jeff Francoeur in your starting lineup.
Strategy Corner
- Trade deadline - Not only does this time of year bring the trading deadline for MLB GMs, but fantasy GMs are likely looking at a trade deadline somewhere between mid-July and mid-August. The All-Star break is a great time to take stock of your roster, assess your strengths and weaknesses by roster spot and statistical categories, and make some adjustments. Look for teams whose strengths match up well with your weaknesses and vice versa. Don’t send me an offer for Dan Haren if I’m near the bottom of the standings in the pitching category (unless it’s a keeper league, of course). If you do, you’ll be less popular in Sherpaville than LeBron James is in Cleveland these days.
- Roster management - If you’re in a league that has both games played and innings pitched maximums (I couldn’t bring myself to type “maxima”), keep track of the pace you’re on with regard to both. Ideally, you’ll be on pace to exceed both slightly throughout the season, but not significantly. Why? Because with most league settings that utilize maximums it’s virtually impossible to be on track to simultaneously exceed both games played and innings pitched by a wide margin. Usually, if you’re way ahead of pace in one, you’ll be well behind pace in the other. Your goal is to use all of your games played and innings pitched by the end of the season. It does you no good to be 200 innings pitched ahead of pace while you’re 10+ games behind pace at every hitting position: you won’t have enough Mondays and Thursdays left in the season to make up ground in the games played department. Conversely, it is possible to “finish early” on the games played side and make up ground on innings pitched by streaming starting pitchers, but doing so will usually do irreparable harm to your WHIP and ERA (and any other ratio-based pitching categories).
Wrapping Up
- I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog. Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.
- I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg. Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team. This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.
- If you have any topics you’d like us to address in future newsletters, send us a note with your suggestion!
- If you’re not already a subscriber, you owe it to yourself to sign up today for the Sherpa’s In-season Updates! Use this revolutionary tool to make roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals. The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use! Whenever an MLB team makes a move (e.g. - minor league call-ups, DL, batting order position changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves) playing time for all affected players is updated. We have 990 players in our database, and our Remainder-of-Season forecasts and rankings are updated for every player, every day! Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!
Have a great week!
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