Archive for the ‘experts' league’ Category

Thoughts on 2011 Tout Wars Mixed League Auction (Tue 3/22/11)

Tuesday, March 22nd, 2011

I had the privilege of participating in my first Tout Wars auction this past weekend as one of the 15 participants in the mixed league.  Sitting in that room felt a bit like being invited to sit at the big kids’ table for the first time, and the excitement I felt was comparable to how I feel as the Christmas season approaches.

It’s a tradition of sorts for Tout Wars’ participants to post a blog entry in the days following their auction in which they share their thoughts about their team.  Since it’s my first year in the league, I’m going to start my own tradition and refrain from doing that.  Such a recap would be as painful for me to write as it would be for anyone else to read.  If you’re interested in seeing the gory details of the 15 rosters, they’re available in this Google doc.  If you’re suffering from Tout recap withdrawal and want to read others’ thoughts, they’re available via the Tout Wars’ website.

Instead, I’ll offer a few general thoughts on the proceedings.  First off, as you would expect in a league like Tout, everyone in the room is extremely well-prepared.  You’re not going to sneak any players past people (unless you’re defending champion Andy Behrens, who purchased Scott Baker, Anibal Sanchez, Marlon Byrd, Michael Brantley, and Jim Thome for $1 apiece).  To add to the challenge your player projections are highly unlikely to be significantly more accurate than those of anyone else in the room.

So, given that, how can you still make yourself stand out from the rest of the field in a Tout Wars auction (he asks rhetorically)?  There are actually a number of reasons why your roster and results may vary greatly from those of your competitors:

  1. Roster composition - do you focus on players’ overall fantasy value?  Do you buy stats with little or no attention paid to the name that’s attached to them?   Do you take a “stars and scrubs” approach (which generally works better in a mixed league than in “only” leagues), or do you try to diversify your risk by spreading money more evenly across the best available second and third-tier players at each position?  Does position scarcity factor into your overall player rankings and associated fantasy values?
  2. Auction budget - do you follow the more-or-less standard split of $180 for hitters/$80 for pitchers, or do you plan to deviate from these norms?  Do you use your league’s history as a guideline for prices, or do you rely solely on your own judgement?  Do you include slots for $1 players in your budget, or do you save a bit of money earlier in the auction so that you have $2 per roster spot to spend at the end and can trump the $1 bids?
  3. Philosophy re: spending money - do you want to spend your money earlier in the auction on the marquee players, or do you want to exercise restraint so that you have more of a say in determining which players you purchase for your roster later in the auction?  If your well-thought-out plan goes awry due to unforeseen circumstances, are you flexible enough to move to Plan B (or Plan H) on the fly, or do you stick with your original plan despite the bumps in the road?
  4. Auction style - how predictable are you during the auction?  Do you follow a consistent pattern in your bidding (e.g. - always raising the current high bid by $1), or do you vary your bidding style from player-to-player or stage-to-stage during the auction?
  5. Nomination philosophy - do you nominate only the players you want, only the players you don’t want, or a mixture of the two?  If you sense that one of your opponents is running low on funds and needs to buy a player at a specific position, do you nominate someone at that position in hopes they’ll overspend?  If the previous nomination generated a bidding war over a specific player, do you follow by nominating a player at the same position as a consolation prize for the person who ended up with the short end of the stick in the bidding for the previous player?
  6. Monitoring player news - almost everyone in the room has a laptop - do you check the player news and transactions during the auction hoping to gain an edge on your opponents (or at least stay even with those who also have laptops), or do you view that as an unnecessary distraction?

So, as you can see, even in a league as competitive as the Tout Wars leagues, there are plenty of ways you can still distinguish yourself (for better or for worse) from the competition.  Don’t kid yourself - many of the participants are friends, but while the auction is on, we all want to put together the best fantasy squad possible.  One competitor, J.P. Kastner, summed it up beautifully: “I wish everyone else in the room could finish tied for second!”It’s said that you can’t win a fantasy baseball league during your auction, but you can certainly lose it make things more challenging for yourself once the actual season begins if you have a less-than-stellar auction.  Of course, there’s some good fortune involved - I doubt any of our rosters could withstand the loss of a star player or two for the season and still have a good shot at capturing the championship.Now comes the fun part.  Owners will spend time assessing the strengths and weaknesses of each roster, including their own.  Once you determine your roster’s weaknesses you have several choices:

  • Stand pat and hope you were overly pessimistic in assessing your roster (not likely).
  • Propose trades to other owners whose strengths match up nicely with your weaknesses, and vice versa (difficult to do in this league - no one wants to get “taken” publicly).
  • Work the free agent pool with the $100 Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) we’re each given.  In a league like this it’s better to shoot first and ask questions later (e.g. - Jose Bautista in 2010).  I’m guessing that once they participate in Tout Wars most owners also start paying more attention to minor league players than they did previously.

I’ve promised myself that I’m going to enjoy my first year in Tout Wars.  Like everyone else, I’d love to win, but I also realize that it’s quite an honor just to be invited to sit with the big kids.  Among the roughly 10 million fantasy baseball players in the US, I’m sure many would happily trade places with me in order to have the opportunity to match wits with the best-know experts in the fantasy baseball industry.I’m sure I’ll make some mistakes along the way, but most importantly, hopefully 2011 is the year that I finally learn to spell Ryan Madsen’s Madson’s name correctly.The SherpaFantasy Baseball SherpaThe Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s BlogThe Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s fanpage on Facebook@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Sirius XM/FSTA fantasy baseball experts’ league (Mon 1/10/11)

Monday, January 10th, 2011

Hi everyone,

Happy New Year!  Hard to believe it’s only another 5 weeks or so until pitchers and catchers report.  When Carl Pavano is the biggest name among the remaining free agent starting pitchers, you know you’re getting close to the start of Spring Training.

I’m happy to announce that I’ve been chosen to participate in the Sirius XM/FSTA (Fantasy Sports Trade Association) fantasy baseball experts’ league for the 2011 season.  The draft for this 13-team league will take place on Mon 1/24 in Las Vegas starting at 8pm EST, and it will be broadcast live on Sirius XM’s fantasy sports channel.  We’ll be drawing for drafting positions sometime this week.

Hope your 2011 is off to a great start!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s fanpage on Facebook

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Sherpa alert - Roto Arcade Pro-Am Q&A (Tue 4/6/10)

Tuesday, April 6th, 2010

Hi everyone,

I recently participated in Yahoo fantasy sports writer Andy Behrens’ 2nd annual Roto-Arcade Pro-Am league’s auction.  Andy followed up with several questions for each of us, enabling us to discuss strategies and defend questionable picks.  Here’s a link to the Q&A

I know that for most fantasy sports participants there’s nothing potentially more sleep-inducing than reading about other peoples’ fantasy teams.  However, I’m sharing this not so much because you’re likely to care about this particular league or its outcome, but several of the participants get into some interesting strategy discussions during their Q&A section.  Undoubtedly saving the best for last, the Sherpa’s Q&A appears at the end of the entry (right before the reader comments).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Predictions for 2010 Bloomberg Challenge (Tue 3/16/10)

Tuesday, March 16th, 2010

Hi everyone,

Last night the draft for the inaugural Bloomberg Fantasy Baseball Challenge was held on RealTime Sports’ website.  This is a 5×5 league which includes 6 fantasy baseball enthusiasts, who were chosen from among ~300 applicants, and 6 industry experts.  The league uses the usual 5×5 scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers).  Rosters consist of 14 hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util), 9 pitchers, and a 5-player Bench. 

Here are the 12 participants for 2010 in the order they drafted (affiliation noted for industry experts):

  1. Lawr Michaels - Mastersball.com
  2. Ron Shandler - BaseballHQ.com
  3. Martha Mitchell
  4. Rob Reed
  5. Harold Reynolds - MLB Network
  6. Tim Heaney - KFFL.com
  7. Jonathan Levey
  8. David Roher
  9. Paul Farrell
  10. Derek VanRiper - Rotowire.com
  11. Satoshi Kii
  12. Steve Gardner - USA Today

Here’s a link to the RealTime Fantasy Sports website’s league page that details each team’s roster.

I used the 2010 projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of last night’s draft:

Projections by Team (in draft order) - Hitting Categories


Owner

AB

AVG

HR

RBI

SB

R

Michaels

7,846

.288

261

1,145

194

1,238

Shandler

7,626

.285

270

1,080

195

1,189

Mitchell

7,399

.278

292

1,092

198

1,114

Reed

7,986

.283

286

1,126

227

1,214

Reynolds

7.665

.276

292

1,126

142

1,150

Heaney

7,618

.284

296

1,167

219

1,211

Levey

7,630

.288

280

1,172

227

1,207

Roher

7,558

.288

265

1,106

194

1,182

Farrell

7,748

.278

312

1,211

139

1,175

VanRiper

7,622

.285

272

1,142

179

1,198

Kii

7,086

.281

273

1,079

201

1,097

Gardner

7,506

.282

257

1,059

188

1,144

  
Projections by Team (in draft order) - Pitching Categories


Owner

IP

W

SV

ERA

WHIP

K

Michaels

1,369

83

98

3.62

1.20

1,167

Shandler

1,336

83

36

3.98

1.26

1,314

Mitchell

1,312

80

90

3.72

1.27

1,244

Reed

1,221

73

88

3.55

1.21

1,179

Reynolds

1,310

80

81

3.76

1.30

1,067

Heaney

1,409

82

59

3.79

1.26

1,201

Levey

1,485

90

68

3.81

1.23

1,185

Roher

1,400

84

71

3.70

1.23

1,293

Farrell

1,370

85

76

3.60

1.22

1,217

VanRiper

1,469

90

66

4.07

1.30

1,238

Kii

1,312

77

62

3.57

1.25

1,239

Gardner

1,406

89

58

3.75

1.24

1,161

 

 

Projected Standings (in order of finish)


Owner

H Pts

P Pts

Total Pts

Levey

49

33

82

Michaels

38

42

80

Reed

42

38

80

Farrell

33

44

77

Roher

31

43

74

Heaney

48

23

71

VanRiper

32

27

59

Mitchell

25

34

59

Shandler

30

25

55

Kii

22

32

54

Gardner

14

27

41

Reynolds

22

19

41

 

 

Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”.  However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an independent observer rather than a participant.  Hopefully, all 12 of the participants came out of the draft feeling good about their team.  Hope springs eternal before the actual games begin.

 

Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:

 

  • At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so.  This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
  • There appeared to be a glitch in the draft software.  Occasionally, a drafted player seemingly destined for a given team’s bench was placed in the starting lineup over a player with greater fantasy value.  Apparently, these decisions were based on alphabetical order or something equally irrelevant (e.g. - just a hunch, but I doubt Tim Heaney would choose to start Kelly Shoppach at Utility and keep Jayson Werth on the bench).  I did my best to account for these discrepancies in order to optimize each team’s expected results.
  • Some participants, especially Reed, Kii, and Mitchell, took more chances than others in drafting talented players who are either injured or likely to start the season in the minors.  Of course, in the actual contest, the owners will replace the players in the lineup, which will improve their results in at least the counting stat categories, but I did not attempt to adjust for this factor.  Thus, my projected results for these owners may be a bit conservative.
  • Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades (if the league decides to allow them), free agent pickups, etc.

Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings gives a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of last night’s draft.  Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds - good luck to all the participants!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Sherpa alert - WCOFB rules industry experts’ mock draft (Wed 2/24/10)

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

Hi everyone,

Yesterday I took part in an industry experts’ mock draft using the World Championship of Fantasy Baseball format.  For those unfamiliar with this format, it’s a 14-team 5×5 mixed league that requires a 24-man active roster (14 hitters; 10 pitchers) and an 8-man bench.  As you can imagine, even though it was a mixed league, by the time we got down to the last few rounds, we were really scraping the bottom of the barrel.  I had the 7th pick in a snake draft - I purposely chose that position to see what would happen if I were shut out from the players who typically go in the first few picks (i.e. - Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, A-Rod, Utley, Braun).

Here’s a link:  http://bit.ly/afYKzM

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page 

Sherpa participates in NL-only experts’ auction on CBS Sports (Wed 2/10/10)

Wednesday, February 10th, 2010

Hi everyone,

Yesterday I participated in an 5×5 NL-only experts’ auction hosted by Eric Mack of CBS Sports.  Here’s a list of the participants in the order in which we nominated players:

1. Scott White, CBSSports.com
2. Eric Mack, CBSSports.com
3. Al Melchior, CBSSports.com
4. Mike Gianella, Patton & Co
5. Scott Swanay, Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
6. Erik Siegrist, RotoWire.com
7. Marc Normandin, Baseball Prospectus
8. David Gonos, OpenSports.com
9. Ben Ice, RotoExperts.com
10. Mike Kuchera, TheFantasyMan.com
11. Charlie Wiegert, Fanball.com
12. Derek VanRiper, RotoWire.com

Here’s a link to the results of the auction (7-round reserve draft is currently underway):  http://bit.ly/9Iv0i4

Charlie Wiegert is the defending champion in this league - he and Eric Mack both deserve kudos for finishing in the Top 3 each of the past two years (note:  I finished fifth last season in my first year in the league - hoping to improve on that result this season!)

I won’t risk boring you by providing an in-depth analysis of each expert’s purchases or projecting a first-place finish for my team - you can see the details for yourself if you’re interested.  Instead, here are a couple of general observations from our auction:

It’s interesting to see the wide variety of auction strategies the experts used.  Most were willing to spend at $40 or more on at least one player; Charlie Wiegert, Mike Gianella, and I were the only ones who didn’t spend at least $30 on a single player.  Predictably, we were among the last owners to enter the fray, but also among the first owners to finish.

Most experts more or less adhered to the rule of thumb about spending roughly $180 on hitters and $80 on pitchers.  The notable exception was Eric Mack, who assembled the strongest pitching staff, but spent almost $120 to do so.  It will be interesting to see whether this strategy pays off.

 Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Predictions for 2009 Tout Wars: Mixed League (Mon 3/30/09)

Monday, March 30th, 2009

Hi everyone,

Saturday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars Mixed League auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan.  This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers).  Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers.  Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster.  The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.

Here are the 17 participants for 2009:

  1. Andy Behrens - Yahoo.com
  2. Will Carroll - BaseballProspectus.com
  3. Alex Cushing - mlb.com
  4. Doug Dennis -BaseballHQ.com
  5. David Gonos - OpenSports.com
  6. John Hoyos - rotojunkie.com
  7. Eric Karabell - ESPN.com
  8. J.P. Kastner - CREATiVESPORTS.com
  9. Chris Liss - Rotowire.com
  10. Eric Mack - CBSSPORTS.com
  11. Alex Patton - pattonandco.com
  12. Paul Petera - BaseballHQ.com
  13. Jason Pliml - MockDraftCentral.com
  14. Brendan Roberts - ESPN.com
  15. Michael Salfino - SNY.tv
  16. Larry Schechter - SandlotShrink.com
  17. Perry Van Hook - FantasyBaseball.com

Here’s a link to the spreadsheet posted on the Tout Wars’ website that details each team’s roster.

I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Saturday’s auction.

Projections by Team - Hitting Categories

Owner

AB

AVG

HR

RBI

SB

R

Behrens

6,720

.280

244

1,042

126

1,063

Carroll

5,129

.286

180

785

70

776

Cushing

6,290

.281

214

895

165

971

Dennis

7,293

.280

277

1,104

150

1,118

Gonos

6,526

.276

259

1,027

97

1,069

Hoyos

6,983

.280

205

975

223

1,046

Karabell

7,492

.272

294

1,127

161

1,177

Kastner

7,324

.279

227

999

165

1,111

Liss

6,053

.279

231

887

123

917

Mack

7,009

.273

281

1,062

123

1,073

Patton

6,393

.278

244

924

206

1,024

Petera

6,668

.273

262

961

144

978

Pliml

6,908

.292

210

945

204

1,054

Roberts

6,691

.277

248

1,007

90

986

Salfino

6,905

.274

276

1,049

139

1,076

Schechter

7,404

.283

245

1,058

172

1,144

Van Hook

7,400

.284

256

1,067

171

1,059

 

 

Projections by Team - Pitching Categories


Owner

IP

W

SV

ERA

WHIP

K

Behrens

1,211

69

66

4.11

1.22

1,132

Carroll

1,376

86

41

3.94

1.22

1,207

Cushing

1,261

75

32

4.50

1.35

1,099

Dennis

934

56

20

5.12

1.27

820

Gonos

1,251

80

64

3.91

1.24

1,170

Hoyos

1,185

69

53

4.25

1.28

1,009

Karabell

1,333

75

58

4.40

1.28

1,158

Kastner

1,452

87

54

4.22

1.27

1,219

Liss

1,228

74

95

4.03

1.23

1,096

Mack

1,375

84

72

4.27

1.28

1,274

Patton

720

39

84

4.26

1.24

560

Petera

1,191

74

53

3.96

1.28

1,019

Pliml

1,032

57

27

4.27

1.28

891

Roberts

1,313

77

40

3.93

1.24

1,193

Salfino

1,270

75

43

4.22

1.35

1,034

Schechter

1,335

81

81

4.16

1.29

1,063

Van Hook

1,032

57

45

3.95

1.24

809

 

 

Projected Standings


Owner

H Pts

P Pts

Total Pts

Schechter

66

52

118

Van Hook

63

54.5

117.5

Behrens

46.5

52.5

99

Gonos

41

58

99

Karabell

62

34

96

Kastner

46.5

47

93.5

Dennis

65

28

93

Patton

40.5

52

92.5

Mack

49.5

39

88.5

Salfino

50

38

88

Hoyos

44

41

85

Liss

23.5

60.5

84

Petera

44

41

85

Roberts

32

49

81

Pliml

48

30.5

78.5

Carroll

20

56

76

Cushing

34.5

24

58.5

 

 

Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”.  However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant.  I’m sure if you asked them,  many, if not all, of the 17 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team.  Such is the nature of the beast.

 

Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:

  • At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so.  This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
  • I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction.  Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup.  I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
  • Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.

Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings give a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction.  Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Predictions for 2009 Tout Wars: NL-only (Mon 3/30/09)

Monday, March 30th, 2009

Hi everyone,

Yesterday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars NL-only auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan.  This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers).  Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers.  Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster.  The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.

Here are the 13 participants for 2009:

  1. Tristan Cockcroft - ESPN.com
  2. Phil Hertz - baseballHQ.com
  3. Peter Kreutzer - askrotoman.com
  4. Rob Leibowitz - Fanball.com
  5. Michael Lombardo - WiseGuyBaseball.com
  6. Lenny Melnick & Paul Greco - FantasyPros911.com
  7. Scott Pianowski - Yahoo.com
  8. Nate Ravitz - ESPN.com
  9. Cory Schwartz - mlb.com
  10. Brian Walton - CREATiVESPORTS.com
  11. Scott Wilderman - The Owners Edge
  12. Rick Wilton - Baseball-Injury-Report.com
  13. Todd Zola - mastersball.com

Here’s a link to the spreadsheet posted on the Tout Wars’ website that details each team’s roster.

I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Sunday’s auction.

Projections by Team - Hitting Categories

 


Owner

AB

AVG

HR

RBI

SB

R

Cockroft

5,987

.284

193

843

180

946

Hertz

6,205

.275

209

893

101

885

Kreutzer

5,333

.276

156

729

156

792

Leibowitz

5,426

.281

207

768

139

828

Lombardo

4,082

.282

156

658

58

628

Melnick

5,313

.265

213

783

112

858

Pianowski

7,033

.272

263

1,062

73

1,002

Ravitz

6,003

.279

193

784

155

884

Schwartz

5,007

.285

190

731

83

762

Walton

5,787

.262

191

798

132

887

Wilderman

5,587

.276

178

767

156

838

Wilton

5,543

.268

180

745

107

733

Zola

5,252

.284

184

729

105

760

 

 

Projections by Team - Pitching Categories

 


Owner

IP

W

SV

ERA

WHIP

K

Cockroft

1,220

68

31

4.06

1.27

1,130

Hertz

1,028

57

54

4.71

1.38

742

Kreutzer

1,416

82

0

4.18

1.30

1,017

Leibowitz

1,079

63

37

4.33

1.27

880

Lombardo

1,111

65

42

4.33

1.27

970

Melnick

1,078

58

12

4.51

1.31

989

Pianowski

1,156

62

65

3.99

1.33

1,014

Ravitz

1,068

63

72

3.80

1.25

942

Schwartz

954

54

74

4.25

1.30

786

Walton

1,243

69

38

4.60

1.28

981

Wilderman

995

53

55

4.67

1.32

928

Wilton

1,150

65

53

4.37

1.34

982

Zola

987

56

37

4.00

1.23

852

 

Projected Standings

 


Owner

H Pts

P Pts

Total Pts

Ravitz

44.5

52.5

97

Cockroft

56.5

36

92.5

Pianowski

45

35

80

Leibowitz

41

39

80

Walton

37

35

72

Schwartz

30

41

71

Hertz

42

28

70

Zola

26.5

42.5

69

Wilderman

33.5

26

59.5

Kreutzer

27.5

32

59.5

Melnick

37

20

57

Lombardo

14.5

38.5

53

Wilton

20

29.5

49.5

 

 

Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”.  However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant.  I’m sure if you asked them,  many, if not all, of the 13 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team.  Such is the nature of the beast.

 

Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:

  • At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so.  This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
  • I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction.  Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup.  I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
  • Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.

Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings gives a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction.  Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Predictions for 2009 Tout Wars: AL-only (Mon 3/30/09)

Monday, March 30th, 2009

Hi everyone,

This past Saturday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars AL-only auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan.  This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers).  Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers.  Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster.  The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.

Here are the 12 participants for 2009:

  1. Matthew Berry - ESPN.com
  2. Jason Collette - OwnersEdge.com
  3. Jeff Erickson - RotoWire
  4. Jason Grey - ESPN.com
  5. Lawr Michaels - CREATiVESPORTS.com
  6. Steve Moyer - baseballinfosolutions.com
  7. Dean Peterson - STATS LLC
  8. Ron Shandler - baseballHQ.com
  9. Joe Sheehan - BaseballProspectus.com
  10. Mike Siano - mlb.com
  11. Sam Walker - Wall Street Journal
  12. Rick Wolf/Glenn Colton - Rotoworld.com

Here’s a link to the spreadsheet posted on the Tout Wars’ website that details each team’s roster.

I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Saturday’s auction.

Projections by Team - Hitting Categories

Owner

AB

AVG

HR

RBI

SB

R

Berry

5,428

.277

205

782

102

754

Collette

5,913

.269

203

816

150

845

Erickson

5,388

.284

170

772

135

833

Grey

6,608

.276

218

946

177

1,014

Michaels

5,657

.277

173

789

126

859

Moyer

6,354

.283

226

972

111

975

Peterson

6,158

.276

228

897

94

943

Shandler

5,786

.281

188

806

129

890

Sheehan

5,485

.277

161

686

153

857

Siano

5,400

.281

170

781

87

851

Walker

6,397

.265

232

907

94

933

Wolf/Colton

5,261

.284

168

749

112

765

 

 

Projections by Team - Pitching Categories

Owner

IP

W

SV

ERA

WHIP

K

Berry

977

58

41

3.96

1.21

935

Collette

1,142

69

40

4.67

1.21

932

Erickson

1,026

63

51

4.64

1.34

853

Grey

823

48

54

3.82

1.30

654

Michaels

1,249

78

38

4.00

1.29

982

Moyer

1,211

77

33

4.42

1.27

949

Peterson

1,040

61

58

4.52

1.29

894

Shandler

956

56

19

4.81

1.33

826

Sheehan

915

56

31

4.45

1.25

806

Siano

1,034

63

46

4.20

1.29

843

Walker

1,013

63

44

4.15

1.33

907

Wolf/Colton

1,028

61

51

3.70

1.29

926

 

 

Projected Standings

Owner

H Pts

P Pts

Total Pts

Grey

47

39

86

Moyer

48

31

79

Peterson

36.5

33.5

70

Walker

34.5

32

66.5

Collette

31

33

64

Michaels

30

33

63

Siano

21.5

40

61.5

Wolf/Colton

22

38

60

Sheehan

29

30.5

59.5

Erickson

29.5

29.5

59

Berry

24

34

58

Shandler

37

16.5

53.5

 

Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”.  However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant.  I’m sure if you asked them,  many, if not all, of the 12 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team.  Such is the nature of the beast.

 

Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:

 

  • At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so.  This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
  • I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction.  Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup.  I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
  • Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.

Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings gives a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction.  Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

 

Sherpa Alert - Roto Arcade (Sun 3/29/09)

Sunday, March 29th, 2009

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to let all of you in Sherpaville know that Fantasy Baseball Sherpa was featured in Andy Behrens’ Roto Arcade blog that appears regularly  on Yahoo Fantasy Sports!   We participated last week in a 16-team Pro-Am league that will be played out during the course of the 2009 season - should be a lot of fun!  Following the results of the draft there’s a Q&A with each of the league’s participants.  Since I was drafting out of the #12 spot, my segment appears ~3/4 of the way through the entry.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa