In leagues that allow daily lineup changes some fantasy owners return year after year to the tactic of streaming pitchers as predictably as the swallows return each year to San Juan Capistrano. Many fantasy owners despise this polarizing tactic even more than they despise the thought of seven-figure bonuses being paid to AIG execs. Whichever side of the debate you come down on, unless your league rules are designed specifically to discourage it, there’s probably at least one owner in your league who employs it.
Simply put, owners seek to decide which pitcher among several with similar talent (or lack thereof) to use in their starting lineup based on the pitchers’ upcoming matchups. These decisions are usually based on perceptions of teams’ offensive capabilities (or lack thereof). However, there is actually a way to quantify teams’ offensive abilities that can guide owners in their selection of pitchers.
Here’s how the method works. Decide on the hitting team categories you wish to use to measure a team’s offensive strength. Ideally, these would mirror the pitching categories your league uses, but that’s not essential. For instance, if your league uses the standard 5 pitching categories of Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP, you might choose team losses (which is a good choice for both Wins & Saves), hitters’ strikeouts, runs scored, and walks+hits. Next, decide whether each hitting category you’ve chosen is a “positive” statistic (e.g. - runs scored, walks+hits) or a “negative” statistic (e.g. - losses, strikeouts).
For the “positive” stats give the league leading team a score of 1.00 and all other teams a score based on the ratio of their result to the league leading team’s result. For example, if the league leading team were projected to score 900 runs, a team projected to score 720 runs would receive a score of .80 ( = 720/900). For “negative” stats give the league leading team a score of -1.00 and all other teams a score based on the ratio of their result to the league leading team’s result. For example, if the league leading team were projected to strike out 1000 times, then a team that’s projected to strike out 750 times would receive a score of -0.75. By adding together a team’s result in each of the categories you’ve decided to measure, you can get a good gauge of their hitters’ abilities (at least from a fantasy perspective!) The higher a team’s hitting score, the better, so if you’re trying to select a team to stream a pitcher against, you’d want to pick teams with a low team hitting score.
For example, if I decide to measure a team’s hitting capabilities using the standard categories of AVG, Runs Scored, Home Runs, RBIs, and Stolen Bases, the maximum team hitting score would be 5.00, since all five are “positive” categories, and the maximum score in each category is 1.00 (I’ve used a proxy statistic for AVG). Using these five categories, here’s how I’d rank the 30 teams heading into the 2009 season (followed by their projected score on a scale with a maximum value of 5.00).
Washington 2.58
San Diego 2.70
Arizona 2.96
Pittsburgh 3.03
Detroit 3.10
San Francisco 3.10
Toronto 3.19
Chicago White Sox 3.25
Florida Marlins 3.25
Seattle 3.27
Atlanta 3.29
St. Louis 3.31
Kansas City 3.32
Colorado 3.36
Cincinnati 3.39
Milwaukee 3.42
Houston 3.45
Oakland 3.50
Cleveland 3.51
Minnesota 3.69
Tampa Bay 3.69
New York Mets 3.79
Los Angeles Dodgers 3.96
Philadelphia Phillies 4.02
Boston Red Sox 4.04
Baltimore Orioles 4.07
Texas Rangers 4.13
Chicago Cubs 4.28
New York Yankees 4.48
Los Angeles Angels 4.54
The exact rankings aren’t as important as the tiers that are formed. For example, using the hitting categories outlined above, there’s not much to pick from between the Phillies and the Red Sox, but there’s a huge difference between either of these teams and the Pirates & Diamondbacks.
These rankings will vary somewhat based on the hitting categories you choose, but again, I suspect the Phillies and Red Sox would fare much better than the Pirates and Diamondbacks for just about any imaginable group of hitting categories you’d select.
I’ve been asked a number of times recently by potential customers whether the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa Preseason Player Projections & Rankings are updated throughout Spring Training - the answer is an emphatic “YES!” I just made a number of updates this morning - no one in Sherpaville will be going to their draft or auction with outdated information if I can help it!
Just wanted to let everyone in Sherpaville know that I’ll be participating in a fantasy baseball mock draft tonight at Mock Draft Central. The draft starts at 8pm Eastern Time and features 12 industry experts. The format is a 5×5 mixed league (Hitting Categories: AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB; Pitching Categories: W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP). If you want to listen to some great, colorful commentary as the draft unfolds, tune in to Paul Greco, Lenny Melnick, and Tony Cincotta of Fantasy Pros 911 who will be describing the draft on Blog Talk Radio. I have the 1st pick in the first round (hmm, guess I won’t be taking A-Rod!).
Just wanted everyone in Sherpaville to know that I’ll be participating in the 24 hour Radio-a-thon on Blog Talk Radio to raise money for the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation. This event is being put together by Baseball Digest and FantasyPros911 I’ll be on the air Sunday morning from 10-10:20am (remember that Daylight Savings Time starts Sunday morningdifference!) w/ co-host Paul Greco, talking about fantasy baseball and the upcoming season.
Here’s the link to the show - hope you’re able to tune in, and please consider making a contribution to the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation!
Towards the end of the 1983 classic Return of the Jedi Emperor Palpatine tells Luke Skywalker “I can feel your anger” as he implores Luke to join the Dark Side of the Force.Yes, by making a Star Wars reference I’m dating myself, but as a friend of mine used to say, somebody’s got to do it.
Much like the Emperor Palpatine, I can feel the anger directed towards Alex Rodriguez by baseball fans in the wake of his recent admission that he used steroids from 2001-2003 while a member of the Texas Rangers.What impact did A-Rod’s steroid use have on his fantasy baseball value?Surprisingly, the answer is “not much”.
On my website FantasyBaseballSherpa.com I’ve created a method of evaluating players’ fantasy baseball impact called the Sherpa Points system.For counting stats such as home runs, RBI, etc., the league leader in the category is assigned a Sherpa Points score of 1.00.A player with half the league leader’s total in that category would receive a 0.50 Sherpa Points, a player with a quarter of the league leader’s total in that category would receive 0.25 Sherpa Points, etc.
For rate stats such as batting average a proxy statistic can be used.To get a player’s Total Sherpa Points across all fantasy categories, you simply add up his Sherpa Points in each individual category.If your fantasy league uses n hitting categories, then the maximum Total Sherpa Points would be n.Thus, we have a straightforward method of evaluating a player’s overall fantasy impact. The same method can be used to evaluate pitchers.
For the standard five hitting categories (AVG, HR, RBI, SB, R) here are Alex Rodriguez’ Total Sherpa Points scores by year since he became a full-time player in 1996 (max possible score is 5.00):
1996:3.70
1997:2.37
1998:3.63
1999:2.57
2000:3.29
2001:3.35
2002:3.67
2003:3.34
2004:2.87
2005:3.89
2006:2.77
2007:3.80
2008:2.92
The preceding makes it clear that while Rodriguez may have been more consistent from 2001-2003 than over any other three-year period of his career, he definitely did not perform at a higher level relative to his peers during those years.In fact, his best year during his “Steroid Period” (2002) stacks up as only the fourth-best fantasy season of his career, trailing 2005, 2007, and even 1996!
Perhaps you despise Rodriguez because you don’t like his personality, you think he doesn’t come through during the playoffs, you believe he’s still taking illegal substances, you hate the Yankees, or you get tired of reading about his off-the-field antics in the tabloids.Whatever the reason, if you want to maximize your chances for fantasy baseball success in 2009, you need to set that all aside and take him this year if he’s available when it’s your turn to draft.
I project the following stats for Rodriguez for 2009:.302 AVG, 44 HR, 133 RBI, 21 SB, 128 R, 3.65 Total Sherpa Points.When you factor in Position Scarcity (the drop-off between the top-rated options and the mediocre options at each position), you could make an argument that Hanley Ramirez (3.44 projected Total Sherpa Points) should be the top overall pick.However, given the relative uncertainty surrounding Ramirez (e.g. – will he be batting leadoff or third?will his supporting cast be weaker this year than in the past?), I would argue strongly for Rodriguez as the first overall pick.
Let go of your anger – it will not serve you well.
This is the sixth and final post in a series taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll finish the series by reviewing the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including CC Sabathia’s Indians’ stats only.
1. Roy Halladay (Preseason rank was 2) - TOR, SP
Actual stats: 246 IP, 20 W, 0 SV, 2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 206 K, 3.77 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
As you can see, there were a number of surprises on this list - the biggest were Cliff Lee, Ervin Santana, Mike Mussina, and John Danks. Note that Francisco Rodriguez did not make the Top 10, even while setting the MLB record with 62 Saves - for the record, he was ranked 21st with 1.84 Sherpa Points, finishing behind Rivera, Joakim Soria, Jonathan Papelbon, and Joe Nathan among Closers. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.
You’ll also note that only three of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other seven, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!
We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!); the 2009 projections should be available within the next 7-10 days.
This is the fifth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including only Manny Ramirez’ Red Sox’ stats (he ranked 43rd overall based on 365 At-Bats) and Mark Teixeira’s Angels’ stats (he ranked 64th based on 193 At-Bats)
1. Dustin Pedroia (Preseason rank was 45) - BOS, 2B
Actual stats: 653 AB, 17 HR, 83 RBI, 20 SB, .326 AVG, 118 R, 3.50 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
There were a number of surprises on this list, including Pedroia, Huff, and Youkilis. I didn’t think Josh Hamilton could stay healthy long enough to accumulate the necessary At-Bats to be a top fantasy producer, but I was mistaken. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results. Using this indicator, I have little doubt Alex Rodriguez would have been at the top of the list had he not missed almost a month due to injury (only the second time in 13 seasons as a full-time big-leaguer that he’d missed a significant number of games).
You’ll also note that only four of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!
We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll conclude this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Pitchers in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.
This is the fourth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll review the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including CC Sabathia’s Brewers’ stats only.
1. Tim Lincecum (Preseason rank was 23) - SF, SP
Actual stats: 227 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 265 K, 3.43 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
Ricky Nolasco was obviously a complete surprise to me, and Ryan Dempster wasn’t far behind. In theory Strikeouts and WHIP should be easier to predict than ERA, Wins, and Saves (since the latter group are more a function of randomness and factors beyond a Pitcher’s direct control), but those predictions aren’t always the most accurate in practice. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.
You’ll also note that only 4 of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!
We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.