The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

This is the fourth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll review the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including CC Sabathia’s Brewers’ stats only.

1. Tim Lincecum (Preseason rank was 23) - SF, SP

• Actual stats: 227 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 265 K, 3.43 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 183 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.28 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 203 K, 1.73 Sherpa Pts

2. Johan Santana (1) - NYM, SP

• Actual stats: 234.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 206 K, 3.31 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 224 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 237 K, 4.00 Sherpa Pts

3. Cole Hamels (7) - PHI, SP

• Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 196 K, 3.01 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 187 IP, 12 IP, 0 SV, 3.75 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 188 K, 2.44 Sherpa Pts

4. Brandon Webb (3) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 226.2 IP, 22 W, 0 SV, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183 K, 2.80 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 231 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 182 K, 3.23 Sherpa Pts

5. Dan Haren (6) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 216 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 206 K, 2.76 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 215 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.64 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 176 K, 2.56 Sherpa Pts

6. Ryan Dempster (106) - ChC, SP

• Actual stats: 206.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 187 K, 2.64 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 80 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 70 K, 0.53 Sherpa Pts

7. Ricky Nolasco (N/A - didn’t even have him in my preseason database!) - FLA, SP

• Actual stats: 212.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 186 K, 2.60 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: N/A

8. CC Sabathia (1 in A.L.) - MIL, SP

• Actual stats: 130.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 1.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 128 K, 2.58 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 227 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 196 K, 3.78 Sherpa Pts

9. Derek Lowe (16) - LAD, SP

• Actual stats: 211 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 147 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 207 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.87 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 138 K, 2.00 Sherpa Pts

10. Ben Sheets (28) - MIL, SP

• Actual stats: 198.1 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.09 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 158 K, 2.41 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 137 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 3.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 121 K, 1.58 Sherpa Pts

Ricky Nolasco was obviously a complete surprise to me, and Ryan Dempster wasn’t far behind. In theory Strikeouts and WHIP should be easier to predict than ERA, Wins, and Saves (since the latter group are more a function of randomness and factors beyond a Pitcher’s direct control), but those predictions aren’t always the most accurate in practice. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 4 of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

12. Jake Peavy (2) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 173.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 166 K, 2.17 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 216 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 230 K, 3.62 Sherpa Pts

11. Roy Oswalt (4) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 208.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 165 K, 2.33 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 224 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 166 K, 2.93 Sherpa Pts

99. John Smoltz (5) - ATL, SP

• Actual stats: 28 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 2.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 36 K, 0.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 185 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 166 K, 2.68 Sherpa Pts

98. Aaron Harang (8) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 184.1 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 4.78 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 153 K, 0.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 222 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 200 K, 2.44 Sherpa Pts

60. Chris Young (9) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 102.1 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 3.96 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 93 K, 0.85 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 185 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 166 K, 2.68 Sherpa Pts

132. Rafael Soriano (10) - ATL, RP

• Actual stats: 14 IP, 0 W, 3 SV, 2.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 16 K, 0.24 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 74 IP, 3 W, 34 SV, 2.80 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 76 K, 2.28 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

This is the third in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including only Manny Ramirez’ Dodgers’ stats (he ranked 59th overall based on just 59 At-Bats!) and Mark Teixeira’s Braves’ stats (he ranked 56th based on 381 At-Bats)

1. Albert Pujols (Preseason rank was 4) - STL, 1B

• Actual stats: 524 AB, 37 HR, 116 RBI, 7 SB, .357 AVG, 100 R, 3.46 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 528 AB, 37 HR, 110 RBI, 6 SB, .330 AVG, 105 R, 3.38 Sherpa Pts

2. David Wright (3) - NYM, 3B

• Actual stats: 626 AB, 33 HR, 124 RBI, 15 SB, .302 AVG, 115 R, 3.18 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 607 AB, 29 HR, 112 RBI, 26 SB, .316 AVG, 108 R, 3.46 Sherpa Pts

3. Hanley Ramirez (2) - FL, SS

• Actual stats: 589 AB, 33 HR, 67 RBI, 35 SB, .301 AVG, 125 R, 3.12 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 645 AB, 23 HR, 71 RBI, 52 SB, .310 AVG, 123 R, 3.48 Sherpa Pts

4. Lance Berkman (13) - HOU, 1B/OF

• Actual stats: 554 AB, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 18 SB, .312 AVG, 114 R, 3.06 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 562 AB, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 6 SB, .294 AVG, 96 R, 2.86 Sherpa Pts

5. Matt Holliday (1) - COL, OF

• Actual stats: 539 AB, 25 HR, 88 RBI, 28 SB, .321 AVG, 107 R, 3.03 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 636 AB, 33 HR, 125 RBI, 12 SB, .322 AVG, 114 R, 3.63 Sherpa Pts

6. Jose Reyes (8) - NYM, SS

• Actual stats: 688 AB, 16 HR, 68 RBI, 56 SB, .297 AVG, 113 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 673 AB, 13 HR, 65 RBI, 70 SB, .285 AVG, 116 R, 3.05 Sherpa Pts

7. Carlos Beltran (18) - NYM, OF

• Actual stats: 606 AB, 27 HR, 112 RBI, 25 SB, .284 AVG, 116 R, 2.90 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 553 AB, 33 HR, 108 RBI, 21 SB, .273 AVG, 103 R, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

8. Chase Utley (5) - PHI, 2B

• Actual stats: 607 AB, 33 HR, 104 RBI, 14 SB, .292 AVG, 113 R, 2.87 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 595 AB, 27 HR, 109 RBI, 13 SB, .318 AVG, 115 R, 3.28 Sherpa Pts

9. Ryan Ludwick (81) - STL, OF

• Actual stats: 538 AB, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 4 SB, .299 AVG, 104 R, 2.83 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 399 AB, 21 HR, 65 RBI, 2 SB, .261 AVG, 69 R, 1.45 Sherpa Pts

10. Ryan Braun (14) - MIL, 3B/OF

• Actual stats: 611 AB, 37 HR, 106 RBI, 14 SB, .285 AVG, 92 R, 2.73 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 592 AB, 39 HR, 99 RBI, 19 SB, .280 AVG, 104 R, 2.86 Sherpa Pts

The most interesting observation from my perspective - the impact of batting order position (imagine what Hanley Ramirez could do if he batted 3rd or 4th) and the lower-than-expected SB totals for both Ramirez and Jose Reyes, which bring them back to the pack somewhat in the overall rankings. Injuries also impacted the actual rankings (e.g. - Matt Holliday and Chase Utley), as did the lack of anticipated injuries (e.g. - Albert Pujols). Ryan Ludwick is the only name on the list I’d term a complete surprise. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 6 of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other four, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

11. Ryan Howard (6) - PHI, 1B

• Actual stats: 610 AB, 48 HR, 146 RBI, 1 SB, .251 AVG, 105 R, 2.71 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 560 AB, 44 HR, 130 RBI, 2 SB, .313 AVG, 116 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts

29. Jimmy Rollins (7) - PHI, SS

• Actual stats: 556 AB, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 47 SB, .277 AVG, 76 R, 2.10 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 684 AB, 24 HR, 81 RBI, 39 SB, .289 AVG, 128 R, 3.12 Sherpa Pts

25. Alfonso Soriano (9) - ChC, OF

• Actual stats: 453 AB, 29 HR, 75 RBI, 19 SB, .280 AVG, 76 R, 2.17 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 645 AB, 39 HR, 85 RBI, 26 SB, .285 AVG, 110 R, 3.02 Sherpa Pts

21. Derrek Lee (10) - ChC, 1B

• Actual stats: 623 AB, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 8 SB, .291 AVG, 93 R, 2.26 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 575 AB, 28 HR, 92 RBI, 14 SB, .311 AVG, 100 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Pitchers in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Great news! Just wanted to let everyone in Sherpaville know that our Fantasy Baseball Sherpa blog has been chosen as a finalist for the Fantasy Sports Trade Association’s (FSTA) Best Blog award! This award recognizes the website with the best combination of information and presentation in a blog. The winner will be announced next month at the FSTA’s meeting in St. Petersburg, FL.

We are doubly honored because our sister site’s Fantasy Football Sherpa blog has also been chosen as a finalist in the same category! (note: fortunately, unlike the Oscars, the FSTA has no rule against multiple nominations in the same category!)

Enjoy the rest of the holiday season, and best wishes for health and happiness in the new year!

The Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to let you know that I’ll be participating in a fantasy baseball mock draft tonight at Mock Draft Central. The draft starts at 8pm Eastern Time and features 12 industry experts. The format is a 5×5 mixed league (Hitting Categories: AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB; Pitching Categories: W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP). If you want to listen to some great, colorful commentary as the draft unfolds, tune in to Paul Greco and Lenny Melnick, who will be describing the draft on Blog Talk Radio. I have the 4th pick in the first round.

Hope you’re able to tune in/watch!

The Sherpa

Hi everyone!

Now that the 2008 baseball season is over, I wanted to share some exciting news with you - for the second year in a row I was the winner of SportsBuff.com’s fantasy baseball league for fantasy industry experts! My score also placed me in the Top 10 overall among all of the participants in SportsBuff.com’s fantasy baseball leagues - in many cases the fans do know more than the industry experts!

There were 33 other teams in the contest - other participants included Bob Radl of Sandlot Shrink, who writes very informative fantasy football and basketball analysis and obviously knows a lot about baseball too, and Scott Pianowski of Rotoaction.com, who also writes a highly informative and entertaining blog called “Closing Time” for Yahoo.

This particular contest was a salary cap game. It’s always interesting to debate whether these games require more skill than the more widely played rotisserie and head-to-head style games. Salary cap games typically require more in-season roster adjustments, but make it easier to replace an injured/underperforming player with a player of equal or greater ability. Rotisserie and head-to-head games typically put more emphasis on preseason player analysis and projections. From my perspective both are endlessly fascinating.

Thanks to SportsBuff.com’s Jeff Thomas and his team for putting on this contest year after year and giving those of us in the fantasy industry a chance to strut our stuff. I’ll be back again next season looking for a threepeat!!!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

An old baseball cliche describes the season as “a marathon, not a sprint”, and for most of the season, that comparison is appropriate. The baseball season has 26 weeks, a marathon is just over 26 miles, and surviving both requires a combination of pacing and persistence.

However, that comparison goes out the window in the final week of the baseball season for those managing a fantasy baseball team. With just a handful of games left on the schedule, there’s no time left to “pace yourself”. Those in head-to-head leagues are slugging it out for the league championship, a consolation round, or just for pride. Those in rotisserie leagues are scouring the standings, looking for opportunities to eke out a final precious point or two.

Regardless of which format your league uses, here are some helpful tips to keep in mind heading into the final week of the season:

1. Beware of injuries, especially to star players. If you still have the likes of Hideki Matsui, Carlos Guillen, or Yunel Escobar in your lineup (just to name a few), remove them from your lineup immediately! Don’t expect the Marlins to rush Hanley Ramirez back either. Teams will often shut down injured players early, especially if they’re out of the standings. Don’t get stuck with one of them in your lineup for the last week, or you may spend the entire off-season regretting it.
2. Maximize Games Played and Innings Pitched. If you’re trying to decide between two players of roughly similar ability for a spot in your final week’s lineup, remember to consider any differences in games played. Manny Ramirez may post better fantasy numbers over the course of a season than Carlos Beltran, but if the Mets play seven games in the final week of the season and the Dodgers play six, I’d go with Beltran in leagues that require you to set your lineup at the beginning of the week. The same goes for Middle Relievers and Closers.
3. Be careful in selecting 2-start Pitchers. Johan Santana is listed as a two-start pitcher this week. That means he has to be in your weekly lineup, right? Maybe not. Of course, I’d still rather have one start from Johan Santana than two starts from most pitchers in the league. However, if I’m chasing Wins or Strikeouts at this point and am fairly locked into a place in the ERA and WHIP categories, I’d be looking for other options. If the Mets are already locked into a playoff spot (either as the division winner or the wild card) heading into the weekend, there’s a good chance they’ll skip Santana’s second start so that he’ll be available to pitch twice in a five-game playoff series. Remember, MLB teams could care less about how their decisions impact our fantasy rosters!
4. Keep up to date on recent Closer changes. Maybe the other owners in your league have stopped paying attention if they’re no longer in contention. Maybe the other owners are all happy with their current Closers. Whatever the reason, check to see whether recently annointed Closers such as Chad Qualls and Matt Lindstrom are available in your league.
5. Assume that playoff-bound teams will rest players. It’s a safe bet that teams like the Cubs and Angels will go easy on their Starting Pitchers and give their everyday players at least one or two games off during the last week of the season since they have nothing to play for. Since both these teams have seven games this week, I wouldn’t count on the everyday players starting more than five games.
6. Start players on teams that still have something to play for. The Mets are Exhibit A here, since they’re still in the running for both their division crown and the NL wild card. The Diamondbacks are another team with 7 games this week that still has something to play for. Although the Brewers have just 6 games this week, the Mets’ bullpen figures to keep them in the wild card race at least until the start of the weekend. The White Sox/Twins race will likely be decided before the weekend, as will the Rays/Red Sox race, so expect those teams to rest players once the races are decided.
7. Watch for other fantasy teams’ discards. The final week of the season usually gives rise to some interesting, if not downright questionable moves on the part of fantasy team owners. The vast majority of these moves are not the result of collusion; rather, they are the result of fantasy team owners assessing which categories they can still make up ground in, then acting on that assessment. However, this can create some great opportunities for the vigilant owner. Perhaps another team has dropped a Stolen Base guy or two (e.g. Willy Taveras, Michael Bourn) in an effort to pick up a few more Home Runs the last week of the season. If you need Stolen Bases, be prepared to pounce.

Good luck the rest of the way!

The Sherpa

With just 2 1/2 weeks to go in the baseball season it’s obviously a lot harder to make up ground in your league’s standings than it was just last month. While the early stages of the baseball season can give rise to seismic shifts in the standings (seemingly on a daily basis), daily swings in the standings at this point in the season are usually confined to a couple of points in either direction.

However, that’s no excuse for throwing in the towel at this point. Everyone has something to play for at this point in the season. Maybe you’re running away with your league and want to see if you can break your league’s record for best single season. Maybe you’re in a tight race for first or to finish “in the money” or to avoid last place. Whatever your motivation, there’s still a lot of baseball left to be played and time to move up in the standings!

Here’s the process I go through at this point in the season in an effort to maximize my points in a rotisserie league:

1. Start with a current copy of your league’s standings. Go through the standings category by category and determine how many points you can potentially gain or lose in each category (it’s very important not to overlook the latter possibility!)
2. Determine your potential point swing in each category - at this point in the season I’d suggest using a one-week timeframe (i.e. - how much ground could I realistically gain/lose in the next week?). For instance, if you could potentially gain 1 point and lose 3 points in a given category, then your potential point swing for that category is 4.
3. Identify the 1-2 Hitting categories and the 1-2 Pitching categories with the biggest potential point swings.
4. Evaluate all potential roster moves by gauging their impact on the priority categories you’ve identified in Steps 1-3.

One caveat - be aware of correlations between categories when identifying your priority categories and evaluating your potential transactions. If you decide to prioritize a counting category (e.g. - AVG, OBP), be sure that you’re not benching your 3 best home run hitters for the upcoming week. Conversely, if you decide to prioritize an average-based category (e.g. - ERA, WHIP), make sure that you’re not benching all of your Starting Pitchers and giving up more ground than you’d anticipated in Wins and Strikeouts.

I’d suggest repeating these steps weekly, shortly before your league’s weekly transaction deadline (if applicable). By following this straightforward process, you’ll know that you gave yourself the best possible chance to maximize your points at the end of the season. Who wants to spend all Winter kicking themselves about the points that got away?

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Hard to believe, but we’re into the final three weeks of the baseball season! If you’re in a head-to-head league, you’re either in the middle of your league’s playoff schedule or just about to start it. For those of you in rotisserie leagues there isn’t as much change in the daily standings as there was earlier in the season, but there’s still time to maximize your team’s point total and climb in the standings.

One often overlooked way to accomplish just that is through the use of Set-up men & Middle Relievers. For the most part I’m referring to set-up man, although there are several teams with pitchers in both roles who can help your team down the stretch (e.g. - the Chicago White Sox’ Octavio Dotel and Matt Thornton).

Such a strategy requires tradeoffs. Using a Set-up man or Middle Reliever instead of a Starting Pitcher will reduce your ability to accumulate Wins, although substituting a Set-up man or Middle Reliever from a good team for a Starting Pitcher on a bad team will often mitigate this impact. One of the two Starting Pitchers receives the victory in approximately 70% of all games, which leaves Long Relievers, Middle Relievers, Set-up men, and Closers to fight over the other 30%. Since they typically pitch 30-40% of the number of innings as Starting Pitchers, Middle Relievers and Set-up men also rack up fewer Strikeouts, although their strikeout rates per inning (or 9 innings, if you prefer) are often higher than those for Starting Pitchers.

The biggest advantage in using above average Set-up men & Middle Relievers over mediocre to sub-par Starting Pitchers comes in the ERA and WHIP categories, which are often overlooked, if not outright ignored by fantasy owners. Unlike the counting categories such as Wins and Strikeouts, a fantasy team’s ERA and WHIP can move in either direction. Obviously, you have little or no control over other owners’ lineup decisions, but I’ve found that at this point in the season, owners will often make questionable decisions with respect to Starting Pitchers in an effort to maximize Wins. These questionable decisions often come back to haunt the owners who make them - the Starting Pitcher fails to win the game and does long-term damage to his owner’s ERA and WHIP in the process.

While it may be tempting to go with a highly-touted September call-up as a Starting Pitcher (particularly if he has two starts in a given week), you’ll usually be better off going with a top-flight Set-up man or Middle Reliever if your goal is to improve your place in the standings. Just be aware of your league’s Minimum Innings Pitched requirement (if any) and make sure you’re likely to satisfy it before you decide to employ this strategy.

Here’s a list of some Set-up men and Middle Relievers who may be currently available in your league:

NL: Jon Rauch, Will Ohman, Carlos Marmol, Jeff Samardzija, Jared Burton, Joe Nelson, Arthur Rhodes, Hong-Chih Kuo, Brian Stokes, Joe Smith, J.C. Romero, and Heath Bell.

AL: Scot Shields, Jose Arredondo, Hideki Okajima, Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Rafael Perez, Ramon Ramirez, Joba Chamberlain, Edwar Ramirez, Huston Street, Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, and Scott Downs.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to let you know that Fantasy Baseball Sherpa received some great coverage this week in an article written by fantasy sports columnist Steve Gardner that appears in the Sept 3-9 edition of USA Today Sports Weekly! The full-page article features my recommended Keepers by position heading into the 2009 season.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Last Monday evening I participated in Mock Draft Central’s Expert Draft #3, hosted by Geoff Stein. This draft was for a mixed league using the standard 5 Hitting categories (HRs, RBIs, SBs, AVG, Runs Scored) and 5 Pitching categories (Wins, Saves, Ks, ERA, WHIP). Here’s a link to the results by team:

http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/2008_fantasy_baseball_expert_draft_3.jsp

Some quick thoughts on my draft:

1. I was shocked when SS Hanley Ramirez fell all the way to me with the 5th pick in the 1st round. Other than 3B Alex Rodriguez, there’s no one I’d rather have for 2008 to anchor a team using the usual 5×5 scoring criteria.
2. I caught some flak from Paul Greco (who was broadcasting our draft live on Blog Talk Radio) for my pick of Catcher Victor Martinez with the 8th pick in the 2nd round. There were definitely players still available at that point who will contribute more in the Hitting categories than Martinez (e.g. - OF Vladimir Guerrero, OF Ichiro Suzuki, and 1B Mark Teixeira). So, why would I choose Martinez at that point even though “better” players were still available? It all comes back to Position Scarcity, which is the key principle underlying my player projections and rankings. When I look at the drop-off between Martinez and the Catchers I have ranked below him, it’s far greater than the drop-off between Guerrero, Suzuki, and Teixeira and the players I have ranked below them at their respective positions. Thus, it makes more sense at that point to take an elite player at a thin position like Catcher rather than an elite player at a deeper position like Outfield or First Base. Using this particular league’s Hitting categories, if I combine Victor Martinez with a mediocre Outfielder or First Baseman, then I will have a better overall score in the Hitting categories than if I were to combine an elite Outfielder or First Baseman with a mediocre Catcher.
3. Paul also questioned my selections of Roy Oswalt over Justin Verlander in the 5th round and John Smoltz over Felix Hernandez in the 7th round. No doubt, Verlander and Hernandez have brighter futures/higher ceilings at this point in their careers than Oswalt and Smoltz. However, I’m leery of projecting fantasy stardom for players (especially Pitchers, whose results are harder to project) before they have a track record of several consistent years of great results to back it up. I’ll take the steady, relatively predictable results of Oswalt and Smoltz over the potential of Verlander and Hernandez to anchor my pitching staff. The latter offer potential higher rewards, but the accompanying higher risk causes me to look elsewhere at this point in a draft.
4. I received a question during the draft from a viewer who wondered why I hadn’t taken any Outfielders through the first 5 rounds (indeed, I didn’t pick my first Outfielder until the 10th round!). Again, it all comes down to Position Scarcity: while other teams were busy scooping up the elite Outfielders, I was able to land Hanley Ramirez as my Shortstop, Victor Martinez as my first Catcher, and Howie Kendrick as my Second Baseman. I was still able to piece together an outfield consisting of Johnny Damon (10th round), Pat Burrell (12th round), Raul Ibanez (14th round), Jose Guillen (18th round), and Mark Teahen (23rd round).
5. Paul also questioned my pick of Arizona reliever Tony Pena in the 19th round when the anointed Diamondbacks’ Closer, Brandon Lyon, was still available. Going strictly by their stats over the last few seasons, I project that Pena will spend more time as the Diamondbacks’ Closer this year than Lyon. Knowing the tenuous hold that many Closers have on their starring roles, I felt this was a risk worth taking in the 19th round when I already had one “definite” Closer on my roster (Atlanta’s Rafael Soriano).

Finally, Mock Draft Central uses projections from 3 different sources (Baseball HQ, FantasyBaseball.com, and Big Dawg Baseball) to predict the “results” of a draft. Just to give you an idea for how dependent these results are on the underlying projections, 10 of the 12 experts ranked in the Top 6 in at least one of the three sets of rankings. I was one of just two experts to finish in the Top 6 according to all 3 sources (ESPN’s Brendan Roberts was the other) - Big Dawg Baseball’s projections had me in 1st place, Baseball HQ’s had me in 3rd place, and FantasyBaseball.com’s had me in 6th place.

Until next time,

The Sherpa