Here’s my fantasy baseball video preview of the 2012 Cincinnati Reds’ pitchers - which two Reds’ pitchers should you avoid having on your fantasy team at all costs, and which Reds’ starting pitcher is currently flying under the radar?
Since I’m a social media strategist by day and encourage everyone to make video part of their marketing effort, I’ve decided to take my own advice and finally enter the (late) 20th century.
First up - a fantasy baseball preview of the Arizona Diamondbacks’ hitters. We’ll see how this experiment goes - if it’s well-received (or I just feel the need to stroke my ego five dozen times), we’ll continue with a fantasy baseball preview of each team’s hitters and (separately) pitchers. I was hoping to keep the team hitter previews in the 2-3 minute range, but this first one is “a bit” longer than that. I’ll see what I can do in the future to shorten that time (e.g. - talk faster, write out a script, review the Houston Astros, etc.)
In the meantime, enjoy this first one, and let me know what you think!
With all the rumors flying around a week before the July 31st trade deadline (most of which will prove to be unfounded), predicting who will wind up where is particularly challenging. Fantasy owners also need to be mindful of the potential impacts of these trades, not only on the players involved, but also on the other players affected for both teams in the deal.
The following is a list of players whose fantasy value is likely to increase or decrease significantly by July 31st:
Lucas Duda, 1B/OF, NYM (Increase) - Carlos Beltran is almost certain to be traded, and that should open up significant at-bats for this budding power-hitter. He’ll play right field most days and occasionally spell David Murphy at first base.
Kyle Blanks, 1B/OF, SD (Increase)- Ryan Ludwick is another outfielder rumored to be on the move to a team in search of some outfield power. Trading Ludwick would open up left field for Blanks, which would in turn open up first base for teammate Jose Guzman.
Ryan Ludwick, OF, SD (Increase) - Speaking of Ludwick, his fantasy value would almost certainly increase if he were traded anywhere other than Cleveland.
Josh Willingham, OF, Oak (Increase) - ditto for Willingham, who must be counting down the days until he is traded from Oakland to a pennant contender (again, unless it’s Cleveland).
Mike Adams/Luke Gregerson, RP, SD (Increase) - Heath Bell is another player on the almost-certain-to-be-traded list - Adams is the likely successor as the Padres’ closer, unless the team decides to move him too. If that happens, Gregerson is the most likely candidate to close.
Edward Mujica, RP, Fla (Increase) - Manager Jack McKeon has already stated that Mujica is his likely closer if Leo Nunez is traded. The likelihood of Nunez being traded is anyone’s guess, but with so many contenders looking for bullpen help, I’d place the probability of that happening at ~75%.
Rich Harden, SP, Oak (Increase) - Sure, any team that trades for him knows that it’s assuming a sizable risk, but he’s the most talented starting pitcher thought to be available (sorry, Hideki Kuroda and Wandy Rodriguez). Boston, which isn’t sure when Clay Buchholz is returning or what it will get from him when he does, is a likely destination, with Cincinnati, Cleveland, and to a lesser extent Arizona, also possibilities.
Yonder Alonso, 1B/OF, Cin (Increase) - He’s likely to be included in any deal the Reds make to shore up their rotation. He’s a first baseman by trade but has been playing the outfield this season at Triple-A since he’s blocked by Joey Votto in Cincinnati.
Ian Desmond, SS, Was (Increase) - An Ian Desmond (and others) for B.J. Upton trade makes too much sense not too happen - both players could use a fresh start. While Upton’s batting average likely wouldn’t rise after changing teams, Desmond’s would - he’s a much better hitter than he’s shown this season. If anything, he’s been too patient at the plate, resulting in his getting behind in the count and expanding his strike zone.
Alex Presley, OF, Pit (Decrease) - If a rumored deal for Ludwick or Willingham takes place, Presley will most likely be the odd man out in spite of his play since his recent recall. If given the choice between Jose Tabata and Presley as his third outfielder, manager Clint Hurdle will likely opt for Tabata.
Garrett Jones, 1B/OF, Pit (Decrease) - He’s in a similar situation to Presley, but Jones could still move to first base if the Pirates decide to cut ties with the disappointing Lyle Overbay.
Nate Schierholtz, OF, SF (Decrease) - Like Presley, he’s played well recently, but that won’t stop the offensively-challenged Giants from seeking an upgrade (read: Carlos Beltran).
J.J. Putz, Closer, Ari (Decrease) - If the Diamondbacks think they have a legitimate shot to catch the Giants in the NL West, it’s unlikely they’ll rely on David Hernandez and the injury-prone Putz to close out games for them. An intradivision trade for Heath Bell is unlikely, but a trade with the Marlins for Leo Nunez would make a lot of sense.
Heath Bell, Closer, SD (Decrease) - Almost any team that trades for Bell would use him as a closer, but one that might not is Texas, which already has Neftali Feliz, even if he hasn’t been as dominant this season as last.
Hiroki Kuroda, SP, LAD (Decrease) - It’s easy to conclude that if Kuroda moved to a better team, his win total would go up. However, wins are largely arbitrary, and almost any team he’d be traded to would have a less-spacious park than the Dodgers.
Roger Bernadina/Laynce Nix, OF, Was (Decrease) - If the rumored trade for B.J. Upton goes through, Bernadina will be bumped, and will probably split time with Nix in left field.
I’ve omitted Carlos Beltran, Wandy Rodriguez, and B.J. Upton from this list, even though they’re good candidates to be traded, because I don’t believe that a change of scenery will significantly affect their fantasy values.
With the season reaching the halfway point I figured it would be fun to take a look back to see who have been the most valuable fantasy baseball performers so far. Justin Verlander and Matt Kemp have been two players grabbing a lot of headlines this season with their play, so it should come as little to no surprise that they rank first and second in the standard 5×5 mixed league format through yesterday’s games. Here are the lists of the top ten hitters and pitchers through the games of Saturday, July 2nd (Total Sherpa Points based on a max of 5.00, which would be a player’s score if he led the league in all five hitting or pitching categories):
Top 10 Hitters
Matt Kemp (3.81) - 293 AB, .331 AVG, 22 HR, 63 RBI, 22 SB, 52 R
Adrian Gonzalez (3.42) - 327 AB, .352 AVG, 16 HR, 71 RBI, 1 SB, 56 R
Ryan Braun (3.42) - 299 AB, .321 AVG, 16 HR, 60 RBI, 19 SB, 57 R
Jose Reyes (3.38) - 344 AB, .352 AVG, 3 HR, 32 RBI, 30 SB, 65 R
Jose Bautista (3.24) - 261 AB, .326 AVG, 24 HR, 52 RBI, 5 SB, 61 R
Granderson, Konerko, and (to a lesser extent) Ellsbury are the biggest surprises on this list - before the season you would have expected to see some combination of Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki, and David Wright taking up three of the spots in a season-to-date top ten list. It will be interesting to see how much Jose Reyes’ latest injury affects both his fantasy value and his real-life trade value.
CC Sabathia (2.67) - 129.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.05 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 106 K
Dan Haren (2.65) - 116.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 98 K
David Price (2.52) - 118.0 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 3.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 116 K
Can’t say that any of the names on the pitchers’ list are a surprise except for James Shields. Most people thought he would bounce back from a 2010 season that wasn’t as bad as his fantasy stats would indicate, but I don’t think anyone (or at least not anyone I know) predicted he would be a top ten pitcher at this point, much less a top five pitcher. And fear not, Phillie fans - even without Roy Oswalt, your team still has plenty of pitching left to run away with the NL East and beat any team in either league in a playoff series.
Hope you’re enjoying your 4th of July holiday weekend!