The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

With all the rumors flying around a week before the July 31st trade deadline (most of which will prove to be unfounded), predicting who will wind up where is particularly challenging.  Fantasy owners also need to be mindful of the potential impacts of these trades, not only on the players involved, but also on the other players affected for both teams in the deal.

The following is a list of players whose fantasy value is likely to increase or decrease significantly by July 31st:

1. Lucas Duda, 1B/OF, NYM (Increase) - Carlos Beltran is almost certain to be traded, and that should open up significant at-bats for this budding power-hitter.  He’ll play right field most days and occasionally spell David Murphy at first base.
2.  Kyle Blanks, 1B/OF, SD (Increase)- Ryan Ludwick is another outfielder rumored to be on the move to a team in search of some outfield power.  Trading Ludwick would open up left field for Blanks, which would in turn open up first base for teammate Jose Guzman.
3. Ryan Ludwick, OF, SD (Increase) - Speaking of Ludwick, his fantasy value would almost certainly increase if he were traded anywhere other than Cleveland.
4. Josh Willingham, OF, Oak (Increase) - ditto for Willingham, who must be counting down the days until he is traded from Oakland to a pennant contender (again, unless it’s Cleveland).
5. Mike Adams/Luke Gregerson, RP, SD (Increase) - Heath Bell is another player on the almost-certain-to-be-traded list - Adams is the likely successor as the Padres’ closer, unless the team decides to move him too.  If that happens, Gregerson is the most likely candidate to close.
6. Edward Mujica, RP, Fla (Increase) - Manager Jack McKeon has already stated that Mujica is his likely closer if Leo Nunez is traded.  The likelihood of Nunez being traded is anyone’s guess, but with so many contenders looking for bullpen help, I’d place the probability of that happening at ~75%.
7. Rich Harden, SP, Oak (Increase) - Sure, any team that trades for him knows that it’s assuming a sizable risk, but he’s the most talented starting pitcher thought to be available (sorry, Hideki Kuroda and Wandy Rodriguez).  Boston, which isn’t sure when Clay Buchholz is returning or what it will get from him when he does, is a likely destination, with Cincinnati, Cleveland, and to a lesser extent Arizona, also possibilities.
8. Yonder Alonso, 1B/OF, Cin (Increase) - He’s likely to be included in any deal the Reds make to shore up their rotation.  He’s a first baseman by trade but has been playing the outfield this season at Triple-A since he’s blocked by Joey Votto in Cincinnati.
9. Ian Desmond, SS, Was (Increase) - An Ian Desmond (and others) for B.J. Upton trade makes too much sense not too happen - both players could use a fresh start.  While Upton’s batting average likely wouldn’t rise after changing teams, Desmond’s would - he’s a much better hitter than he’s shown this season.  If anything, he’s been too patient at the plate, resulting in his getting behind in the count and expanding his strike zone.
10. Alex Presley, OF, Pit (Decrease) - If a rumored deal for Ludwick or Willingham takes place, Presley will most likely be the odd man out in spite of his play since his recent recall.  If given the choice between Jose Tabata and Presley as his third outfielder, manager Clint Hurdle will likely opt for Tabata.
11. Garrett Jones, 1B/OF, Pit (Decrease) - He’s in a similar situation to Presley, but Jones could still move to first base if the Pirates decide to cut ties with the disappointing Lyle Overbay.
12. Nate Schierholtz, OF, SF (Decrease) - Like Presley, he’s played well recently, but that won’t stop the offensively-challenged Giants from seeking an upgrade (read: Carlos Beltran).
13. J.J. Putz, Closer, Ari (Decrease) - If the Diamondbacks think they have a legitimate shot to catch the Giants in the NL West, it’s unlikely they’ll rely on David Hernandez and the injury-prone Putz to close out games for them.  An intradivision trade for Heath Bell is unlikely, but a trade with the Marlins for Leo Nunez would make a lot of sense.
14. Heath Bell, Closer, SD (Decrease) - Almost any team that trades for Bell would use him as a closer, but one that might not is Texas, which already has Neftali Feliz, even if he hasn’t been as dominant this season as last.
15. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, LAD (Decrease) - It’s easy to conclude that if Kuroda moved to a better team, his win total would go up.  However, wins are largely arbitrary, and almost any team he’d be traded to would have a less-spacious park than the Dodgers.
16. Roger Bernadina/Laynce Nix, OF, Was (Decrease) - If the rumored trade for B.J. Upton goes through, Bernadina will be bumped, and will probably split time with Nix in left field.

I’ve omitted Carlos Beltran, Wandy Rodriguez, and B.J. Upton from this list, even though they’re good candidates to be traded, because I don’t believe that a change of scenery will significantly affect their fantasy values.

The Sherpa

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With the season reaching the halfway point I figured it would be fun to take a look back to see who have been the most valuable fantasy baseball performers so far.  Justin Verlander and Matt Kemp have been two players grabbing a lot of headlines this season with their play, so it should come as little to no surprise that they rank first and second in the standard 5×5 mixed league format through yesterday’s games.  Here are the lists of the top ten hitters and pitchers through the games of Saturday, July 2nd (Total Sherpa Points based on a max of 5.00, which would be a player’s score if he led the league in all five hitting or pitching categories):

Top 10 Hitters

1. Matt Kemp (3.81) - 293 AB, .331 AVG, 22 HR, 63 RBI, 22 SB, 52 R
2. Adrian Gonzalez (3.42) - 327 AB, .352 AVG, 16 HR, 71 RBI, 1 SB, 56 R
3. Ryan Braun (3.42) - 299 AB, .321 AVG, 16 HR, 60 RBI, 19 SB, 57 R
4. Jose Reyes (3.38) - 344 AB, .352 AVG, 3 HR, 32 RBI, 30 SB, 65 R
5. Jose Bautista (3.24) - 261 AB, .326 AVG, 24 HR, 52 RBI, 5 SB, 61 R
6. Curtis Granderson (3.14) - 294 AB, .276 AVG, 21 HR, 56 RBI, 14 SB, 70 R
7. Miguel Cabrera (2.99) - 280 AB, .332 AVG, 17 HR, 56 RBI, 1 SB, 60 R
8. Prince Fielder (2.86) - 285 AB, .302 AVG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 0 SB, 49 R
9. Paul Konerko (2.84) - 293 AB, .321 AVG, 21 HR, 61 RBI, 1 SB, 39 R
10. Jacoby Ellsbury (2.83) - 323 AB, .300 AVG, 9 HR, 40 RBI, 25 SB, 55 R

Granderson, Konerko, and (to a lesser extent) Ellsbury are the biggest surprises on this list - before the season you would have expected to see some combination of Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki, and David Wright taking up three of the spots in a season-to-date top ten list.  It will be interesting to see how much Jose Reyes’ latest injury affects both his fantasy value and his real-life trade value.

Top 10 Pitchers

1. Justin Verlander (3.93) - 135.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 2.32 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 130 K
2. Jared Weaver (3.42) - 123.1 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 1.97 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 106 K
3. Roy Halladay (3.33) - 127.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.40 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 123 K
4. James Shields (3.27) - 128.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.45 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 127 K
5. Cole Hamels (3.15) - 116.0 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.41 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 110 K
6. Cliff Lee (2.97) - 122.0 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 119 K
7. Clayton Kershaw (2.84) - 116.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 128 K
8. CC Sabathia (2.67) - 129.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.05 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 106 K
9. Dan Haren (2.65) - 116.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 98 K
10. David Price (2.52) - 118.0 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 3.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 116 K

Can’t say that any of the names on the pitchers’ list are a surprise except for James Shields.  Most people thought he would bounce back from a 2010 season that wasn’t as bad as his fantasy stats would indicate, but I don’t think anyone (or at least not anyone I know) predicted he would be a top ten pitcher at this point, much less a top five pitcher.  And fear not, Phillie fans - even without Roy Oswalt, your team still has plenty of pitching left to run away with the NL East and beat any team in either league in a playoff series.

Hope you’re enjoying your 4th of July holiday weekend!

The Sherpa

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Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

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Hi everyone,

We’re back after an unexcused absence last week.  What’s been going on since our last newsletter a couple of weeks ago?  Francisco Liriano and Justin Verlander threw no-hitters; Anibal Sanchez just missed his second of the year, and Jaime Garcia also had a near miss.  Sanchez and Garcia are just two of many young pitchers showing their impressive stuff early this season; that group also includes Justin Masterson, Zach Britton, Bud Norris, and Brandon Beachy.  With so many pitchers pitching so well it’s remarkable Andre Ethier managed a 30-game hitting streak.

Thoughts from Weeks 4 & 5

• Hurt locker - Those who’ve hit the DL in the past two weeks include Nelson Cruz, Pablo Sandoval, Roy Oswalt, David Freese, Delmon Young, Jonathan Broxton, Carlos Ruiz, Brandon Lyon, Ty Wigginton, Nyjer Morgan, and Eric Chavez.  Joe Mauer, Ryan Zimmerman, and Kendry Morales are all expected to be sidelined longer than originally anticipated.
• Welcome to The Show! - Eric Hosmer is by far the biggest name to make his MLB debut recently; that group also includes Alex White, Julio Teheran, Ben Revere, Rene Tomasoni, and Brandon Guyer.
• Welcome back!  - Neftali Feliz, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Aaron Hill, Clint Barmes, Ian Stewart, Maicer Izturis, Hong-Chih Kuo, Jay Gibbons, Allen Craig, Ronny Paulino, and Michael Wuertz have all returned from DL stints of varying lengths.  Scott Sizemore, Dillon Gee, Russell Mitchell, and Craig Gentry have all returned to the majors from the minor leagues.
• Thanks for playing - better luck next time!  - Julio Teheran and Brandon Guyer deserve special mention here - they were both called up for a day before being shipped back to the minors.  Kila Ka’aihue, Will Rhymes, Taylor Teagarden, Mike Nickeas, A.J. Ellis, and Felipe Lopez can now be found starring (hopefully) at a minor league park near you.  The Mariners have designated both Milton Bradley and Ryan Langerhans for assignment.  I guess they feel they can lose just as easily with younger, cheaper players as they can with older, more expensive players.
• Closer roulette - Neftali Feliz has returned to reclaim the closer’s role in Texas.  Mark Melancon has taken over for the injured Brandon Lyon in Houston, and Vicente Padilla (?!?) has taken over for the injured Jonathan Broxton in Los Angeles.  Fernando Salas is the latest flavor of the month for Tony La Russa and the Cardinals - perhaps that’s explained by TLR’s vision (or lack thereof).  Kyle Farnsworth in Tampa, Sergio Santos in Chicago, Brian Fuentes in Oakland, Matt Capps in Minnesota, and Ryan Madson in Philadelphia have all solidified their grips on their respective teams’ closer roles.
• Role play - Conor Jackson and Ryan Sweeney are seeing more time at the expense of Hideki Matsui, Josh Willingham, and Daric Barton in Oakland.  Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto have returned to the Reds’ rotation; Sam LeCure and Mike Leake have taken up residence in Cincinnati’s bullpen - Travis Wood has survived the changes and remains in the rotation (for now).  With Nelson Cruz on the DL in Texas Mitch Moreland shifts to the outfield, opening up at-bats at first base for Chris Davis.  Given that Davis is a switch-hitter and the Rangers just sent Taylor Teagarden down to the minors again, Mike Napoli won’t pose much of a threat to Davis if the latter hits well.  Brandon Wood has been playing almost every day in Pittsburgh, filling in for the injured Pedro Alvarez at third and the ineffectual Ronny Cedeno at shortstop.  David Freese will miss several months for the Cardinals, but Allen Craig won’t necessarily get much playing time at third - look for some combination of Daniel Descalso, Nick Punto, and perhaps even Tyler Greene in Freese’s absence.  Daniel Murphy has maintained his playing time edge over Justin Turner at second base for the Mets, while Jason Pridie continues to be the primary beneficiary of Angel Pagan’s continued absence.  Robert Andino’s run as the Orioles’ regular shortstop (more or less) will come to an end when J.J. Hardy returns from the DL this week.  Wilson Ramos continues to take more and more of the playing time at catcher away from Ivan Rodriguez for the Nats.  Finally, Raul Ibanez shows signs of shaking his slump for the Phillies, but expect John Mayberry to get more at-bats going forward.  Ibanez’ continued struggles almost guarantee that Ben Francisco will see at least semi-regular at-bats even after Domonic Brown returns from his rehab assignment in the minors.

Strategy Corner

• Mound presents - Clearly, if your team’s pitchers are the primary cause of your team’s disappointing performance so far this season, the answer must be . . . add more pitchers???  Yes, that’s right.  Assuming that you don’t have any absolute clunkers on  your staff (Joe Saunders and Kyle Davies come to mind), one possible course of strategy is to employ the “set ‘em and forget ‘em” approach with your hitters, then use all available bench spots on starting pitchers.  Then choose your starting pitchers each week based on who has the most favorable matchup(s).  Don’t be worried about starting a guy with “lousy peripherals” if he’s got a favorable matchup or two during the upcoming week, especially if you play in a head-to-head league.
• Minor developments - Most hard-core baseball fans were already familiar with Eric Hosmer, Ben Revere, and Julio Teheran well before they were called up, but how do you spot the next Jerry Sands (or any other player who takes the minor leagues by storm after not receiving a ton of hype in the preseason)?  My favorite source for minor league stats is the official site of minor league baseball - you can easily identify league leaders for the International and Pacific Coast Leagues (as well as the Mexican League, if you’re interested).
• Beyond BABIP - While we’re on the subject of great statistical sources, if you don’t already use Fangraphs, you should definitely become familiar with this site.  Suppose you’ve noticed that Hanley Ramirez has a batting average that’s hovering around the Mendoza Line and a correspondingly awful batting average on balls in play (BABIP).  Are pitchers pitching him differently?  Is he swinging at more balls outside of the strike zone?  Is he hitting fewer line drives and more ground balls?  Use Fangraphs to look at the underlying data and draw your own conclusions.  For example, if you had looked at Derek Jeter’s Fangraphs profile in the middle of last season, you would have seen clearly that his low BABIP was driven by a disturbing increase at the number of pitches outside of the strike zone he was swinging at, which made the resulting large increase in ground ball percentage much easier to understand.  Similar analyses can be performed for pitchers.

Wrapping up

• 2011 marks the second season that I’m writing a weekly entry for Fantasy Windup, Steve Gardner’s fantasy baseball blog on USAToday.com.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week.  My entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like me to cover in future posts, please send in a note with your suggestion(s)!

• Baseball season ends in September, not in May!  If you’re not already a subscriber to the Sherpa’s In-season Updates, you owe it to yourself to sign up today!  Use this state-of-the-art tool to guide your roster moves, set your lineup, and help you evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  We currently have 790 players in the database and will be adding more as the season progresses.  The remainder-of-season forecasts are updated daily for every player and reflect just about any move an MLB team can make (minor league call-ups, DL moves, batting order changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, suspensions, and other roster moves).  You can even customize these forecasts to reflect your league’s scoring categories!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

Week 3 featured . . . the weather wreaking havoc with the schedule.  In between the raindrops Cardinals’ manager Tony La Russa demonstrated that he’s a better meteorologist than Reds’ counterpart Dusty Baker.    Boston “finally” started winning, and things began to return to “normal” in Red Sox Nation.  Ryan Braun signed an ill-advised five-year contract extension, making him an even richer man.  The Marlins’ pitchers seemed to take a potential no-hitter late into games almost every night, but Hanley Van Winkle Ramirez has yet to awaken from his winter slumber.  Finally, Roy Halladay capped off a week of sterling pitching performances with your typical 14-strikeout game (yawn).

Thoughts from Week 3

• Hurt locker - Neftali Feliz, Victor Martinez, Logan Morrison, Angel Pagan, Dallas Braden, Aaron Hill, Scott Rolen, Nyjer Morgan, Jose Contreras, Jayson Nix, Juan Francisco, Skip Schumaker, and Allen Craig were among those who hit the DL this week.  Albert Pujols suffered a “minor hamstring strain” in Sunday night’s game, and is expected to miss several days, but he’ll apparently be able to avoid the DL.  Kendry Morales’ return date keeps getting pushed back further and further.

• Welcome to The Show! - Jerry Sands and Carlos Peguero were the most notable names among those who made their major league debuts this week.

• Welcome back! - Brandon Morrow and Jason Bay made their 2011 regular season debuts after returning from the DL.  Others returning after DL stints included Ubaldo Jimenez, Frank Francisco, Erick Aybar, Cody Ross, LaTroy Hawkins, Ryan Perry, and Nick Punto.  Chris Valaika, Jason Pridie, Mark Hamilton, Jeremy Hermida, and Jason Turner all returned to the big leagues after biding their time in the minors.  Special mention goes out to Brandon Wood, who was designated for assignment by the Angels, traded to the Pirates, and brought back up to the majors within the week.

• Thanks for playing; better luck next time! - Among those sent back to the minors this week were Ian Stewart, Brett Cecil, Jesus Flores, and George Kottaras.  But Brandon Belt’s demotion takes the cake (so to speak) - he was sent down on his 23rd birthday  (hey kid, we got you a birthday cake - sorry you aren’t here any more to enjoy it with us).  Honorable mention goes to Brad Emaus, whom the Mets selected last winter from Toronto during the Rule 5 draft; after being designated for assignment by the Mets Emaus was traded to the Rockies.  Unfortunately, Emaus’ story doesn’t end as happily as Brandon Wood’s (see previous bullet) - he was promptly sent down to the minors by the Rockies.

• Closer roulette - Things were relatively quiet on the closer front during the week, but then picked up unexpectedly over the weekend.  In St. Louis Mitchell Boggs seems to be adapting quickly to the closer’s role, as he finished the week with 3 saves.  Eduardo Sanchez appears to have moved ahead of Jason Motte for the time being in the pecking order, and thankfully Miguel Batista isn’t likely to pitch in a 9th inning anytime soon unless he’s performing mop-up duty.  Go ahead and discard Ryan Franklin - unlike Joe Nathan, Franklin has no realistic shot to regain the closer role in the foreseeable future.  The weekend injury bug bit first in Texas, where Neftali Feliz will be replaced by a committee that includes Darren Oliver, Arthur Rhodes, and perhaps even Darren O’Day.  Next, Jose Contreras was bitten by the bug - Ryan Madson inherits the closer job in South Philly with Antonio Bastardo available on days when Madson isn’t.  Madson has had a number of high profile meltdowns before as a closer, so Bastardo is a decent hedge.  Only time will tell whether Madson truly has “the right stuff”, or if he’s cut from the same cloth as Rafael Betancourt and LaTroy Hawkins (i.e. - great setup men who, for whatever reason, failed repeatedly when given the chance to close).  Drew Storen has solidified his hold on the Nationals’ 9th-inning duties.  Since the White Sox have lost 10 out of their last 11 it isn’t apparent whether Matt Thornton still has his job as the closer.  Even if he does, it appears to be just a matter of time before Chicago gives Sergio Santos a shot - he makes a good speculative pickup if he’s still available in your league.

• Role play - Daniel Murphy appears to be the chief beneficiary of Emaus’ departure, although Jason Turner may also be given a shot at regular at-bats.  Brett Gardner is slumping horribly against all types of pitching; expect Andruw Jones to gain more playing time while Gardner figures things out.  Curtis Granderson continues to build on the improvements he made during the second half of last season, but I’m a skeptic - he makes an excellent sell high candidate if you can find a taker.  Cody Ross will get most of the playing time that Brandon Belt left behind.  Ryan Raburn and Michael Cuddyer have both been receiving playing time at second base recently - Cuddyer’s almost certainly gone already in competitive leagues, but Raburn may still be available.  Jerry Sands was ostensibly brought up to clear up the Dodgers’ mess in left field, but if James Loney continues to struggle don’t be surprised if Sands settles in as the everyday first baseman.  The Reds brought up Chris Valaika, but it appears to be Nick Punto who will see the biggest increase in playing time with both Scott Rolen and Juan Francisco out.

Strategy corner

• Early season call-ups - a dilemma that fantasy owners often find themselves faced with early in the season is how to deal with call-ups (either real or anticipated) of big-time prospects.  Do you spend your money now on a Jerry Sands or save your money in hopes that a Julio Teheran, Jesus Montero, Desmond Jennings, or Mike Trout will be called up in early June after the Super 2 deadline has passed?  I’m definitely in the “bird in hand is worth two in the bush” school of thought.  First, there’s not guarantee the prospects who aren’t up yet are going to perform well enough to merit a call-up.  Second, even if they do, chances are that multiple people in  your league will also be hanging on to their FAAB money or waiver priority for the same player(s) you’re interested in waiting for.  Third, and most importantly, the earlier in the season you get someone on your roster, the more of a chance that player has to make a meaningful difference (hopefully in a good way) on your team’s results for the season.  If you’re in a league that uses weekly scoring periods (i.e. - no carryover impact from one week to the next), then it makes sense to spend your FAAB budget roughly evenly throughout the season because a player’s impact on your team’s results is proportional to how many weeks are left in the season when you pick him up.  However, if that isn’t the case (i.e. - you use a season-long scoring period), then the later in the season you pick up a player, the more difficult it becomes for him to make a meaningful difference in your average-based categories.

• Anticipating propsect call-ups - Last week I got lucky in one of my leagues and picked up Jerry Sands for $5 (annual FAAB budget is $100) the day before he was called up.  There were no other bids on Sands, so at first I was kicking myself for wasting $5 ($0 bids are allowed).  However, if that same player had been called up two days earlier, he undoubtedly would have gone for much more than $5 in our weekly FAAB bidding.  How do you know when a prospect is about to be called up, especially if it’s not late May/early June or late August/early September?  Take a close look at the team in question.  The Dodgers think of themselves as a playoff contender this season, so they felt motivated to make a move in an effort to get more production from their offense.  That goal outweighed whatever financial benefits they would have gained by calling Sands up after the Super 2 deadline.  Conversely, a similar situation has developed in Kansas City but is being handled differently.  Kila Ka’aihue has been a disaster, and “can’t miss” prospect Eric Hosmer has been denting scoreboards in Triple-A.  Still, the Royals know that in spite of their hot start this year that they don’t have realistic playoff expectations, so it makes little sense for them to “rush” Hosmer.  There are always exceptions - the Giants held off on calling up Buster Posey last year, and it almost cost them a playoff spot.  Several years ago the Devil Rays called up Evan Longoria in early May.  However, there were mitigating circumstances in both cases.    The Giants had a veteran catcher (Bengie Molina) whom they’d just spent pretty good money on in free agency - they eventually traded him to Texas.  The Rays were campaigning very publicly to get a new stadium built for their team, and they wanted to put the best possible players on the field to sway public opinion in their favor.  See?  Things are never as simple as they appear to be.

• DL spots  - If you’re in a league that allows roster moves 24/7 or daily, stop a minute the next time you want to dump a player from your current roster and pick up another one.  Instead of making the add and drop simultaneously, first drop the offending player, then pick up a desirable player who’s currently on the DL (assuming you currently have unused DL spots).  Once you’ve picked up the player on the DL, move him to your team’s DL.  If you still have DL spots remaining, repeat as necessary.  Once you’ve filled all your DL spots pick up the player you would have added if you’d done a straight add-drop initially.  If you’re doing this with multiple players two guidelines apply: (1) only pick up the DL’d player if you’d also pick him up if he were healthy and available.  No sense in wasting a DL spot on Trevor Crowe unless you’re in a 30-team AL-only league, and even then maybe not (2) stagger the expected return dates of your DL’d player if possible.  If you pick up only guys that are due back much later in the season (e.g. - Johan Santana), you just make it more likely you’ll have to drop one of those players the next time a player on your current active roster needs to go on the DL.

Wrapping up

• 2011 marks the second season that I’m writing a weekly entry for Fantasy Windup, Steve Gardner’s fantasy baseball blog on USAToday.com.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week.  My entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like me to cover in future posts, please send in a note with your suggestion(s)!

• Baseball season ends in September, not in April.  If you’re not already a subscriber to the Sherpa’s In-season Updates, you owe it to yourself to sign up today!  Use this state-of-the-art tool to guide your roster moves, set your lineup, and help you evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  We currently have 750 players in the database and will be adding more as the season progresses.  The remainder-of-season forecasts are updated daily for every player and reflect just about any move an MLB team can make (minor league call-ups, DL moves, batting order changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, suspensions, and other roster moves).  You can even customize these forecasts to reflect your league’s scoring categories!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

Week 2 featured plenty of stars hitting the DL, and the usual mid-April statistical anomalies.  When else would you find the Indians and Royals tied for first place, or several of the league-leaders in home runs on the waiver wire?  Dan Haren and Jared Weaver are both on pace to become the first 30-game winners since Denny McClain in the late 1960s.  Zach Britton, Jed Lowrie, and David Murphy are flying off waiver wires.  The Mets’ tragic number is already down to 2, or so it seems.  Last, and certainly not least, Barry Bonds was acquitted on all counts except for a federal obstruction of justice charge - your taxpayer dollars at work!

Thoughts from Week 2

• Hurt locker - Josh Hamilton, Ryan Zimmerman, and Joe Mauer were the biggest names to hit the DL last week, but certainly not the only ones.  Rajai Davis, Rafael Furcal, and Chris “The Pitcher” Young all joined them, as did many others.  Meanwhile, Jason Bay, Kendry Morales, and Brian Matusz all look like they’re going to be out longer than originally expected.
•  Welcome to The Show! - Eduardo Sanchez, a reliever for the Cardinals, made the most dramatic debut last week, striking out 8 of the first 9 major league hitters he faced.  In spite of the fact that Tony La Russa won the 2006 World Series with a rookie closer (Adam Wainwright), The Genius has yet to name Sanchez his new closer (see below middle C).  Also, a belated acknowledgement of Michael Pineda’s great start to his major league career.
• Welcome back! - Corey Patterson, Jeff Francis, Casey Blake, Conor Jackson, Chris Davis, Casey Kotchman, Ryota Igarashi, and Jason Isringhausen are among those who have returned to the big leagues after stints in the minors or on the DL.
• Thanks for playing; better luck next time!  The Braves have already seen enough of Mike Minor, sending him back down to the minor leagues.  After all, that is where he belongs, doesn’t he?  Brandon Allen is the odd man out in the struggle for 1B/OF playing time in Arizona.
• Closer roulette - Most of this week’s exciting closer news comes to us courtesy of the Great Midwest.  In Minnesota Joe Nathan went to manager Ron Gardenhire and didn’t have too much trouble convincing him that Matt Capps is better suited for the closer’s role, at least for the time being.  In St. Louis Ryan Franklin blew his fourth save in five tries this season, which convinced even Tony La Russa to give someone else a chance.  Problem is, at least from the perspective of fantasy baseball team owners, that La Russa has yet to announce a replacement.  Likely candidates include Mitchell Boggs and Jason Motte.  Less likely, but still possible candidates include Miguel Batista (really?!?), Eduardo Sanchez (see above), and yes, even Ryan Franklin.  Matt Lindstrom and Drew Storen picked up stray saves for Colorado and Washington, respectively, but chances are that Huston Street and Sean Burnett don’t have anything to worry about, at least not yet.  No new news to report with the White Sox, Blue Jays, and Rays’ closer situations.
• Role play - Jed Lowrie seems on the verge of taking over the Red Sox’ starting shortstop assignment for good (in both senses of the phrase) from Marco Scutaro.  In a more questionable decision manager Terry Francona has dropped the offensively-challenged Carl Crawford from first to seventh in the batting order and promoted J.D. Drew to the lead-off spot.  Over/under on the number of games that arrangement will last:  2.5.  Julio Borbon got a reprieve of sorts thanks to Josh Hamilton’s injury; David Murphy has taken over Hamilton’s spot instead of Borbon’s.  Ryan Roberts is making the most of Melvin Mora’s absence in Arizona, while Russell Branyan is apparently hitting well enough (or at least often enough) for manager Kirk Gibson to keep scrawling Branyan’s name on the lineup card.  Drew Butera is the main beneficiary of Joe Mauer’s absence, but no, that doesn’t make him worth owning, even in deep AL-only leagues.

Strategy corner

• It’s never too early to be thinking about trades that can help improve your roster.  No, you don’t want to trade Carl Crawford for Darwin Barney, but if someone proposes a trade that seems reasonable to you on the surface, how do you evaluate it?  It’s easier if it’s a trade involving the same number of players from each team and/or it’s a swap involving players at the same position.  However, what if it’s not - how do you analyze the deal then?  The key is not to evaluate the proposed trade as Roy Halladay for Albert Pujols in a vacuum.  Who would take Roy Halladay’s spot in your starting lineup, and how much of a drop-off would that represent?  Who would Albert Pujols replace in your starting lineup, and how much of an upgrade would that represent?  If Albert Pujols sends Adam LaRoche to the bench, but you wind up having to replace Halladay with Joe Saunders, you may want to decline that offer, even though it’s understandably difficult to say no to someone who offers you Albert Pujols.  Caveat emptor!
• If you’re someone who likes to stream pitchers and/or pick up pitchers when they have two starts in the upcoming week, don’t waste too much time evaluating the relative merits of the available pitchers - chances are that the differences aren’t that great.  The item you want to focus on instead is the upcoming matchups for the pitchers involved.  If Waiver Wire Pitcher A faces the Yankees and the Rangers in the week ahead, while Waiver Wire Pitcher B faces the Royals and the Mariners, the choice is clear.  If it’s not that one-sided comparison, throw darts at the wall, consult a psychic, or have your newborn pick one out - you’re merely guessing at that point and hoping for the best.
• When deciding between two available players on the waiver wire, position eligibility is a factor that’s often overlooked.  Sure, Orlando Hudson may be a more desirable pickup than Jose Lopez, but when you factor in the fact that Lopez is eligible at multiple positions, the comparison isn’t so clear.  However, even if Lopez is eligible at multiple positions, if you’ve already got three other players on your active roster who play Lopez’ “second position”, you’re really not gaining anything if you pick him based on his eligibility at multiple position.  If that’s the case, trust your gut and go with the “better” player.

Wrapping up

• 2011 marks the second season that I’m writing a weekly entry for Fantasy Windup, Steve Gardner’s fantasy baseball blog on USAToday.com.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week.  My entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like me to cover in future posts, please send in a note with your suggestion(s)!

• Baseball season ends in September, not in April.  If you’re not already a subscriber to the Sherpa’s In-season Updates, you owe it to yourself to sign up today!  Use this state-of-the-art tool to guide your roster moves, set your lineup, and help you evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  We currently have 750 players in the database and will be adding more as the season progresses.  The remainder-of-season forecasts are updated daily for every player and reflect just about any move an MLB team can make (minor league call-ups, DL moves, batting order changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, suspensions, and other roster moves).  You can even customize these forecasts to reflect your league’s scoring categories!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

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Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

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Hi everyone!  My last two blog entries featured my team hitting and team pitching rankings heading into the 2011 season based on off-season transactions to date.  I put these rankings together to project the standings by division.  Here’s what the Sherpa’s crystal ball is telling me on a late January afternoon:

AL East

1. Boston
2. New York
3. Toronto
4. Tampa Bay
5. Baltimore

AL Central

1. Chicago White Sox
2. Minnesota
3. Detroit
4. Kansas City
5. Cleveland

AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Oakland
3. Texas
4. Seattle

NL East

1. Philadelphia
2. Florida
3. Atlanta
4. New York Mets
5. Washington

NL Central

1. Cincinnati
2. Milwaukee
3. St. Louis
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh
6. Houston

NL West

1. San Francisco
2. Arizona
3. Colorado
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. San Diego

A couple of quick comments/observations:

• I won’t project games won until after I’ve completed my player projections (which will allow me to project the number of runs each team will score and allow).  These projected standings may change slightly when the projections are complete.
•  4 teams appear to be the class of baseball heading into the 2011 season, at least based on my subjective team hitting and team pitching rankings:
  1. Boston
  2. Philadelphia
  3. Cincinnati
  4. Chicago White Sox

Not coincidentally, these are the only four teams I’d place in the top 10 for both team hitting and team pitching.

How do these projected standings compare to yours?  I welcome any and all comments/feedback - I certainly don’t have a monopoly on truth (nor do I pretend to), so let me know what you think!
Have a great week!
The Sherpa

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Hi everyone!  As part of my process for developing player projections I rank the 30 teams by team hitting and team pitching.

Here are the team pitching ranks:

1. Philadelphia
2. San Francisco
3. Cincinnati
4. Boston
5. Minnesota
6. Chicago White Sox
7. Atlanta
8. Milwaukee
9. Los Angeles Angels
10. Los Angeles Dodgers
11. St. Louis
12. Oakland
13. Colorado
14. Detroit
15. Chicago Cubs
16. Florida
17. Tampa Bay
18. Toronto
19. New York Yankees
20. Houston
21. Seattle
22. New York Mets
23. San Diego
24. Arizona
25. Baltimore
26. Washington
27. Texas
28. Cleveland
29. Kansas City
30. Pittsburgh

See any team’s ranking that you think is way off?  Let me know, and we’ll discuss.
Have a great week!
The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

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@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone!  With much of the nation in the grips of a nasty cold-snap, I figured this would be a good time to start cranking up the baseball talk for the 2011 season.  As part of my process for developing player projections I rank the 30 teams by team hitting and team pitching.

Here are the team hitting ranks:

1. Boston
2. New York Yankees
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Cincinnati
5. Philadelphia
6. Texas
7. Toronto
8. Arizona
9. Chicago Cubs
10. Milwaukee
11. Baltimore
12. St. Louis
13. Minnesota
14. Los Angeles Angels
15. Detroit
16. Florida
17. New York Mets
18. Tampa Bay
19. Pittsburgh
20. San Francisco
21. Kansas City
22. Cleveland
23. Oakland
24. Colorado
25. Washington
26. Seattle
27. Atlanta
28. Los Angeles Dodgers
29. San Diego
30. Houston

See any team’s ranking that you think is way off?  Let me know, and we’ll discuss.
Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s fanpage on Facebook

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 25!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 24!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page