The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Hi everyone!

Lots of interesting news this week from Spring Training, especially if you follow the Minnesota Twins (more to come in the next few days on the fantasy impact of Joe Nathan’s injury - my take is a bit different from most others I’ve read so far).  If you’re now counting down the days remaining until Opening Day and looking for your fantasy baseball fix, check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to the blog, along with Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ), Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), and Nick Rousso (Lindy’s).

There will be weekly entries posted on Wednesdays through the end of March to help you prepare for the upcoming season - this week we ranked the Top 25 Starting Pitchers - did your favorite(s) make the cut?  We’ll cover Starting Pitchers 26-50 in next week’s entry.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

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@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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Hi everyone,

Although much of what gets reported as “news” during Spring Training is little more than drivel designed to meet space requirements, there are several nuggets re: specific players that are worth mentioning as you prepare for your fantasy draft or auction:

• Russell Martin (LAD, C) is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with a groin pull - that timetable would keep him out for the first week or two of the season.  Brad Ausmus and A.J. Ellis are likely to split catching duties in Martin’s absence.  Ausmus is a known quantity to fantasy owners - known for his ability to wreak havoc on your team’s batting average without providing any power.  Pass.  Ellis may hit for a passable average (.260-.270), but like Ausmus, he must have stepped out of line when the baseball gods handed out power.  Unless you’re in a very deep NL-only league and count yourself among the truly desperate, you should pass on him too.
• Alex Gordon (KC, 3B) will be out 4-5 weeks with a broken thumb, which means it’s likely he’ll miss the beginning of the season.  Josh Field may gain a few early April ABs, but Gordon’s injury doesn’t have much of an effect on either’s fantasy value:  you still don’t want either one anywhere near your fantasy team.
• Brandon Webb (Ari, SP) is complaining that his surgically repaired shoulder feels “sluggish”.  I’d lump him together with Ben Shields and Rich Harden - tremendously talented guys who will be lucky to start more than 25 games in 2010.  Based on Webb’s reports on his arm and the possibility his shoulder problems may linger, he should just barely be ranked among the Top 50 starting pitchers heading into your draft.  While he’s still likely to be fairly effective when he’s healthy enough to start, don’t make the mistake of assuming he’ll be able to make 33 starts and be effective as he was prior to the shoulder injury.
• Over/under for the number of starts super rookie Stephen Strasburg (Was, SP) will make this season:  23.  No matter how effective Strasburg is during Spring Training, since the Nationals aren’t expecting to contend for the playofs this season, they’ll almost certainly keep him in the minors until at least early June.  This will be done under the guise of “getting the kid some minor league experience before we throw him into the fryer”, but you can rest assured that it will be done in order to delay the start of Strasburg’s arbitration clock by a year.
• Unfortunately, the snakebitten Angel Guzman (ChC, RP) has a shoulder injury that sounds serious.  He’ll either strengthen the damaged area for 1-2 months before trying to throw again, or he’ll opt for what will probably be season-ending surgery.  Many were viewing Guzman as a potential closer for the Cubs if Carlos Marmol hit a rough patch, but that appears highly unlikely now, even if Guzman is able to pitch again in a month or two.  If you’ve already drafted and play in a league that has DL spots, he’s certainly worth stashing just in case the news is better than expected. If your league doesn’t have DL spots, feel free to cut Guzman now and look in another direction for a “closer in waiting” (e.g. - Matt Thornton, Jason Motte, Chris Perez).

Until next time, 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone!

As the Northeast digs out from yet another snowstorm, I figured this would be a good time to share some thoughts on the upcoming fantasy baseball season.  Pitchers and catchers have already reported, position players are starting to report, and the seemingly interminable Johnny Damon saga is finally over, so let’s get right to it.

First off, the Sherpa’s 2010 Preseason Projections are now available You can customize your player rankings to reflect the unique characteristics of YOUR league (# teams, roster requirements by position, scoring categories), and a subscription allows you to store info for up to 3 teams so that you don’t have to re-enter the info from scratch when you want to view the rankings in the future.  And yes, the player projections will be updated continuously throughout Spring Training to ensure that you have the most up-to-date information heading into your draft or auction (e.g. - Felipe Lopez’ revised projections already reflect his signing with the Cardinals). 

There are currently 500 hitters and 300 pitchers in the database; I’ll be adding roughly another 200 pitchers (mostly long reliever types) over the course of the next week.  There should already be enough players in the database for everyone except those who play in extremely deep “only” leagues (e.g. - 16-team “only” leagues with 30-man rosters), but should you find a player you’re particularly interested in who isn’t yet in the database, please let me know, and I’ll move them to the top of the pile.

I’ve already taken part in a number of auctions and drafts for the upcoming season - some mocks, some for real.  Rather than give you a player-by-player “analysis” of my teams and predict victory for myself, I figured it would be more useful to you if I shared some thoughts on overvalued and undervalued players by position based on what I’ve witnessed so far.

Catchers

Overvalued

• Joe Mauer - I’m certainly not questioning his talent, but there definitely are some reasons for concern.  Will his balky back hold up for another entire season?  How will the Twins’ new stadium, Target Field, affect his power totals?  I could make a strong case that Victor Martinez may actually have greater fantasy value this season than Mauer.

Undervalued

• Giovany Soto - His 2009 season was a disaster.  He played in the World Baseball Classic, then showed up for Spring Training out of shape, and it was all downhill from there.  However, even if he doesn’t perform quite as well as he did in 2008, he should still be valued more highly than guys like Kurt Suzuki, Miguel Montero, and Russell Martin. 

• Mike Napoli - Admittedly, there’s a healthy skepticism regarding whether he can sustain a decent batting average, but based on both his major league and minor league track record, I believe he can.  The power and “speed” (noteworthy only because he’s a catcher) are both for real.

First Basemen

Overvalued

• Adrian Gonzalez - He seemingly traded batting average for power following the 2006 season.  Until he can raise his batting average from the .280 range to the .290-.300 range, he shouldn’t be ranked among the Top 10 at his position.

• Pablo Sandoval - He’s the anti-Gonzalez: his batting average is to die for, but until he develops 30-35 home run power, he doesn’t belong in the top 10 first basemen either.  At the risk of stating the obvious, his value is far greater as a third baseman than as a first baseman.

• Justin Morneau - He’s not the elite power hitter you might think he is (certainly not when compared to the first basemen ranked ahead of him), and his batting average is too variable to count on.  If you subscribe to the “every other year” theory (which I don’t), this should be an “up” year for Morneau, but I’m not buying it. 

Undervalued

• Kendry Morales - Given a regular spot in the lineup for the first time in 2009, Morales showed that he’s a legitimate .300 hitter with 30+ home run power.  Fellow up-and-comer Joey Votto has comparable projections (except for a few more steals), but Morales is typically available several rounds later in drafts and for less money in auctions than Votto.

• Derrek Lee - A classic case of an overlooked/underappreciated veteran - every season fantasy owners think he’ll fall off the cliff, and one of these years they’ll be right, but it won’t be this season.  Spend your early-round draft picks and big auction dollars on players at other positions; Lee is a good bet for .290-.300 and 30 HR in the likely event that he stays healthy.

Second Basemen

Overvalued

• Ian Stewart - Many fantasy analysts are predicting great things for Stewart now that he has an everyday job as the Rockies’ third basemen (with dual eligibility at second base), but he’s too big a batting average risk to be a key component of a championship fantasy team.

• Rickie Weeks - He’s never topped 130 games in a season despite being touted as a potential star for the last five years.  He has more speed than Stewart, but less power, and like Stewart, he’s also a big batting average risk. 

Undervalued

• Dustin Pedroia - He’s a solid, if not spectacular, contributor in all five of the standard roto hitting categories, but he’s valued considerably lower than Ian Kinsler.  That shouldn’t be - he doesn’t have the power or speed of Kinsler, but his higher batting average offsets those shortcomings.

Shortstops

Overvalued

• Stephen Drew - Sure, one of these years Stephen Drew’s fantasy production will catch up to his hype, and one of these years Lucy will finally let Charlie Brown kick that football.

Undervalued

• Derek Jeter - Like Dustin Pedroia, he’s a solid contributor in all five of the standard roto hitting categories, and like Pedroia, fantasy owners don’t seem to value that properly.  Let others chase after Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins - Jeter will provide greater fantasy value with a significantly lower bid/later pick.  As is the case with Derrek Lee, Jeter’s skills will erode in the coming years, but the drop-off won’t be significant during the 2010 season.

Third Basemen

Overvalued

• Ryan Zimmerman - I’m not sold on either the power spike or the batting average spike from last season.  With Nyjer Morgan at the top of the Nats’ lineup he may have more RBI opportunities than he did in 2009, but if Adam Dunn’s batting average reverts to historical levels, opposing pitchers will be fools if they don’t pitch around Zimmerman with runners on base.

Undervalued

• Gordon Beckham - Unless he improves even more than I think he will, he won’t be an elite option at third base.  However, he should quickly gain eligibility at second base in most fantasy leagues, and he’ll rank as a Top 5 option at his new position.

Outfielders

Overvalued

• Grady Sizemore - Please wake me up when his batting average catches up to the rest of his game.  Until that happens, he’ll be a perrenial fantasy disappointment.  Slightly more valuable if your fantasy league uses on-base percentage instead of batting average.

• Justin Upton - I know he’s being touted everywhere as a future MVP, but I need to see him maintain the  batting average and power improvement for another season before I’ll place him among the fantasy elite.

• Curtis Granderson - Hope is not a plan.  Sure, he’ll most likely be hitting leadoff for a much stronger offense in New York than he was with in Detroit.  But that alone won’t bring about the batting average rebound against lefties that would be required to justify his current lofty ranking.  A potential move to left field and the Yankees’ recent signings of Randy Winn and Marcus Thames suggest that Granderson may become part of a platoon if his hitting doesn’t improve quickly.

Undervalued

• Carlos Lee - You can question his attitude, his weight, and the accompanying dramatic loss of speed all you want.  However, the man can still flat out hit, both for average and for power.  Like the unrelated Derrek Lee, he’s a consistent veteran who can be a relatively low-cost pillar of a championship fantasy team.

• Bobby Abreu - See Carlos Lee (sans dramatic loss of speed).  Not as high an average or home run total, but more stolen bases and runs scored.

• Torii Hunter - See Carlos Lee (sans questionable attitude and dramatic loss of speed).  He’ll play more games than last season, which will help his power, runs scored, and stolen base totals, but it’s likely his batting average will be somewhat lower than last year’s .293.  Concerns about his ability to stay healthy are overstated.

Starting Pitchers

Overvalued

• Cliff Lee - Yes, he’s improved tremendously over the last two season, yes, he was outstanding in the 2009 post-sesaon (though Phillie fans probably wish in retrospect that he’d started Game 4 on short rest), and yes, the Phillies seemingly made a dumb trade when they moved him to Seattle.  However, he’s not the elite fantasy pitcher you’d think he is based on his draft position/auction price.  His K/9 rate, while nothing to sneeze at, is nothing special, nor is his WHIP.  The move back to the AL may also lead to a slight increase in his ERA.  Notice that I didn’t even mention anything about his recent foot injury.

• Justin Verlander - He was dominating for much of last season, but like Cliff Lee, his WHIP is too high for him to be considered a true fantasy ace.  I rarely mention a pitcher’s projected win total, because it’s obviously quite arbitrary, but without Placido Polanco, Curtis Granderson and even Marcus Thames, the Tigers will be one of the weakest hitting teams in baseball this season.

• Jon Lester - He’s talented, and he’s a great feel-good story, even if you’re not a member of Red Sox Nation.  However, from a fantasy perspective he’s not even the best starting pitcher on his own team (that would be Josh Beckett).  At the risk of beating a dead horse, his WHIP prevents him from being an elite fantasy pitcher.  Fantasy owners may be tempted to overlook non-counting categories such as AVG and WHIP, but as long as they’re equally weighted with the other scoring categories used in your league, that would be a mistake.

• Chris Carpenter - Unlike the starting pitchers listed above, Carpenter is a true fantasy ace.  When he’s healthy.  Which may or may not happen.  If you draft/bid for Carpenter expecting him to pitch anything close to 200 innings, you’re playing with fire.  If you don’t believe that, check out his stat lines from the 2002, 2007, and 2008 seasons, then get back to me.  Statisticians speak of type I errors (false positives) and type II errors (false negatives).  A basic rule for fantasy baseball is to avoid taking unneccessary risks.  You catch my drift.  You have been warned.

• Ubaldo Jimenez - A key component of his success last season was his ability to limit his walks while maintaining his strikeout rate.  Can he repeat last year’s success?  Given his track record, count me among the doubters.

Undervalued

• Jake Peavy - Sure, he’s now pitching in the American League and in a much more hitter-friendly park than his former home at Petco.  Still, he demonstrated that he’s recovered from last year’s elbow injury during several late-season starts for the White Sox.  Assuming that he’s able to stay healthy enough to pitch 175+ innings, he’s a borderline Top 10 starting pitcher.

• Javier Vazquez - Too much is being made of his disappointing 2004 season with the Yankees, which culminated with his giving up a disastrous first-pitch grand slam home run to Johnny Damon in Game 7 of the ALCS.  Now, three teams and six years later, Vazquez is a much better pitcher.  Even if his ERA is a run higher per game than last year’s 2.87, he’ll be just fine as long as he’s able to maintain his K/9 rate and WHIP close to his recent levels.

• Cole Hamels - Will the real Cole Hamels please stand up?  Is it the Cy Young contending 2008 version or the mediocre 2009 version?  Like several of the pitchers on the Overvalued list, Hamels was done in by a high WHIP last season.  Fortunately for Hamels (and his 2010 fantasy owners), that spike wasn’t due to a higher walk rate; it was due to an unusual batting averae against on balls in play.  Assuming that normalizes this season, the 2010 version of Cole Hamels will be much closer to the 2008 version than the 2009 version.

• Ryan Dempster - He’s certainly not an elite starting pitcher, owing primarily to his WHIP, but he can function as a third, or even second starter on a fantasy pitching staff at a fraction of the cost of many more highly regarded options.  Take note.

• Brandon Webb - Granted, some may think that I’m contradicting my stance on Chris Carpenter when I include Webb on this list.  However, by all accounts, Webb appears to have made a complete recovery, although shoulder injuries are notorious for ruining many pitchers’ careers.  Still, Webb, unlike Carpenter, does not have a history of arm problems, and he’s also four years younger than Carpenter.  If he’s still around in the middle stages of your draft, or you don’t have to blow the bank in your auction to get him, you’ll get a potential ace for the price of a second or third starter.

Relief Pitchers

Overvalued

• Francisco Rodriguez - Even if you overlook the fact that K-Rod pitched for a Mets team that had a horrible season, his own performance was decidely subpar (at least by his standards, if not the Mets’).  A drop in his strikeout rate accompanied by an increase in his walk rate make it easy to understand why his ERA was up significantly last season.  And don’t even get a Mets’ fan started on the two walk-off grand slams he served up last season.  Saves are just as difficult to predict as Wins, but it’s a good bet that K-Rod’s WHIP will continue to be unacceptable (for fantasy owners, if not the Mets).

Undervalued

• Rafael Soriano - As long as Soriano manages to stay healthy for most of the season (which he did last year for the third time in four seasons), he stands to be a Top 10 closer in 2010 for Tampa Bay.  The Rays have a potentially explosive offense, a pitching staff with several promising young starters, and a number of capable setup men (who were previously miscast as closers).  Put that all together, lean back, and smile while you pay much less for Soriano than someone else in your fantasy league pays for Francisco Cordero or Jose Valverde.

So, there you have some initial thoughts for the  2010 season.  Feel free to let me know whether you agree or disagree - I welcome dissent (makes for a much more interesting conversation).  If you have any specific topics you’d like me to cover, please shoot me a note, and I’ll be happy to respond.  I’ll go over some strategy tips (both for drafts and for auctions) and assorted other topics in upcoming posts.

If you’re interested in a broader range of opinions, check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s SportsMoney blog entries on Forbes.com.  I’m one of five people who contributes to Zack’s weekly fantasy baseball column ranking players by position for the upcoming season.  The other “panelists” are Zack, Ron Shandler of Baseball HQ, Scott Pianowski of Yahoo, and Nick Rousso of Lindy’s.

Finally, speaking of Lindy’s, if you pick up a copy of their 2010 fantasy baseball issue, you’ll see me listed among the contributing writers - I contributed (and wrote) the rankings for the shortstops and third basemen.  If any of you happen to know Royals’ shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, please don’t tell him how to find me. 

If your name isn’t Yuniesky Betancourt (or even if it is), I encourage you to read the Sherpa’s blog, become a fan of the Facebook page, follow me on Twitter, and/or link to me on LinkedIn (I’m listed under my alter ego, Scott Swanay).  There’s no excuse for not staying in touch.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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Hi everyone!

Johnny Damon has finally signed - Scott Boras’ long, national nightmare is finally over.  If you’re looking for your fantasy baseball fix, check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to the blog, along with Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ), Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), and Nick Rousso (Lindy’s).

There will be weekly entries posted on Wednesdays through the end of March to help you prepare for the upcoming season - this week we ranked Outfielders 26-50: 

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone! 

Lindy’s Sports 2010 Fantasy Baseball Preview issue is now available on newsstands - I contributed the writeups for the shortstops and third basemen. If anyone happens to know Kansas City Royals’ shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, please don’t tell him where I live.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball SherpaThe Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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Hi everyone!

It’s always a great time to look forward to warmer weather and the start of the 2010 baseball season.  If you’re looking for your fantasy baseball fix, check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to the blog, along with Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ), Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), and Nick Rousso (Lindy’s).

There will be weekly entries posted on Wednesdays through the end of March to help you prepare for the upcoming season - this week we ranked the Top 20 First Basemen: 

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone!

With freezing temps still blanketing much of the country, it seems like a great time to start looking forward to warmer weather and the start of the 2010 baseball season.  If you’re looking for your fantasy baseball fix, check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to the blog, along with Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ), Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), and Nick Rousso (Lindy’s).

There will be weekly entries posted on Wednesdays through the end of March to help you prepare for the upcoming season - this week we ranked the Top 15 Catchers: 

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to let you know that I’ll be participating in a fantasy baseball mock draft tonight at Mock Draft Central.  The draft starts at 8pm Eastern and features 12 industry experts.  The format is a 5×5 mixed league (Hitting Categories:  AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB; Pitching Categories: W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP).  If you want to listen to some great, colorful commentary as the draft unfolds, tune in to Lenny Melnick and Tony Cincotta, who will be describing the draft on Blog Talk Radio.  I have the 10th pick in the first round - guess I won’t be picking Albert Pujols or Hanley Ramirez!

Here’s tonight’s drafting order:

1. Tim McLeod, RotoRob
2. Daniel Dobish, OPEN Sports
3. Chris McDonnell, FantasyBaseball.com
4. Paul Bourdett, RotoExperts
5. Todd Zola, Mastersball
6. Tom Kessenich, Fanball & National Fantasy Baseball Championship
7. Jason Pliml, Mock Draft Central
8. Nick Minnix, KFFL
9. Ray Murphy, Baseball HQ
10. Scott Swanay, Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
11. Paul Greco, Fantasy Pros 911
12. Mike Kuchera, Fantasy Baseball Express

Hope you’re able to tune in or watch! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This is the sixth and final post in a series taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll finish the series by reviewing the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including Cliff Lee’s Indians’ stats only (he ranked 32nd based on 152 IP).  The stats from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included.

1. Zack Greinke (Preseason rank was 16) - KC, SP

• Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 237 K, 3.55 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 206 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.93 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 179 K, 1.82 Sherpa Pts

2. Felix Hernandez (23) - SEA, SP

• Actual stats: 232 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 211 K, 3.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 198 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 174 K, 1.57 Sherpa Pts

3. Roy Halladay (2) - TOR, SP

• Actual stats: 239 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 208 K, 3.09 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 240 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 173 K, 3.31 Sherpa Pts

4. CC Sabathia (1) - NYY, SP

• Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 194 K, 3.17 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 235 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 219 K, 3.92 Sherpa Pts

5. Justin Verlander (34) - DET, SP

• Actual stats: 232.1 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 264 K, 3.06 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 198 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 160 K, 1.29 Sherpa Pts

6. Jon Lester (39) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 203.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 225 K, 2.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 177 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 4.27 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 135 K, 1.47 Sherpa Pts

7. Josh Beckett (8) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 207.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 194 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 194 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.22 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 182 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts

8. Andrew Bailey (186) - OAK, RP

• Actual stats: 81.1 IP, 6 W, 26 SV, 1.88 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 89 K, 2.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 45 IP, 2 W, 0 SV, 6.14 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 49 K, 0.19 Sherpa Pts

9. Mariano Rivera (7) - NYY, RP

• Actual stats: 65.1 IP, 3 W, 44 SV, 1.79 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 71 K, 2.14 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 72 IP, 3 W, 35 SV, 2.38 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 72 K, 2.51 Sherpa Pts

10. Edwin Jackson (232) - DET, SP

• Actual stats: 209 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 156 K, 2.11 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 138 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 5.67 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 99 K, -0.14 Sherpa Pts

As you can see, there were a couple of big surprises on this list, namely Andrew Bailey and Edwin Jackson. It’s also interesting to note that Red Sox RP Jonathan Papelbon was only the 5th-ranked Closer, trailing Bailey, Rivera, Joe Nathan, and even David Aardsma.  Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only four of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

20. John Lackey (3) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 176.1 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 139 K, 1.60 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 223 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.71 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 181 K, 2.85 Sherpa Pts

57. Kevin Slowey (4) - MIN, SP

• Actual stats: 90.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.39 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 75 K, 0.78 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 180 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.15 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 151 K, 2.60 Sherpa Pts

18. Jonathan Papelbon (5) - BOS, RP

• Actual stats: 67 IP, 1 W, 38 SV, 1.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 76 K, 1.69 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 68 IP, 3 W, 38 SV, 2.38 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 82 K, 2.56 Sherpa Pts

23. James Shields (6) - TB, SP

• Actual stats: 219.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.14 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 167 K, 1.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 215 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.14 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 171 K, 2.54 Sherpa Pts

11. Joe Nathan (9) - MIN, RP

• Actual stats: 65 IP, 2 W, 45 SV, 2.22 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 83 K, 2.07 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 69 IP, 3 W, 35 SV, 2.48 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 79 K, 2.42 Sherpa Pts

N/A Justin Duchscherer (10) - OAK, SP

• Actual stats: N/A - out entire season
• Projected stats: 163 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 123 K, 2.26 Sherpa Pts

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to develop our projections for the 2010 season.  We’ll post from time to time during the off-season as warranted by developments.

Enjoy the rest of the playoffs!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

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This is the fifth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including Matt Holliday’s A’s stats only (he ranked 74th based on 346 At-Bats).  The stats from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included.

1. Joe Mauer (Preseason rank was 75) - MIN, C

• Actual stats: 509 AB, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 4 SB, .367 AVG, 90 R, 3.32 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 437 AB, 8 HR, 66 RBI, 4 SB, .309 AVG, 72 R, 1.87 Sherpa Pts

2. Miguel Cabrera (2) - DET, 1B

• Actual stats: 595 AB, 33 HR, 101 RBI, 6 SB, .329 AVG, 95 R, 3.29 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 612 AB, 35 HR, 125 RBI, 3 SB, .310 AVG, 93 R, 3.46 Sherpa Pts

3. Mark Teixeira (7) - NYY, 1B

• Actual stats: 603 AB, 39 HR, 121 RBI, 2 SB, .294 AVG, 102 R, 3.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 557 AB, 32 HR, 113 RBI, 1 SB, .303 AVG, 96 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

4. Derek Jeter (24) - NYY, SS

• Actual stats: 627 AB, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 30 SB, .335 AVG, 107 R, 3.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 680 AB, 12 HR, 81 RBI, 17 SB, .307 AVG, 106 R, 2.78 Sherpa Pts

5. Carl Crawford (17) - TB, OF

• Actual stats: 598 AB, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 60 SB, .306 AVG, 95 R, 3.08 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 600 AB, 12 HR, 78 RBI, 44 SB, .293 AVG, 94 R, 2.88 Sherpa Pts

6. Adam Lind (65) - TOR, OF

• Actual stats: 587 AB, 35 HR, 114 RBI, 1 SB, .305 AVG, 93 R, 3.08 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 494 AB, 18 HR, 84 RBI, 2 SB, .289 AVG, 65 R, 2.01 Sherpa Pts

7. Aaron Hill (81) - TOR, 2B

• Actual stats: 670 AB, 36 HR, 107 RBI, 5 SB, .288 AVG, 102 R, 3.02 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 554 AB, 11 HR, 62 RBI, 5 SB, .287 AVG, 73 R, 1.76 Sherpa Pts

8. Robinson Cano (36) - NYY, 2B

• Actual stats: 628 AB, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB, .322 AVG, 103 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 679 AB, 18 HR, 96 RBI, 4 SB, .296 AVG, 88 R, 2.55 Sherpa Pts

9. Jason Bay (27) - BOS, OF

• Actual stats: 522 AB, 36 HR, 116 RBI, 13 SB, .266 AVG, 102 R, 2.94 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 588 AB, 30 HR, 102 RBI, 8 SB, .274 AVG, 103 R, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

10. Kendry Morales (8) - LAA, 1B

• Actual stats: 559 AB, 34 HR, 107 RBI, 2 SB, .304 AVG, 85 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 404 AB, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 1 SB, .297 AVG, 56 R, 1.71 Sherpa Pts

There were a number of surprises on this list.  I thought Adam Lind and Kendry Morales would be good, but not this good.  I didn’t think Joe Mauer and Aaron Hill could stay healthy long enough to accumulate the necessary At-Bats to be top fantasy producers, but I was mistaken. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only two of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other eight, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

74. Matt Holliday (1) - OAK, OF

• Actual stats: 346 AB, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 12 SB, .286 AVG, 52 R, 1.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 616 AB, 31 HR, 110 RBI, 20 SB, .318 AVG, 117 R, 3.85 Sherpa Pts

83. Josh Hamilton (3) - TEX, OF

• Actual stats: 336 AB, 10 HR, 54 RBI, 8 SB, .268 AVG, 43 R, 1.20 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 601 AB, 33 HR, 117 RBI, 8 SB, .303 AVG, 98 R, 3.34 Sherpa Pts

50. David Ortiz (4) - BOS, DH

• Actual stats: 533 AB, 28 HR, 97 RBI, 0 SB, .238 AVG, 76 R, 1.89 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 533 AB, 36 HR, 120 RBI, 2 SB, .295 AVG, 105 R, 3.21 Sherpa Pts

70. Vladimir Guerrero (5) - LAA, OF

• Actual stats: 377 AB, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 2 SB, .294 AVG, 58 R, 1.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 568 AB, 28 HR, 107 RBI, 6 SB, .315 AVG, 88 R, 3.17 Sherpa Pts

23. Alex Rodriguez (6) - NYY, 3B

• Actual stats: 437 AB, 28 HR, 93 RBI, 14 SB, .284 AVG, 76 R, 2.50 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 443 AB, 33 HR, 98 RBI, 16 SB, .302 AVG, 95 R, 3.14 Sherpa Pts

64. Grady Sizemore (8) - CLE, OF

• Actual stats: 436 AB, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 13 SB, .248 AVG, 73 R, 1.66 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 637 AB, 30 HR, 84 RBI, 33 SB, .275 AVG, 113 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

13. Ichiro Suzuki (9) - SEA, OF

• Actual stats: 628 AB, 11 HR, 46 RBI, 26 SB, .352 AVG, 87 R, 2.80 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 667 AB, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 41 SB, .324 AVG, 103 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

17. Ian Kinsler (10) - TEX, 2B

• Actual stats: 555 AB, 31 HR, 86 RBI, 31 SB, .254 AVG, 99 R, 2.68 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 603 AB, 22 HR, 80 RBI, 27 SB, .297 AVG, 113 R, 3.09 Sherpa Pts 

As you might suspect, the biggest culprits for off-the-mark projections are injuries (i.e.- a lower-than-expected number of ABs) and/or a substandard AVG, which has ripple effects through other categories, such as RBI and R. 

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to start developing our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll conclude this series with a look at the 2009 top 10 Pitchers in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

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