On Saturday, March 24th, I had the privilege of participating in my second Tout Wars mixed league auction (here’s the spreadsheet tracking that auction). Rather than give a player-by-player recap of my auction (which would interest no one besides myself, and is almost a month out-of-date at this point), here are some observations I’d like to share based both on this auction and a number of others I participated in this spring:
After two years of relative pitching dominance, the price of premium pitchers is dropping, especially in mixed league auctions. Not a surprising result - when the supply of pitchers capable of helping your team in a meaningful way is increasing, but the demand is constant, then prices should drop, and that’s exactly what happened. Clayton Kershaw was the only pitcher who went for $30, while Justin Verlander went for $27, and Roy Halladay went for $26.
Surprisingly, the cost of elite hitters isn’t increasing. When the supply of hitters capable of helping your team in a meaningful way is decreasing, but the demand is constant, then prices should increase. However, Albert Pujols was the most expensive hitter, costing $43 - I believe last year he went for just under $50. There were only 6-8 players who cracked the $40 mark. So, if people were spending less than last year on both top hitters and top pitchers, where were they spending their money instead?
Owners spent more of their hitting dollars on potential breakout players. If you purchased Lucas Duda, Cameron Maybin, Brett Lawrie, Elvis Andrus, Eric Hosmer, or Jason Kipnis during an auction this spring, you probably spent more on them than you anticipated. However, there were some exceptions to this observation, including Mat Gamel, Jose Altuve, and Chris Davis. I guess I was just more bullish on the prospects of the players in the latter group than most of my peers.
Owners were still willing to spend big on top closers. If no money manager will ever be fired for buying IBM, the fantasy baseball auction strategy corollary is that no fantasy baseball team owner will be mocked for purchasing Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon.
Owners were also willing to spend more money on potential closers. Many fantasy owners take it as gospel that “Thou shalt not overspend on closers”. Those who purchased Andrew Bailey, Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Matt Thornton, Kyle Farnsworth, and Drew Storen in auctions would wholeheartedly agree. However, that certainly didn’t stop owners from speculating, perhaps even more than was prudent, on closers-in-waiting such as Vinnie Pestano and Addison Reed.
Even in an expert league such as Tout Wars owners are naturally risk-averse, perhaps even exceedingly so. Some players went for less than I thought they would because of injury concerns (e.g. - Kendry Morales, Johan Santana, Alex Rodriguez, and Kevin Youkilis). Some went for less due to the fact they’re still unproven (e.g. - Mat Gamel). Some went for less because they’re “old” (e.g. - Paul Konerko). Some went for less due simply to the fact that they were horrible last season (e.g. - Adam Dunn). I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if, barring injury, every player mentioned in this bullet ends up producing fantasy value far in excess of what their owner paid to acquire them for the 2012 season.
Jump-bidding is a bad use of limited resources. Some owners believe that by increasing the current high bid by more than a dollar or two (affectionately known among fantasy owners as “jump bidding”), they’ll send fellow owners a clear message to “back off”. The only message this tactic sends is that you weren’t paying enough attention in your college economics class. You may have deterred other owners from trumping your bid on Clayton Kershaw early in the auction, but when you end up filling your pitching staff with the likes of Jamie Moyer at the end of an auction, you’re team is in trouble before the season even begins.
Having a planned strategy and a predetermined budget heading into an auction is a good idea, but being flexible and able to adapt your plan on the fly is even better. Saying you’re not going to spend more than $20 on a starting pitcher is understandable, but if you stick to that position even when Roy Halladay is on the block, and the current high bid of $25 is $10 less than what you think the player is worth, unless they’re hiding an injury from the training staff, it’s worth making the adjustments to your roster in order to fit him in under your salary cap.
Buy stats, not players. Set targets by category before the auction starts, and monitor them like a hawk during the auction. Many owners spend massive amounts of their brainpower during an auction tracking how much money each of their opponents has remaining, who has what roster needs remaining, and how will to keep in touch with them even after the auction. I believe it’s far more important to track teams’ cumulative hitting points or starting points. Let someone else obsess over which of the 300+ players that have already been purchased in the auction; you’ve got bigger fish to fry.
All of that aside, I prefer to think of an auction such as Tout Wars as an over-sized math problem rather than a referendum on my “player evaluation skills” - I’ll leave that to the professionals (scouts, that is). How do you get the most points in your league, subject to the constraints of a salary cap, roster requirements by position, and overall roster size? Who is going to make the shrewdest waiver wire pick-ups in the first month or two of the season? Which owners are going to agree to the right trades at just the right time?
Here’s my fantasy baseball video preview of the 2012 Cincinnati Reds’ pitchers - which two Reds’ pitchers should you avoid having on your fantasy team at all costs, and which Reds’ starting pitcher is currently flying under the radar?
Since I’m a social media strategist by day and encourage everyone to make video part of their marketing effort, I’ve decided to take my own advice and finally enter the (late) 20th century.
First up - a fantasy baseball preview of the Arizona Diamondbacks’ hitters. We’ll see how this experiment goes - if it’s well-received (or I just feel the need to stroke my ego five dozen times), we’ll continue with a fantasy baseball preview of each team’s hitters and (separately) pitchers. I was hoping to keep the team hitter previews in the 2-3 minute range, but this first one is “a bit” longer than that. I’ll see what I can do in the future to shorten that time (e.g. - talk faster, write out a script, review the Houston Astros, etc.)
In the meantime, enjoy this first one, and let me know what you think!
Today we have the third installment from guest blogger Jason Trask for a mock (slow) draft he’s participating in with some fellow fantasy enthusiasts from Fantasy Baseball Cafe. Here are Jason’s thoughts on rounds 7-9 of his draft (we’ll cover subsequent rounds in future posts).
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2012 Mock Draft #1: Rounds 7-9
Round 7
We’ve made it through the first turn, where the core of your team is created. I’m of the opinion that if any of your top 6 picks make you nervous, here is where you can try to get security before attacking roster needs. Strengthening your CI, MI or OF can give that security without having to scramble and look for a marginal replacement later.
Best Pick
Howie Kendrick 7.02 Eligible all over the place, and just signed a new contract extension.Think about this, how would you like to spend the next 4 years hitting in front of Albert Pujols? Howie should finally be able to have that “breakout” that we’ve been anticipating for about 3 years.
Worst Pick
Jonathan Papelbon 7.14 With only one SP taken, and no 3B taken as of yet at this slot, I was mildly surprised to see Papelbon go here. Wainwright was taken with the next pick at 8.01, but considering what was still on the board, it was risky.
My Pick
Matt Latos 7.13 I wanted to get a 2nd SP to complement CC here and Latos will go to the NL Central where some lineups are proverbial K factories. 200 K should come easy for the 24 year old, and with a young, surging Reds team 18+ W is reachable.
Notable Picks
Jon Lester 7.03, Drew Stubbs 7.04, CJ Wilson 7.05, Joe Mauer 7.07
Round 8
We’re solidly through the first few tiers of SP at this point, and you can certainly see with the picks what strategy is being used. This round is a perfect example of why a January Mock can be “mocked” for what happens going forward.
Best Pick
Adam Wainwright 8.01 I think this is a great pick. It was such a good pick, that I would have taken him next. Those who drafted Wainwright at this time last year had to get him 4 or 5 rounds earlier. He’s proven that he can do it, and the recipients of Tommy John surgery are proving to be less risky than even 5 years ago.
Worst Pick
Matt Moore 8.09 He’s thrown less than 20 total innings in the big leagues. The Tampa Bay Rays have developed a tremendous track record of young pitching arms, but this seems a bit silly. I will repeat the first sentence. He’s thrown less than 20 total innings in the big leagues.
My Pick
Dee Gordon 8.02 Skinny Swag* will have the SS job for LA. I also fully expect him to hit in front of Matt Kemp in that lineup, if not leadoff. The AVG might not be better than .260 but his potential for elite SB could make him the MI version of Michael Bourn.
Newest Yankee Michael Pineda 8.03, Brandon Beachy 8.06, Ubaldo Jimenez 8.10, Jordan Zimmerman 8.14
Round 9
This is where I started to worry a little about “insuring” my roster with solid picks in positions of need. Still had no Catcher, and only 2 OF and SP up to this point. With 24 picks between Round 8 and Round 9, I felt like I couldn’t take many risks with my picks.
Best Pick
Andre Ethier 9.06 I drafted him early last year, kept the faith for a few months and then just mostly felt bad for him after the All Star Break. His AVG was the same, but his SLG dropped almost 80 points from the norm. Knee surgery in September confirmed a lot of suspicions and as a result he’s a great buy low candidate for 2012.
Worst Pick
Chris Young 9.10 I’m fully aware of the value of 20 HR/20 SB guys, but I’m also very aware that his highest AVG in the last 5 years is .257. It doesn’t help that he’s struck out over 130 times in each of those seasons. If you’re going to be at the top of a ML lineup, you need to get on base more than 32% of the time.
My Pick
Ricky Romero 9.13 I had a choice to take a SP/C/OF here and went with the best of what was on the board. He’s 27, and has had his ERA go down and IP and K’s go up. Here’s a great stat from the 2012 season. In 225 IP, he posted an ERA of under 3.00 while giving up 26 HR. He’s learned how to miss bats in the AL East and will be a solid #3 SP.
*The Houston Astros are now the only team remaining with not only no hitters taken, but no pitchers taken either. This should be fairly common in most draft this year. Sorry Astros fans.
If you’re interested on seeing the entire draft, check out the Google doc
