The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Hi everyone,

With (extended) Week 1 of the baseball season in the books it’s time for a look back at the highlights and not-so-highlights from teams’  first 8-9 games.  Manny Ramirez decided to retire rather than face the music created by another positive drug test.  Willie Bloomquist and Sam Fuld were busy stealing bases.  Alex Gordon and Ryan Howard were off to fast starts; Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer were not.  Texas, led by Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler’s home run bashing, couldn’t lose, while Boston and Tampa couldn’t win.  What’s noise, and what do you need to be concerned about, even though we’re just 6% into the season?

Thoughts from Week 1

• Hurt locker -  Stephen Strasburg and Johan Santana are still on the shelf from injuries sustained last season.  Adam Wainwright, Domonic Brown, Brad Lidge,  and Chase Utley were all bitten by the injury bug in Spring Training.  At least Matt Holliday’s and Adam Dunn’s appendixes (appendices?) waited until after Opening Day to cause distress.  Other notable names already on the DL:  Evan Longoria, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, J.J. Hardy, and Corey Hart.  Fantasy baseball is becoming more and more like fantasy football’s war of attrition every season.

• Welcome to The Show! -Those making their major league debuts during the season’s first week included Brandon Belt, Zach Britton, Brad Emaus, Marco Estrada, and Casey Coleman.  There will be many more following in their footsteps - there should be a number of potential “impact players” (especially in the American League) making their debuts after the “Super 2″ deadline has passed.

• Welcome back! - Joe Nathan is the biggest name (among those who missed all or most of last season) who returned during Week 1.  Others included Chris “The Pitcher” Young, Erik Bedard, and yes, even Bartolo Colon.

• Thanks for playing:  better luck next time life! - The final episode of the “Manny Being Manny” show came and went suddenly - no word on whether the offending substance was another fertility drug.  In addition to leaving his teammates in the lurch Manny likely dashed any chances he had of being elected to the Hall of Fame on the first or any subsequent ballot.

• Closer roulette - It didn’t take long for Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia to decide he’d seen enough of the Fernando Rodney Horror Show and replace his struggling closer with Jordan Walden.  Fantasy owners who scooped Walden off the waiver wire last week obviously hope this is a permanent change, but don’t count on it.  Ryan Franklin has already blown 3 saves for St. Louis, but Tony La Russa has done nothing to suggest he’s going to make a change, other than speculate that Miguel Batista would probably be a better candidate to close than either Jason Motte or Mitchell Boggs.  Houston’s Brandon Lyon is also off to a shaky start, but Wilton Lopez is ailing, and Mark Melancon seems like an afterthought at this point (although that could change quickly).  In Washington Sean Burnett has postponed the start of the Drew Storen Closing Era for at least a few weeks.  White Sox’ manager Ozzie Guillen has announced that Matt Thornton will have to share save opportunities with Chris Sale, Sergio Santos, Jesse Crain, and the clubhouse attendants.  Kyle Farnsworth seems to have earned Rays’ manager Joe Maddon’s trust, at least until Jake McGee, Joel Peralta, or the currently-injured J.P. Howell wrest it away from him.  Oakland’s Brian Fuentes, Toronto’s Jon Rauch, and Philadelphia’s Jose Contreras have all stepped into the closer’s role for their respective teams due to injuries.

• Role play - Tampa Bay’s Sam Fuld, Matt Joyce, Sean Rodriguez, and Dan Johnson all stand to benefit from Manny Ramirez’ departure.  Johnson’s already reclaimed his uniform #24 that he gave up when Manny was signed.  Allen Craig filled in nicely for Matt Holliday while the latter was out losing weight by having his appendix removed.  Luke Hughes should get the majority of starts at second for the Twins while Nishioka is out.  It’s only a matter of time before David Murphy supplants Julio Borbon in the Rangers’ lineup.  Jorge Cantu is now in a semi-platoon with Brad Hawpe at first base for the Padres, and Mark Teahen is filling in at DH for the White Sox while Adam Dunn recovers from having his appendix removed (didn’t realize that was contagious).

Strategy Corner

• It’s never too early to start assessing your roster’s strengths and weaknesses in preparation for making potential trade offers.  The sooner you act, the more time you’ll have to make up ground in the standings.  Of course the caveat is not to overreact to abnormally good/bad starts (e.g. - don’t go trading away Albert Pujols for Sam Fuld, or even Alex Gordon).

• Unless you’re playing in an “only” league, it makes no sense whatsoever to horde your Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) money.  If you’re in a mixed league, unless you’re playing in a league with weekly scoring periods, it becomes disproportionately harder to make up ground in the non-counting categories (e.g. - AVG, ERA, WHIP) as the season goes on.  Which is just an unnecessarily complicated way of saying a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.  Or something like that.  Plan your FAAB spending accordingly.

• One of the trickiest decisions a fantasy team owner has to make is how to allocate their bench spots.  Should they be split evenly between hitters and pitchers?  Should the manager just aim to fill these spots with the proverbial “best available player”?  Should they try to cover all the positions with their benchwarmers?  Another idea, although perhaps not as common as those previously listed, is to allocate most of the bench spots to starting pitchers.  Not only does this strategy make it easier to cover injuries (which is particularly important in an “only” league), but it also allows you to take advantage of favorable pitching matchups and pitchers with two starts in a given period.  Unless you’re subject to an innings pitched cap, you should absolutely take advantage of the opportunity such a strategy provides.

Wrapping Up

• Once again I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USAToday.com’s fantasy baseball blog, edited by Steve Gardner.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week.  The entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like me to cover in future entries, send us a note with your suggestion!

•  If you’re not already a subscriber to the Sherpa’s In-season Updates, you owe it to yourself to sign up today!  Use this state-of-the-art tool to guide your roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  We currently have over 700 players in the database and will be adding more as the season progresses.  The remainder-of-season forecasts are updated daily for every player and reflect just about any move an MLB team can make (minor league call-ups, DL moves, batting order changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves).  Sign up today and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

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I had the privilege of participating in my first Tout Wars auction this past weekend as one of the 15 participants in the mixed league.  Sitting in that room felt a bit like being invited to sit at the big kids’ table for the first time, and the excitement I felt was comparable to how I feel as the Christmas season approaches.

It’s a tradition of sorts for Tout Wars’ participants to post a blog entry in the days following their auction in which they share their thoughts about their team.  Since it’s my first year in the league, I’m going to start my own tradition and refrain from doing that.  Such a recap would be as painful for me to write as it would be for anyone else to read.  If you’re interested in seeing the gory details of the 15 rosters, they’re available in this Google doc.  If you’re suffering from Tout recap withdrawal and want to read others’ thoughts, they’re available via the Tout Wars’ website.

Instead, I’ll offer a few general thoughts on the proceedings.  First off, as you would expect in a league like Tout, everyone in the room is extremely well-prepared.  You’re not going to sneak any players past people (unless you’re defending champion Andy Behrens, who purchased Scott Baker, Anibal Sanchez, Marlon Byrd, Michael Brantley, and Jim Thome for $1 apiece).  To add to the challenge your player projections are highly unlikely to be significantly more accurate than those of anyone else in the room.

So, given that, how can you still make yourself stand out from the rest of the field in a Tout Wars auction (he asks rhetorically)?  There are actually a number of reasons why your roster and results may vary greatly from those of your competitors:

1. Roster composition - do you focus on players’ overall fantasy value?  Do you buy stats with little or no attention paid to the name that’s attached to them?   Do you take a “stars and scrubs” approach (which generally works better in a mixed league than in “only” leagues), or do you try to diversify your risk by spreading money more evenly across the best available second and third-tier players at each position?  Does position scarcity factor into your overall player rankings and associated fantasy values?
2. Auction budget - do you follow the more-or-less standard split of $180 for hitters/$80 for pitchers, or do you plan to deviate from these norms?  Do you use your league’s history as a guideline for prices, or do you rely solely on your own judgement?  Do you include slots for $1 players in your budget, or do you save a bit of money earlier in the auction so that you have $2 per roster spot to spend at the end and can trump the $1 bids?
3. Philosophy re: spending money - do you want to spend your money earlier in the auction on the marquee players, or do you want to exercise restraint so that you have more of a say in determining which players you purchase for your roster later in the auction?  If your well-thought-out plan goes awry due to unforeseen circumstances, are you flexible enough to move to Plan B (or Plan H) on the fly, or do you stick with your original plan despite the bumps in the road?
4. Auction style - how predictable are you during the auction?  Do you follow a consistent pattern in your bidding (e.g. - always raising the current high bid by $1), or do you vary your bidding style from player-to-player or stage-to-stage during the auction?
5. Nomination philosophy - do you nominate only the players you want, only the players you don’t want, or a mixture of the two?  If you sense that one of your opponents is running low on funds and needs to buy a player at a specific position, do you nominate someone at that position in hopes they’ll overspend?  If the previous nomination generated a bidding war over a specific player, do you follow by nominating a player at the same position as a consolation prize for the person who ended up with the short end of the stick in the bidding for the previous player?
6. Monitoring player news - almost everyone in the room has a laptop - do you check the player news and transactions during the auction hoping to gain an edge on your opponents (or at least stay even with those who also have laptops), or do you view that as an unnecessary distraction?

So, as you can see, even in a league as competitive as the Tout Wars leagues, there are plenty of ways you can still distinguish yourself (for better or for worse) from the competition.  Don’t kid yourself - many of the participants are friends, but while the auction is on, we all want to put together the best fantasy squad possible.  One competitor, J.P. Kastner, summed it up beautifully: “I wish everyone else in the room could finish tied for second!”It’s said that you can’t win a fantasy baseball league during your auction, but you can certainly lose it make things more challenging for yourself once the actual season begins if you have a less-than-stellar auction.  Of course, there’s some good fortune involved - I doubt any of our rosters could withstand the loss of a star player or two for the season and still have a good shot at capturing the championship.Now comes the fun part.  Owners will spend time assessing the strengths and weaknesses of each roster, including their own.  Once you determine your roster’s weaknesses you have several choices:

• Stand pat and hope you were overly pessimistic in assessing your roster (not likely).
• Propose trades to other owners whose strengths match up nicely with your weaknesses, and vice versa (difficult to do in this league - no one wants to get “taken” publicly).
• Work the free agent pool with the $100 Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) we’re each given.  In a league like this it’s better to shoot first and ask questions later (e.g. - Jose Bautista in 2010).  I’m guessing that once they participate in Tout Wars most owners also start paying more attention to minor league players than they did previously.

I’ve promised myself that I’m going to enjoy my first year in Tout Wars.  Like everyone else, I’d love to win, but I also realize that it’s quite an honor just to be invited to sit with the big kids.  Among the roughly 10 million fantasy baseball players in the US, I’m sure many would happily trade places with me in order to have the opportunity to match wits with the best-know experts in the fantasy baseball industry.I’m sure I’ll make some mistakes along the way, but most importantly, hopefully 2011 is the year that I finally learn to spell Ryan Madsen’s Madson’s name correctly.The SherpaFantasy Baseball SherpaThe Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s BlogThe Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s fanpage on Facebook@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Today’s trade between the Blue Jays and Rangers, in which the Blue Jays sent Mike Napoli to Texas in exchange for Frank Francisco doesn’t make sense to me.  I realize that Napoli should be an upgrade over the Yorvit Torrealba/Matt Treanor combination (at least offensively), and Frank Francisco is a potential closer candidate for the Jays.

However, having Napoli gave the Jays insurance in case either J.P. Arencibia doesn’t work out as an everyday catcher or Adam Lind doesn’t work out as an everyday first baseman.  Having Francisco gave the Rangers another closer candidate in the event that Neftali Feliz’ transition from closer to the rotation is successful.

Now, the Jays are stuck with Jose Molina as a fallback if Arencibia doesn’t work out and no clear fallback at first if Lind doesn’t work out (Edwin Encarnacion?).  Francisco is a nice add to the bullpen, but the Jays already had Jason Frasor and Jon Rauch as closer candidates in the likely event that Octavio Dotel proves to be ineffective in that role.  Texas has one less closer candidate to compete with Alexi Ogando and perhaps Tanner Scheppers.

Perhaps this trade will work out well for both teams, but right now I’m just not seeing it.

The Sherpa

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Hi everyone!  My last two blog entries featured my team hitting and team pitching rankings heading into the 2011 season based on off-season transactions to date.  I put these rankings together to project the standings by division.  Here’s what the Sherpa’s crystal ball is telling me on a late January afternoon:

AL East

1. Boston
2. New York
3. Toronto
4. Tampa Bay
5. Baltimore

AL Central

1. Chicago White Sox
2. Minnesota
3. Detroit
4. Kansas City
5. Cleveland

AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Oakland
3. Texas
4. Seattle

NL East

1. Philadelphia
2. Florida
3. Atlanta
4. New York Mets
5. Washington

NL Central

1. Cincinnati
2. Milwaukee
3. St. Louis
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh
6. Houston

NL West

1. San Francisco
2. Arizona
3. Colorado
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. San Diego

A couple of quick comments/observations:

• I won’t project games won until after I’ve completed my player projections (which will allow me to project the number of runs each team will score and allow).  These projected standings may change slightly when the projections are complete.
•  4 teams appear to be the class of baseball heading into the 2011 season, at least based on my subjective team hitting and team pitching rankings:
  1. Boston
  2. Philadelphia
  3. Cincinnati
  4. Chicago White Sox

Not coincidentally, these are the only four teams I’d place in the top 10 for both team hitting and team pitching.

How do these projected standings compare to yours?  I welcome any and all comments/feedback - I certainly don’t have a monopoly on truth (nor do I pretend to), so let me know what you think!
Have a great week!
The Sherpa

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Hi everyone!  As part of my process for developing player projections I rank the 30 teams by team hitting and team pitching.

Here are the team pitching ranks:

1. Philadelphia
2. San Francisco
3. Cincinnati
4. Boston
5. Minnesota
6. Chicago White Sox
7. Atlanta
8. Milwaukee
9. Los Angeles Angels
10. Los Angeles Dodgers
11. St. Louis
12. Oakland
13. Colorado
14. Detroit
15. Chicago Cubs
16. Florida
17. Tampa Bay
18. Toronto
19. New York Yankees
20. Houston
21. Seattle
22. New York Mets
23. San Diego
24. Arizona
25. Baltimore
26. Washington
27. Texas
28. Cleveland
29. Kansas City
30. Pittsburgh

See any team’s ranking that you think is way off?  Let me know, and we’ll discuss.
Have a great week!
The Sherpa

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Hi everyone!  With much of the nation in the grips of a nasty cold-snap, I figured this would be a good time to start cranking up the baseball talk for the 2011 season.  As part of my process for developing player projections I rank the 30 teams by team hitting and team pitching.

Here are the team hitting ranks:

1. Boston
2. New York Yankees
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Cincinnati
5. Philadelphia
6. Texas
7. Toronto
8. Arizona
9. Chicago Cubs
10. Milwaukee
11. Baltimore
12. St. Louis
13. Minnesota
14. Los Angeles Angels
15. Detroit
16. Florida
17. New York Mets
18. Tampa Bay
19. Pittsburgh
20. San Francisco
21. Kansas City
22. Cleveland
23. Oakland
24. Colorado
25. Washington
26. Seattle
27. Atlanta
28. Los Angeles Dodgers
29. San Diego
30. Houston

See any team’s ranking that you think is way off?  Let me know, and we’ll discuss.
Have a great week!

The Sherpa

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Hi everyone,

Happy New Year!  Hard to believe it’s only another 5 weeks or so until pitchers and catchers report.  When Carl Pavano is the biggest name among the remaining free agent starting pitchers, you know you’re getting close to the start of Spring Training.

I’m happy to announce that I’ve been chosen to participate in the Sirius XM/FSTA (Fantasy Sports Trade Association) fantasy baseball experts’ league for the 2011 season.  The draft for this 13-team league will take place on Mon 1/24 in Las Vegas starting at 8pm EST, and it will be broadcast live on Sirius XM’s fantasy sports channel.  We’ll be drawing for drafting positions sometime this week.

Hope your 2011 is off to a great start!

The Sherpa

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Hi everyone,

All season long I’ve been contributing to Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 26 - hard to believe the 2010 regular season ends this week!  

Each week I’ve highlighted 9 players who were largely unowned at that time and hopefully helped improve your team’s results.  I’ve done my best to offer a good mix of players both by position and by league, and I’ve also sought to avoid discussing players more than once.  Hopefully, we’ll be invited back to participate again in 2011 - either way, it’s been a lot of fun putting the entries together.

Good luck the final week of the season, and enjoy the playoffs!

The Sherpa

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Hi everyone!

Many fantasy baseball leagues are now deep into their playoffs.  Anxious fantasy team owners scour the box scores each day for even the suggestion that one of the players in their lineup might miss an upcoming game.

Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 25 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

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Hi everyone,

I’m contributing weekly to a season-long series on Steve Gardner’s Fantasy Windup blog on USA Today’s website - here’s my entry for Week 25!  

Each week I’m highlighting 9 players who are largely unowned and may be able to help improve your team’s results.  I’ll offer a good mix of players both by position and by league.

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page