The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

With the season reaching the halfway point I figured it would be fun to take a look back to see who have been the most valuable fantasy baseball performers so far.  Justin Verlander and Matt Kemp have been two players grabbing a lot of headlines this season with their play, so it should come as little to no surprise that they rank first and second in the standard 5×5 mixed league format through yesterday’s games.  Here are the lists of the top ten hitters and pitchers through the games of Saturday, July 2nd (Total Sherpa Points based on a max of 5.00, which would be a player’s score if he led the league in all five hitting or pitching categories):

Top 10 Hitters

1. Matt Kemp (3.81) - 293 AB, .331 AVG, 22 HR, 63 RBI, 22 SB, 52 R
2. Adrian Gonzalez (3.42) - 327 AB, .352 AVG, 16 HR, 71 RBI, 1 SB, 56 R
3. Ryan Braun (3.42) - 299 AB, .321 AVG, 16 HR, 60 RBI, 19 SB, 57 R
4. Jose Reyes (3.38) - 344 AB, .352 AVG, 3 HR, 32 RBI, 30 SB, 65 R
5. Jose Bautista (3.24) - 261 AB, .326 AVG, 24 HR, 52 RBI, 5 SB, 61 R
6. Curtis Granderson (3.14) - 294 AB, .276 AVG, 21 HR, 56 RBI, 14 SB, 70 R
7. Miguel Cabrera (2.99) - 280 AB, .332 AVG, 17 HR, 56 RBI, 1 SB, 60 R
8. Prince Fielder (2.86) - 285 AB, .302 AVG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 0 SB, 49 R
9. Paul Konerko (2.84) - 293 AB, .321 AVG, 21 HR, 61 RBI, 1 SB, 39 R
10. Jacoby Ellsbury (2.83) - 323 AB, .300 AVG, 9 HR, 40 RBI, 25 SB, 55 R

Granderson, Konerko, and (to a lesser extent) Ellsbury are the biggest surprises on this list - before the season you would have expected to see some combination of Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki, and David Wright taking up three of the spots in a season-to-date top ten list.  It will be interesting to see how much Jose Reyes’ latest injury affects both his fantasy value and his real-life trade value.

Top 10 Pitchers

1. Justin Verlander (3.93) - 135.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 2.32 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 130 K
2. Jared Weaver (3.42) - 123.1 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 1.97 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 106 K
3. Roy Halladay (3.33) - 127.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.40 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 123 K
4. James Shields (3.27) - 128.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.45 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 127 K
5. Cole Hamels (3.15) - 116.0 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.41 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 110 K
6. Cliff Lee (2.97) - 122.0 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 119 K
7. Clayton Kershaw (2.84) - 116.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 128 K
8. CC Sabathia (2.67) - 129.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.05 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 106 K
9. Dan Haren (2.65) - 116.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 98 K
10. David Price (2.52) - 118.0 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 3.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 116 K

Can’t say that any of the names on the pitchers’ list are a surprise except for James Shields.  Most people thought he would bounce back from a 2010 season that wasn’t as bad as his fantasy stats would indicate, but I don’t think anyone (or at least not anyone I know) predicted he would be a top ten pitcher at this point, much less a top five pitcher.  And fear not, Phillie fans - even without Roy Oswalt, your team still has plenty of pitching left to run away with the NL East and beat any team in either league in a playoff series.

Hope you’re enjoying your 4th of July holiday weekend!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

Week 6-7 notable items:  a team throws a 1-hitter and loses.  Carlos Beltran hits three home runs in a game one day, then comes down with conjunctivitis (aka pink-eye) and misses a game the next day.  Jose Bautista continues to prove that last season was not a fluke, Andrew McCutchen allows Pirates’ manager Clint Hurdle to show who’s in charge, and Bartolo Colon becomes the center of a debate on something (stem cells) unrelated to his weight.  Jorge Posada missed a game with a bruised ego.  Mets’ owner Fred Wilpon trashes three of his team’s best players in a magazine interview, and Edinson Volquez trashes his teammates, earning himself a ticket from Cincinnati to Indianapolis.

Thoughts from Weeks 6-7

• Hurt Locker -Those hitting the DL the last couple of weeks included Grady Sizemore, Marlon Byrd, Vicente Padilla, Aroldis Chapman, John Lackey, Adam Lind, David Wright, Travis Hafner, Shane Victorino, Josh Johnson, Pedro Alvarez, Juan Uribe, Mark Teahen, Alex White, Jesse Litsch, Tyson Ross, Brandon McCarthy, Brian Roberts, Derrek Lee, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Rafael Soriano, Orlando Hudson, Ike Davis, Brandon Beachy, Julio Borbon, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Chris “The Pitcher” Young (out for the season).  Whew, I’m out of breath just from typing that list.
• Welcome to The Show! - Among those making their MLB debuts the last couple of weeks were Alan Dirks, Mike Wilson, Charlie Furbush, Ryan Adams, Ezequiel Carrera, Danny Duke, and Eric Thames.
• Welcome Back! - Franklin Gutierrez, Domonic Brown, Noland Reimold, Vance Worley, Dallas McPherson, Brandon Snyder, Fernando Martinez, Greg Gentry, Carlos Peguero, Justin Turner, Endy Chavez, Manny Burriss, and Doug Davis are among those who have returned to the majors after serving time in the minors.  Chase Utley, Roy Oswalt, Rafael Furcal, Andres Torres, Logan Morrison, Delmon Young, Carlos Ruiz, Zach Greinke, Ty Wigginton, Joey Devine, J.J. Hardy, and Jose Arredondo are among those who have returned from DL stints.
• Thanks for playing - better luck next time! - Among those who have been sent back to the minors within the last two weeks are Jeremy Jeffress, Jarrod Dyson, Armando “Almost Perfect” Galarraga, Juan Francisco, Tyler Colvin, Ramiro Pena, Chris Valaika, Ian Stewart, Ivan DeJesus, Mike Leake.  Scott Olson, Ryan Langerhans, Russell Branyan, and Milton Bradley are all looking for work, courtesy of their former teams.
• Closer roulette - Fernando Salas has wrested the St. Louis closing job away from Eduardo Sanchez, at least for the time being.  Jason Motte and Ryan Franklin are still long-shot candidates to close at some point this season too.  In Los Angeles Vicente Padilla’s absence creates an opportunity for Matt Guerrier, Kenley Jansen, and perhaps even Mike MacDougal (isn’t he a fossil by now?).  Brandon League looks like he’s on the ropes in Seattle, but with Jamey Wright, and possibly Jeff Gray, as alternatives, it looks like League will keep his job (good thing he doesn’t pitch in St. Louis).  In Toronto Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco are both treating the closer’s job like a hot potato, potentially creating an opportunity for Jason Frasor (or even Octavio Dotel) to step in.  Meanwhile in Baltimore Kevin Gregg somehow holds on to the 9th-inning duties even though his WHIP is higher than some closers’ ERA.  Koji Uehara, and possibly even Alberto “(Alleged) Killer” Simon will eventually get a shot at Gregg’s job.
• Role play - With recent injuries to outfielders Jason Heyward and Nate McLouth the Atlanta outfield is a mess.  Expect Eric Hinske, Joe Mather, and Jordan Schafer to split at-bats while the aforementioned duo are out.  Laynce Nix is making a strong case to take the Nationals’ left-field job away from Mike Morse.  Also in our nation’s capitol Wilson Ramos and Roger Bernadina are gaining the upper hand on Ivan Rodriguez and Rick Ankiel, respectively, for playing time.  With both David Wright and Ike Davis out for the Mets Daniel Murphy has slid over to first base, Justin Turner is getting most of the starts at second, and a cast of thousands is rotating through third base.  Sticking with the “Amazins” Ronny Paulino is doing his best to win the starting catching job from Josh Thole.  With Jorge Posada’s recent meltdown in the Bronx you have to wonder if the Yankees are mulling the possibility of bringing up Jesus Montero, especially if the team continues its recent slide.  In Seattle the recent return of Franklin Gutierrez means that Michael Saunders, Mike Wilson, and Carlos Peguero are essentially competing for one outfield spot.  With Magglio Ordonez out in Detroit Brennan Boesch should see regular playing time, but also keep an eye on Don Kelly, Casper Wells, and rookie Andy Dirks.  In Baltimore J.J. Hardy’s return and Ryan Adams’ call-up suggest that Robert Andino will find playing time hard to come by.  Mark Teahen’s absence in Chicago may give Dallas McPherson a few at-bats, but if you think that this two-outcome player is going to morph into the consistent hitter people were expecting him to be five years ago, you’ll be sadly mistaken.

Strategy Corner

• Calling all offers -  Many fantasy team owners looking to make a trade will put out a blanket statement to the league to the effect of “I’m looking to acquire a power-hitter, and I’m willing to trade Koyie Hill or Mitch Maier to get him - make me an offer.”  While the “hit me up” approach can save an owner time and potentially result in multiple offers, generally you’re not going to get the best value in return if you leave it to others to initiate trade talks.  It takes time that many of you understandably feel you don’t have, but reviewing the rosters of fellow league owners for potential trade candidates can actually save you a lot of time (i.e. - you won’t waste time fending off silly trade offers).  Many negotiators always advise students to “let the other side make the first offer”, and that’s sound advice for many things in life, but not necessarily in fantasy baseball.  Making the initial offer to a busy fellow owner may have the advantage of determining the benchmark for any counteroffers.  At the risk of stating the obvious, never succumb to pressure in the form of “You’re always afraid to pull the trigger - no wonder you never improve your team!” - walking away from an offer you’re not happy with is always a sound strategy.

• To waive or not to waive - Every year without fail a number of star players get off to slow starts.  We’re not talking mere slumps here, we’re talking “Are they done?  How could I have spent a high pick on that turkey?” bad.  Examples this year include Carl Crawford and Chris Carpenter (maybe it’s the initials?).  It’s tempting in these situations to “cut the loser” and pick up a player who’s off to a better start (e.g. - Sam Fuld, Dillon Gee).  Yet doingso is almost always the wrong decision.  Unless you truly have a better option, or, as in the case of a struggling pitcher, you suspect he’s hurt, your “best alternative” is hardly ever a better player than the slumping star.  Remember that in another week when the top minor league players start arriving.

• Anticipation - Speaking of impending minor league call-ups, the unofficial “Super Two” deadline is right around the corner.  It’s the first of several dates during the season when a batch of “fresh meat” is likely to hit your league’s waiver wire (unless you’re in a keeper league, in which case these highly-touted prospects may have been scooped up months, if not years ago).  The July 31st trading deadline is another important date, as is late August (the deadline for MLB playoff rosters to be set).  Some factors to consider in figuring out whether to make room on your roster for these potential stars:
  • Is your league a redraft league or a dynasty league?  It obviously makes much more sense to take chances in the latter format.
  • Does your league use rotisserie or head-to-head style scoring?  Even highly-touted rookies almost inevitably struggle early on in their MLB careers (e.g. - Jerry Sands) - those struggles carry a much smaller penalty in a head-to-head format.
  • Do you have bench spots in your league?  If so, great - go ahead and take a chance.  However, if you don’t, be careful of falling into the “anybody’s better than the player I have now” trap, because that’s usually not the case.
  • Do you have to start players the week you pick them up?  If so, and you’re involved in a close race in your league, think long and hard about doing this.  Rookies rarely play every day, so make sure you can tolerate a string of zeros in your team’s box score.
  • Does your league allow daily lineup changes?  If it does, go ahead and take a chance - if you find out on a given day that your rookie isn’t playing, then simply swap him out of your starting lineup (assuming you have a bench).  If not, ask yourself how much competition that player has from other players currently on his team’s roster.  Anticipated June 1 call-ups to keep an eye on next week include Brett Lawrie, Mike Moustakas, and Lonnie Chisenhall - for some reason it appears that most of this year’s rookie impact bats are likely to be in the American League.

Wrapping up

• 2011 marks the second season that I’m writing a weekly entry for Fantasy Windup, Steve Gardner’s fantasy baseball blog on USAToday.com.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week.  My entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like me to cover in future posts, please send in a note with your suggestion(s)!

• Baseball season ends in September, not in May!  If you’re not already a subscriber to the Sherpa’s In-season Updates, you owe it to yourself to sign up today!  Use this state-of-the-art tool to guide your roster moves, set your lineup, and help you evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  We currently have 815 players in the database and will be adding more as the season progresses.  The remainder-of-season forecasts are updated daily for every player and reflect just about any move an MLB team can make (minor league call-ups, DL moves, batting order changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, suspensions, and other roster moves).  You can even customize these forecasts to reflect your league’s scoring categories!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

Week 2 featured plenty of stars hitting the DL, and the usual mid-April statistical anomalies.  When else would you find the Indians and Royals tied for first place, or several of the league-leaders in home runs on the waiver wire?  Dan Haren and Jared Weaver are both on pace to become the first 30-game winners since Denny McClain in the late 1960s.  Zach Britton, Jed Lowrie, and David Murphy are flying off waiver wires.  The Mets’ tragic number is already down to 2, or so it seems.  Last, and certainly not least, Barry Bonds was acquitted on all counts except for a federal obstruction of justice charge - your taxpayer dollars at work!

Thoughts from Week 2

• Hurt locker - Josh Hamilton, Ryan Zimmerman, and Joe Mauer were the biggest names to hit the DL last week, but certainly not the only ones.  Rajai Davis, Rafael Furcal, and Chris “The Pitcher” Young all joined them, as did many others.  Meanwhile, Jason Bay, Kendry Morales, and Brian Matusz all look like they’re going to be out longer than originally expected.
•  Welcome to The Show! - Eduardo Sanchez, a reliever for the Cardinals, made the most dramatic debut last week, striking out 8 of the first 9 major league hitters he faced.  In spite of the fact that Tony La Russa won the 2006 World Series with a rookie closer (Adam Wainwright), The Genius has yet to name Sanchez his new closer (see below middle C).  Also, a belated acknowledgement of Michael Pineda’s great start to his major league career.
• Welcome back! - Corey Patterson, Jeff Francis, Casey Blake, Conor Jackson, Chris Davis, Casey Kotchman, Ryota Igarashi, and Jason Isringhausen are among those who have returned to the big leagues after stints in the minors or on the DL.
• Thanks for playing; better luck next time!  The Braves have already seen enough of Mike Minor, sending him back down to the minor leagues.  After all, that is where he belongs, doesn’t he?  Brandon Allen is the odd man out in the struggle for 1B/OF playing time in Arizona.
• Closer roulette - Most of this week’s exciting closer news comes to us courtesy of the Great Midwest.  In Minnesota Joe Nathan went to manager Ron Gardenhire and didn’t have too much trouble convincing him that Matt Capps is better suited for the closer’s role, at least for the time being.  In St. Louis Ryan Franklin blew his fourth save in five tries this season, which convinced even Tony La Russa to give someone else a chance.  Problem is, at least from the perspective of fantasy baseball team owners, that La Russa has yet to announce a replacement.  Likely candidates include Mitchell Boggs and Jason Motte.  Less likely, but still possible candidates include Miguel Batista (really?!?), Eduardo Sanchez (see above), and yes, even Ryan Franklin.  Matt Lindstrom and Drew Storen picked up stray saves for Colorado and Washington, respectively, but chances are that Huston Street and Sean Burnett don’t have anything to worry about, at least not yet.  No new news to report with the White Sox, Blue Jays, and Rays’ closer situations.
• Role play - Jed Lowrie seems on the verge of taking over the Red Sox’ starting shortstop assignment for good (in both senses of the phrase) from Marco Scutaro.  In a more questionable decision manager Terry Francona has dropped the offensively-challenged Carl Crawford from first to seventh in the batting order and promoted J.D. Drew to the lead-off spot.  Over/under on the number of games that arrangement will last:  2.5.  Julio Borbon got a reprieve of sorts thanks to Josh Hamilton’s injury; David Murphy has taken over Hamilton’s spot instead of Borbon’s.  Ryan Roberts is making the most of Melvin Mora’s absence in Arizona, while Russell Branyan is apparently hitting well enough (or at least often enough) for manager Kirk Gibson to keep scrawling Branyan’s name on the lineup card.  Drew Butera is the main beneficiary of Joe Mauer’s absence, but no, that doesn’t make him worth owning, even in deep AL-only leagues.

Strategy corner

• It’s never too early to be thinking about trades that can help improve your roster.  No, you don’t want to trade Carl Crawford for Darwin Barney, but if someone proposes a trade that seems reasonable to you on the surface, how do you evaluate it?  It’s easier if it’s a trade involving the same number of players from each team and/or it’s a swap involving players at the same position.  However, what if it’s not - how do you analyze the deal then?  The key is not to evaluate the proposed trade as Roy Halladay for Albert Pujols in a vacuum.  Who would take Roy Halladay’s spot in your starting lineup, and how much of a drop-off would that represent?  Who would Albert Pujols replace in your starting lineup, and how much of an upgrade would that represent?  If Albert Pujols sends Adam LaRoche to the bench, but you wind up having to replace Halladay with Joe Saunders, you may want to decline that offer, even though it’s understandably difficult to say no to someone who offers you Albert Pujols.  Caveat emptor!
• If you’re someone who likes to stream pitchers and/or pick up pitchers when they have two starts in the upcoming week, don’t waste too much time evaluating the relative merits of the available pitchers - chances are that the differences aren’t that great.  The item you want to focus on instead is the upcoming matchups for the pitchers involved.  If Waiver Wire Pitcher A faces the Yankees and the Rangers in the week ahead, while Waiver Wire Pitcher B faces the Royals and the Mariners, the choice is clear.  If it’s not that one-sided comparison, throw darts at the wall, consult a psychic, or have your newborn pick one out - you’re merely guessing at that point and hoping for the best.
• When deciding between two available players on the waiver wire, position eligibility is a factor that’s often overlooked.  Sure, Orlando Hudson may be a more desirable pickup than Jose Lopez, but when you factor in the fact that Lopez is eligible at multiple positions, the comparison isn’t so clear.  However, even if Lopez is eligible at multiple positions, if you’ve already got three other players on your active roster who play Lopez’ “second position”, you’re really not gaining anything if you pick him based on his eligibility at multiple position.  If that’s the case, trust your gut and go with the “better” player.

Wrapping up

• 2011 marks the second season that I’m writing a weekly entry for Fantasy Windup, Steve Gardner’s fantasy baseball blog on USAToday.com.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week.  My entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like me to cover in future posts, please send in a note with your suggestion(s)!

• Baseball season ends in September, not in April.  If you’re not already a subscriber to the Sherpa’s In-season Updates, you owe it to yourself to sign up today!  Use this state-of-the-art tool to guide your roster moves, set your lineup, and help you evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  We currently have 750 players in the database and will be adding more as the season progresses.  The remainder-of-season forecasts are updated daily for every player and reflect just about any move an MLB team can make (minor league call-ups, DL moves, batting order changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, suspensions, and other roster moves).  You can even customize these forecasts to reflect your league’s scoring categories!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

With (extended) Week 1 of the baseball season in the books it’s time for a look back at the highlights and not-so-highlights from teams’  first 8-9 games.  Manny Ramirez decided to retire rather than face the music created by another positive drug test.  Willie Bloomquist and Sam Fuld were busy stealing bases.  Alex Gordon and Ryan Howard were off to fast starts; Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer were not.  Texas, led by Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler’s home run bashing, couldn’t lose, while Boston and Tampa couldn’t win.  What’s noise, and what do you need to be concerned about, even though we’re just 6% into the season?

Thoughts from Week 1

• Hurt locker -  Stephen Strasburg and Johan Santana are still on the shelf from injuries sustained last season.  Adam Wainwright, Domonic Brown, Brad Lidge,  and Chase Utley were all bitten by the injury bug in Spring Training.  At least Matt Holliday’s and Adam Dunn’s appendixes (appendices?) waited until after Opening Day to cause distress.  Other notable names already on the DL:  Evan Longoria, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, J.J. Hardy, and Corey Hart.  Fantasy baseball is becoming more and more like fantasy football’s war of attrition every season.

• Welcome to The Show! -Those making their major league debuts during the season’s first week included Brandon Belt, Zach Britton, Brad Emaus, Marco Estrada, and Casey Coleman.  There will be many more following in their footsteps - there should be a number of potential “impact players” (especially in the American League) making their debuts after the “Super 2″ deadline has passed.

• Welcome back! - Joe Nathan is the biggest name (among those who missed all or most of last season) who returned during Week 1.  Others included Chris “The Pitcher” Young, Erik Bedard, and yes, even Bartolo Colon.

• Thanks for playing:  better luck next time life! - The final episode of the “Manny Being Manny” show came and went suddenly - no word on whether the offending substance was another fertility drug.  In addition to leaving his teammates in the lurch Manny likely dashed any chances he had of being elected to the Hall of Fame on the first or any subsequent ballot.

• Closer roulette - It didn’t take long for Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia to decide he’d seen enough of the Fernando Rodney Horror Show and replace his struggling closer with Jordan Walden.  Fantasy owners who scooped Walden off the waiver wire last week obviously hope this is a permanent change, but don’t count on it.  Ryan Franklin has already blown 3 saves for St. Louis, but Tony La Russa has done nothing to suggest he’s going to make a change, other than speculate that Miguel Batista would probably be a better candidate to close than either Jason Motte or Mitchell Boggs.  Houston’s Brandon Lyon is also off to a shaky start, but Wilton Lopez is ailing, and Mark Melancon seems like an afterthought at this point (although that could change quickly).  In Washington Sean Burnett has postponed the start of the Drew Storen Closing Era for at least a few weeks.  White Sox’ manager Ozzie Guillen has announced that Matt Thornton will have to share save opportunities with Chris Sale, Sergio Santos, Jesse Crain, and the clubhouse attendants.  Kyle Farnsworth seems to have earned Rays’ manager Joe Maddon’s trust, at least until Jake McGee, Joel Peralta, or the currently-injured J.P. Howell wrest it away from him.  Oakland’s Brian Fuentes, Toronto’s Jon Rauch, and Philadelphia’s Jose Contreras have all stepped into the closer’s role for their respective teams due to injuries.

• Role play - Tampa Bay’s Sam Fuld, Matt Joyce, Sean Rodriguez, and Dan Johnson all stand to benefit from Manny Ramirez’ departure.  Johnson’s already reclaimed his uniform #24 that he gave up when Manny was signed.  Allen Craig filled in nicely for Matt Holliday while the latter was out losing weight by having his appendix removed.  Luke Hughes should get the majority of starts at second for the Twins while Nishioka is out.  It’s only a matter of time before David Murphy supplants Julio Borbon in the Rangers’ lineup.  Jorge Cantu is now in a semi-platoon with Brad Hawpe at first base for the Padres, and Mark Teahen is filling in at DH for the White Sox while Adam Dunn recovers from having his appendix removed (didn’t realize that was contagious).

Strategy Corner

• It’s never too early to start assessing your roster’s strengths and weaknesses in preparation for making potential trade offers.  The sooner you act, the more time you’ll have to make up ground in the standings.  Of course the caveat is not to overreact to abnormally good/bad starts (e.g. - don’t go trading away Albert Pujols for Sam Fuld, or even Alex Gordon).

• Unless you’re playing in an “only” league, it makes no sense whatsoever to horde your Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) money.  If you’re in a mixed league, unless you’re playing in a league with weekly scoring periods, it becomes disproportionately harder to make up ground in the non-counting categories (e.g. - AVG, ERA, WHIP) as the season goes on.  Which is just an unnecessarily complicated way of saying a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.  Or something like that.  Plan your FAAB spending accordingly.

• One of the trickiest decisions a fantasy team owner has to make is how to allocate their bench spots.  Should they be split evenly between hitters and pitchers?  Should the manager just aim to fill these spots with the proverbial “best available player”?  Should they try to cover all the positions with their benchwarmers?  Another idea, although perhaps not as common as those previously listed, is to allocate most of the bench spots to starting pitchers.  Not only does this strategy make it easier to cover injuries (which is particularly important in an “only” league), but it also allows you to take advantage of favorable pitching matchups and pitchers with two starts in a given period.  Unless you’re subject to an innings pitched cap, you should absolutely take advantage of the opportunity such a strategy provides.

Wrapping Up

• Once again I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USAToday.com’s fantasy baseball blog, edited by Steve Gardner.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week.  The entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like me to cover in future entries, send us a note with your suggestion!

•  If you’re not already a subscriber to the Sherpa’s In-season Updates, you owe it to yourself to sign up today!  Use this state-of-the-art tool to guide your roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  We currently have over 700 players in the database and will be adding more as the season progresses.  The remainder-of-season forecasts are updated daily for every player and reflect just about any move an MLB team can make (minor league call-ups, DL moves, batting order changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves).  Sign up today and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

2 quick reminders before we get to the fantasy baseball news:

1) If you’re also a fantasy football enthusiast, be sure to check out FantasyFootballSherpa.com for player projections and customizable player rankings before your upcoming draft/auction.

2) I’ve started a weekly fantasy football show with my co-host Jana that’s called “4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa”.  The show airs from 9:30-10:30pm on Wednesday nights on Blog Talk Radio.  If you miss a show (we’ve done four already), they’ll be archived on the BTR website, or you can also download them for your future listening pleasure.  We do the standard review of teams/players, but we also try to include a healthy dose of strategy, something we feel is sorely missing from the majority of existing shows.  We hope to do a similar show for fantasy baseball starting in time for the 2011 season!

Okay, on to the baseball.  Highlights from Weeks 19-20:  Cubs manager Lou Piniella unexpectedly called it a career with 6 weeks left in the season; Ryne Sandberg is waiting in the wings.  Chipper Jones’ career may also have come to an end, but certainly not on his terms.  Meanwhile in New York, one Met pitcher was mercilessly booed after his post-game assault on his common-law wife’s father, while another Met pitcher, recently accused of rape on a golf course, was cheered after a pitching performance that gave the Mets’ beleagured bullpen a day off.  Tensions boiled over during the recent Cardinals-Reds series in Cincinnati, resulting in an ugly bench-clearing brawl in which Johnny Cueto attempted to earn his black belt, but earned a seven-game suspension instead.

Thoughts from Week 19-20

• Hurt locker - Where to begin?  Recent new arrivals on the DL include Alex Rodriguez, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury (likely out for the season), Lance Berkman, Carlos Guillen, Eric Patterson, Josh Willingham (out for the season), Jack Wilson (out for the season), Chipper Jones (out for the season), Jeff Nieman, Jeff Francis, Jeff Keppinger, Troy Glaus, and Cristian Guzman.  Consider Pedro Feliz, Will Rhymes, Mitch Moreland, Xavier Nady, Jamey Carroll, Chris Denorfia, Felix Pie, Reid Brignac, Josh Bell, Brian Duensing, Ross Ohlendorf, Josh Wilson, Brendan Ryan, and Ronny Cedeno as potential replacements.  Mets outfielder Jason Bay is probably done for the year with lingering concussion symptoms.  Francisco Rodriguez was placed on the restricted list - he’s done for the season, and Ronny Paulino was suspended 50 games for using PEDs, which effectively ends his season.

• Welcome to The Show! - Jeremy Hellickson and Lorenzo Cain were recently called up to the bigs for the first time.  Unfortunately for Hellickson, he’s already been sent back to the minors, but expect him to be recalled when the Sept 1 March of the Prospects commences.

• Welcome back! - Eric Young Jr, Cameron Maybin, Michael Bowden, Jhoulys Chacin, Micah Hoffpauir, Travis Buck and Pat Misch are all back in the big leagues.  Jose Guillen wasn’t out of work long, as the Giants claimed him from the Royals.  Travis Hafner, Orlando Hudson, Mark Teahen, Kyle Lohse, Homer Bailey, Andrew Bailey, Juan Gutierrez, Ryan Doumit, Carlos Pena, Martin Prado, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and David Eckstein have all returned recently from DL stints. 

• Thanks for playing; better luck next time - Everth Cabrera, Luis Montanez, Jordan Brown, Aaron Cunningham, Juan Francisco, Dayan Viciedo, Fernando Martinez, and Chis Carter were all recently sent down to the minors - expect all of them to be back in the majors Sept 1 or shortly after.  Veterans Brad Hawpe and Jody Gerut were recently released - Hawpe will catch on again soon (some team will be willing to bet he’s not on the Garrett Atkins career path), and Gerut may too if a team is looking for an inexpensive stopgap option in the outfield.

• Closer roulette - With Francisco Rodriguez out for the season the Mets have turned to Hisanori Takahashi as their new closer, at least in the short run.  If you have room on your bench, speculative pick-ups of Bobby Parnell and even Manny Acosta may pay off down the road.  Jonathan Broxton seems to be back on track in Los Angeles, so Hong-Chih Kuo probably won’t get more than an occasional save from here on out.  White Sox closer Bobby Jenks’ back continues to flare up on him occasionally, but with set-up men J.J. Putz and Matt Thornton both hurting too, there’s no apparent successor (Sergio Santos?  Chris Sale?)  The Arizona situation remains a mess, although Sam Demel has pitched better recently, and Juan Gutierrez is back from the DL.  Avoid this bullpen at all costs.  The Washington closer situation has yet to sort itself out.  Drew Storen remains the most logical candidate, but for whatever reason Nats manager Jim Riggleman seems reluctant to state the obvious.  Avoid this bullpen as well.

• Role play  - The San Francisco outfield became more muddled with the recent acquisition of Cody Ross from the Marlins - expect Aaron Rowand to be relegated to a late innings defensive replacement role.  Jose Guillen and Pat Burrell are both more attractive options than Ross.  Aubrey Huff has shifted back to first base, forcing Travis Ishikawa back to the bench.  Mike Fontenot’s recent acquisition may cost both Freddy Sanchez and Pablo Sandoval some at-bats.  Ross’ departure has led to Cameron Maybin’s return in Florida; Maybin should have a firm grasp on centerfield for the duration of the season.  In Texas David Murphy has taken over centerfield from Julio Borbon, and Jorge Cantu continues to lose at-bats to rookie Mitch Moreland.  In Boston Jacoby Ellsbury’s return to the DL means more playing time for Darnell McDonald.  The Red Sox are trying to reacquire former Idiot Johnny Damon, but as of this writing it’s looking like Damon will exercise his no-trade clause to veto the deal.  In Houston Carlos Lee has been getting playing time at first base in place of rookie Brett Wallace, which may lead to more at-bats for reserve outfielders Jason Michael and Jason Bourgeois.  In Oakland Chris Carter’s recent return to the minors means that Daric Barton’s job is safe for now.  In Seattle Josh Wilson replaces Jack Wilson at short, although Matt Tuiasosopo may also get some playing time there.  In New York Jeff Francoeur’s job seems safe for now with Fernando Martinez back in the minors.  In Pittsburgh Ryan Doumit has been seeing more time in rightfield lately, meaning more at-bats for Chris Snyder and fewer for Lastings Milledge.  In Atlanta Martin Prado’s return and Derrek Lee’s acquisition mean fewer at-bats for Brooks Conrad now and for Omar Infante when Troy Glaus returns from the DL.  In Chicago Lee’s departure will mean more at-bats for both Xavier Nady and Micah Hoffpauir.

Strategy Corner

• Trading Places - In a previous post I described how to do a quick analysis of potential point swings by category to help in prioritizing trade and free agent targets for your team.  To summarize - the greater the potential point swing, the greater weight that category should receive in evaluating potential moves for your team.  The same analysis can be performed on other teams’ rosters to determine their areas of greatest need.  This can be useful both for determining whether there’s a potential match for a trade and how likely the other team is to bid on the same free agent you’re interested in.  I always appreciate it when owners proposing a trade to me at least take a stab at convincing me why the trade they’re poposing would improve my team, but it’s also painfully obvious that few owners bother to take this next logical step of actually analyzing their potential trading partner’s needs.

• Fill ‘er up! - Many roto leagues contain a games played (GP) maximum by position and an innings pitched (IP) max.  It neve ceases to amaze (or amuse) me just how many owners fail to take advantage of these maximums (or “maxima”, for those Latin scholars in the audience).  Of course, if your league uses more average-based categories than counting categories, you have to be careful when doing this.  However, in the vast majority of leagues, where the counting categories outnumber the average-based categories, you have almost nothing to fear but fear itself (or laziness).  If you have room on you bench, an extra outfielder, who can usually cover 4-6 starting spots (including Utility), is a good choice.  Just be sure your league doesn’t have a cap on the number of moves you can make or an escalating charge per transaction above a certain threshold!

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like us to address in future newsletters, send us a note with your suggestion!

• If you’re not already a subscriber, you owe it to yourself to sign up today for the Sherpa’s In-season Updates!  Use this revolutionary tool to make roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  Whenever an MLB team makes a move (e.g. - minor league call-ups, DL, batting order position changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves) playing time for all affected players is updated.  We have 990 players in our database, and our Remainder-of-Season forecasts and rankings are updated for every player, every day!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

2 quick public service announcements before we get to the fantasy baseball news:

1) If you’re also a fantasy football enthusiast, be sure to check out FantasyFootballSherp a.com for player projections and customizable player rankings before your upcoming draft/auction.

2) I’ve started a weekly fantasy football show with my co-host Jana that’s called “4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa”.  The show airs from 9:30-10:30pm on Wednesday nights on Blog Talk Radio.  If you miss a show (we’ve done two already), they’ll be archived on the BTR website, or you can also download them for your future listening pleasure.  We do the standard review of teams/players, but we also try to include a healthy dose of strategy, something we feel is sorely missing from the majority of existing shows.  We hope to do a similar show for fantasy baseball starting in time for the 2011 season!

Okay, on to the baseball.  Highlights from Week 18:  In this season of no-hitters, Brandon Morrow’s one-hitter yesterday may actually be this year’s best pitching perfomance.  Meanwhile, Toronto’s hitters keep bashing homers at a prodigious pace.  Alex Rodriguez finally hit his 600th home run (although hardly anyone noticed/cared) but was then injured in yet another freak accident on the field in a season full of them.  Trevor Hoffman re-emerged as the Brewers’ co-closer, although no one expect s this arrangement to last any longer than it takes Hoffman to get to 600 saves.

Thoughts from Week 18

• Hurt locker - Recent new arrivals on the DL include Andrew Bailey, Nyjer Morgan, Todd Martin, John Buck, Carlos Pena, Carlos Santana (out for the season), Jason Bay, and Kevin Youkilis (out for the season).  Consider J.J. Putz, Mike Morse, Jason Kendall, Josh Thole, Luke Scott, Jonathan Lucroy, Lastings Milledge, and Casey Kotchman as potential replacements.  David Freese, who’s been on the DL but had hoped to return, has also been ruled out for the rest of the season.

• Welcome to The Show! - Brett Wallace, Ryan Kalish, Mike Minor, J.P. Arencibia, Peter Bourjos, Chris Carter (A’s version), and Chris Sale have all been called up to the bigs recently for the f irst time.

• Welcome back! - Kila Ka’aihue is back in the majors, hopefully for an extended stay this time.  Carlos Delgado has been signed to a minor league contract by the Red Sox and will presumably be up with Boston as soon as he’s deemed to be “in shape”.  Dan Johnson and Fernando Martinez are among other familiar names recently called back up to the majors. 

• Thanks for playing; better luck next time - Situations can change quickly in baseball.  In Spring Training the Rangers were trying to figure out how they could fit both of their first base prospects, Chris Davis and Justin Smoak, into their lineup at the same time.  Smoak is now with the Mariners (some would argue that still constitutes the minors) and has recently been sent down because he was being outplayed by Casey Kotchman.  Davis has been unproductive (to p ut it kindly) in two separate stints with the Rangers this season, and they recently farmed him out so that the newly-acquired Jorge Cantu could play first every day.  A similar situation exists with Texas’ catchers, but that’s not as interesting, so we’ll leave that alone.  It’s a wonder they’re still in first place.  Jose Guillen and Garret Anderson were both DFA’d this week; Guillen will likely latch on with a contender seeking a bat off the bench, while there’s a good chance the classy Anderson’s career has finally drawn to a close.  Alex Cora is no longer a Met, and Kenshin Kawakami and John Mayberry were sent down to the minors by their respective clubs.

• Closer roulette - With Andrew Bailey on the DL Michael Wuertz should see the majority of the save opportunities forr Oakland.  Bobby Jenks has a bad back, but don’t look for the White Sox to use J.J. Pu tz or Matt Thornton as the closer once Jenks regains his health.  With Juan Gutierrez on the DL Aaron Heilman is back as the D-backs’ closer, but keep an eye on Jordan Norberto if when Heilman struggles.  Matt Capps’ recent trade has caused shuffling in both the Nationals’ and the Twins’ bullpen.  Drew Storen figures to get the bulk of the save chances eventually for the Nats, but he may have to split opportunities with Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, and possibly even Joel Peralta in the short-term.  Jon Rauch has been relegated to the role of (almost) seven-foot set-up man in Minnesota.  With Octavio Dotel now pitching for the Dodgers Joel Hanrahan (once the Nats’ closer) has taken over as the closer in Pittsburgh, while Evan Meek will continue to press his nose against the glass.  As mentioned above, Trevor Hoffman is back (briefly) as the Brewers’ (co-)closer in what can only be desc ribed as a crass publicity stunt shrewd move to take the pressure off rookie John Axford.  Finally, Kerry Wood’s departure from Cleveland has made Chris Perez the default closer for the Tribe.  Which would be a good thing except for the fact the Indians haven’t provided many save opportunities this season, and Perez has yet to look comfortable as a closer in several previous cameos.

• Role play  - Miguel Tejada’s arrival in San Diego has rendered Everth Cabrera useless for fantasy purposes.  Ryan Doumit’s return from the DL means that recent arrival Chris Snyder’s value is down the dain.  After today’s Jim Edmonds-Chris Dickerson trade the Reds’ outfield situation remains a mess, as Edmonds, Drew Stubbs, Chris Heisey, and Jonny Gomes will essentially share two outfield spots.  The Brewers’ outfield situation is a bit clearer, but not by much.& nbsp; Chris Dickerson will take over from Lorenzo Cain as the primary fill-in while Carlos Gomez is on the DL.  It’s anybody’s guess what happens when Gomez returns.  Many saw Lance Berkman’s trade to the Yankees as a boon to his fantasy value, but I strongly disagree.  Yes, he’s hitting in a much more potent lineup, but he’ll give way to Marcus Thames at DH when a southpaw is on the mound - the lost at-bats will more than offset the gain from hitting in a better lineup.  Mike Lowell takes over as the Red Sox’ first baseman until Carlos Delgado is ready to take over as the Red Sox’ first baseman. 

Strategy Corner

• Analyzing fantasy categories/maximizing fantasy points - There are obviously lots of ways to do this for a roto league, but here’s one I like alot.  For each category your league uses, write down both the number of points you could gain and the number you could lose in the next week.  Then add together the absolute value of those numbers to get the potential “swing”.  For example, if you could gain 1 point and lose 3 points in AVG in the next week, write down 4 for that category.  Repeat for each category.  The higher the potential point swing, the higher priority you should give to that category when evaluating potential trades, lineup decisions, and free agent pickups.  Some will ask “Who cares about how many points I could lose?  I just want to gain points!”  So do we all, but the fact remains that many players excel in one or two categories and are mediocre (or worse) in the remaining ones.  Preventing the loss of points in one category will help you just as much as a gain of points in another (i.e. - it’s only the net effect of all the gains and losses we care about).  I choose the one-week evaluation period for two reasons: (1) at this point in the season there’s not much time left, so it makes sense to take a shorter-term view than you would earlier in the season, and (2) injuries and especially minor league call-ups will dilute the player pool in September, making it more difficult (at least in theory) to make up ground then than it is now.  Of course, the later you get in the season, the harder it is to move your results in the average-based categories because of the ever-increasing base of AB or IP.

• ERA/WHIP management - Towards the end of the season many owners, even experienced ones, let their guard down and begin to chase Wins, Saves, and Strikeouts while neglecting the impact doing so will have on their ERA and WHIP.  That’s not to say that streaming a pitcher or two will automatically cause your ERA and WHIP to skyrocket (see comment in previous bullet about i ncreasing IP base), but you still need to be at least somewhat mindful.  Especially in leagues with weekly lineup changes where you fear falling short of a minimum innings requirement, the temptation can be great to pick up any two-start pitcher who’s available or trade for a lower-tier closer.  If you’re going to do that, try to minimize the potential impact on you ERA and WHIP by picking up a middle reliever or two who can help you keep your ERA and WHIP in check.  Ideally, ty to pick up standout set-up men with winning teams, as they may also get the occasional win or hold.  Daniel Bard, J.J. Putz, Matt Thornton, and pretty much anyone in the Padres’ bullpen (Gregerson, Thatcher, Stauffer et. al.) meet those criteria.

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like us to address in future newsletters, send us a note with your suggestion!

• If you’re not already a subscriber, you owe it to yourself to sign up today for the Sherpa’s In-season Updates!  Use this revolutionary tool to make roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  Whenever an MLB team makes a move (e.g. - minor league call-ups, DL, batting order position changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves) playing time for all affected players is updated.  We have 990 players in our database, and our Remainder-of-Season forecasts and rankings are updated for every player, every day!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone!

We’re midway through Week 11, and Pedro Alvarez is the only big-name prospect to be called up so far this week.  It’s strange to have all teams playing 6 games this week (and next); take advantage if your league allows daily lineup transactions to maximize your ABs and IPs before your fellow league owners realize what’s going on (if they haven’t already).

Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 11 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Highlights from Weeks 8-10:  Following Roy Halladay’s perfect game at the end of Week 8, Armando Galarraga pitched an imperfect game in Week 9.  No truth to the rumor that the Hall of Fame called to request Jim Joyce’s arms.  At least Galarraga won’t be called “Andres” any more (we hope).  In the last week and a half baseball said good-bye to The Kid, hello to The Natural, and prepared for the highly-anticipated debuts of three mega-prospects (and no, I’m not talking about Jesus Feliciano).  By the way, if you missed Roy Halladay’s perfect game, plenty of good seats are still available! (unfortunately, this trend seems to be catching on). 

Thoughts from Weeks 8-10

• Hurt locker - Recent new arrivals on the DL include Grady Sizemore (out for the season), Gregg Zaun (ditto), Kendry Morales (out for the season after one of the strangest injuries you’ll ever see), Nelson Cruz (an encore performance), Jacoby Ellsbury (ditto), Jimmy Rollins, Travis Snider, Takashi Saito, Alfredo Simon, Derek Holland, Oliver Perez (???), Aramis Ramirez, Nate McLouth, Jason Bulger, Marcus Thames, and Gabe Kapler, just to name a few.  Consider Austin Kearns, Nick Hundley, Lyle Overbay, Jason Donald, Angel Pagan, Michael Wuertz, Manny Parra, Trevor Cahill, Kevin Kouzmanoff (more on him in a bit), Melky Cabrera, Aaron Heilman, Ryan Sweeney, and Darnell McDonald as potential replacements.

• Son of Slam - Jorge Posada made his 250th home run a memorable one, belting the eighth grand slam of his career on Saturday in the Yankees’ victory over the Astros.  Just for good measure he hit his 251st career home run and ninth grand slam (warning: annoying audio accompanying the video) on Sunday in yet another Yankee victory over the ‘Stros.  At this rate Posada will break Lou Gehrig’s career grand slam mark of 23 in early July.  For dramatic effect neither one of Posada’s slams could touch the Saturday slam belted by Red Sox rookie outfielder Daniel Nava on the first pitch he saw in his major league career (not bad: one pitch, one curtain call)!  It’s only the fourth time in MLB history that a player has hit a grand slam in his first at-bat, and only the second time it’s happened on the first pitch (Kevin Kouzmanoff was the other in 2006).  Oddly, one of the two other players to hit a first career at-bat grand slam was Jeremy Hermida, the player Nava replaced in the Red Sox lineup (Hermida was a Marlin when he accomplished the feat in 2005).

• Welcome, and enjoy The Show! - The floodgates have officially opened:  Buster Posey, Stephen Strasburg, Mike Stanton, Carlos Santana, Jake Arrieta, Jose Tabata, and Brad Lincoln have all made their debuts within the last two weeks, and Neil Walker has also been making a name for himself in his brief time in The Show.  Pedro Alvarez, Brett Wallace, Madison Bumgarner and Tyler Flowers will all likely be up soon too.

• Welcome back! - Max Scherzer, Ryan Raburn, and Danny Worth are all back with the Tigers after brief stays in the minors.  Pat Burrell had a mini-vacation after being released by the Rays, but he’s now a proud member of the San Francisco Giants.  Chris Capuano has completed an amazing journey back to the big leagues, even though it looks like his stay in the Brewers’ rotation was a short one.  Jesse Litsch also pitched Saturday for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery, but the results weren’t pretty.  Chad Tracy is back with the Cubs, and Emilio Bonifacio is once again a Marlin.  Finally, St. Louis, which has a well-earned reputation as the MLB equivalent of The Land of Misfit Toys, opened its arms to Jeff Suppan and Randy Winn, who were recently let go by the Brewers and Yankees, respectively.

• Thanks for playing; better luck next time - Among those sent down to the minors recently were Matt LaPorta and Josh Reddick.  Expect to see all of them back in the bigs before long.  The A’s designated Jake Fox for assignment Sunday after not giving him much of a chance to showcase the power the offensively challenged team desperately needs.  Go figure.  Mark Grudzielanek, Saul Rivera, Mike Lamb, Chris Coste, and Gary Matthews Jr have all likely played their last MLB game for some time, if not forever.

• Closer roulette - Most of the recent closer intrigue has been in the NL.  Huston Street’s return date has been pushed back yet again, so hold on to Manny Corpas.  In Philadelphia Brad Lidge has regained the closer role from Jose Contreras.  In Arizona Chad Qualls continues to struggle, and it seems like it’s just a matter of time before the D-backs make a trade for a new closer or give Aaron Heilman a shot.  John Axford has settled in as the Brew Crew’s closer, and Brandon Lyon is filling in for Matt Lindstrom in Houston while the latter rests a bad back.  Alfredo Simon should return this week for the Orioles, and Brian Fuentes continues to hold off Fernando Rodney in Los Angeles Anaheim.  Finally, things are still a mess on the South Side of Chicago, where manager Ozzie Guillen may be gone before Bobby Jenks finally cedes his spot to J.J. Putz, Matt Thornton, or Sergio Santos.

• Role play  - As noted above Jorge Posada has returned to the Yankees, but Francisco Cervelli will likely continue to see the bulk of the starts at catcher to give Posada time to heal on the job.  Hanley Ramirez is back in the Marlins’ third spot after a brief encore performance as a leadoff hitter.  Carlos Guillen has settled in as the Tigers everyday second baseman, and Manny Parra has been placed back in the Brewers’ rotation. 

Strategy Corner

• Interleague play redux - Interleague play will wreak havoc with fantasy lineups yet again this week.  Five AL teams (Bal, CWS, Oak, TB, and Tex) will be without their designated hitter spot all week as they play six games in NL parks.  Try to find alternatives if your lineup includes Luke Scott, Mark Kotsay, Jack Cust, Hank Blalock, or Vlad Guerrero.  On the other hand Arizona and the NY Mets both play six games in AL parks, which means that Gerado Parra and Chris Carter will likely have more fantasy value than usual.  

• Streaming pitchers - Most fantasy owners who rely on streaming pitchers to maximize their innings pitched make a quick qualitative judgment about both the pitcher’s ability and the strength of the opposing team’s offense.  To take some of the guesswork out of the process, analyze a team’s offensive stats the same way you would analyze the offensive stats of a hitter you are thinking of adding to your roster.  Obviously, the process works in reverse when analyzing teams rather than individual hitters:  instead of looking for teams that hit lots of homers, steal lots of bases, and hit for a high average, you’re looking for the exact opposite.  This process is far from fool-proof, but if applied consistently over a length of time, it can help you identify pitchers with the most favorable upcoming match-ups. 

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like us to address in future newsletters, send us a note with your suggestion!

• If you’re not already a subscriber, you owe it to yourself to sign up today for the Sherpa’s In-season Updates!  Use this revolutionary tool to make roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  Whenever an MLB team makes a move (e.g. - minor league call-ups, DL, batting order position changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves) playing time for all affected players is updated.  We have 990 players in our database, and our Remainder-of-Season forecasts and rankings are updated for every player, every day!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

Week 6 highlights:  It’s nice to see the Reds and Padres in first place.  Of course, we all know that those two teams will win their divisions again when pigs fly, hell freezes over, and Omar Vizquel DHs.  Oh, wait (is Ozzie trying to get fired?) . . . Meanwhile, we saw two additional violations of the unspoken rule that players should never question a team’s medical staff.  Mark DeRosa started to question some things prior to hitting the DL with his wrist injuy, while Pat Neshek was chastised by Twins manager Ron Gardenhire for venting his frustrations on “the Tweeter”.  Rockies manager Jim Tracy and Phillies manager Charlie Manuel engaged in a war of words over the Phillies alleged sign-stealing using binoculars (how quaint - don’t they have an iPhone app for that yet?)

Thoughts from Week 6

• Hurt locker - Brad Lidge, Mark DeRosa, Travis Snider, Justin Duchscherer, John Baker, Scott Harrison, Matt Diaz, and Doug Davis were among the new arrivals on the DL this week.  Andre Ethier’s broken pinkie will probably have a bigger impact on fantasy leagues than all the previous injuries combined, but he hasn’t been placed on the DL yet (stay tuned, and don’t start him this week if you have other options).  Jonathan Niese isn’t on the DL yet, but given his past hamstring problems, the Mets could well be hamstrung again.  Monday night injuries include Asdrubal Cabrera (sounds like he’s probably headed for the DL) and Hanley Ramirez (sounds like he probably isn’t).  Consider Jose Contreras, Andres Torres, Michael Saunders, Kris Medlen, Ronny Paulino, Brennan Boesch, Eric Hinske, Wade LeBlanc, Austin Kearns, Jake Westbrook, Ramon Santiago, and Cristian Guzman as possible replacements.   

• Welcome, and enjoy The Show! - Super Twos Day has yet to arrive (as Potter Stewart once remarked, “I can’t define it, but I’ll know it when I see it”), but the Nationals called up closer-in-waiting Drew Storen on Monday to help bolster a bullpen that consists of Matt Capps, Tyler Clippard (who’s still tied for the MLB lead in wins!), and a bunch of chicken wire.  Barring trades, injuries, or arms falling off, Storen isn’t likely to close this season, but if you have a bench spot you can afford to speculate with or play in a keeper league, he’s worth a shot.  The Yankees called up 1B/DH Juan Miranda, but even though Nick Johnson will reportedly be out until late July/early August, look for the Yankees to rotate position players through the DH spot (especially Jorge Posada) or trade for a veteran rather than use Miranda regularly.

• Welcome back! - Hank Blalock, Jack Cust, and Corey Patterson have all been called up after proving they had nothing left to prove in the minors and showing they deserved another chance in The Show.  Armando Galarraga and Eugenio Velez don’t fit into that category; nevertheless, they’re also back in the bigs.  Even if you’re not a Rockies fan it was still great to see Jeff Francis pitch well Sunday in his first big league appearance since 2008.  I don’t know whether he can be a consistent winner/fantasy contributor again, but I’m willing to take the risk (even in a deep mixed league) to find out. 

• Thanks for playing; better luck next time - Among those sent down to the minors this week were Max Scherzer, Nolan Reimold, Ryan Raburn, Scott Sizemore (yes, the Tigers were on the rampage), and Kila Ka’aihue.  Expect to see all of them back in the bigs before long.  The Rays finally cut the cord with Pat Burrell, whose days as an everyday player appear to be over.  Even if he catches on somewhere else as a DH, he’s unlikely to play enough (or well enough) to warrant consideration in all but the deepest of AL-only leagues.

• Closer roulette - Most of the closer intrigue this week played out in the NL.  Huston Street has suffered a setback, so it’s likely Manny Corpas will be Colorado’s closer for the foreseeable future.  As mentioned above, Washington has called up Drew Storen, but Matt Capps is in no imminent danger of losing his job.  Also mentioned above, Philadelphia has been forced to put Brad Lidge back on the DL, and even though J.C. Romero got the save Sunday night, it appears that Jose Contreras will receive most of the save opportunities until Lidge retuns.  In Arizona Chad Qualls continues to close arteries as well as games, but unless you’re a huge Aaron Heilman fan, there’s no reason to speculate at this point on anyone else in the D-backs’ abysmal bullpen.  No further clarity on the White Sox’ closer situation - Bobby Jenks is still “the closer”, but Matt Thornton also converted a save opportunity this week.  However, if you own either J.J. Putz or Sergio Santos, don’t cut them loose yet - they’re still in the mix.  Still no definite return date for Mike Gonzalez in Baltimore, and the way Alfredo Simon has been pitching (with the notable exception of his first blown save), it’s not a given that Gonzalez will be reinstalled as the closer immediately upon his return.

• Role play  - Jose Reyes will assume his rightful spot at the top of the Mets batting order.  His fantasy value increases marginally on the basis of gaining an extra 30 at-bats over the remainder of the season (vs. batting third in the order); look for his average, stolen bases, and runs scored to increase as well.  Brendan Ryan will apparently lose his job as the Cardinals everyday shortstop when Felipe Lopez returns from the DL this week.  Don’t get too comfortable though if you’re a Skip Schumaker owner: unless he starts to hit soon, Lopez may cut into his playing time as well.  Yunel Escobar’s return from the DL will reduce Omar Infante’s playing time in Atlanta.  Hank Blalock takes over for Pat Burrell as Tampa Bay’s primary DH (sorry, Willy Aybar owners).  Due to outfield injuries in Atlanta and San Francisco, Eric Hinske and Andres Torres are playing more often than not; NL-only owners, take note. 

Strategy Corner

• Interleague play - This week marks the start of that favorite time of year for baseball “purists” near and far:  interleague games.  The bane of many mixed league and AL-only owners existence (especially those who play in head-to-head leagues), interleague games played in AL parks offer a special bonus for those in NL-only leagues.  Rejoice if you own players on Cincinnati, the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee, Colorado, Florida, San Francisco, and San Diego.  Doublecheck your lineups if you own a DH-type on Boston (David Ortiz), Baltimore (Luke Scott), the New York Yankees (Marcus Thames), Tampa Bay (Hank Blalock), the Los Angeles Angels (Hideki Matsui), Toronto (Adam Lind), and Detroit (Johnny Damon).  It’s possible some of these players may be used in the field, but certainly don’t count on that being the case for all three games next weekend.  You have been warned.

• Memoryless - As I’ve written in the past, a fantasy team owner’s success (or lack thereof) depends just as much, if not more so, on psychology as it does on actual knowledge of baseball players and teams.  Here’s yet another example.  Suppose you are the Sherpa a fantasy team owner who shall remain nameless.  A couple of weeks ago Kila Ka’aihue was called up from the minors, and you saw an opportunity to get more power out of your Corner Infield spot than Brendan Harris could ever possibly hope to provide.  So, you splurged and spent $2 or $3 of your $100 FAAB money to add Ka’aihue to your roster.  You’re feeling pretty good about your team’s newest acquisition; after all, he has a track record of success as a minor league power hitter, and the Royals could definitely use another power hitter in their lineup (please take a seat, Mitch Maier, your sunflower seeds will be here shortly).  Besides, why would any team, even one that has a history of head-scratching moves such as the Royals, call a player up from the minors just to sit on the bench?  Only that’s exactly what happens.  You think to yourself, “How could this be?  This doesn’t make any sense whatsoever?  Who are the real-life idiots that make these decisions?”  A week goes by, and you have the opportunity to bid on Hank Blalock, who’s just been called up to the majors, has a track record of success at the major league level, and is replacing a player who’s actually been released (so long, Pat Burrell).  Should you (a) bid aggressively on Blalock and view him as a replacement for Ka’aihue?  (b) make a half-hearted bid for Blalock, come up short, and then rationalize your mealy-mouthed/chicken-livered bid by telling yourself that Ka’aihue will still get his chance and prove you right? or (c) pass altogether on bidding for Blalock? (after all, why would anyone spend their FAAB money two weeks in a row to fill the same roster spot?  Of course, the correct answer is (a).  Almost all of us would agree with that, at least in theory.  Yet in practice many people would choose (b) or (c) because they would view (a) as an admission that they made a mistake last week.  Get over it.  Even the best fantasy owners make moves that turn out to be mistakes.  What distinguishes the more successful fantasy owners from those who aren’t as successful is the ability to admit mistakes when necessary, move on, and try again. 

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like us to address in future newsletters, send us a note with your suggestion!

• If you’re not already a subscriber, you owe it to yourself to sign up today for the Sherpa’s In-season Updates!  Use this revolutionary tool to make roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  Whenever an MLB team makes a move (e.g. - minor league call-ups, DL, batting order position changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves) playing time for all affected players is updated.  We have 990 players in our database, and our Remainder-of-Season forecasts and rankings are updated for every player, every day!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone - the Week 4 wrap-up is a few days late; hopefully, at the very least, you’ll still get something out of this week’s strategy discussion.

What a wacky period Week 4 was:  Ryan Madson losing a split decision to a clubhouse chair after blowing a save; Chris Perez fuming at Howie Kendrick after a suicide squeeze that worked; and Eric Byrnes nearly running over his GM on a bicycle and losing his job after a suicide squeeze that didn’t work. 

Thoughts from Week 4

• Injuries - A long list again this week, but the key ones were those to Joe Mauer, Nelson Cruz, and Curtis Granderson.  While it’s tempting to look at Wilson Ramos (Mauer’s fill-in and a highly-touted prospect) as a potential replacement, you’re better off going with the likes of John Baker, Ronny Paulino, or Jason Kendall, while hoping that Buster Posey, Tyler Flowers, and/or Jesus Montero get called up soon.  For Cruz and Granderson consider Marlon Byrd, Brett Gardner, David Murphy, and Aaron Rowand as possible replacements. 

• Closer roulette - This week’s 9th inning intrigue was centered in Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Colorado.  Jim Johnson is out in Baltimore (and back in the minors), Alfredo Simon has the job for now, but Mike Gonzalez, and possibly even Koji Uehara are waiting in the wings.  In Philly Ryan Madson is out (and on the DL - see above), Brad Lidge is back, and Jose Contreras may soon get a shot if Lidge falters.  In Colorado Huston Street is at least a couple of weeks away from returning, and Franklin Morales may soon be replaced by Manny Corpas.  Pay no attention when a blast from the past such as Bruce Chen or Nelson Figueroa garners the random save.

• Should they stay or should they go?  - Luke Hochevar?  Go.  Colby Lewis?  Stay.  Dana Eveland?  Go.  Ben Sheets?  Go.  Jake Peavy?  Stay.  Carlos Silva?  Go.  Livan Hernandez?  Go.  Carlos Lee?  Stay.  Jeff Clement?  Go.

• Sell high candidates  - Robinson Cano, Vernon Wells, Paul Konerko, Andre Ethier, Marlon Byrd, Kelly Johnson, Doug Fister, Ricky Romero, Colby Lewis, Barry Zito, Livan Hernandez, Brad Penny.

• Buy low candidates  - Mike Napoli, Matt LaPorta, A.J. Pierzynski, Brendan Ryan, Carlos Lee, Nate McLouth, Javier Vazquez, Jake Peavy, Josh Beckett, Jair Jurrjens, Trevor Hoffman, Adam Harang.

Strategy Corner

• Head-to-head leagues - Two thoughts:  (1) Since there’s no carryover impact from a player having a bad week, you should be willing to take more chances with a head-to-head lineup than you would with a roto lineup.  In a roto league you would almost never consider starting Russell Branyan over someone like James Loney because of the irreparable damage Branyan would do to your team’s batting average over the course of a season.  However, in a head-to-head league, besides supplying more power most weeks than Loney, there are also a handful of weeks in which Branyan would actually provide a higher batting average than Loney too.  (2) If you have a fairly large lead in an average-based category late in the week, there’s nothing wrong with benching your players to increase the chances you’ll preserve your lead.  This is particularly true on the pitching side, where multiple average-based categories are usually used, and if your head-to-head league uses a “winner takes all” format for the weekly matchups. 

• Incremental improvement - Keeping up with the day-to-day player developments can seem like an onerous chore for fantasy owners.  However, keep in mind that the most successful owners are the ones that always take advantage of opportunities to improve their team throughout the season, no matter how slight the improvement might seem.  It’s easy to think that the owners who win championships are the ones that have a successful draft/auction and get lucky with a few key in-season speculative pick-ups.  Usually, that’s only partially true - successful owners are the ones who upgrade from Tommy Manzella to Ronny Cedeno or from Garrett Atkins to Ty Wigginton.  Taken individually, these changes will have only a marginal impact on your team, but if you take this approach consistently throughout the season (whether through trades or free agent acquisitions), you’ll increase your chances of success dramatically.

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page