The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

This entry is the second in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll continue with the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 mixed league format.

1. Zack Greinke (Preseason rank was 37) - KC, SP
   • Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 237 K, 3.55 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
   • Projected stats: 206 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.93 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 179 K, 1.82 Sherpa Pts
2. Tim Lincecum (4) - SF, SP
   • Actual stats: 225.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 261 K, 3.46 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 220 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 259 K, 3.20 Sherpa Pts
3. Javier Vazquez (45) - ATL, SP
   • Actual stats: 219.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 238 K, 3.21 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 213 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 203 K, 1.62 Sherpa Pts
4. Felix Hernandez (50) -SEA, SP
   • Actual stats: 232 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 211 K, 3.19 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 198 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 174 K, 1.57 Sherpa Pts
5. Dan Haren (7) - ARI, SP
   • Actual stats: 229.1 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 223 K, 3.10 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 216 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.63 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 193 K, 2.75 Sherpa Pts
6. Roy Halladay (3) - TOR, SP
   • Actual stats: 239 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 208 K, 3.09 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 240 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 173 K, 3.31 Sherpa Pts
7. Chris Carpenter (285) - STL, SP
   • Actual stats: 192.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.24 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 144 K, 3.06 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 50 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 3.96 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 27 K, 0.35 Sherpa Pts
8. Adam Wainwright (13) - STL, SP
   • Actual stats: 227 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 2.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 204 K, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 214 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 146 K, 2.36 Sherpa Pts
9. CC Sabathia (2) - NYY, SP
   • Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 194 K, 2.94 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 235 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 219 K, 3.68 Sherpa Pts
10. Justin Verlander (73) - DET, SP
    • Actual stats: 232.1 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 264 K, 2.86 Sherpa Pts
    • Projected stats: 198 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 160 K, 1.29 Sherpa Pts

As was the case last year, the most interesting observation from my perspective is the relative difficulty in projecting W, ERA and WHIP vs. projecting Ks. Injuries obviously impact the actual rankings (see Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, and Brandon Webb below), but so do incorrect initial estimates regarding Innings Pitched. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only four of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

27. Johan Santana (1) - NYM, SP

• Actual stats: 166.2 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 146 K, 1.92 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 225 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 218 K, 3.72 Sherpa Pts

63. Jake Peavy (5) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 101.2 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 110 K, 1.36 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 213 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 215 K, 3.20 Sherpa Pts

402. Brandon Webb (6) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 4 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 13.50 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 2 K, -0.10 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 226 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 181 K, 2.89 Sherpa Pts

65. Cole Hamels (9) - PHI, SP

• Actual stats: 193.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 168 K, 1.36 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 197 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.56 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 185 K, 2.71 Sherpa Pts

74. Rich Harden (9) - CHC, SP

• Actual stats: 141 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.09 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 171 K, 1.22 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 143 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.71 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 161 K, 2.62 Sherpa Pts

69. Roy Oswalt (10) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 181.1 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 4.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 138 K, 1.27 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 212 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 161 K, 2.53 Sherpa Pts

We’ll soon be starting work here in Sherpaville on our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This will be the first in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. Today I’ll start with the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 mixed league format.  The statistics from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included here.

1. Albert Pujols (Preseason rank was 2) - STL, 1B
   • Actual stats: 555 AB, 47 HR, 134 RBI, 16 SB, .328 AVG, 122 R, 3.85 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
   • Projected stats: 562 AB, 39 HR, 118 RBI, 5 SB, .331 AVG, 106 R, 3.43 Sherpa Pts
2. Hanley Ramirez (4) - FLA, SS
   • Actual stats: 574 AB, 24 HR, 105 RBI, 26 SB, .341 AVG, 100 R, 3.27 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 635 AB, 36 HR, 93 RBI, 27 SB, .299 AVG, 119 R, 3.27 Sherpa Pts
3. Ryan Braun (8) - MIL, OF
   • Actual stats: 620 AB, 31 HR, 108 RBI, 18 SB, .318 AVG, 110 R, 3.20 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 639 AB, 38 HR, 113 RBI, 22 SB, .288 AVG, 108 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts
4. Prince Fielder (49) -MIL, 1B
   • Actual stats: 581 AB, 44 HR, 138 RBI, 2 SB, .298 AVG, 101 R, 3.15 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 584 AB, 38 HR, 103 RBI, 4 SB, .277 AVG, 93 R, 2.44 Sherpa Pts
5. Joe Mauer (126) - MIN, C
   • Actual stats: 509 AB, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 4 SB, .367 AVG, 90 R, 3.04 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 437 AB, 8 HR, 66 RBI, 4 SB, .309 AVG, 72 R, 1.73 Sherpa Pts
6. Ryan Howard (13) - PHI, 1B
   • Actual stats: 608 AB, 43 HR, 138 RBI, 8 SB, .276 AVG, 102 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 587 AB, 51 HR, 146 RBI, 1 SB, .269 AVG, 104 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts
7. Miguel Cabrera (9) - DET, 1B
   • Actual stats: 595 AB, 33 HR, 101 RBI, 6 SB, .329 AVG, 95 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 612 AB, 35 HR, 125 RBI, 3 SB, .310 AVG, 93 R, 3.05 Sherpa Pts
8. Derek Jeter (30) - NYY, SS
   • Actual stats: 627 AB, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 30 SB, .335 AVG, 107 R, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 680 AB, 12 HR, 81 RBI, 17 SB, .307 AVG, 106 R, 2.63 Sherpa Pts
9. Matt Kemp (3) - LAD, OF
   • Actual stats: 598 AB, 26 HR, 100 RBI, 34 SB, .301 AVG, 96 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 673 AB, 22 HR, 98 RBI, 35 SB, .306 AVG, 117 R, 3.29 Sherpa Pts
10. Carl Crawford (27) - TB, OF
    • Actual stats: 598 AB, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 60 SB, .306 AVG, 95 R, 2.92 Sherpa Pts
    • Projected stats: 600 AB, 12 HR, 78 RBI, 44 SB, .293 AVG, 94 R, 2.65 Sherpa Pts

Albert Pujols captured the top spot for the second straight season.  AVG remains the most difficult hitting category to project. Injuries obviously impact the actual rankings (e.g. - Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran), but so do changes in batting order position (e.g. - Matt Kemp). Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 5 of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list (that was also the case in 2008). Who were the other five, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

13. Matt Holliday (1) - OAK/STL, OF

• Actual stats: 581 AB, 24 HR, 109 RBI, 14 SB, .313 AVG, 94 R, 2.79 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 616 AB, 31 HR, 110 RBI, 20 SB, .318 AVG, 117 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts

54. David Wright (5) - NYM, 3B

• Actual stats: 529 AB, 10 HR, 70 RBI, 26 SB, .304 AVG, 87 R, 2.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 590 AB, 29 HR, 114 RBI, 21 SB, .310 AVG, 107 R, 3.21 Sherpa Pts

259. Jose Reyes (6) - NYM, SS

• Actual stats: 147 AB, 2 HR, 15 RBI, 11 SB, .279 AVG, 18 R, 0.53 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 674 AB, 15 HR, 67 RBI, 63 SB, .292 AVG, 116 R, 3.14 Sherpa Pts

165. Alfonso Soriano (7) - CHC, OF

• Actual stats: 477 AB, 20 HR, 55 RBI, 9 SB, .241 AVG, 64 R, 1.07 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 652 AB, 41 HR, 97 RBI, 28 SB, .285 AVG, 111 R, 3.12 Sherpa Pts

116. Carlos Beltran (10) - NYM, OF

• Actual stats: 300 AB, 10 HR, 48 RBI, 11 SB, .330 AVG, 49 R, 1.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 587 AB, 33 HR, 118 RBI, 24 SB, .281 AVG, 115 R, 2.99 Sherpa Pts

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to develop projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2009 top 10 Pitchers in a mixed league 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

With fantasy baseball playoffs starting this week in many Head-to-Head leagues, your selection of Starting Pitchers takes on added importance.  Sure, you’re going to start Zack Greinke, Roy Halladay, and Tim Lincecum (assuming he’s healthy) if you’re fortunate enough to have them on your team this season.  But what if you’re trying to decide between Bronson Arroyo and Kevin Correia for your last pitching spot?

 You could “go with your gut” and hope for the best (good luck with that).  You could look up each pitcher’s historical record (assuming he has one) against his upcoming opponent(s) and use that as a guide, ignoring the fact that a team’s roster is likely to experience significant turnover from season to season that will render historical results obsolete.  You could rely on the Remainder-of-Season Forecasts in the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s In-season Updates (shameless self-promotion).

While the third option is definitely better than the first two, it still leaves out one crucial component if you’re trying to make a short-term decision on which pitcher to start:  the quality of the pitcher’s opponent.  How can this be quantified?  The same way you would quantify the pitcher’s results - look at the historical data.

To assess a starting pitcher’s upcoming matchup(s) we want to use opponents’ success (or lack thereof) against a specific team.  For example, if I play in a league that uses the standard 5 pitching categories (Wins, Saves, Ks, ERA, WHIP), I’ll want to look at MLB Opponent Pitching Stats in each category that involves starting pitchers, so that eliminates Saves from my list.

I want to set my scoring system up so that the least desirable opponents have the highest scores, and the most desirable opponents have the lowest scores.  The least desirable opponent would have the highest number of Wins (equivalently, the lowest number of losses), the biggest difference between AB and Strikeouts (or, if you prefer, the lowest Strikeout per AB rate), the highest number of Runs Scored (using this as a proxy for ERA), and the highest number of Walks + Hits (using this as a proxy for WHIP).  Conversely, the most desirable opponent would have the lowest number of Wins (equivalently, the highest number of losses), the highest Strikeout per AB rate, the lowest number of Runs Scored, and the lowest number of Walks + Hits.

We can set up a scoring system for which the “best” team in each category receives a score of 1.00, and all other teams receive a score between 0 and 1 depending on the ratio of their result to the result of the best team in each category.  Thus, the maximum score is the number of pitching categories under consideration (4 in my example).  Add up a team’s results in each category to get its overall score; again, the lower the overall score, the more desirable the opponent.

Based on games through 9/12/09, here’s how the 30 MLB teams rank using the 4 categories in my example (with their accompanying score):

1. Pit 2.82 (max score is 4.00)
2. KC 2.90
3. Cin 2.94
4. SD 2.95
5. Was 2.96
6. SF 3.05
7. Sea 3.06
8. Ari 3.08
9. NYM 3.08
10. Hou 3.09
11. Bal 3.10
12. Oak 3.12
13. ChC 3.15
14. Mil 3.17
15. Cle 3.19
16. CWS 3.20
17. Det 3.20
18. Atl 3.25
19. Tor 3.25
20. TB 3.29
21. Min 3.30
22. StL 3.33
23. Fla 3.35
24. Phi 3.38
25. Col 3.41
26. Bos 3.48
27. LAD 3.50
28. Tex 3.56
29. LAA 3.62
30. NYY 3.80

You may wonder about the impact of September call-ups on these rankings.  Generally, the teams with the highest scores (i.e. - those closest to 4.00) are fighting for playoff berths and figure to play their everyday lineups at least until they’re locked into a playoff spot.  Those with the lowest scores are generally calling up more minor leaguers and “seeing what they’ve got”, so it may be even more advantageous than this chart would indicate to stream pitchers facing these lower-ranked teams.

The approach I’ve outlined above can take some of the guesswork out of selecting starting pitchers for your weekly lineups.  Of course, use your common sense - given the choice, I’d much rather start Roy Halladay against the Yankees than start Jeff Suppan against the Pirates.  However, if you’re deciding among several pitchers of similar quality, this analysis can be extremely useful.

Good luck in the homestretch!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for a Mixed League 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 62 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 31 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 246 AB, 22 HR, 62 RBI, 5 SB, .333 AVG, 53 R, 3.80 Total Sherpa Points
2. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 97 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.69 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 92 K, 3.48 Total Sherpa Points
3. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 289 AB, 17 HR, 54 RBI, 8 SB, .311 AVG, 57 R, 3.46 Total Sherpa Points
4. Tim Lincecum (SF, SP) - 100 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 117 K, 3.36 Total Sherpa Points
5. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 273 AB, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 11 SB, .326 AVG, 49 R, 3.32 Total Sherpa Points
6. Matt Kemp (LAD, OF) - 304 AB, 10 HR, 46 RBI, 17 sB, .313 AVG, 49 R, 3.22 Total Sherpa Points
7. Carl Crawford (TB, OF) - 302 AB, 7 HR, 36 RBI, 30 SB, .301 AVG, 48 R, 3.19 Total Sherpa Points
8. Ryan Braun (Mil, OF) - 292 AB, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 8 SB, .301 AVG, 52 R, 3.17 Total Sherpa Points
9. Alex Rodriguez (NYY, 3B) - 256 AB, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 7 SB, .281 AVG, 51 R, 3.17 Total Sherpa Points
10. Roy Halladay (Tor, SP) - 144 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 3.00 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 112 K, 3.10 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the Top 10 performers through Week 14 for a Mixed League 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 32 HR, then a player with 24 HR would be given a score of 0.75 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 307 AB, 32 HR, 87 RBI, 10 SB, .332 AVG, 73 R, 3.83 Total Sherpa Points
2. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 130.0 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.01 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 129 K, 3.69 Total Sherpa Points
3. Tim Lincecum (SF, SP) - 127.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.33 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 149 K, 3.31 Total Sherpa Points
4. Zack Greinke (KC, SP) - 127.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.12 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 129 K, 3.22 Total Sherpa Points
5. Carl Crawford (TB, OF) - 353 AB, 8 HR, 39 RBI, 44 SB, .309 AVG, 58 R, 2.94 Total Sherpa Points
6. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 312 AB, 14 HR, 61 RBI, 13 SB, .349 AVG, 53 R, 2.94 Total Sherpa Points
7. Prince Fielder (Mil, 1B) - 308 AB, 22 HR, 78 RBI, 1 SB, .315 AVG, 58 R, 2.85 Total Sherpa Points
8. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 307 AB, 20 HR, 61 RBI, 9 SB, .313 AVG, 62 R, 2.81 Total Sherpa Points
9. Felix Hernandez (Sea, SP) - 124.2 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.53 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 121 K, 2.76 Total Sherpa Points
10. Justin Morneau (Min, 1B) - 334 AB, 21 HR, 70 RBI, 0 SB, .311 AVG, 59 R, 2.72 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an AL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 60 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 40 RBI would be given a score of 0.67 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Roy Halladay (Tor, SP) - 100 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 3.06 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 80 K, 3.77 Total Sherpa Points
2. CC Sabathia (NYY, SP) - 107 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 3.53 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 89 K, 3.57 Total Sherpa Points
3. Alex Rodriguez (NYY, 3B) - 256 AB, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 7 SB, .281 AVG, 51 R, 3.34 Total Sherpa Points
4. Zack Greinke (KC, SP) - 94 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.87 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 89 K, 3.29 Total Sherpa Points
5. Carl Crawford (TB, OF) - 302 AB, 7 HR, 36 RBI, 30 SB, .301 AVG, 47 R, 2.99 Total Sherpa Points
6. Miguel Cabrera (Det, 1B) - 283 AB, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 1 SB, .314 AVG, 45 R, 3.10 Total Sherpa Points
7. Bobby Abreu (LAA, OF) - 279 AB, 7 HR, 51 RBI, 15 SB, .301 AVG, 47 R, 2.99 Total Sherpa Points
8. Justin Morneau (Min, 1B) - 269 AB, 15 HR, 56 RBI, 0 SB, .305 AVG, 45 R, 2.96 Total Sherpa Points
9. Ichiro Suzuki (Sea, OF) - 305 AB, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 17 SB, .344 AVG, 43 R, 2.93 Total Sherpa Points
10. Nelson Cruz (Tex, OF) - 257 AB, 17 HR, 48 RBI, 10 SB, .276 AVG, 44 R, 2.90 Total Sherpa Points
11. Derek Jeter (NYY, SS) - 311 AB, 7 HR, 35 RBI, 12 SB, .315 AVG, 50 R, 2.90 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the Top 10 performers through Week 14 for an AL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 24 HR, then a player with 8 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Zack Greinke (KC, SP) - 127.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.12 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 129 K, 3.77 Total Sherpa Points
2. Felix Hernandez (Sea, SP) - 124.2, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.53 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 121 K, 3.21 Total Sherpa Points
3. Roy Halladay (Tor, SP) - 123.0 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 106 K, 3.18 Total Sherpa Points
4. Justin Morneau (Min, 1B) - 334 AB, 21 HR, 70 RBI, 0 SB, .311 AVG, 59 R, 3.16 Total Sherpa Points
5. Carl Crawford (TB, OF) - 353 AB, 8 HR, 39 RBI, 44 SB, .309 AVG, 58 R, 3.15 Total Sherpa Points
6. Edwin Jackson (Det, SP) - 121.2 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 2.51 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 97 K, 3.09 Total Sherpa Points
7. Torii Hunter (LAA, OF) - 285 AB, 17 HR, 65 RBI, 13 SB, .305 AVG, 56 R, 3.05 Total Sherpa Points
8. Justin Verlander (Det, SP) - 122.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 149 K, 2.94 Total Sherpa Points
9. Josh Beckett (Bos, SP) - 121.0 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.35 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 110 K, 2.92 Total Sherpa Points
10. Jered Weaver (LAA, SP) - 120.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 3.22 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 104 K, 2.92 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an NL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 62 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 31 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 246 AB, 22 HR, 62 RBI, 5 SB, .333 AVG, 53 R, 4.15 Total Sherpa Points
2. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 289 AB, 17 HR, 54 RBI, 8 SB, .311 AVG, 57 R, 3.80 Total Sherpa Points
3. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 273 AB, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 11 SB, .326 AVG, 49 R, 3.74 Total Sherpa Points
4. Matt Kemp (LAD, OF) - 304 AB, 10 HR, 46 RBI, 17 SB, .313 AVG, 49 R, 3.66 Total Sherpa Points
5. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 97 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.69 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 92 K, 3.48 Total Sherpa Points
6. Ryan Braun (Mil, OF) - 292 AB, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 8 SB, .301 AVG, 52 R, 3.47 Total Sherpa Points
7. David Wright (NYM, 3B) - 273 AB, 8 HR, 44 RBI, 14 SB, .319 AVG, 48 R, 3.40 Total Sherpa Points
8. Tim Lincecum (SF, SP) - 100 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 117 K, 3.36 Total Sherpa Points
9. Prince Fielder (Mil, 1B) - 267 AB, 18 HR, 58 RBI, 1 SB, .296 AVG, 47 R, 3.14 Total Sherpa Points
10. Shane Victorino (Phi, OF) - 303 AB, 6 HR, 34 RBI, 15 SB, .300 AVG, 54 R, 3.08 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the Top 10 performers through Week 14 for an NL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 32 HR, then a player with 16 HR would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 307 AB, 32 HR, 87 RBI, 10 SB, .332 AVG, 73 R, 4.10 Total Sherpa Points
2. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 130.0 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.01 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 129 K, 3.69 Total Sherpa Points
3. Tim Lincecum (SF, SP) - 127.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.33 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 149 K, 3.30 Total Sherpa Points
4. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 312 AB, 14 HR, 61 RBI, 13 SB, .349 AVG, 53 R, 3.28 Total Sherpa Points
5. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 307 AB, 20 HR, 61 RBI, 9 SB, .313 AVG, 62 R, 3.03 Total Sherpa Points
6. Prince Fielder (Mil, 1B) - 308 AB, 22 HR, 78 RBI, 1 SB, .315 AVG, 58 R, 3.01 Total Sherpa Points
7. Matt Kemp (LAD, OF) - 325 AB, 11 HR, 50 RBI, 19 SB, .320 AVG, 48 R, 2.85 Total Sherpa Points
8. Ryan Braun (Mil, OF) - 332 AB, 16 HR, 58 RBI, 7 SB, .310 AVG, 61 R, 2.82 Total Sherpa Points
9. David Wright (NYM, 3B) - 327 AB, 5 HR, 44 RBI, 20 SB, .324 AVG, 56 R, 2.82 Total Sherpa Points
10. Raul Ibanez (Phi, OF) - 259 AB, 22 HR, 60 RBI, 4 SB, .309 AVG, 53 R, 2.69 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

So, it’s Sunday night or Monday morning, and your league’s weekly lineup submissions are due.  You’re trying to decide among three starting pitchers (whether on your current roster or not) to fill your last pitching slot.  How should you go about it?

You could “go with your gut” and hope for the best (good luck with that).  You could look up each pitcher’s historical record (assuming he has one) against his upcoming opponent(s) and use that as a guide, ignoring the fact that a team’s roster is likely to experience significant turnover from season to season that will render historical results obsolete.  You could rely on the Remainder-of-Season Forecasts in the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s In-season Updates (shameless self-promotion).

While the third option is definitely better than the first two, it still leaves out one crucial component if you’re trying to make a short-term decision on which pitcher to start:  the quality of the pitcher’s opponent.  How can this be quantified?  The same way you would quantify the pitcher’s results - look at the historical data.

To assess a starting pitcher’s upcoming matchup(s) we want to use opponents’ success (or lack thereof) against a specific team.  For example, if I play in a league that uses the standard 5 pitching categories (Wins, Saves, Ks, ERA, WHIP), I’ll want to look at MLB Opponent Pitching Stats in each category that involves starting pitchers, so that eliminates Saves from my list.

I want to set my scoring system up so that the least desirable opponents have the highest scores, and the most desirable opponents have the lowest scores.  The least desirable opponent would have the highest number of Wins (equivalently, the lowest number of losses), the biggest difference between AB and Strikeouts (or, if you prefer, the lowest Strikeout per AB rate), the highest number of Runs Scored (using this as a proxy for ERA), and the highest number of Walks + Hits (using this as a proxy for WHIP).  Conversely, the most desirable opponent would have the lowest number of Wins (equivalently, the highest number of losses), the highest Strikeout per AB rate, the lowest number of Runs Scored, and the lowest number of Walks + Hits.

We can set up a scoring system for which the “best” team in each category receives a score of 1.00, and all other teams receive a score between 0 and 1 depending on the ratio of their result to the result of the best team in each category.  Thus, the maximum score is the number of pitching categories under consideration (4 in my example).  Add up a team’s results in each category to get its overall score; again, the lower the overall score, the more desirable the opponent.

Based on games through 7/3/09, here’s how the 30 MLB teams rank using the 4 categories in my example (with their accompanying score):

1. Was 2.96 (max score is 4.00)
2. SD 3.00
3. KC 3.01
4. Oak 3.07
5. Ari 3.11
6. ChC 3.16
7. Cin 3.21
8. SF 3.23
9. Sea 3.23
10. Hou 3.24
11. Pit 3.29
12. Atl 3.30
13. Tex 3.36
14. CWS 3.37
15. Bal 3.38
16. Mil 3.39
17. Fla 3.40
18. NYM 3.40
19. Cle 3.41
20. StL 3.43
21. Col 3.44
22. Det 3.44
23. Min 3.53
24. LAA 3.53
25. Phi 3.58
26. Tor 3.65
27. Bos 3.71
28. TB 3.72
29. LAD 3.73
30. NYY 3.77

No significant changes since the last rankings update (on 6/21/09), but it’s important to take a quick glance at a team’s current overall health compared to its health season-to-date.  Tracking the standings over time (weekly or bi-weekly updates are best) will give you a good sense of whether a team’s offenses is improving, treading water, or getting worse.

The approach I’ve outlined above can take some of the guesswork out of selecting starting pitchers for your weekly lineups.  Of course, use your common sense - given the choice, I’d much rather start Tim Lincecum against the Dodgers than start Livan Hernandez or Russ Ortiz against the Nationals.  However, if you’re deciding among several pitchers of similar quality, this analysis can be extremely useful.

Until next time!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter