So, it’s Sunday night or Monday morning, and your league’s weekly lineup submissions are due. You’re trying to decide among three starting pitchers (whether on your current roster or not) to fill your last pitching slot. How should you go about it?
You could “go with your gut” and hope for the best (good luck with that). You could look up each pitcher’s historical record (assuming he has one) against his upcoming opponent(s) and use that as a guide, ignoring the fact that a team’s roster is likely to experience significant turnover from season to season that will render historical results obsolete. You could rely on the Remainder-of-Season Forecasts in the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s In-season Updates (shameless self-promotion).
While the third option is definitely better than the first two, it still leaves out one crucial component if you’re trying to make a short-term decision on which pitcher to start: the quality of the pitcher’s opponent. How can this be quantified? The same way you would quantify the pitcher’s results - look at the historical data.
To assess a starting pitcher’s upcoming matchup(s) we want to use opponents’ success (or lack thereof) against a specific team. For example, if I play in a league that uses the standard 5 pitching categories (Wins, Saves, Ks, ERA, WHIP), I’ll want to look at MLB Opponent Pitching Stats in each category that involves starting pitchers, so that eliminates Saves from my list.
I want to set my scoring system up so that the least desirable opponents have the highest scores, and the most desirable opponents have the lowest scores. The least desirable opponent would have the highest number of Wins (equivalently, the lowest number of losses), the biggest difference between AB and Strikeouts (or, if you prefer, the lowest Strikeout per AB rate), the highest number of Runs Scored (using this as a proxy for ERA), and the highest number of Walks + Hits (using this as a proxy for WHIP). Conversely, the most desirable opponent would have the lowest number of Wins (equivalently, the highest number of losses), the highest Strikeout per AB rate, the lowest number of Runs Scored, and the lowest number of Walks + Hits.
We can set up a scoring system for which the “best” team in each category receives a score of 1.00, and all other teams receive a score between 0 and 1 depending on the ratio of their result to the result of the best team in each category. Thus, the maximum score is the number of pitching categories under consideration (4 in my example). Add up a team’s results in each category to get its overall score; again, the lower the overall score, the more desirable the opponent.
Based on games through 6/20/09, here’s how the 30 MLB teams rank using the 4 categories in my example (with their accompanying score):
SD 2.96 (max score is 4.00)
Was 2.98
KC 3.03
ChC 3.07
Oak 3.13
SF 3.13
CWS 3.15
Sea 3.15
Ari 3.18
Hou 3.18
Atl 3.20
Cin 3.21
Pit 3.22
Bal 3.34
Tex 3.35
Fla 3.36
NYM 3.39
Mil 3.40
StL 3.41
Det 3.42
LAA 3.43
Col 3.43
Cle 3.46
Phi 3.50
Min 3.53
Bos 3.69
NYY 3.70
TB 3.71
Tor 3.72
LAD 3.81
No surprise to see teams like the Nationals, Royals, Padres, A’s, Mariners, and Giants at the top of the list of most desirable opponents, but the presence of the Cubs among the “worst” offensive teams is a bit of a surprise to me. If you’d asked me before the season started, I would have told you that the Cubs should have one of the best offenses in baseball. Of course, Aramis Ramirez’ injury combined with slow starts by Geovany Soto, Derrek Lee, and Alfonso Soriano have all contributed to the Cubs’ abysmal ranking. However, it points out the need to take a quick glance at a team’s current overall health compared to its health season-to-date. The NY Mets are ranked in the middle of the pack according to this chart, but sans Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes, they’re obviously a less formidable foe now than they would be if this pair were healthy. Tracking the standings over time (I’d suggest weekly or bi-weekly updates) will give you a good sense of which team’s offenses are improving, treading water, or getting worse.
The approach I’ve outlined above can take some of the guesswork out of selecting starting pitchers for your weekly lineups. Of course, use your common sense - given the choice, I’d much rather start Johan Santana against the Dodgers than start Livan Hernandez or Tim Redding against the Padres. However, if you’re deciding among several pitchers of similar quality, this analysis can be extremely useful.
The following is an updated & consolidated version of two posts I made in April 2008 concerning weekly FAAB spending targets - enjoy!
Many fantasy baseball leagues allow teams to claim available players from the free agent list/waiver wire on a first come, first served basis. Others have a weekly claim process in which the team currently at the bottom of the standings gets the first shot at the list of available players. My favorite method of awarding players to teams is the Free Agent Acquisition Budget (aka FAAB). Each team gets the same FAAB dollars (usually $100 or $1,000) to spend as it sees fit over the course of the season.
While the use of the FAAB system makes all unclaimed players available to all teams, many owners struggle with the question of how to spend their FAAB dollars as wisely as possible. Should the spending be front-loaded? Should the FAAB dollars be spent evenly over the course of the year? Should the money be hoarded until later in the season in case an injury to a real-life player necessitates a fantasy replacement or results in a hot-shot minor leaguer getting a shot at The Show?
Here are the Sherpa’s tips for spending your FAAB wisely - I call them my “FAAB Five”:
Pace yourself, but not too much. All else being equal, a player acquired earlier in the season is much more likely to affect your place in the year-end standings than a player acquired later in the season. If your league allows claims at the end of each week of the season, then a player claimed at the end of Week 1 (i.e. - the first claim) should have approximately 25 times the impact of a player claimed at the end of Week 25 (i.e. - the last claim). Your FAAB spending should reflect this reality, keeping in mind that most leagues require whole dollar bids of at least $1.
Assess other teams’ current needs before you bid. If you need to find a replacement for the DL’d Jake Peavy, and you’re the only team in your league that currently needs to pick up a Starting Pitcher, don’t bid against yourself. The notable exceptions to this tip involve players with potential contributions in the Steals and Saves categories. At least one other team will more than likely submit a bid on a player who may contribute in either of these two categories, even if they have no immediate need from a roster position standpoint.
Monitor other teams’ FAAB spending throughout the year. Unless your league creates automated reports tracking and summarizing FAAB spending by team, this can be time-consuming, but it’s well worth the effort to know how much money other teams have left if you may be bidding against them for a player.
Balance your remaining FAAB with a player’s actual abilities. Do not spend 50% of your FAAB dollars (or even 25% for that matter) on a pitcher like Dontrelle Willis, even if you are unlucky enough to have Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, John Maine, Justin Duchscherer, and Jesse Litsch on your current pitching staff. Also, do not overspend for highly-touted rookies such as David Price, Matt Wieters, Tommy Hanson, etc. You may get lucky and get the next Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria, but you’re much more likely to get the next Alex Escobar.
Timing is everything - don’t be afraid to speculate! If you have the roster positions to do so, speculate on desirable players before an injury, role change, or call-up from the minor leagues sends their value skyrocketing. Matt Laporta, Brandon Wood, Jeff Clement, Chad Fox, Jesus Guzman, Gaby Sanchez, Kyle Banks, Jensen Lewis, Brian Bruney, and Tony Pena (the pitcher!) will be much less expensive now than they will be if the players currently ahead of them on their respective teams’ depth charts falter or suffer an injury.
That said, the following is how I’d recommend spending a $100 FAAB if your league has 25 claims over the course of the season (i.e. - one at the end of each week starting with week 1). The week number is listed first, followed by the recommended amount to spend that week, followed by the recommended amount to spend year-to-date (YTD), and the implied FAAB dollars remaining. If you spend less than the recommended amount in a given week, then you will have more left over to spend in subsequent weeks, and vice versa.
Your eyes are not playing tricks on you - even though we’re at the end of Week 10, and just under 40% of the season has elapsed, you’re completely justified in having already spent over 60% of your FAAB for the year!
Finally, everyone makes “mistakes” with their FAAB purchases - it’s just an inevitable part of the game. How many of you spent large amounts of your FAAB on Matt Laporta or Brandon Wood earlier this season, only to see them languish on their respective teams’ bench before being sent back down to the minors? Don’t worry - it happens. The key is to make sure that your “mistakes” don’t make you gun-shy in pursuing other potential impact players in the future. Just like a Closer who gives up a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 9th inning of a game, you’ve got to put it behind you and bid in future weeks as though your “mistake” had never happened.
Remember the circus event that took place just a couple of months ago when Scott Boras and the Los Angeles Dodgers staged one of the strangest negotiations in the history of free agency? That all seems like a distant memory now. The 50-game suspension of Manny Ramirez today for the use of a banned substance tore through the baseball world like a tornado, leaving many fantasy baseball team owners to pick up the pieces and wonder “what next?”.
If you’re unfortunate enough to play in a league that has no Bench or DL spots, you have little choice but to let Manny go or find another owner who’s willing to give you pennies on the dollar in a trade - you can’t afford two months of goose eggs from a roster spot if you hope to win your league’s championship this year.
If a Bench or DL spot is an option in your league, then your team’s situation isn’t nearly as dire. However, there’s still the matter of replacing Manny’s name in your lineup. It goes without saying that you won’t be able to come anywhere near replacing Manny’s production in your lineup unless you get lottery ticket lucky with a rookie call-up like Matt LaPorta or Nolan Reimold (I assume that they’re already taken if they’re eligible in your league).
If your league has a DH/Utility spot, and you’re fortunate enough to have an outfielder in that spot currently, then you’re also relatively fortunate in that you have the entire free agent hitter pool to consider for a Manny replacement. If not, then you’ll have to confine your search to the available pool of outfielders.
The following are ranked lists of outfielders who may be available in your league, depending of course on the type of league you play in (NL-only vs. Mixed) and your league’s particular roster requirements. Both sets of rankings assume the usual 5 hitting categories (HR, RBI, SB, R, AVG). These remainder-of-season rankings are taken from the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa In-season Updates. Since each player is given a maximum score of 1.00 in each of the categories, the maximum possible score is 5.00
Mixed League
Josh Anderson (2.18)
Ben Francisco (1.75)
Aaron Rowand (1.72)
Michael Cuddyer (1.56)
Scott Hairston (1.51)
Franklin Gutierrez (1.48)
Ryan Church (1.45)
Ken Griffey Jr (1.38)
Juan Pierre (1.31)
Juan Rivera (1.29)
Gary Matthews Jr (1.27)
Wladimir Balentien (1.23)
Chris Dickerson (1.21)
Brandon Moss (1.14)
Eric Hinske (0.91)
Omar Infante (0.82)
Micah Hoffpauir (0.72)
Austin Kearns (0.53)
Lou Montanez (0.41)
Laynce Nix (0.21)
Xavier Paul (0.09)
NL-only (I’m assuming that Rowand, Hairston, Church, and Pierre would be unavailble in this format)
Chris Dickerson (1.26)
Brandon Moss (1.18)
Eric Hinske (0.96)
Omar Infante (0.83)
Micah Hoffpauir (0.73)
Austin Kearns (0.56)
Laynce Nix (0.21)
Xavier Paul (0.10)
Note that since the players’ scores in each of the five categories are based on their forecasted result in that category relative to the league leader’s (among eligible players), the scores will vary slightly between a mixed league and an NL-only league.
Category needs should also factor into your decision; just keep in mind that you’re trying to minimize the damage rather than find someone capable or replicating Manny’s stats (it’s highly unlikely such a person exists on your league’s waiver wire)!
Then again, if he’s a fan of irony maybe Dodgers’ GM Ned Colletti has Barry Bonds’ phone # . . . . . . nah . . .
Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for a 5×5 Mixed League format. The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 110 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 55 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points). The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).
Here are the Top 10 performers through April for a Mixed League 5×5 format. The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 9 HR, then a player with 3 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points). The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).
Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an AL-only 5×5 format. The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 33 HR, then a player with a forecast of 22 HR would be given a score of 0.67 Sherpa Points). The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).
Here are the Top 10 performers through April for an AL-only 5×5 format. The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 9 HR, then a player with 3 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points). The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).
Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an NL-only 5×5 format. The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 110 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 55 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points). The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).
Here are the Top 10 performers through April for an NL-only 5×5 format. The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 9 HR, then a player with 3 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points). The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).
Saturday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars Mixed League auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan. This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers). Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers. Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster. The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.
I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Saturday’s auction.
Projections by Team - Hitting Categories
Owner
AB
AVG
HR
RBI
SB
R
Behrens
6,720
.280
244
1,042
126
1,063
Carroll
5,129
.286
180
785
70
776
Cushing
6,290
.281
214
895
165
971
Dennis
7,293
.280
277
1,104
150
1,118
Gonos
6,526
.276
259
1,027
97
1,069
Hoyos
6,983
.280
205
975
223
1,046
Karabell
7,492
.272
294
1,127
161
1,177
Kastner
7,324
.279
227
999
165
1,111
Liss
6,053
.279
231
887
123
917
Mack
7,009
.273
281
1,062
123
1,073
Patton
6,393
.278
244
924
206
1,024
Petera
6,668
.273
262
961
144
978
Pliml
6,908
.292
210
945
204
1,054
Roberts
6,691
.277
248
1,007
90
986
Salfino
6,905
.274
276
1,049
139
1,076
Schechter
7,404
.283
245
1,058
172
1,144
Van Hook
7,400
.284
256
1,067
171
1,059
Projections by Team - Pitching Categories
Owner
IP
W
SV
ERA
WHIP
K
Behrens
1,211
69
66
4.11
1.22
1,132
Carroll
1,376
86
41
3.94
1.22
1,207
Cushing
1,261
75
32
4.50
1.35
1,099
Dennis
934
56
20
5.12
1.27
820
Gonos
1,251
80
64
3.91
1.24
1,170
Hoyos
1,185
69
53
4.25
1.28
1,009
Karabell
1,333
75
58
4.40
1.28
1,158
Kastner
1,452
87
54
4.22
1.27
1,219
Liss
1,228
74
95
4.03
1.23
1,096
Mack
1,375
84
72
4.27
1.28
1,274
Patton
720
39
84
4.26
1.24
560
Petera
1,191
74
53
3.96
1.28
1,019
Pliml
1,032
57
27
4.27
1.28
891
Roberts
1,313
77
40
3.93
1.24
1,193
Salfino
1,270
75
43
4.22
1.35
1,034
Schechter
1,335
81
81
4.16
1.29
1,063
Van Hook
1,032
57
45
3.95
1.24
809
Projected Standings
Owner
H Pts
P Pts
Total Pts
Schechter
66
52
118
Van Hook
63
54.5
117.5
Behrens
46.5
52.5
99
Gonos
41
58
99
Karabell
62
34
96
Kastner
46.5
47
93.5
Dennis
65
28
93
Patton
40.5
52
92.5
Mack
49.5
39
88.5
Salfino
50
38
88
Hoyos
44
41
85
Liss
23.5
60.5
84
Petera
44
41
85
Roberts
32
49
81
Pliml
48
30.5
78.5
Carroll
20
56
76
Cushing
34.5
24
58.5
Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”. However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant. I’m sure if you asked them, many, if not all, of the 17 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team. Such is the nature of the beast.
Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:
At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so. This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction. Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup. I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.
Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings give a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction. Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!