The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

On Saturday, March 24th, I had the privilege of participating in my second Tout Wars mixed league auction (here’s the spreadsheet tracking that auction).  Rather than give a player-by-player recap of my auction (which would interest no one besides myself, and is almost a month out-of-date at this point), here are some observations I’d like to share based both on this auction and a number of others I participated in this spring:

• After two years of relative pitching dominance, the price of premium pitchers is dropping, especially in mixed league auctions.  Not a surprising result - when the supply of pitchers capable of helping your team in a meaningful way is increasing, but the demand is constant, then prices should drop, and that’s exactly what happened.  Clayton Kershaw was the only pitcher who went for $30, while Justin Verlander went for $27, and Roy Halladay went for $26.

• Surprisingly, the cost of elite hitters isn’t increasing.  When the supply of hitters capable of helping your team in a meaningful way is decreasing, but the demand is constant, then prices should increase.  However, Albert Pujols was the most expensive hitter, costing $43 - I believe last year he went for just under $50.  There were only 6-8 players who cracked the $40 mark.  So, if people were spending less than last year on both top hitters and top pitchers, where were they spending their money instead?

• Owners spent more of their hitting dollars on potential breakout players.  If you purchased Lucas Duda, Cameron Maybin, Brett Lawrie, Elvis Andrus, Eric Hosmer, or Jason Kipnis during an auction this spring, you probably spent more on them than you anticipated.  However, there were some exceptions to this observation, including Mat Gamel, Jose Altuve, and Chris Davis.  I guess I was just more bullish on the prospects of the players in the latter group than most of my peers.

• Owners were still willing to spend big on top closers.  If no money manager will ever be fired for buying IBM, the fantasy baseball auction strategy corollary is that no fantasy baseball team owner will be mocked for purchasing Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon.

• Owners were also willing to spend more money on potential closers.  Many fantasy owners take it as gospel that “Thou shalt not overspend on closers”.  Those who purchased Andrew Bailey, Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Matt Thornton, Kyle Farnsworth, and Drew Storen in auctions would wholeheartedly agree.  However, that certainly didn’t stop owners from speculating, perhaps even more than was prudent, on closers-in-waiting such as Vinnie Pestano and Addison Reed.

• Even in an expert league such as Tout Wars owners are naturally risk-averse, perhaps even exceedingly so.  Some players went for less than I thought they would because of injury concerns (e.g. - Kendry Morales, Johan Santana, Alex Rodriguez, and Kevin Youkilis).  Some went for less due to the fact they’re still unproven (e.g. - Mat Gamel).  Some went for less because they’re “old” (e.g. - Paul Konerko).  Some went for less due simply to the fact that they were horrible last season (e.g. - Adam Dunn).  I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if, barring injury, every player mentioned in this bullet ends up producing fantasy value far in excess of what their owner paid to acquire them for the 2012 season.

• Jump-bidding is a bad use of limited resources.  Some owners believe that by increasing the current high bid by more than a dollar or two (affectionately known among fantasy owners as “jump bidding”), they’ll send fellow owners a clear message to “back off”.  The only message this tactic sends is that you weren’t paying enough attention in your college economics class.  You may have deterred other owners from trumping your bid on Clayton Kershaw early in the auction, but when you end up filling your pitching staff with the likes of Jamie Moyer at the end of an auction, you’re team is in trouble before the season even begins.

• Having a planned strategy and a predetermined budget heading into an auction is a good idea, but being flexible and able to adapt your plan on the fly is even better.  Saying you’re not going to spend more than $20 on a starting pitcher is understandable, but if you stick to that position even when Roy Halladay is on the block, and the current high bid of $25 is $10 less than what you think the player is worth, unless they’re hiding an injury from the training staff, it’s worth making the adjustments to your roster in order to fit him in under your salary cap.

• Buy stats, not players.  Set targets by category before the auction starts, and monitor them like a hawk during the auction.  Many owners spend massive amounts of their brainpower during an auction tracking how much money each of their opponents has remaining, who has what roster needs remaining, and how will to keep in touch with them even after the auction.  I believe it’s far more important to track teams’ cumulative hitting points or starting points.  Let someone else obsess over which of the 300+ players that have already been purchased in the auction; you’ve got bigger fish to fry.

All of that aside, I prefer to think of an auction such as Tout Wars as an over-sized math problem rather than a referendum on my “player evaluation skills” - I’ll leave that to the professionals (scouts, that is).  How do you get the most points in your league, subject to the constraints of a salary cap, roster requirements by position, and overall roster size?  Who is going to make the shrewdest waiver wire pick-ups in the first month or two of the season?  Which owners are going to agree to the right trades at just the right time?

Until next time!

The Sherpa

Scott
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Hi everyone,

Today we have a guest blogger - Jason Trask.  Jason hails from Red Sox country, he’s the General Manager of the South Shore Baseball Club by day and an avid fantasy baseball league participant by night (sometimes very late at night).  He also has a beautiful 3-yr-old named Bailey, who will no doubt enjoy rooting for the Sox’ new closer this season.

Jason is currently participating in a slow mock draft with some fellow fantasy enthusiasts from Fantasy Baseball Cafe - here are his thoughts on the first three rounds of his draft (we’ll cover subsequent rounds in future posts).  Take it away, Jason!

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2012 Mock Draft #1

This is where it starts, the most wonderful time of year indeed. The reset buttons are hit and everyone brings their hopes and dreams of fantasy baseball glory to the forefront. Draft strategies are tested and mocked. Keepers are debated. Thousands of productive hours of work, sleep and family attention are lost. Now is when unproven talent can create debates rivaling the virtues of potential Republican Party candidates. The first signal flare of the 2012 Election season was launched with the Iowa Caucus. The first signal flare of the 2012 Fantasy Baseball season starts with mock drafting.  

My New Years’ Resolution? I don’t want this to be the launching pad that features me on A&E’s Intervention: Fantasy Baseball.

This is a 14 team 5×5 mixed snake draft with 23 active roster spots and 7 bench players.  I picked 13^th in the odd-numbered rounds and 2^nd in the even-numbered rounds.

Round 1

The first pick off the board was Albert Pujols. I can envision a park effect of going from hitting regularly against the Cubs, Pirates, Reds and Brewers (all hitters’ parks) to the spacious Oakland Coliseum and the two headed monster of King Felix and Michael Pineda in Seattle. Aside from that, there’s no one else I’d take in this position. Hanley being taken at the turn with 1.14 opened a few eyes, but with upcoming CI eligibility it could be a steal.

Best Picks

• Evan Longoria 1.12 I had hoped Longoria would fall to me with the next pick, but this is a solid pick for a deep league at a fairly thin position. Longoria battled some injury issues and suffered from some bad luck before turning it on in the second half.

Worst Picks

• Justin Upton 1.08 It’s hard to call this a “Worst” pick, when I had my eye on him at the end of the round. I think he went about 4 or 5 picks too soon. He made a sizable jump in production across the board, but I am not a fan of his supporting cast.

My Pick

• Jacoby Ellsbury 1.13 Longoria was taken with the prior pick so Ellsbury became my plan B. I do not expect him to match his HR totals, but he’s basically a lock for 200+ RBI/R and 30+ SB. I feel confident that I can make up the difference in HR in later rounds.

Round 2

No pitchers were taken in Round 1, so I expected a few of the SP horses to be grabbed here. Halladay and Kershaw went back to back with Verlander landing at 2.11. No Ryan Braun in Round 2, with Holliday/McCutchen ending the round after recent first rounders Jose Reyes and David Wright fell to the middle of round 2.

Best Pick

• Roy Halladay 2.07 There’s never a bad place to draft Doc. I was tempted to grab him early in Round 2. The last time we saw him he was outdueled by Chris Carpenter in the NLDS. Halladay’s the type that will be motivated for a monster year as a result.

Worst Pick

• Mike Stanton 2.09 A round early here for Stanton for me.  He has the upside, but needs to improve in BA and R. He’ll be a hot commodity in drafts going forward, but I still feel this is about 8 or 10 picks too early.

 My Pick

• Josh Hamilton 2.02 What Ellsbury can give in SB, Hamilton can reciprocate in HR. I almost went with Pedroia with this pick (he went next), but couldn’t turn away a chance to land another Top 5 OF here. I think last year was Hamilton’s floor and didn’t see much risk here after the turn.

Round 3

The SP trinity of VerKerDay all went in Round 2. 1B and OF led with 16 of the first 28 picks. Still no C or RP drafted, but SPs should be going quickly in the next couple of rounds.

Best Pick

• Carl Crawford 3.12 A regular Top 20 pick taken at the end of Round 3 could be one of the best picks of the draft. Another year in Boston should give him some comfort, but I worry about his SB totals. I don’t expect much more than 15 HR, but his other counting stats should revert back to norm.

Worst Pick

• Starlin Castro 3.07 Taken as the 4^th SS off the board in a deep draft, but aside from a high BA there’s not much else there to count on. He’s young, he’s got talent, but I worry about his ability to produce HR and RBI totals.

My Pick

• CC Sabathia 3.13 SPs were flying off the board at this point (Felix, Cliff Lee, Lincecum and Grienke) so I felt comfortable taking CC as an anchor here. A boring pick, but I’ll expect 18+ W, 200+K, and a reasonable WHIP and ERA to go with it.

If you’re interested on seeing the entire draft, check out the Google doc

Follow Jason on Twitter: @JTrask25

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More to come as Jason’s mock draft progresses,

The Sherpa

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With all the rumors flying around a week before the July 31st trade deadline (most of which will prove to be unfounded), predicting who will wind up where is particularly challenging.  Fantasy owners also need to be mindful of the potential impacts of these trades, not only on the players involved, but also on the other players affected for both teams in the deal.

The following is a list of players whose fantasy value is likely to increase or decrease significantly by July 31st:

1. Lucas Duda, 1B/OF, NYM (Increase) - Carlos Beltran is almost certain to be traded, and that should open up significant at-bats for this budding power-hitter.  He’ll play right field most days and occasionally spell David Murphy at first base.
2.  Kyle Blanks, 1B/OF, SD (Increase)- Ryan Ludwick is another outfielder rumored to be on the move to a team in search of some outfield power.  Trading Ludwick would open up left field for Blanks, which would in turn open up first base for teammate Jose Guzman.
3. Ryan Ludwick, OF, SD (Increase) - Speaking of Ludwick, his fantasy value would almost certainly increase if he were traded anywhere other than Cleveland.
4. Josh Willingham, OF, Oak (Increase) - ditto for Willingham, who must be counting down the days until he is traded from Oakland to a pennant contender (again, unless it’s Cleveland).
5. Mike Adams/Luke Gregerson, RP, SD (Increase) - Heath Bell is another player on the almost-certain-to-be-traded list - Adams is the likely successor as the Padres’ closer, unless the team decides to move him too.  If that happens, Gregerson is the most likely candidate to close.
6. Edward Mujica, RP, Fla (Increase) - Manager Jack McKeon has already stated that Mujica is his likely closer if Leo Nunez is traded.  The likelihood of Nunez being traded is anyone’s guess, but with so many contenders looking for bullpen help, I’d place the probability of that happening at ~75%.
7. Rich Harden, SP, Oak (Increase) - Sure, any team that trades for him knows that it’s assuming a sizable risk, but he’s the most talented starting pitcher thought to be available (sorry, Hideki Kuroda and Wandy Rodriguez).  Boston, which isn’t sure when Clay Buchholz is returning or what it will get from him when he does, is a likely destination, with Cincinnati, Cleveland, and to a lesser extent Arizona, also possibilities.
8. Yonder Alonso, 1B/OF, Cin (Increase) - He’s likely to be included in any deal the Reds make to shore up their rotation.  He’s a first baseman by trade but has been playing the outfield this season at Triple-A since he’s blocked by Joey Votto in Cincinnati.
9. Ian Desmond, SS, Was (Increase) - An Ian Desmond (and others) for B.J. Upton trade makes too much sense not too happen - both players could use a fresh start.  While Upton’s batting average likely wouldn’t rise after changing teams, Desmond’s would - he’s a much better hitter than he’s shown this season.  If anything, he’s been too patient at the plate, resulting in his getting behind in the count and expanding his strike zone.
10. Alex Presley, OF, Pit (Decrease) - If a rumored deal for Ludwick or Willingham takes place, Presley will most likely be the odd man out in spite of his play since his recent recall.  If given the choice between Jose Tabata and Presley as his third outfielder, manager Clint Hurdle will likely opt for Tabata.
11. Garrett Jones, 1B/OF, Pit (Decrease) - He’s in a similar situation to Presley, but Jones could still move to first base if the Pirates decide to cut ties with the disappointing Lyle Overbay.
12. Nate Schierholtz, OF, SF (Decrease) - Like Presley, he’s played well recently, but that won’t stop the offensively-challenged Giants from seeking an upgrade (read: Carlos Beltran).
13. J.J. Putz, Closer, Ari (Decrease) - If the Diamondbacks think they have a legitimate shot to catch the Giants in the NL West, it’s unlikely they’ll rely on David Hernandez and the injury-prone Putz to close out games for them.  An intradivision trade for Heath Bell is unlikely, but a trade with the Marlins for Leo Nunez would make a lot of sense.
14. Heath Bell, Closer, SD (Decrease) - Almost any team that trades for Bell would use him as a closer, but one that might not is Texas, which already has Neftali Feliz, even if he hasn’t been as dominant this season as last.
15. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, LAD (Decrease) - It’s easy to conclude that if Kuroda moved to a better team, his win total would go up.  However, wins are largely arbitrary, and almost any team he’d be traded to would have a less-spacious park than the Dodgers.
16. Roger Bernadina/Laynce Nix, OF, Was (Decrease) - If the rumored trade for B.J. Upton goes through, Bernadina will be bumped, and will probably split time with Nix in left field.

I’ve omitted Carlos Beltran, Wandy Rodriguez, and B.J. Upton from this list, even though they’re good candidates to be traded, because I don’t believe that a change of scenery will significantly affect their fantasy values.

The Sherpa

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With the season reaching the halfway point I figured it would be fun to take a look back to see who have been the most valuable fantasy baseball performers so far.  Justin Verlander and Matt Kemp have been two players grabbing a lot of headlines this season with their play, so it should come as little to no surprise that they rank first and second in the standard 5×5 mixed league format through yesterday’s games.  Here are the lists of the top ten hitters and pitchers through the games of Saturday, July 2nd (Total Sherpa Points based on a max of 5.00, which would be a player’s score if he led the league in all five hitting or pitching categories):

Top 10 Hitters

1. Matt Kemp (3.81) - 293 AB, .331 AVG, 22 HR, 63 RBI, 22 SB, 52 R
2. Adrian Gonzalez (3.42) - 327 AB, .352 AVG, 16 HR, 71 RBI, 1 SB, 56 R
3. Ryan Braun (3.42) - 299 AB, .321 AVG, 16 HR, 60 RBI, 19 SB, 57 R
4. Jose Reyes (3.38) - 344 AB, .352 AVG, 3 HR, 32 RBI, 30 SB, 65 R
5. Jose Bautista (3.24) - 261 AB, .326 AVG, 24 HR, 52 RBI, 5 SB, 61 R
6. Curtis Granderson (3.14) - 294 AB, .276 AVG, 21 HR, 56 RBI, 14 SB, 70 R
7. Miguel Cabrera (2.99) - 280 AB, .332 AVG, 17 HR, 56 RBI, 1 SB, 60 R
8. Prince Fielder (2.86) - 285 AB, .302 AVG, 21 HR, 69 RBI, 0 SB, 49 R
9. Paul Konerko (2.84) - 293 AB, .321 AVG, 21 HR, 61 RBI, 1 SB, 39 R
10. Jacoby Ellsbury (2.83) - 323 AB, .300 AVG, 9 HR, 40 RBI, 25 SB, 55 R

Granderson, Konerko, and (to a lesser extent) Ellsbury are the biggest surprises on this list - before the season you would have expected to see some combination of Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki, and David Wright taking up three of the spots in a season-to-date top ten list.  It will be interesting to see how much Jose Reyes’ latest injury affects both his fantasy value and his real-life trade value.

Top 10 Pitchers

1. Justin Verlander (3.93) - 135.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 2.32 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 130 K
2. Jared Weaver (3.42) - 123.1 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 1.97 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 106 K
3. Roy Halladay (3.33) - 127.1 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.40 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 123 K
4. James Shields (3.27) - 128.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.45 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 127 K
5. Cole Hamels (3.15) - 116.0 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.41 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 110 K
6. Cliff Lee (2.97) - 122.0 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 2.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 119 K
7. Clayton Kershaw (2.84) - 116.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 128 K
8. CC Sabathia (2.67) - 129.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.05 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 106 K
9. Dan Haren (2.65) - 116.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 98 K
10. David Price (2.52) - 118.0 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 3.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 116 K

Can’t say that any of the names on the pitchers’ list are a surprise except for James Shields.  Most people thought he would bounce back from a 2010 season that wasn’t as bad as his fantasy stats would indicate, but I don’t think anyone (or at least not anyone I know) predicted he would be a top ten pitcher at this point, much less a top five pitcher.  And fear not, Phillie fans - even without Roy Oswalt, your team still has plenty of pitching left to run away with the NL East and beat any team in either league in a playoff series.

Hope you’re enjoying your 4th of July holiday weekend!

The Sherpa

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Hi everyone,

Week 6-7 notable items:  a team throws a 1-hitter and loses.  Carlos Beltran hits three home runs in a game one day, then comes down with conjunctivitis (aka pink-eye) and misses a game the next day.  Jose Bautista continues to prove that last season was not a fluke, Andrew McCutchen allows Pirates’ manager Clint Hurdle to show who’s in charge, and Bartolo Colon becomes the center of a debate on something (stem cells) unrelated to his weight.  Jorge Posada missed a game with a bruised ego.  Mets’ owner Fred Wilpon trashes three of his team’s best players in a magazine interview, and Edinson Volquez trashes his teammates, earning himself a ticket from Cincinnati to Indianapolis.

Thoughts from Weeks 6-7

• Hurt Locker -Those hitting the DL the last couple of weeks included Grady Sizemore, Marlon Byrd, Vicente Padilla, Aroldis Chapman, John Lackey, Adam Lind, David Wright, Travis Hafner, Shane Victorino, Josh Johnson, Pedro Alvarez, Juan Uribe, Mark Teahen, Alex White, Jesse Litsch, Tyson Ross, Brandon McCarthy, Brian Roberts, Derrek Lee, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Rafael Soriano, Orlando Hudson, Ike Davis, Brandon Beachy, Julio Borbon, Hong-Chih Kuo, and Chris “The Pitcher” Young (out for the season).  Whew, I’m out of breath just from typing that list.
• Welcome to The Show! - Among those making their MLB debuts the last couple of weeks were Alan Dirks, Mike Wilson, Charlie Furbush, Ryan Adams, Ezequiel Carrera, Danny Duke, and Eric Thames.
• Welcome Back! - Franklin Gutierrez, Domonic Brown, Noland Reimold, Vance Worley, Dallas McPherson, Brandon Snyder, Fernando Martinez, Greg Gentry, Carlos Peguero, Justin Turner, Endy Chavez, Manny Burriss, and Doug Davis are among those who have returned to the majors after serving time in the minors.  Chase Utley, Roy Oswalt, Rafael Furcal, Andres Torres, Logan Morrison, Delmon Young, Carlos Ruiz, Zach Greinke, Ty Wigginton, Joey Devine, J.J. Hardy, and Jose Arredondo are among those who have returned from DL stints.
• Thanks for playing - better luck next time! - Among those who have been sent back to the minors within the last two weeks are Jeremy Jeffress, Jarrod Dyson, Armando “Almost Perfect” Galarraga, Juan Francisco, Tyler Colvin, Ramiro Pena, Chris Valaika, Ian Stewart, Ivan DeJesus, Mike Leake.  Scott Olson, Ryan Langerhans, Russell Branyan, and Milton Bradley are all looking for work, courtesy of their former teams.
• Closer roulette - Fernando Salas has wrested the St. Louis closing job away from Eduardo Sanchez, at least for the time being.  Jason Motte and Ryan Franklin are still long-shot candidates to close at some point this season too.  In Los Angeles Vicente Padilla’s absence creates an opportunity for Matt Guerrier, Kenley Jansen, and perhaps even Mike MacDougal (isn’t he a fossil by now?).  Brandon League looks like he’s on the ropes in Seattle, but with Jamey Wright, and possibly Jeff Gray, as alternatives, it looks like League will keep his job (good thing he doesn’t pitch in St. Louis).  In Toronto Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco are both treating the closer’s job like a hot potato, potentially creating an opportunity for Jason Frasor (or even Octavio Dotel) to step in.  Meanwhile in Baltimore Kevin Gregg somehow holds on to the 9th-inning duties even though his WHIP is higher than some closers’ ERA.  Koji Uehara, and possibly even Alberto “(Alleged) Killer” Simon will eventually get a shot at Gregg’s job.
• Role play - With recent injuries to outfielders Jason Heyward and Nate McLouth the Atlanta outfield is a mess.  Expect Eric Hinske, Joe Mather, and Jordan Schafer to split at-bats while the aforementioned duo are out.  Laynce Nix is making a strong case to take the Nationals’ left-field job away from Mike Morse.  Also in our nation’s capitol Wilson Ramos and Roger Bernadina are gaining the upper hand on Ivan Rodriguez and Rick Ankiel, respectively, for playing time.  With both David Wright and Ike Davis out for the Mets Daniel Murphy has slid over to first base, Justin Turner is getting most of the starts at second, and a cast of thousands is rotating through third base.  Sticking with the “Amazins” Ronny Paulino is doing his best to win the starting catching job from Josh Thole.  With Jorge Posada’s recent meltdown in the Bronx you have to wonder if the Yankees are mulling the possibility of bringing up Jesus Montero, especially if the team continues its recent slide.  In Seattle the recent return of Franklin Gutierrez means that Michael Saunders, Mike Wilson, and Carlos Peguero are essentially competing for one outfield spot.  With Magglio Ordonez out in Detroit Brennan Boesch should see regular playing time, but also keep an eye on Don Kelly, Casper Wells, and rookie Andy Dirks.  In Baltimore J.J. Hardy’s return and Ryan Adams’ call-up suggest that Robert Andino will find playing time hard to come by.  Mark Teahen’s absence in Chicago may give Dallas McPherson a few at-bats, but if you think that this two-outcome player is going to morph into the consistent hitter people were expecting him to be five years ago, you’ll be sadly mistaken.

Strategy Corner

• Calling all offers -  Many fantasy team owners looking to make a trade will put out a blanket statement to the league to the effect of “I’m looking to acquire a power-hitter, and I’m willing to trade Koyie Hill or Mitch Maier to get him - make me an offer.”  While the “hit me up” approach can save an owner time and potentially result in multiple offers, generally you’re not going to get the best value in return if you leave it to others to initiate trade talks.  It takes time that many of you understandably feel you don’t have, but reviewing the rosters of fellow league owners for potential trade candidates can actually save you a lot of time (i.e. - you won’t waste time fending off silly trade offers).  Many negotiators always advise students to “let the other side make the first offer”, and that’s sound advice for many things in life, but not necessarily in fantasy baseball.  Making the initial offer to a busy fellow owner may have the advantage of determining the benchmark for any counteroffers.  At the risk of stating the obvious, never succumb to pressure in the form of “You’re always afraid to pull the trigger - no wonder you never improve your team!” - walking away from an offer you’re not happy with is always a sound strategy.

• To waive or not to waive - Every year without fail a number of star players get off to slow starts.  We’re not talking mere slumps here, we’re talking “Are they done?  How could I have spent a high pick on that turkey?” bad.  Examples this year include Carl Crawford and Chris Carpenter (maybe it’s the initials?).  It’s tempting in these situations to “cut the loser” and pick up a player who’s off to a better start (e.g. - Sam Fuld, Dillon Gee).  Yet doingso is almost always the wrong decision.  Unless you truly have a better option, or, as in the case of a struggling pitcher, you suspect he’s hurt, your “best alternative” is hardly ever a better player than the slumping star.  Remember that in another week when the top minor league players start arriving.

• Anticipation - Speaking of impending minor league call-ups, the unofficial “Super Two” deadline is right around the corner.  It’s the first of several dates during the season when a batch of “fresh meat” is likely to hit your league’s waiver wire (unless you’re in a keeper league, in which case these highly-touted prospects may have been scooped up months, if not years ago).  The July 31st trading deadline is another important date, as is late August (the deadline for MLB playoff rosters to be set).  Some factors to consider in figuring out whether to make room on your roster for these potential stars:
  • Is your league a redraft league or a dynasty league?  It obviously makes much more sense to take chances in the latter format.
  • Does your league use rotisserie or head-to-head style scoring?  Even highly-touted rookies almost inevitably struggle early on in their MLB careers (e.g. - Jerry Sands) - those struggles carry a much smaller penalty in a head-to-head format.
  • Do you have bench spots in your league?  If so, great - go ahead and take a chance.  However, if you don’t, be careful of falling into the “anybody’s better than the player I have now” trap, because that’s usually not the case.
  • Do you have to start players the week you pick them up?  If so, and you’re involved in a close race in your league, think long and hard about doing this.  Rookies rarely play every day, so make sure you can tolerate a string of zeros in your team’s box score.
  • Does your league allow daily lineup changes?  If it does, go ahead and take a chance - if you find out on a given day that your rookie isn’t playing, then simply swap him out of your starting lineup (assuming you have a bench).  If not, ask yourself how much competition that player has from other players currently on his team’s roster.  Anticipated June 1 call-ups to keep an eye on next week include Brett Lawrie, Mike Moustakas, and Lonnie Chisenhall - for some reason it appears that most of this year’s rookie impact bats are likely to be in the American League.

Wrapping up

• 2011 marks the second season that I’m writing a weekly entry for Fantasy Windup, Steve Gardner’s fantasy baseball blog on USAToday.com.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week.  My entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like me to cover in future posts, please send in a note with your suggestion(s)!

• Baseball season ends in September, not in May!  If you’re not already a subscriber to the Sherpa’s In-season Updates, you owe it to yourself to sign up today!  Use this state-of-the-art tool to guide your roster moves, set your lineup, and help you evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  We currently have 815 players in the database and will be adding more as the season progresses.  The remainder-of-season forecasts are updated daily for every player and reflect just about any move an MLB team can make (minor league call-ups, DL moves, batting order changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, suspensions, and other roster moves).  You can even customize these forecasts to reflect your league’s scoring categories!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

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Hi everyone,

We’re back after an unexcused absence last week.  What’s been going on since our last newsletter a couple of weeks ago?  Francisco Liriano and Justin Verlander threw no-hitters; Anibal Sanchez just missed his second of the year, and Jaime Garcia also had a near miss.  Sanchez and Garcia are just two of many young pitchers showing their impressive stuff early this season; that group also includes Justin Masterson, Zach Britton, Bud Norris, and Brandon Beachy.  With so many pitchers pitching so well it’s remarkable Andre Ethier managed a 30-game hitting streak.

Thoughts from Weeks 4 & 5

• Hurt locker - Those who’ve hit the DL in the past two weeks include Nelson Cruz, Pablo Sandoval, Roy Oswalt, David Freese, Delmon Young, Jonathan Broxton, Carlos Ruiz, Brandon Lyon, Ty Wigginton, Nyjer Morgan, and Eric Chavez.  Joe Mauer, Ryan Zimmerman, and Kendry Morales are all expected to be sidelined longer than originally anticipated.
• Welcome to The Show! - Eric Hosmer is by far the biggest name to make his MLB debut recently; that group also includes Alex White, Julio Teheran, Ben Revere, Rene Tomasoni, and Brandon Guyer.
• Welcome back!  - Neftali Feliz, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto, Aaron Hill, Clint Barmes, Ian Stewart, Maicer Izturis, Hong-Chih Kuo, Jay Gibbons, Allen Craig, Ronny Paulino, and Michael Wuertz have all returned from DL stints of varying lengths.  Scott Sizemore, Dillon Gee, Russell Mitchell, and Craig Gentry have all returned to the majors from the minor leagues.
• Thanks for playing - better luck next time!  - Julio Teheran and Brandon Guyer deserve special mention here - they were both called up for a day before being shipped back to the minors.  Kila Ka’aihue, Will Rhymes, Taylor Teagarden, Mike Nickeas, A.J. Ellis, and Felipe Lopez can now be found starring (hopefully) at a minor league park near you.  The Mariners have designated both Milton Bradley and Ryan Langerhans for assignment.  I guess they feel they can lose just as easily with younger, cheaper players as they can with older, more expensive players.
• Closer roulette - Neftali Feliz has returned to reclaim the closer’s role in Texas.  Mark Melancon has taken over for the injured Brandon Lyon in Houston, and Vicente Padilla (?!?) has taken over for the injured Jonathan Broxton in Los Angeles.  Fernando Salas is the latest flavor of the month for Tony La Russa and the Cardinals - perhaps that’s explained by TLR’s vision (or lack thereof).  Kyle Farnsworth in Tampa, Sergio Santos in Chicago, Brian Fuentes in Oakland, Matt Capps in Minnesota, and Ryan Madson in Philadelphia have all solidified their grips on their respective teams’ closer roles.
• Role play - Conor Jackson and Ryan Sweeney are seeing more time at the expense of Hideki Matsui, Josh Willingham, and Daric Barton in Oakland.  Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto have returned to the Reds’ rotation; Sam LeCure and Mike Leake have taken up residence in Cincinnati’s bullpen - Travis Wood has survived the changes and remains in the rotation (for now).  With Nelson Cruz on the DL in Texas Mitch Moreland shifts to the outfield, opening up at-bats at first base for Chris Davis.  Given that Davis is a switch-hitter and the Rangers just sent Taylor Teagarden down to the minors again, Mike Napoli won’t pose much of a threat to Davis if the latter hits well.  Brandon Wood has been playing almost every day in Pittsburgh, filling in for the injured Pedro Alvarez at third and the ineffectual Ronny Cedeno at shortstop.  David Freese will miss several months for the Cardinals, but Allen Craig won’t necessarily get much playing time at third - look for some combination of Daniel Descalso, Nick Punto, and perhaps even Tyler Greene in Freese’s absence.  Daniel Murphy has maintained his playing time edge over Justin Turner at second base for the Mets, while Jason Pridie continues to be the primary beneficiary of Angel Pagan’s continued absence.  Robert Andino’s run as the Orioles’ regular shortstop (more or less) will come to an end when J.J. Hardy returns from the DL this week.  Wilson Ramos continues to take more and more of the playing time at catcher away from Ivan Rodriguez for the Nats.  Finally, Raul Ibanez shows signs of shaking his slump for the Phillies, but expect John Mayberry to get more at-bats going forward.  Ibanez’ continued struggles almost guarantee that Ben Francisco will see at least semi-regular at-bats even after Domonic Brown returns from his rehab assignment in the minors.

Strategy Corner

• Mound presents - Clearly, if your team’s pitchers are the primary cause of your team’s disappointing performance so far this season, the answer must be . . . add more pitchers???  Yes, that’s right.  Assuming that you don’t have any absolute clunkers on  your staff (Joe Saunders and Kyle Davies come to mind), one possible course of strategy is to employ the “set ‘em and forget ‘em” approach with your hitters, then use all available bench spots on starting pitchers.  Then choose your starting pitchers each week based on who has the most favorable matchup(s).  Don’t be worried about starting a guy with “lousy peripherals” if he’s got a favorable matchup or two during the upcoming week, especially if you play in a head-to-head league.
• Minor developments - Most hard-core baseball fans were already familiar with Eric Hosmer, Ben Revere, and Julio Teheran well before they were called up, but how do you spot the next Jerry Sands (or any other player who takes the minor leagues by storm after not receiving a ton of hype in the preseason)?  My favorite source for minor league stats is the official site of minor league baseball - you can easily identify league leaders for the International and Pacific Coast Leagues (as well as the Mexican League, if you’re interested).
• Beyond BABIP - While we’re on the subject of great statistical sources, if you don’t already use Fangraphs, you should definitely become familiar with this site.  Suppose you’ve noticed that Hanley Ramirez has a batting average that’s hovering around the Mendoza Line and a correspondingly awful batting average on balls in play (BABIP).  Are pitchers pitching him differently?  Is he swinging at more balls outside of the strike zone?  Is he hitting fewer line drives and more ground balls?  Use Fangraphs to look at the underlying data and draw your own conclusions.  For example, if you had looked at Derek Jeter’s Fangraphs profile in the middle of last season, you would have seen clearly that his low BABIP was driven by a disturbing increase at the number of pitches outside of the strike zone he was swinging at, which made the resulting large increase in ground ball percentage much easier to understand.  Similar analyses can be performed for pitchers.

Wrapping up

• 2011 marks the second season that I’m writing a weekly entry for Fantasy Windup, Steve Gardner’s fantasy baseball blog on USAToday.com.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week.  My entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like me to cover in future posts, please send in a note with your suggestion(s)!

• Baseball season ends in September, not in May!  If you’re not already a subscriber to the Sherpa’s In-season Updates, you owe it to yourself to sign up today!  Use this state-of-the-art tool to guide your roster moves, set your lineup, and help you evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  We currently have 790 players in the database and will be adding more as the season progresses.  The remainder-of-season forecasts are updated daily for every player and reflect just about any move an MLB team can make (minor league call-ups, DL moves, batting order changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, suspensions, and other roster moves).  You can even customize these forecasts to reflect your league’s scoring categories!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

Week 3 featured . . . the weather wreaking havoc with the schedule.  In between the raindrops Cardinals’ manager Tony La Russa demonstrated that he’s a better meteorologist than Reds’ counterpart Dusty Baker.    Boston “finally” started winning, and things began to return to “normal” in Red Sox Nation.  Ryan Braun signed an ill-advised five-year contract extension, making him an even richer man.  The Marlins’ pitchers seemed to take a potential no-hitter late into games almost every night, but Hanley Van Winkle Ramirez has yet to awaken from his winter slumber.  Finally, Roy Halladay capped off a week of sterling pitching performances with your typical 14-strikeout game (yawn).

Thoughts from Week 3

• Hurt locker - Neftali Feliz, Victor Martinez, Logan Morrison, Angel Pagan, Dallas Braden, Aaron Hill, Scott Rolen, Nyjer Morgan, Jose Contreras, Jayson Nix, Juan Francisco, Skip Schumaker, and Allen Craig were among those who hit the DL this week.  Albert Pujols suffered a “minor hamstring strain” in Sunday night’s game, and is expected to miss several days, but he’ll apparently be able to avoid the DL.  Kendry Morales’ return date keeps getting pushed back further and further.

• Welcome to The Show! - Jerry Sands and Carlos Peguero were the most notable names among those who made their major league debuts this week.

• Welcome back! - Brandon Morrow and Jason Bay made their 2011 regular season debuts after returning from the DL.  Others returning after DL stints included Ubaldo Jimenez, Frank Francisco, Erick Aybar, Cody Ross, LaTroy Hawkins, Ryan Perry, and Nick Punto.  Chris Valaika, Jason Pridie, Mark Hamilton, Jeremy Hermida, and Jason Turner all returned to the big leagues after biding their time in the minors.  Special mention goes out to Brandon Wood, who was designated for assignment by the Angels, traded to the Pirates, and brought back up to the majors within the week.

• Thanks for playing; better luck next time! - Among those sent back to the minors this week were Ian Stewart, Brett Cecil, Jesus Flores, and George Kottaras.  But Brandon Belt’s demotion takes the cake (so to speak) - he was sent down on his 23rd birthday  (hey kid, we got you a birthday cake - sorry you aren’t here any more to enjoy it with us).  Honorable mention goes to Brad Emaus, whom the Mets selected last winter from Toronto during the Rule 5 draft; after being designated for assignment by the Mets Emaus was traded to the Rockies.  Unfortunately, Emaus’ story doesn’t end as happily as Brandon Wood’s (see previous bullet) - he was promptly sent down to the minors by the Rockies.

• Closer roulette - Things were relatively quiet on the closer front during the week, but then picked up unexpectedly over the weekend.  In St. Louis Mitchell Boggs seems to be adapting quickly to the closer’s role, as he finished the week with 3 saves.  Eduardo Sanchez appears to have moved ahead of Jason Motte for the time being in the pecking order, and thankfully Miguel Batista isn’t likely to pitch in a 9th inning anytime soon unless he’s performing mop-up duty.  Go ahead and discard Ryan Franklin - unlike Joe Nathan, Franklin has no realistic shot to regain the closer role in the foreseeable future.  The weekend injury bug bit first in Texas, where Neftali Feliz will be replaced by a committee that includes Darren Oliver, Arthur Rhodes, and perhaps even Darren O’Day.  Next, Jose Contreras was bitten by the bug - Ryan Madson inherits the closer job in South Philly with Antonio Bastardo available on days when Madson isn’t.  Madson has had a number of high profile meltdowns before as a closer, so Bastardo is a decent hedge.  Only time will tell whether Madson truly has “the right stuff”, or if he’s cut from the same cloth as Rafael Betancourt and LaTroy Hawkins (i.e. - great setup men who, for whatever reason, failed repeatedly when given the chance to close).  Drew Storen has solidified his hold on the Nationals’ 9th-inning duties.  Since the White Sox have lost 10 out of their last 11 it isn’t apparent whether Matt Thornton still has his job as the closer.  Even if he does, it appears to be just a matter of time before Chicago gives Sergio Santos a shot - he makes a good speculative pickup if he’s still available in your league.

• Role play - Daniel Murphy appears to be the chief beneficiary of Emaus’ departure, although Jason Turner may also be given a shot at regular at-bats.  Brett Gardner is slumping horribly against all types of pitching; expect Andruw Jones to gain more playing time while Gardner figures things out.  Curtis Granderson continues to build on the improvements he made during the second half of last season, but I’m a skeptic - he makes an excellent sell high candidate if you can find a taker.  Cody Ross will get most of the playing time that Brandon Belt left behind.  Ryan Raburn and Michael Cuddyer have both been receiving playing time at second base recently - Cuddyer’s almost certainly gone already in competitive leagues, but Raburn may still be available.  Jerry Sands was ostensibly brought up to clear up the Dodgers’ mess in left field, but if James Loney continues to struggle don’t be surprised if Sands settles in as the everyday first baseman.  The Reds brought up Chris Valaika, but it appears to be Nick Punto who will see the biggest increase in playing time with both Scott Rolen and Juan Francisco out.

Strategy corner

• Early season call-ups - a dilemma that fantasy owners often find themselves faced with early in the season is how to deal with call-ups (either real or anticipated) of big-time prospects.  Do you spend your money now on a Jerry Sands or save your money in hopes that a Julio Teheran, Jesus Montero, Desmond Jennings, or Mike Trout will be called up in early June after the Super 2 deadline has passed?  I’m definitely in the “bird in hand is worth two in the bush” school of thought.  First, there’s not guarantee the prospects who aren’t up yet are going to perform well enough to merit a call-up.  Second, even if they do, chances are that multiple people in  your league will also be hanging on to their FAAB money or waiver priority for the same player(s) you’re interested in waiting for.  Third, and most importantly, the earlier in the season you get someone on your roster, the more of a chance that player has to make a meaningful difference (hopefully in a good way) on your team’s results for the season.  If you’re in a league that uses weekly scoring periods (i.e. - no carryover impact from one week to the next), then it makes sense to spend your FAAB budget roughly evenly throughout the season because a player’s impact on your team’s results is proportional to how many weeks are left in the season when you pick him up.  However, if that isn’t the case (i.e. - you use a season-long scoring period), then the later in the season you pick up a player, the more difficult it becomes for him to make a meaningful difference in your average-based categories.

• Anticipating propsect call-ups - Last week I got lucky in one of my leagues and picked up Jerry Sands for $5 (annual FAAB budget is $100) the day before he was called up.  There were no other bids on Sands, so at first I was kicking myself for wasting $5 ($0 bids are allowed).  However, if that same player had been called up two days earlier, he undoubtedly would have gone for much more than $5 in our weekly FAAB bidding.  How do you know when a prospect is about to be called up, especially if it’s not late May/early June or late August/early September?  Take a close look at the team in question.  The Dodgers think of themselves as a playoff contender this season, so they felt motivated to make a move in an effort to get more production from their offense.  That goal outweighed whatever financial benefits they would have gained by calling Sands up after the Super 2 deadline.  Conversely, a similar situation has developed in Kansas City but is being handled differently.  Kila Ka’aihue has been a disaster, and “can’t miss” prospect Eric Hosmer has been denting scoreboards in Triple-A.  Still, the Royals know that in spite of their hot start this year that they don’t have realistic playoff expectations, so it makes little sense for them to “rush” Hosmer.  There are always exceptions - the Giants held off on calling up Buster Posey last year, and it almost cost them a playoff spot.  Several years ago the Devil Rays called up Evan Longoria in early May.  However, there were mitigating circumstances in both cases.    The Giants had a veteran catcher (Bengie Molina) whom they’d just spent pretty good money on in free agency - they eventually traded him to Texas.  The Rays were campaigning very publicly to get a new stadium built for their team, and they wanted to put the best possible players on the field to sway public opinion in their favor.  See?  Things are never as simple as they appear to be.

• DL spots  - If you’re in a league that allows roster moves 24/7 or daily, stop a minute the next time you want to dump a player from your current roster and pick up another one.  Instead of making the add and drop simultaneously, first drop the offending player, then pick up a desirable player who’s currently on the DL (assuming you currently have unused DL spots).  Once you’ve picked up the player on the DL, move him to your team’s DL.  If you still have DL spots remaining, repeat as necessary.  Once you’ve filled all your DL spots pick up the player you would have added if you’d done a straight add-drop initially.  If you’re doing this with multiple players two guidelines apply: (1) only pick up the DL’d player if you’d also pick him up if he were healthy and available.  No sense in wasting a DL spot on Trevor Crowe unless you’re in a 30-team AL-only league, and even then maybe not (2) stagger the expected return dates of your DL’d player if possible.  If you pick up only guys that are due back much later in the season (e.g. - Johan Santana), you just make it more likely you’ll have to drop one of those players the next time a player on your current active roster needs to go on the DL.

Wrapping up

• 2011 marks the second season that I’m writing a weekly entry for Fantasy Windup, Steve Gardner’s fantasy baseball blog on USAToday.com.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week.  My entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like me to cover in future posts, please send in a note with your suggestion(s)!

• Baseball season ends in September, not in April.  If you’re not already a subscriber to the Sherpa’s In-season Updates, you owe it to yourself to sign up today!  Use this state-of-the-art tool to guide your roster moves, set your lineup, and help you evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  We currently have 750 players in the database and will be adding more as the season progresses.  The remainder-of-season forecasts are updated daily for every player and reflect just about any move an MLB team can make (minor league call-ups, DL moves, batting order changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, suspensions, and other roster moves).  You can even customize these forecasts to reflect your league’s scoring categories!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

Week 2 featured plenty of stars hitting the DL, and the usual mid-April statistical anomalies.  When else would you find the Indians and Royals tied for first place, or several of the league-leaders in home runs on the waiver wire?  Dan Haren and Jared Weaver are both on pace to become the first 30-game winners since Denny McClain in the late 1960s.  Zach Britton, Jed Lowrie, and David Murphy are flying off waiver wires.  The Mets’ tragic number is already down to 2, or so it seems.  Last, and certainly not least, Barry Bonds was acquitted on all counts except for a federal obstruction of justice charge - your taxpayer dollars at work!

Thoughts from Week 2

• Hurt locker - Josh Hamilton, Ryan Zimmerman, and Joe Mauer were the biggest names to hit the DL last week, but certainly not the only ones.  Rajai Davis, Rafael Furcal, and Chris “The Pitcher” Young all joined them, as did many others.  Meanwhile, Jason Bay, Kendry Morales, and Brian Matusz all look like they’re going to be out longer than originally expected.
•  Welcome to The Show! - Eduardo Sanchez, a reliever for the Cardinals, made the most dramatic debut last week, striking out 8 of the first 9 major league hitters he faced.  In spite of the fact that Tony La Russa won the 2006 World Series with a rookie closer (Adam Wainwright), The Genius has yet to name Sanchez his new closer (see below middle C).  Also, a belated acknowledgement of Michael Pineda’s great start to his major league career.
• Welcome back! - Corey Patterson, Jeff Francis, Casey Blake, Conor Jackson, Chris Davis, Casey Kotchman, Ryota Igarashi, and Jason Isringhausen are among those who have returned to the big leagues after stints in the minors or on the DL.
• Thanks for playing; better luck next time!  The Braves have already seen enough of Mike Minor, sending him back down to the minor leagues.  After all, that is where he belongs, doesn’t he?  Brandon Allen is the odd man out in the struggle for 1B/OF playing time in Arizona.
• Closer roulette - Most of this week’s exciting closer news comes to us courtesy of the Great Midwest.  In Minnesota Joe Nathan went to manager Ron Gardenhire and didn’t have too much trouble convincing him that Matt Capps is better suited for the closer’s role, at least for the time being.  In St. Louis Ryan Franklin blew his fourth save in five tries this season, which convinced even Tony La Russa to give someone else a chance.  Problem is, at least from the perspective of fantasy baseball team owners, that La Russa has yet to announce a replacement.  Likely candidates include Mitchell Boggs and Jason Motte.  Less likely, but still possible candidates include Miguel Batista (really?!?), Eduardo Sanchez (see above), and yes, even Ryan Franklin.  Matt Lindstrom and Drew Storen picked up stray saves for Colorado and Washington, respectively, but chances are that Huston Street and Sean Burnett don’t have anything to worry about, at least not yet.  No new news to report with the White Sox, Blue Jays, and Rays’ closer situations.
• Role play - Jed Lowrie seems on the verge of taking over the Red Sox’ starting shortstop assignment for good (in both senses of the phrase) from Marco Scutaro.  In a more questionable decision manager Terry Francona has dropped the offensively-challenged Carl Crawford from first to seventh in the batting order and promoted J.D. Drew to the lead-off spot.  Over/under on the number of games that arrangement will last:  2.5.  Julio Borbon got a reprieve of sorts thanks to Josh Hamilton’s injury; David Murphy has taken over Hamilton’s spot instead of Borbon’s.  Ryan Roberts is making the most of Melvin Mora’s absence in Arizona, while Russell Branyan is apparently hitting well enough (or at least often enough) for manager Kirk Gibson to keep scrawling Branyan’s name on the lineup card.  Drew Butera is the main beneficiary of Joe Mauer’s absence, but no, that doesn’t make him worth owning, even in deep AL-only leagues.

Strategy corner

• It’s never too early to be thinking about trades that can help improve your roster.  No, you don’t want to trade Carl Crawford for Darwin Barney, but if someone proposes a trade that seems reasonable to you on the surface, how do you evaluate it?  It’s easier if it’s a trade involving the same number of players from each team and/or it’s a swap involving players at the same position.  However, what if it’s not - how do you analyze the deal then?  The key is not to evaluate the proposed trade as Roy Halladay for Albert Pujols in a vacuum.  Who would take Roy Halladay’s spot in your starting lineup, and how much of a drop-off would that represent?  Who would Albert Pujols replace in your starting lineup, and how much of an upgrade would that represent?  If Albert Pujols sends Adam LaRoche to the bench, but you wind up having to replace Halladay with Joe Saunders, you may want to decline that offer, even though it’s understandably difficult to say no to someone who offers you Albert Pujols.  Caveat emptor!
• If you’re someone who likes to stream pitchers and/or pick up pitchers when they have two starts in the upcoming week, don’t waste too much time evaluating the relative merits of the available pitchers - chances are that the differences aren’t that great.  The item you want to focus on instead is the upcoming matchups for the pitchers involved.  If Waiver Wire Pitcher A faces the Yankees and the Rangers in the week ahead, while Waiver Wire Pitcher B faces the Royals and the Mariners, the choice is clear.  If it’s not that one-sided comparison, throw darts at the wall, consult a psychic, or have your newborn pick one out - you’re merely guessing at that point and hoping for the best.
• When deciding between two available players on the waiver wire, position eligibility is a factor that’s often overlooked.  Sure, Orlando Hudson may be a more desirable pickup than Jose Lopez, but when you factor in the fact that Lopez is eligible at multiple positions, the comparison isn’t so clear.  However, even if Lopez is eligible at multiple positions, if you’ve already got three other players on your active roster who play Lopez’ “second position”, you’re really not gaining anything if you pick him based on his eligibility at multiple position.  If that’s the case, trust your gut and go with the “better” player.

Wrapping up

• 2011 marks the second season that I’m writing a weekly entry for Fantasy Windup, Steve Gardner’s fantasy baseball blog on USAToday.com.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week.  My entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like me to cover in future posts, please send in a note with your suggestion(s)!

• Baseball season ends in September, not in April.  If you’re not already a subscriber to the Sherpa’s In-season Updates, you owe it to yourself to sign up today!  Use this state-of-the-art tool to guide your roster moves, set your lineup, and help you evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  We currently have 750 players in the database and will be adding more as the season progresses.  The remainder-of-season forecasts are updated daily for every player and reflect just about any move an MLB team can make (minor league call-ups, DL moves, batting order changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, suspensions, and other roster moves).  You can even customize these forecasts to reflect your league’s scoring categories!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

With (extended) Week 1 of the baseball season in the books it’s time for a look back at the highlights and not-so-highlights from teams’  first 8-9 games.  Manny Ramirez decided to retire rather than face the music created by another positive drug test.  Willie Bloomquist and Sam Fuld were busy stealing bases.  Alex Gordon and Ryan Howard were off to fast starts; Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer were not.  Texas, led by Nelson Cruz and Ian Kinsler’s home run bashing, couldn’t lose, while Boston and Tampa couldn’t win.  What’s noise, and what do you need to be concerned about, even though we’re just 6% into the season?

Thoughts from Week 1

• Hurt locker -  Stephen Strasburg and Johan Santana are still on the shelf from injuries sustained last season.  Adam Wainwright, Domonic Brown, Brad Lidge,  and Chase Utley were all bitten by the injury bug in Spring Training.  At least Matt Holliday’s and Adam Dunn’s appendixes (appendices?) waited until after Opening Day to cause distress.  Other notable names already on the DL:  Evan Longoria, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, J.J. Hardy, and Corey Hart.  Fantasy baseball is becoming more and more like fantasy football’s war of attrition every season.

• Welcome to The Show! -Those making their major league debuts during the season’s first week included Brandon Belt, Zach Britton, Brad Emaus, Marco Estrada, and Casey Coleman.  There will be many more following in their footsteps - there should be a number of potential “impact players” (especially in the American League) making their debuts after the “Super 2″ deadline has passed.

• Welcome back! - Joe Nathan is the biggest name (among those who missed all or most of last season) who returned during Week 1.  Others included Chris “The Pitcher” Young, Erik Bedard, and yes, even Bartolo Colon.

• Thanks for playing:  better luck next time life! - The final episode of the “Manny Being Manny” show came and went suddenly - no word on whether the offending substance was another fertility drug.  In addition to leaving his teammates in the lurch Manny likely dashed any chances he had of being elected to the Hall of Fame on the first or any subsequent ballot.

• Closer roulette - It didn’t take long for Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia to decide he’d seen enough of the Fernando Rodney Horror Show and replace his struggling closer with Jordan Walden.  Fantasy owners who scooped Walden off the waiver wire last week obviously hope this is a permanent change, but don’t count on it.  Ryan Franklin has already blown 3 saves for St. Louis, but Tony La Russa has done nothing to suggest he’s going to make a change, other than speculate that Miguel Batista would probably be a better candidate to close than either Jason Motte or Mitchell Boggs.  Houston’s Brandon Lyon is also off to a shaky start, but Wilton Lopez is ailing, and Mark Melancon seems like an afterthought at this point (although that could change quickly).  In Washington Sean Burnett has postponed the start of the Drew Storen Closing Era for at least a few weeks.  White Sox’ manager Ozzie Guillen has announced that Matt Thornton will have to share save opportunities with Chris Sale, Sergio Santos, Jesse Crain, and the clubhouse attendants.  Kyle Farnsworth seems to have earned Rays’ manager Joe Maddon’s trust, at least until Jake McGee, Joel Peralta, or the currently-injured J.P. Howell wrest it away from him.  Oakland’s Brian Fuentes, Toronto’s Jon Rauch, and Philadelphia’s Jose Contreras have all stepped into the closer’s role for their respective teams due to injuries.

• Role play - Tampa Bay’s Sam Fuld, Matt Joyce, Sean Rodriguez, and Dan Johnson all stand to benefit from Manny Ramirez’ departure.  Johnson’s already reclaimed his uniform #24 that he gave up when Manny was signed.  Allen Craig filled in nicely for Matt Holliday while the latter was out losing weight by having his appendix removed.  Luke Hughes should get the majority of starts at second for the Twins while Nishioka is out.  It’s only a matter of time before David Murphy supplants Julio Borbon in the Rangers’ lineup.  Jorge Cantu is now in a semi-platoon with Brad Hawpe at first base for the Padres, and Mark Teahen is filling in at DH for the White Sox while Adam Dunn recovers from having his appendix removed (didn’t realize that was contagious).

Strategy Corner

• It’s never too early to start assessing your roster’s strengths and weaknesses in preparation for making potential trade offers.  The sooner you act, the more time you’ll have to make up ground in the standings.  Of course the caveat is not to overreact to abnormally good/bad starts (e.g. - don’t go trading away Albert Pujols for Sam Fuld, or even Alex Gordon).

• Unless you’re playing in an “only” league, it makes no sense whatsoever to horde your Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) money.  If you’re in a mixed league, unless you’re playing in a league with weekly scoring periods, it becomes disproportionately harder to make up ground in the non-counting categories (e.g. - AVG, ERA, WHIP) as the season goes on.  Which is just an unnecessarily complicated way of saying a bird in hand is worth two in the bush.  Or something like that.  Plan your FAAB spending accordingly.

• One of the trickiest decisions a fantasy team owner has to make is how to allocate their bench spots.  Should they be split evenly between hitters and pitchers?  Should the manager just aim to fill these spots with the proverbial “best available player”?  Should they try to cover all the positions with their benchwarmers?  Another idea, although perhaps not as common as those previously listed, is to allocate most of the bench spots to starting pitchers.  Not only does this strategy make it easier to cover injuries (which is particularly important in an “only” league), but it also allows you to take advantage of favorable pitching matchups and pitchers with two starts in a given period.  Unless you’re subject to an innings pitched cap, you should absolutely take advantage of the opportunity such a strategy provides.

Wrapping Up

• Once again I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USAToday.com’s fantasy baseball blog, edited by Steve Gardner.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week.  The entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like me to cover in future entries, send us a note with your suggestion!

•  If you’re not already a subscriber to the Sherpa’s In-season Updates, you owe it to yourself to sign up today!  Use this state-of-the-art tool to guide your roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  We currently have over 700 players in the database and will be adding more as the season progresses.  The remainder-of-season forecasts are updated daily for every player and reflect just about any move an MLB team can make (minor league call-ups, DL moves, batting order changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves).  Sign up today and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week!

The Sherpa

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Hi everyone!  My last two blog entries featured my team hitting and team pitching rankings heading into the 2011 season based on off-season transactions to date.  I put these rankings together to project the standings by division.  Here’s what the Sherpa’s crystal ball is telling me on a late January afternoon:

AL East

1. Boston
2. New York
3. Toronto
4. Tampa Bay
5. Baltimore

AL Central

1. Chicago White Sox
2. Minnesota
3. Detroit
4. Kansas City
5. Cleveland

AL West

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Oakland
3. Texas
4. Seattle

NL East

1. Philadelphia
2. Florida
3. Atlanta
4. New York Mets
5. Washington

NL Central

1. Cincinnati
2. Milwaukee
3. St. Louis
4. Chicago Cubs
5. Pittsburgh
6. Houston

NL West

1. San Francisco
2. Arizona
3. Colorado
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
5. San Diego

A couple of quick comments/observations:

• I won’t project games won until after I’ve completed my player projections (which will allow me to project the number of runs each team will score and allow).  These projected standings may change slightly when the projections are complete.
•  4 teams appear to be the class of baseball heading into the 2011 season, at least based on my subjective team hitting and team pitching rankings:
  1. Boston
  2. Philadelphia
  3. Cincinnati
  4. Chicago White Sox

Not coincidentally, these are the only four teams I’d place in the top 10 for both team hitting and team pitching.

How do these projected standings compare to yours?  I welcome any and all comments/feedback - I certainly don’t have a monopoly on truth (nor do I pretend to), so let me know what you think!
Have a great week!
The Sherpa

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@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter