The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Hi everyone!  With much of the nation in the grips of a nasty cold-snap, I figured this would be a good time to start cranking up the baseball talk for the 2011 season.  As part of my process for developing player projections I rank the 30 teams by team hitting and team pitching.

Here are the team hitting ranks:

1. Boston
2. New York Yankees
3. Chicago White Sox
4. Cincinnati
5. Philadelphia
6. Texas
7. Toronto
8. Arizona
9. Chicago Cubs
10. Milwaukee
11. Baltimore
12. St. Louis
13. Minnesota
14. Los Angeles Angels
15. Detroit
16. Florida
17. New York Mets
18. Tampa Bay
19. Pittsburgh
20. San Francisco
21. Kansas City
22. Cleveland
23. Oakland
24. Colorado
25. Washington
26. Seattle
27. Atlanta
28. Los Angeles Dodgers
29. San Diego
30. Houston

See any team’s ranking that you think is way off?  Let me know, and we’ll discuss.
Have a great week!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s fanpage on Facebook

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

2 quick reminders before we get to the fantasy baseball news:

1) If you’re also a fantasy football enthusiast, be sure to check out FantasyFootballSherpa.com for player projections and customizable player rankings before your upcoming draft/auction.

2) I’ve started a weekly fantasy football show with my co-host Jana that’s called “4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa”.  The show airs from 9:30-10:30pm on Wednesday nights on Blog Talk Radio.  If you miss a show (we’ve done four already), they’ll be archived on the BTR website, or you can also download them for your future listening pleasure.  We do the standard review of teams/players, but we also try to include a healthy dose of strategy, something we feel is sorely missing from the majority of existing shows.  We hope to do a similar show for fantasy baseball starting in time for the 2011 season!

Okay, on to the baseball.  Highlights from Weeks 19-20:  Cubs manager Lou Piniella unexpectedly called it a career with 6 weeks left in the season; Ryne Sandberg is waiting in the wings.  Chipper Jones’ career may also have come to an end, but certainly not on his terms.  Meanwhile in New York, one Met pitcher was mercilessly booed after his post-game assault on his common-law wife’s father, while another Met pitcher, recently accused of rape on a golf course, was cheered after a pitching performance that gave the Mets’ beleagured bullpen a day off.  Tensions boiled over during the recent Cardinals-Reds series in Cincinnati, resulting in an ugly bench-clearing brawl in which Johnny Cueto attempted to earn his black belt, but earned a seven-game suspension instead.

Thoughts from Week 19-20

• Hurt locker - Where to begin?  Recent new arrivals on the DL include Alex Rodriguez, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury (likely out for the season), Lance Berkman, Carlos Guillen, Eric Patterson, Josh Willingham (out for the season), Jack Wilson (out for the season), Chipper Jones (out for the season), Jeff Nieman, Jeff Francis, Jeff Keppinger, Troy Glaus, and Cristian Guzman.  Consider Pedro Feliz, Will Rhymes, Mitch Moreland, Xavier Nady, Jamey Carroll, Chris Denorfia, Felix Pie, Reid Brignac, Josh Bell, Brian Duensing, Ross Ohlendorf, Josh Wilson, Brendan Ryan, and Ronny Cedeno as potential replacements.  Mets outfielder Jason Bay is probably done for the year with lingering concussion symptoms.  Francisco Rodriguez was placed on the restricted list - he’s done for the season, and Ronny Paulino was suspended 50 games for using PEDs, which effectively ends his season.

• Welcome to The Show! - Jeremy Hellickson and Lorenzo Cain were recently called up to the bigs for the first time.  Unfortunately for Hellickson, he’s already been sent back to the minors, but expect him to be recalled when the Sept 1 March of the Prospects commences.

• Welcome back! - Eric Young Jr, Cameron Maybin, Michael Bowden, Jhoulys Chacin, Micah Hoffpauir, Travis Buck and Pat Misch are all back in the big leagues.  Jose Guillen wasn’t out of work long, as the Giants claimed him from the Royals.  Travis Hafner, Orlando Hudson, Mark Teahen, Kyle Lohse, Homer Bailey, Andrew Bailey, Juan Gutierrez, Ryan Doumit, Carlos Pena, Martin Prado, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and David Eckstein have all returned recently from DL stints. 

• Thanks for playing; better luck next time - Everth Cabrera, Luis Montanez, Jordan Brown, Aaron Cunningham, Juan Francisco, Dayan Viciedo, Fernando Martinez, and Chis Carter were all recently sent down to the minors - expect all of them to be back in the majors Sept 1 or shortly after.  Veterans Brad Hawpe and Jody Gerut were recently released - Hawpe will catch on again soon (some team will be willing to bet he’s not on the Garrett Atkins career path), and Gerut may too if a team is looking for an inexpensive stopgap option in the outfield.

• Closer roulette - With Francisco Rodriguez out for the season the Mets have turned to Hisanori Takahashi as their new closer, at least in the short run.  If you have room on your bench, speculative pick-ups of Bobby Parnell and even Manny Acosta may pay off down the road.  Jonathan Broxton seems to be back on track in Los Angeles, so Hong-Chih Kuo probably won’t get more than an occasional save from here on out.  White Sox closer Bobby Jenks’ back continues to flare up on him occasionally, but with set-up men J.J. Putz and Matt Thornton both hurting too, there’s no apparent successor (Sergio Santos?  Chris Sale?)  The Arizona situation remains a mess, although Sam Demel has pitched better recently, and Juan Gutierrez is back from the DL.  Avoid this bullpen at all costs.  The Washington closer situation has yet to sort itself out.  Drew Storen remains the most logical candidate, but for whatever reason Nats manager Jim Riggleman seems reluctant to state the obvious.  Avoid this bullpen as well.

• Role play  - The San Francisco outfield became more muddled with the recent acquisition of Cody Ross from the Marlins - expect Aaron Rowand to be relegated to a late innings defensive replacement role.  Jose Guillen and Pat Burrell are both more attractive options than Ross.  Aubrey Huff has shifted back to first base, forcing Travis Ishikawa back to the bench.  Mike Fontenot’s recent acquisition may cost both Freddy Sanchez and Pablo Sandoval some at-bats.  Ross’ departure has led to Cameron Maybin’s return in Florida; Maybin should have a firm grasp on centerfield for the duration of the season.  In Texas David Murphy has taken over centerfield from Julio Borbon, and Jorge Cantu continues to lose at-bats to rookie Mitch Moreland.  In Boston Jacoby Ellsbury’s return to the DL means more playing time for Darnell McDonald.  The Red Sox are trying to reacquire former Idiot Johnny Damon, but as of this writing it’s looking like Damon will exercise his no-trade clause to veto the deal.  In Houston Carlos Lee has been getting playing time at first base in place of rookie Brett Wallace, which may lead to more at-bats for reserve outfielders Jason Michael and Jason Bourgeois.  In Oakland Chris Carter’s recent return to the minors means that Daric Barton’s job is safe for now.  In Seattle Josh Wilson replaces Jack Wilson at short, although Matt Tuiasosopo may also get some playing time there.  In New York Jeff Francoeur’s job seems safe for now with Fernando Martinez back in the minors.  In Pittsburgh Ryan Doumit has been seeing more time in rightfield lately, meaning more at-bats for Chris Snyder and fewer for Lastings Milledge.  In Atlanta Martin Prado’s return and Derrek Lee’s acquisition mean fewer at-bats for Brooks Conrad now and for Omar Infante when Troy Glaus returns from the DL.  In Chicago Lee’s departure will mean more at-bats for both Xavier Nady and Micah Hoffpauir.

Strategy Corner

• Trading Places - In a previous post I described how to do a quick analysis of potential point swings by category to help in prioritizing trade and free agent targets for your team.  To summarize - the greater the potential point swing, the greater weight that category should receive in evaluating potential moves for your team.  The same analysis can be performed on other teams’ rosters to determine their areas of greatest need.  This can be useful both for determining whether there’s a potential match for a trade and how likely the other team is to bid on the same free agent you’re interested in.  I always appreciate it when owners proposing a trade to me at least take a stab at convincing me why the trade they’re poposing would improve my team, but it’s also painfully obvious that few owners bother to take this next logical step of actually analyzing their potential trading partner’s needs.

• Fill ‘er up! - Many roto leagues contain a games played (GP) maximum by position and an innings pitched (IP) max.  It neve ceases to amaze (or amuse) me just how many owners fail to take advantage of these maximums (or “maxima”, for those Latin scholars in the audience).  Of course, if your league uses more average-based categories than counting categories, you have to be careful when doing this.  However, in the vast majority of leagues, where the counting categories outnumber the average-based categories, you have almost nothing to fear but fear itself (or laziness).  If you have room on you bench, an extra outfielder, who can usually cover 4-6 starting spots (including Utility), is a good choice.  Just be sure your league doesn’t have a cap on the number of moves you can make or an escalating charge per transaction above a certain threshold!

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like us to address in future newsletters, send us a note with your suggestion!

• If you’re not already a subscriber, you owe it to yourself to sign up today for the Sherpa’s In-season Updates!  Use this revolutionary tool to make roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  Whenever an MLB team makes a move (e.g. - minor league call-ups, DL, batting order position changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves) playing time for all affected players is updated.  We have 990 players in our database, and our Remainder-of-Season forecasts and rankings are updated for every player, every day!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

2 quick public service announcements before we get to the fantasy baseball news:

1) If you’re also a fantasy football enthusiast, be sure to check out FantasyFootballSherp a.com for player projections and customizable player rankings before your upcoming draft/auction.

2) I’ve started a weekly fantasy football show with my co-host Jana that’s called “4th & Inches with Jana and The Sherpa”.  The show airs from 9:30-10:30pm on Wednesday nights on Blog Talk Radio.  If you miss a show (we’ve done two already), they’ll be archived on the BTR website, or you can also download them for your future listening pleasure.  We do the standard review of teams/players, but we also try to include a healthy dose of strategy, something we feel is sorely missing from the majority of existing shows.  We hope to do a similar show for fantasy baseball starting in time for the 2011 season!

Okay, on to the baseball.  Highlights from Week 18:  In this season of no-hitters, Brandon Morrow’s one-hitter yesterday may actually be this year’s best pitching perfomance.  Meanwhile, Toronto’s hitters keep bashing homers at a prodigious pace.  Alex Rodriguez finally hit his 600th home run (although hardly anyone noticed/cared) but was then injured in yet another freak accident on the field in a season full of them.  Trevor Hoffman re-emerged as the Brewers’ co-closer, although no one expect s this arrangement to last any longer than it takes Hoffman to get to 600 saves.

Thoughts from Week 18

• Hurt locker - Recent new arrivals on the DL include Andrew Bailey, Nyjer Morgan, Todd Martin, John Buck, Carlos Pena, Carlos Santana (out for the season), Jason Bay, and Kevin Youkilis (out for the season).  Consider J.J. Putz, Mike Morse, Jason Kendall, Josh Thole, Luke Scott, Jonathan Lucroy, Lastings Milledge, and Casey Kotchman as potential replacements.  David Freese, who’s been on the DL but had hoped to return, has also been ruled out for the rest of the season.

• Welcome to The Show! - Brett Wallace, Ryan Kalish, Mike Minor, J.P. Arencibia, Peter Bourjos, Chris Carter (A’s version), and Chris Sale have all been called up to the bigs recently for the f irst time.

• Welcome back! - Kila Ka’aihue is back in the majors, hopefully for an extended stay this time.  Carlos Delgado has been signed to a minor league contract by the Red Sox and will presumably be up with Boston as soon as he’s deemed to be “in shape”.  Dan Johnson and Fernando Martinez are among other familiar names recently called back up to the majors. 

• Thanks for playing; better luck next time - Situations can change quickly in baseball.  In Spring Training the Rangers were trying to figure out how they could fit both of their first base prospects, Chris Davis and Justin Smoak, into their lineup at the same time.  Smoak is now with the Mariners (some would argue that still constitutes the minors) and has recently been sent down because he was being outplayed by Casey Kotchman.  Davis has been unproductive (to p ut it kindly) in two separate stints with the Rangers this season, and they recently farmed him out so that the newly-acquired Jorge Cantu could play first every day.  A similar situation exists with Texas’ catchers, but that’s not as interesting, so we’ll leave that alone.  It’s a wonder they’re still in first place.  Jose Guillen and Garret Anderson were both DFA’d this week; Guillen will likely latch on with a contender seeking a bat off the bench, while there’s a good chance the classy Anderson’s career has finally drawn to a close.  Alex Cora is no longer a Met, and Kenshin Kawakami and John Mayberry were sent down to the minors by their respective clubs.

• Closer roulette - With Andrew Bailey on the DL Michael Wuertz should see the majority of the save opportunities forr Oakland.  Bobby Jenks has a bad back, but don’t look for the White Sox to use J.J. Pu tz or Matt Thornton as the closer once Jenks regains his health.  With Juan Gutierrez on the DL Aaron Heilman is back as the D-backs’ closer, but keep an eye on Jordan Norberto if when Heilman struggles.  Matt Capps’ recent trade has caused shuffling in both the Nationals’ and the Twins’ bullpen.  Drew Storen figures to get the bulk of the save chances eventually for the Nats, but he may have to split opportunities with Tyler Clippard, Sean Burnett, and possibly even Joel Peralta in the short-term.  Jon Rauch has been relegated to the role of (almost) seven-foot set-up man in Minnesota.  With Octavio Dotel now pitching for the Dodgers Joel Hanrahan (once the Nats’ closer) has taken over as the closer in Pittsburgh, while Evan Meek will continue to press his nose against the glass.  As mentioned above, Trevor Hoffman is back (briefly) as the Brewers’ (co-)closer in what can only be desc ribed as a crass publicity stunt shrewd move to take the pressure off rookie John Axford.  Finally, Kerry Wood’s departure from Cleveland has made Chris Perez the default closer for the Tribe.  Which would be a good thing except for the fact the Indians haven’t provided many save opportunities this season, and Perez has yet to look comfortable as a closer in several previous cameos.

• Role play  - Miguel Tejada’s arrival in San Diego has rendered Everth Cabrera useless for fantasy purposes.  Ryan Doumit’s return from the DL means that recent arrival Chris Snyder’s value is down the dain.  After today’s Jim Edmonds-Chris Dickerson trade the Reds’ outfield situation remains a mess, as Edmonds, Drew Stubbs, Chris Heisey, and Jonny Gomes will essentially share two outfield spots.  The Brewers’ outfield situation is a bit clearer, but not by much.& nbsp; Chris Dickerson will take over from Lorenzo Cain as the primary fill-in while Carlos Gomez is on the DL.  It’s anybody’s guess what happens when Gomez returns.  Many saw Lance Berkman’s trade to the Yankees as a boon to his fantasy value, but I strongly disagree.  Yes, he’s hitting in a much more potent lineup, but he’ll give way to Marcus Thames at DH when a southpaw is on the mound - the lost at-bats will more than offset the gain from hitting in a better lineup.  Mike Lowell takes over as the Red Sox’ first baseman until Carlos Delgado is ready to take over as the Red Sox’ first baseman. 

Strategy Corner

• Analyzing fantasy categories/maximizing fantasy points - There are obviously lots of ways to do this for a roto league, but here’s one I like alot.  For each category your league uses, write down both the number of points you could gain and the number you could lose in the next week.  Then add together the absolute value of those numbers to get the potential “swing”.  For example, if you could gain 1 point and lose 3 points in AVG in the next week, write down 4 for that category.  Repeat for each category.  The higher the potential point swing, the higher priority you should give to that category when evaluating potential trades, lineup decisions, and free agent pickups.  Some will ask “Who cares about how many points I could lose?  I just want to gain points!”  So do we all, but the fact remains that many players excel in one or two categories and are mediocre (or worse) in the remaining ones.  Preventing the loss of points in one category will help you just as much as a gain of points in another (i.e. - it’s only the net effect of all the gains and losses we care about).  I choose the one-week evaluation period for two reasons: (1) at this point in the season there’s not much time left, so it makes sense to take a shorter-term view than you would earlier in the season, and (2) injuries and especially minor league call-ups will dilute the player pool in September, making it more difficult (at least in theory) to make up ground then than it is now.  Of course, the later you get in the season, the harder it is to move your results in the average-based categories because of the ever-increasing base of AB or IP.

• ERA/WHIP management - Towards the end of the season many owners, even experienced ones, let their guard down and begin to chase Wins, Saves, and Strikeouts while neglecting the impact doing so will have on their ERA and WHIP.  That’s not to say that streaming a pitcher or two will automatically cause your ERA and WHIP to skyrocket (see comment in previous bullet about i ncreasing IP base), but you still need to be at least somewhat mindful.  Especially in leagues with weekly lineup changes where you fear falling short of a minimum innings requirement, the temptation can be great to pick up any two-start pitcher who’s available or trade for a lower-tier closer.  If you’re going to do that, try to minimize the potential impact on you ERA and WHIP by picking up a middle reliever or two who can help you keep your ERA and WHIP in check.  Ideally, ty to pick up standout set-up men with winning teams, as they may also get the occasional win or hold.  Daniel Bard, J.J. Putz, Matt Thornton, and pretty much anyone in the Padres’ bullpen (Gregerson, Thatcher, Stauffer et. al.) meet those criteria.

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like us to address in future newsletters, send us a note with your suggestion!

• If you’re not already a subscriber, you owe it to yourself to sign up today for the Sherpa’s In-season Updates!  Use this revolutionary tool to make roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  Whenever an MLB team makes a move (e.g. - minor league call-ups, DL, batting order position changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves) playing time for all affected players is updated.  We have 990 players in our database, and our Remainder-of-Season forecasts and rankings are updated for every player, every day!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

Highlights from Week 14:  We’ve finally hit the All-Star break.  Michael Young may or may not be at the game.  Omar Infante definitely will be there.  In spite of the usual debates about who belongs and who doesn’t belong at this year’s All-Star Game, it’s actually next year’s All-Star Game that’s garnering more attention in the press.  Once the festivities in Anaheim are over, attention will turn to the upcoming July 31st trading deadline.  However, for the second year in a row, Cliff Lee, arguably the best southpaw in the game today, has been traded from an also-ran to a contenter in July.  Back on the diamond itself Roy Halladay and Travis Wood matched zeroes in an epic pitching matchup Saturday night; it was the first time in eight seasons that both starting pitchers had held the opposing team scoreless through nine innings. 

Thoughts from Week 14

• Hurt locker - Recent new arrivals on the DL include Jake Peavy (out for the season), Jason Heyward, Luke Scott, Ramon Hernandez, Shin-Soo Choo, Todd Helton, Yovani Gallardo, Ryan Ludwick, Will Venable, and David Freese, just to name a few.  Consider Bruce Chen, Aaron Cunningham, Lyle Overbay, Ryan Hanigan, Gerardo Parra, Ike Davis, R.J. Dickey, Skip Schumaker, John Jay, and Adam Rosales as potential replacements.

• Welcome back! - Daniel Hudson, who was with the White Sox briefly last summer, and Chris Davis were the biggest names summoned back to the bigs last week.  Hudson replaces the aforementioned Jake Peavy, while Davis gets yet another shot in Texas as he replaces Justin Smoak, who was shipped off to Seattle as part of the bounty in exchange for Cliff Lee.  Other familiar names back in the majors include Chris Tillman, Ryan Shealy, and Brad Eldred.

• Thanks for playing; better luck next time - Among those sent down to the minors recently were Armando “Mr. Imperfect” Galarraga, Josh Bell, and Jason Jaramillo.  Expect to see Galarraga and Bell back before long.  The Orioles cut ties with Garrett Atkins, the D-backs sent Dontrelle Willis to the showers, and the Rays waved good-bye to Hank Blalock

• Closer roulette - Huston Street has returned to the closer role in Colorado, displacing Manny Corpas.  Bobby Jenks has finally settled down for the White Sox, who not coincidentally are back in first at the All-Star break.  Alas, in Arizona no one appears fit for the job, at least not Aaron Heilman, Chad Qualls, and Juan Gutierrez.  Avoid all three unless you’re securely in first or last in both ERA and WHIP. 

• Role play  - Skip Schumaker and Brendan Ryan are both seeing more playing time in the wake of injuries to Ryan Ludwick and David Freese.  Aaron Cunningham is doing an admirable job while filling in for Will Venable.  Joba Chamberlain is back to giving Yankee manager Joe Girardi fits in the set-up role.  Bill Hall, Darnell McDonald, and Eric Patterson are all seeing playing time in the absence of Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jeremy Hermida, but none should be on your roster in all but the deepest of AL-only leagues.  Nick Hundley and Yorvit Torrealba are back in what appears to be a jobshare in San Diego.  Jayson Nix and Jason Donald are both legitimate Middle Infielder options, even in some mixed leagues.  Angel Pagan should see significant playing time in right field once Carlos Beltran retuns from the DL this week, so look for alternatives if you’re in an NL-only league and have Jeff Francoeur in your starting lineup.

Strategy Corner

• Trade deadline - Not only does this time of year bring the trading deadline for MLB GMs, but fantasy GMs are likely looking at a trade deadline somewhere between mid-July and mid-August.  The All-Star break is a great time to take stock of your roster, assess your strengths and weaknesses by roster spot and statistical categories, and make some adjustments.  Look for teams whose strengths match up well with your weaknesses and vice versa.  Don’t send me an offer for Dan Haren if I’m near the bottom of the standings in the pitching category (unless it’s a keeper league, of course).  If you do, you’ll be less popular in Sherpaville than LeBron James is in Cleveland these days.

• Roster management - If you’re in a league that has both games played and innings pitched maximums (I couldn’t bring myself to type “maxima”), keep track of the pace you’re on with regard to both.  Ideally, you’ll be on pace to exceed both slightly throughout the season, but not significantly.  Why?  Because with most league settings that utilize maximums it’s virtually impossible to be on track to simultaneously exceed both games played and innings pitched by a wide margin.  Usually, if you’re way ahead of pace in one, you’ll be well behind pace in the other.  Your goal is to use all of your games played and innings pitched by the end of the season.  It does you no good to be 200 innings pitched ahead of pace while you’re 10+ games behind pace at every hitting position:  you won’t have enough Mondays and Thursdays left in the season to make up ground in the games played department.  Conversely, it is possible to “finish early” on the games played side and make up ground on innings pitched by streaming starting pitchers, but doing so will usually do irreparable harm to your WHIP and ERA (and any other ratio-based pitching categories).

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like us to address in future newsletters, send us a note with your suggestion!

• If you’re not already a subscriber, you owe it to yourself to sign up today for the Sherpa’s In-season Updates!  Use this revolutionary tool to make roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  Whenever an MLB team makes a move (e.g. - minor league call-ups, DL, batting order position changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves) playing time for all affected players is updated.  We have 990 players in our database, and our Remainder-of-Season forecasts and rankings are updated for every player, every day!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone!

We’re midway through Week 11, and Pedro Alvarez is the only big-name prospect to be called up so far this week.  It’s strange to have all teams playing 6 games this week (and next); take advantage if your league allows daily lineup transactions to maximize your ABs and IPs before your fellow league owners realize what’s going on (if they haven’t already).

Need to know which under-the-radar players to pick up and which overvalued players to stay away from?  Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s entries on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com.  I’m one of several contributors to Zack’s blog, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).

This is the Week 11 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations.  Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor will identify one undervalued player who’s likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who’s likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Highlights from Weeks 8-10:  Following Roy Halladay’s perfect game at the end of Week 8, Armando Galarraga pitched an imperfect game in Week 9.  No truth to the rumor that the Hall of Fame called to request Jim Joyce’s arms.  At least Galarraga won’t be called “Andres” any more (we hope).  In the last week and a half baseball said good-bye to The Kid, hello to The Natural, and prepared for the highly-anticipated debuts of three mega-prospects (and no, I’m not talking about Jesus Feliciano).  By the way, if you missed Roy Halladay’s perfect game, plenty of good seats are still available! (unfortunately, this trend seems to be catching on). 

Thoughts from Weeks 8-10

• Hurt locker - Recent new arrivals on the DL include Grady Sizemore (out for the season), Gregg Zaun (ditto), Kendry Morales (out for the season after one of the strangest injuries you’ll ever see), Nelson Cruz (an encore performance), Jacoby Ellsbury (ditto), Jimmy Rollins, Travis Snider, Takashi Saito, Alfredo Simon, Derek Holland, Oliver Perez (???), Aramis Ramirez, Nate McLouth, Jason Bulger, Marcus Thames, and Gabe Kapler, just to name a few.  Consider Austin Kearns, Nick Hundley, Lyle Overbay, Jason Donald, Angel Pagan, Michael Wuertz, Manny Parra, Trevor Cahill, Kevin Kouzmanoff (more on him in a bit), Melky Cabrera, Aaron Heilman, Ryan Sweeney, and Darnell McDonald as potential replacements.

• Son of Slam - Jorge Posada made his 250th home run a memorable one, belting the eighth grand slam of his career on Saturday in the Yankees’ victory over the Astros.  Just for good measure he hit his 251st career home run and ninth grand slam (warning: annoying audio accompanying the video) on Sunday in yet another Yankee victory over the ‘Stros.  At this rate Posada will break Lou Gehrig’s career grand slam mark of 23 in early July.  For dramatic effect neither one of Posada’s slams could touch the Saturday slam belted by Red Sox rookie outfielder Daniel Nava on the first pitch he saw in his major league career (not bad: one pitch, one curtain call)!  It’s only the fourth time in MLB history that a player has hit a grand slam in his first at-bat, and only the second time it’s happened on the first pitch (Kevin Kouzmanoff was the other in 2006).  Oddly, one of the two other players to hit a first career at-bat grand slam was Jeremy Hermida, the player Nava replaced in the Red Sox lineup (Hermida was a Marlin when he accomplished the feat in 2005).

• Welcome, and enjoy The Show! - The floodgates have officially opened:  Buster Posey, Stephen Strasburg, Mike Stanton, Carlos Santana, Jake Arrieta, Jose Tabata, and Brad Lincoln have all made their debuts within the last two weeks, and Neil Walker has also been making a name for himself in his brief time in The Show.  Pedro Alvarez, Brett Wallace, Madison Bumgarner and Tyler Flowers will all likely be up soon too.

• Welcome back! - Max Scherzer, Ryan Raburn, and Danny Worth are all back with the Tigers after brief stays in the minors.  Pat Burrell had a mini-vacation after being released by the Rays, but he’s now a proud member of the San Francisco Giants.  Chris Capuano has completed an amazing journey back to the big leagues, even though it looks like his stay in the Brewers’ rotation was a short one.  Jesse Litsch also pitched Saturday for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery, but the results weren’t pretty.  Chad Tracy is back with the Cubs, and Emilio Bonifacio is once again a Marlin.  Finally, St. Louis, which has a well-earned reputation as the MLB equivalent of The Land of Misfit Toys, opened its arms to Jeff Suppan and Randy Winn, who were recently let go by the Brewers and Yankees, respectively.

• Thanks for playing; better luck next time - Among those sent down to the minors recently were Matt LaPorta and Josh Reddick.  Expect to see all of them back in the bigs before long.  The A’s designated Jake Fox for assignment Sunday after not giving him much of a chance to showcase the power the offensively challenged team desperately needs.  Go figure.  Mark Grudzielanek, Saul Rivera, Mike Lamb, Chris Coste, and Gary Matthews Jr have all likely played their last MLB game for some time, if not forever.

• Closer roulette - Most of the recent closer intrigue has been in the NL.  Huston Street’s return date has been pushed back yet again, so hold on to Manny Corpas.  In Philadelphia Brad Lidge has regained the closer role from Jose Contreras.  In Arizona Chad Qualls continues to struggle, and it seems like it’s just a matter of time before the D-backs make a trade for a new closer or give Aaron Heilman a shot.  John Axford has settled in as the Brew Crew’s closer, and Brandon Lyon is filling in for Matt Lindstrom in Houston while the latter rests a bad back.  Alfredo Simon should return this week for the Orioles, and Brian Fuentes continues to hold off Fernando Rodney in Los Angeles Anaheim.  Finally, things are still a mess on the South Side of Chicago, where manager Ozzie Guillen may be gone before Bobby Jenks finally cedes his spot to J.J. Putz, Matt Thornton, or Sergio Santos.

• Role play  - As noted above Jorge Posada has returned to the Yankees, but Francisco Cervelli will likely continue to see the bulk of the starts at catcher to give Posada time to heal on the job.  Hanley Ramirez is back in the Marlins’ third spot after a brief encore performance as a leadoff hitter.  Carlos Guillen has settled in as the Tigers everyday second baseman, and Manny Parra has been placed back in the Brewers’ rotation. 

Strategy Corner

• Interleague play redux - Interleague play will wreak havoc with fantasy lineups yet again this week.  Five AL teams (Bal, CWS, Oak, TB, and Tex) will be without their designated hitter spot all week as they play six games in NL parks.  Try to find alternatives if your lineup includes Luke Scott, Mark Kotsay, Jack Cust, Hank Blalock, or Vlad Guerrero.  On the other hand Arizona and the NY Mets both play six games in AL parks, which means that Gerado Parra and Chris Carter will likely have more fantasy value than usual.  

• Streaming pitchers - Most fantasy owners who rely on streaming pitchers to maximize their innings pitched make a quick qualitative judgment about both the pitcher’s ability and the strength of the opposing team’s offense.  To take some of the guesswork out of the process, analyze a team’s offensive stats the same way you would analyze the offensive stats of a hitter you are thinking of adding to your roster.  Obviously, the process works in reverse when analyzing teams rather than individual hitters:  instead of looking for teams that hit lots of homers, steal lots of bases, and hit for a high average, you’re looking for the exact opposite.  This process is far from fool-proof, but if applied consistently over a length of time, it can help you identify pitchers with the most favorable upcoming match-ups. 

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like us to address in future newsletters, send us a note with your suggestion!

• If you’re not already a subscriber, you owe it to yourself to sign up today for the Sherpa’s In-season Updates!  Use this revolutionary tool to make roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  Whenever an MLB team makes a move (e.g. - minor league call-ups, DL, batting order position changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves) playing time for all affected players is updated.  We have 990 players in our database, and our Remainder-of-Season forecasts and rankings are updated for every player, every day!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

A couple of big fantasy baseball names were placed on the DL this afternoon - one hitter & one pitcher; both fom the American League.

 If you’re looking for an outfielder to replace Grady Sizemore, consider Corey Patterson, Andres Torres, Angel Pagan, and Jeremy Hermida.

 If you’re looking for a starting pitcher to replace Josh Beckett, consider Bronson Arroyo, Wade LeBlanc, Justin Masterson, and Tim Wakefield.

Hope your week is going well! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

Week 6 highlights:  It’s nice to see the Reds and Padres in first place.  Of course, we all know that those two teams will win their divisions again when pigs fly, hell freezes over, and Omar Vizquel DHs.  Oh, wait (is Ozzie trying to get fired?) . . . Meanwhile, we saw two additional violations of the unspoken rule that players should never question a team’s medical staff.  Mark DeRosa started to question some things prior to hitting the DL with his wrist injuy, while Pat Neshek was chastised by Twins manager Ron Gardenhire for venting his frustrations on “the Tweeter”.  Rockies manager Jim Tracy and Phillies manager Charlie Manuel engaged in a war of words over the Phillies alleged sign-stealing using binoculars (how quaint - don’t they have an iPhone app for that yet?)

Thoughts from Week 6

• Hurt locker - Brad Lidge, Mark DeRosa, Travis Snider, Justin Duchscherer, John Baker, Scott Harrison, Matt Diaz, and Doug Davis were among the new arrivals on the DL this week.  Andre Ethier’s broken pinkie will probably have a bigger impact on fantasy leagues than all the previous injuries combined, but he hasn’t been placed on the DL yet (stay tuned, and don’t start him this week if you have other options).  Jonathan Niese isn’t on the DL yet, but given his past hamstring problems, the Mets could well be hamstrung again.  Monday night injuries include Asdrubal Cabrera (sounds like he’s probably headed for the DL) and Hanley Ramirez (sounds like he probably isn’t).  Consider Jose Contreras, Andres Torres, Michael Saunders, Kris Medlen, Ronny Paulino, Brennan Boesch, Eric Hinske, Wade LeBlanc, Austin Kearns, Jake Westbrook, Ramon Santiago, and Cristian Guzman as possible replacements.   

• Welcome, and enjoy The Show! - Super Twos Day has yet to arrive (as Potter Stewart once remarked, “I can’t define it, but I’ll know it when I see it”), but the Nationals called up closer-in-waiting Drew Storen on Monday to help bolster a bullpen that consists of Matt Capps, Tyler Clippard (who’s still tied for the MLB lead in wins!), and a bunch of chicken wire.  Barring trades, injuries, or arms falling off, Storen isn’t likely to close this season, but if you have a bench spot you can afford to speculate with or play in a keeper league, he’s worth a shot.  The Yankees called up 1B/DH Juan Miranda, but even though Nick Johnson will reportedly be out until late July/early August, look for the Yankees to rotate position players through the DH spot (especially Jorge Posada) or trade for a veteran rather than use Miranda regularly.

• Welcome back! - Hank Blalock, Jack Cust, and Corey Patterson have all been called up after proving they had nothing left to prove in the minors and showing they deserved another chance in The Show.  Armando Galarraga and Eugenio Velez don’t fit into that category; nevertheless, they’re also back in the bigs.  Even if you’re not a Rockies fan it was still great to see Jeff Francis pitch well Sunday in his first big league appearance since 2008.  I don’t know whether he can be a consistent winner/fantasy contributor again, but I’m willing to take the risk (even in a deep mixed league) to find out. 

• Thanks for playing; better luck next time - Among those sent down to the minors this week were Max Scherzer, Nolan Reimold, Ryan Raburn, Scott Sizemore (yes, the Tigers were on the rampage), and Kila Ka’aihue.  Expect to see all of them back in the bigs before long.  The Rays finally cut the cord with Pat Burrell, whose days as an everyday player appear to be over.  Even if he catches on somewhere else as a DH, he’s unlikely to play enough (or well enough) to warrant consideration in all but the deepest of AL-only leagues.

• Closer roulette - Most of the closer intrigue this week played out in the NL.  Huston Street has suffered a setback, so it’s likely Manny Corpas will be Colorado’s closer for the foreseeable future.  As mentioned above, Washington has called up Drew Storen, but Matt Capps is in no imminent danger of losing his job.  Also mentioned above, Philadelphia has been forced to put Brad Lidge back on the DL, and even though J.C. Romero got the save Sunday night, it appears that Jose Contreras will receive most of the save opportunities until Lidge retuns.  In Arizona Chad Qualls continues to close arteries as well as games, but unless you’re a huge Aaron Heilman fan, there’s no reason to speculate at this point on anyone else in the D-backs’ abysmal bullpen.  No further clarity on the White Sox’ closer situation - Bobby Jenks is still “the closer”, but Matt Thornton also converted a save opportunity this week.  However, if you own either J.J. Putz or Sergio Santos, don’t cut them loose yet - they’re still in the mix.  Still no definite return date for Mike Gonzalez in Baltimore, and the way Alfredo Simon has been pitching (with the notable exception of his first blown save), it’s not a given that Gonzalez will be reinstalled as the closer immediately upon his return.

• Role play  - Jose Reyes will assume his rightful spot at the top of the Mets batting order.  His fantasy value increases marginally on the basis of gaining an extra 30 at-bats over the remainder of the season (vs. batting third in the order); look for his average, stolen bases, and runs scored to increase as well.  Brendan Ryan will apparently lose his job as the Cardinals everyday shortstop when Felipe Lopez returns from the DL this week.  Don’t get too comfortable though if you’re a Skip Schumaker owner: unless he starts to hit soon, Lopez may cut into his playing time as well.  Yunel Escobar’s return from the DL will reduce Omar Infante’s playing time in Atlanta.  Hank Blalock takes over for Pat Burrell as Tampa Bay’s primary DH (sorry, Willy Aybar owners).  Due to outfield injuries in Atlanta and San Francisco, Eric Hinske and Andres Torres are playing more often than not; NL-only owners, take note. 

Strategy Corner

• Interleague play - This week marks the start of that favorite time of year for baseball “purists” near and far:  interleague games.  The bane of many mixed league and AL-only owners existence (especially those who play in head-to-head leagues), interleague games played in AL parks offer a special bonus for those in NL-only leagues.  Rejoice if you own players on Cincinnati, the Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee, Colorado, Florida, San Francisco, and San Diego.  Doublecheck your lineups if you own a DH-type on Boston (David Ortiz), Baltimore (Luke Scott), the New York Yankees (Marcus Thames), Tampa Bay (Hank Blalock), the Los Angeles Angels (Hideki Matsui), Toronto (Adam Lind), and Detroit (Johnny Damon).  It’s possible some of these players may be used in the field, but certainly don’t count on that being the case for all three games next weekend.  You have been warned.

• Memoryless - As I’ve written in the past, a fantasy team owner’s success (or lack thereof) depends just as much, if not more so, on psychology as it does on actual knowledge of baseball players and teams.  Here’s yet another example.  Suppose you are the Sherpa a fantasy team owner who shall remain nameless.  A couple of weeks ago Kila Ka’aihue was called up from the minors, and you saw an opportunity to get more power out of your Corner Infield spot than Brendan Harris could ever possibly hope to provide.  So, you splurged and spent $2 or $3 of your $100 FAAB money to add Ka’aihue to your roster.  You’re feeling pretty good about your team’s newest acquisition; after all, he has a track record of success as a minor league power hitter, and the Royals could definitely use another power hitter in their lineup (please take a seat, Mitch Maier, your sunflower seeds will be here shortly).  Besides, why would any team, even one that has a history of head-scratching moves such as the Royals, call a player up from the minors just to sit on the bench?  Only that’s exactly what happens.  You think to yourself, “How could this be?  This doesn’t make any sense whatsoever?  Who are the real-life idiots that make these decisions?”  A week goes by, and you have the opportunity to bid on Hank Blalock, who’s just been called up to the majors, has a track record of success at the major league level, and is replacing a player who’s actually been released (so long, Pat Burrell).  Should you (a) bid aggressively on Blalock and view him as a replacement for Ka’aihue?  (b) make a half-hearted bid for Blalock, come up short, and then rationalize your mealy-mouthed/chicken-livered bid by telling yourself that Ka’aihue will still get his chance and prove you right? or (c) pass altogether on bidding for Blalock? (after all, why would anyone spend their FAAB money two weeks in a row to fill the same roster spot?  Of course, the correct answer is (a).  Almost all of us would agree with that, at least in theory.  Yet in practice many people would choose (b) or (c) because they would view (a) as an admission that they made a mistake last week.  Get over it.  Even the best fantasy owners make moves that turn out to be mistakes.  What distinguishes the more successful fantasy owners from those who aren’t as successful is the ability to admit mistakes when necessary, move on, and try again. 

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

• If you have any topics you’d like us to address in future newsletters, send us a note with your suggestion!

• If you’re not already a subscriber, you owe it to yourself to sign up today for the Sherpa’s In-season Updates!  Use this revolutionary tool to make roster moves, set your lineup, and evaluate trade proposals.  The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use!  Whenever an MLB team makes a move (e.g. - minor league call-ups, DL, batting order position changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, and other roster moves) playing time for all affected players is updated.  We have 990 players in our database, and our Remainder-of-Season forecasts and rankings are updated for every player, every day!  Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone - the Week 4 wrap-up is a few days late; hopefully, at the very least, you’ll still get something out of this week’s strategy discussion.

What a wacky period Week 4 was:  Ryan Madson losing a split decision to a clubhouse chair after blowing a save; Chris Perez fuming at Howie Kendrick after a suicide squeeze that worked; and Eric Byrnes nearly running over his GM on a bicycle and losing his job after a suicide squeeze that didn’t work. 

Thoughts from Week 4

• Injuries - A long list again this week, but the key ones were those to Joe Mauer, Nelson Cruz, and Curtis Granderson.  While it’s tempting to look at Wilson Ramos (Mauer’s fill-in and a highly-touted prospect) as a potential replacement, you’re better off going with the likes of John Baker, Ronny Paulino, or Jason Kendall, while hoping that Buster Posey, Tyler Flowers, and/or Jesus Montero get called up soon.  For Cruz and Granderson consider Marlon Byrd, Brett Gardner, David Murphy, and Aaron Rowand as possible replacements. 

• Closer roulette - This week’s 9th inning intrigue was centered in Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Colorado.  Jim Johnson is out in Baltimore (and back in the minors), Alfredo Simon has the job for now, but Mike Gonzalez, and possibly even Koji Uehara are waiting in the wings.  In Philly Ryan Madson is out (and on the DL - see above), Brad Lidge is back, and Jose Contreras may soon get a shot if Lidge falters.  In Colorado Huston Street is at least a couple of weeks away from returning, and Franklin Morales may soon be replaced by Manny Corpas.  Pay no attention when a blast from the past such as Bruce Chen or Nelson Figueroa garners the random save.

• Should they stay or should they go?  - Luke Hochevar?  Go.  Colby Lewis?  Stay.  Dana Eveland?  Go.  Ben Sheets?  Go.  Jake Peavy?  Stay.  Carlos Silva?  Go.  Livan Hernandez?  Go.  Carlos Lee?  Stay.  Jeff Clement?  Go.

• Sell high candidates  - Robinson Cano, Vernon Wells, Paul Konerko, Andre Ethier, Marlon Byrd, Kelly Johnson, Doug Fister, Ricky Romero, Colby Lewis, Barry Zito, Livan Hernandez, Brad Penny.

• Buy low candidates  - Mike Napoli, Matt LaPorta, A.J. Pierzynski, Brendan Ryan, Carlos Lee, Nate McLouth, Javier Vazquez, Jake Peavy, Josh Beckett, Jair Jurrjens, Trevor Hoffman, Adam Harang.

Strategy Corner

• Head-to-head leagues - Two thoughts:  (1) Since there’s no carryover impact from a player having a bad week, you should be willing to take more chances with a head-to-head lineup than you would with a roto lineup.  In a roto league you would almost never consider starting Russell Branyan over someone like James Loney because of the irreparable damage Branyan would do to your team’s batting average over the course of a season.  However, in a head-to-head league, besides supplying more power most weeks than Loney, there are also a handful of weeks in which Branyan would actually provide a higher batting average than Loney too.  (2) If you have a fairly large lead in an average-based category late in the week, there’s nothing wrong with benching your players to increase the chances you’ll preserve your lead.  This is particularly true on the pitching side, where multiple average-based categories are usually used, and if your head-to-head league uses a “winner takes all” format for the weekly matchups. 

• Incremental improvement - Keeping up with the day-to-day player developments can seem like an onerous chore for fantasy owners.  However, keep in mind that the most successful owners are the ones that always take advantage of opportunities to improve their team throughout the season, no matter how slight the improvement might seem.  It’s easy to think that the owners who win championships are the ones that have a successful draft/auction and get lucky with a few key in-season speculative pick-ups.  Usually, that’s only partially true - successful owners are the ones who upgrade from Tommy Manzella to Ronny Cedeno or from Garrett Atkins to Ty Wigginton.  Taken individually, these changes will have only a marginal impact on your team, but if you take this approach consistently throughout the season (whether through trades or free agent acquisitions), you’ll increase your chances of success dramatically.

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Thoughts from Week 2

• Good start - Again, as I discussed last week, don’t get too excited by players’ early-season results, good or bad.  If you truly believe that Alberto Callaspo & Jason Varitek will end the season with more home runs than Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Lee, then I’d like to sell you a non-refundable round-trip airline ticket to Iceland that has to be used in the next 48 hours.

• Bad start - Before you hit the “Drop” button and bail on a player this early in the season, ask yourself this:  if this were July or August instead of April, and the player had been performing at their expected level, then suddenly had a 2-3 week “slump”, would you react the same way?  The only difference between July/August and April is the amount of prior data available to smooth out the rough patches.  If you wouldn’t dump the player if his slump occurred in July/August, then you shouldn’t dump him in April either.  Yes, there may be more “talent” available on the waiver wire in April than in July/August, but if you preferred the player in question at the time of your draft/auction, then barring a serious injury or loss of a job, you should still prefer the player currently on your roster.  If any of you drop Carlos Lee to pick up Eugenio Velez, you’ll be able to hear me scream from wherever you happen to be reading this.

• Keeping it real - Just in case you’re curious, here were my preseason projections for Ponce de Leon Jr (aka Livan Hernandez):   10 Games Started, 59 Innings Pitched, 3 Wins, 5.51 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and 28 Strikeouts.  I stand by that, and even though he may start more than 10 games for the Nationals, don’t be at all surprised if his ERA and WHIP approach those projected levels before he’s eventually released.  Feel free to remind me if I’m wrong.

• Should I like Ike? - It appears that within the next few days Mets first baseman Ike Davis will be the first highly-touted prospect to be called up to The Show in 2010.  While I give the Mets credit for belying their “Fred Coupon” reputation, I still don’t think this is a good idea from either the team’s or the player’s perspective.  At least Davis has 10 AAA games under his belt, which is 10 more than fellow Mets rookie Jenrry Mejia had before he made the team this Spring.  However, even though there have been cases where skipping/spending minimal time in AAA has worked (e.g. - Ryan Braun, Evan Longoria, and to a lesser extent, Matt Wieters come to mind), I’m generally not comfortable relying on rookies who’ve spent less than half a season at each level in the minors.  For every Ryan Braun success story there must be at least a dozen cautionary tales like Fernando Martinez’.  Sure, if you play in a keeper or dynasty league, go ahead and pick Davis up if you’ve got space on your roster.  However, if your primary goal is to win this season and you’re in need of a first baseman, better to go with a proven commodity such as Aubrey Huff than to cast your fate to the wind.  My projections for Mr. Ike:  256 AB (remember, Daniel Murphy will be back in early-mid May), .242 AVG, 6 HR, 31 RBI, 25 R, and 0 SB - not quite the stuff of legends, no?

• Closer roulette - After a year of relative calm on the closer front, it appears that things have returned to their normal state in 2010 (meaning that we can expect at least 10-12 teams to change closers at least once during the course of the season).  Kevin Gregg is now in, Chad Qualls may be out, Kerry Wood & Brian Fuentes could be back as soon as this week, while Huston Street, Brad Lidge,  & Mike Gonzalez don’t figure to rejoin our wacky world until sometime after May Day.  Don’t discard Jason Frasor just yet if you already own him, and consider him a good speculative pick-up if he’s sitting in your free agent pool.  Some other names to keep an eye on:  Kevin Jepsen, Kam Mickolio, Jensen Lewis, Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya, Cla Meredith, Daniel Bard, Mark Lowe, Sergio Romo, Peter Moylan, and Tyler Clippard.  Finally, add A’s relievers Michael Wuertz and Joey Devine to your watch list when they come off the DL. 

• The pool on the hill  - If you’re lamenting your pitching staff’s early season performance (or lack thereof), some names that have caught my eye so far are Bud Norris, Tom Gorzelanny, Kevin Correia, Dana Eveland, Colby Lewis, and Luke Hochevar.  If they’re all spoken for, some minor leaguers worth speculating on include Christian Friedrich, Jhoulys Chacin, Martin Perez, and Jeremy Hellickson.

• Well positioned - If you’re in need of some hitters, guys to keep an eye on include Nate Schierholtz, Seth Smith, Eric Hinske, J.R. Towles, Pedro Alvarez, Jeremy Hermida, Alex Gordon, Ty Wigginton, Pat Burrell, Carlos Santana, and Fred Lewis.  In the unlikely event you’re playing in a league with Livan Hernandez’ relatives, see if you can trade them Livan straight up for Carlos Lee.  No need to thank me for this advice. 

Strategy Corner

• Crazy cats - If you play in a league that gives bonus points for no-hitters and you just happened to have Ubaldo Jimenez in your lineup last week, then congratulations.  However, if you’re planning to trade for guys who can help you with no-hitters, perfect games, cycles, etc, don’t waste your time.  Games that register points in these categories are so infrequent and so unpredictable that they’re virtually meaningless for use as fantasy baseball categories - you might as well throw all your league’s managers’ names in a hat, pick one at the end of the season, and randomly award them extra points.  Sure, CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, & Felix Hernandez all have a better chance of throwing a no-hitter than Livan Hernandez or Jason Marquis, but so far, both groups of pitchers have the same total number of no-hitters in their collective careers, which is to say “none”.

• Stars and scrubs forever? - The “Stars & Scrubs” approach has long been a favorite roster-building technique for those playing in auction leagues.  Load up on as many star players as you can afford, the thinking goes, and you’ll have such a big advantage over the competition that you can still win even if you sit on your hands for most of the auction, then swoop in at the end and buy the majority of the players on your roster for a dollar or two.  All you need is one or two of your scrubs to have breakout seasons, and you’ll inevitably be perched atop your league’s standings when the season ends.  While I understand the logic behind this approach (e.g. - the top performers should go for a hefty premium because of their relative year-to-year consistency), I heartily disagree with it, especially in “only” leagues.  The point of auction leagues is to accumulate as much talent in aggregate as you can subject to your league’s constraints (e.g. - starting lineup salary, total team salary, roster requirements, etc.).  Ideally, you’d like every player on your roster to produce at better than their expected level.  However, when you pay a premium on the top players, you’re reducing your team’s chances of acquiring the most talent in aggregate.  The key to success in most leagues is not the number of big names on your roster, but rather the aggregate number of innings pitched and at-bats your team racks up.  In a mixed league it’s still relatively easy to wind up with everyday players at every position, but you’ll probably have at least a few Jack Wilsons and Carlos Silvas on your roster if you go this route.  If you’ve adopted the Stars & Scrubs approach but see your team stuck deep in the standings, check the correlation between the number of at-bats and a team’s place in the standings - you’ll be surprised.  If this describes your team, you may want to consider trading off several of your stars in exchange for 2 or 3 solid, reliable (if unspectacular) performers who face little to no competition for everyday at-bats.

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I list 8-9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Enjoy today’s “Patriots’ Day Games”, and have a great week! 

The Sherpa

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