The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Thoughts from Week 2

• Good start - Again, as I discussed last week, don’t get too excited by players’ early-season results, good or bad.  If you truly believe that Alberto Callaspo & Jason Varitek will end the season with more home runs than Alex Rodriguez and Carlos Lee, then I’d like to sell you a non-refundable round-trip airline ticket to Iceland that has to be used in the next 48 hours.

• Bad start - Before you hit the “Drop” button and bail on a player this early in the season, ask yourself this:  if this were July or August instead of April, and the player had been performing at their expected level, then suddenly had a 2-3 week “slump”, would you react the same way?  The only difference between July/August and April is the amount of prior data available to smooth out the rough patches.  If you wouldn’t dump the player if his slump occurred in July/August, then you shouldn’t dump him in April either.  Yes, there may be more “talent” available on the waiver wire in April than in July/August, but if you preferred the player in question at the time of your draft/auction, then barring a serious injury or loss of a job, you should still prefer the player currently on your roster.  If any of you drop Carlos Lee to pick up Eugenio Velez, you’ll be able to hear me scream from wherever you happen to be reading this.

• Keeping it real - Just in case you’re curious, here were my preseason projections for Ponce de Leon Jr (aka Livan Hernandez):   10 Games Started, 59 Innings Pitched, 3 Wins, 5.51 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, and 28 Strikeouts.  I stand by that, and even though he may start more than 10 games for the Nationals, don’t be at all surprised if his ERA and WHIP approach those projected levels before he’s eventually released.  Feel free to remind me if I’m wrong.

• Should I like Ike? - It appears that within the next few days Mets first baseman Ike Davis will be the first highly-touted prospect to be called up to The Show in 2010.  While I give the Mets credit for belying their “Fred Coupon” reputation, I still don’t think this is a good idea from either the team’s or the player’s perspective.  At least Davis has 10 AAA games under his belt, which is 10 more than fellow Mets rookie Jenrry Mejia had before he made the team this Spring.  However, even though there have been cases where skipping/spending minimal time in AAA has worked (e.g. - Ryan Braun, Evan Longoria, and to a lesser extent, Matt Wieters come to mind), I’m generally not comfortable relying on rookies who’ve spent less than half a season at each level in the minors.  For every Ryan Braun success story there must be at least a dozen cautionary tales like Fernando Martinez’.  Sure, if you play in a keeper or dynasty league, go ahead and pick Davis up if you’ve got space on your roster.  However, if your primary goal is to win this season and you’re in need of a first baseman, better to go with a proven commodity such as Aubrey Huff than to cast your fate to the wind.  My projections for Mr. Ike:  256 AB (remember, Daniel Murphy will be back in early-mid May), .242 AVG, 6 HR, 31 RBI, 25 R, and 0 SB - not quite the stuff of legends, no?

• Closer roulette - After a year of relative calm on the closer front, it appears that things have returned to their normal state in 2010 (meaning that we can expect at least 10-12 teams to change closers at least once during the course of the season).  Kevin Gregg is now in, Chad Qualls may be out, Kerry Wood & Brian Fuentes could be back as soon as this week, while Huston Street, Brad Lidge,  & Mike Gonzalez don’t figure to rejoin our wacky world until sometime after May Day.  Don’t discard Jason Frasor just yet if you already own him, and consider him a good speculative pick-up if he’s sitting in your free agent pool.  Some other names to keep an eye on:  Kevin Jepsen, Kam Mickolio, Jensen Lewis, Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya, Cla Meredith, Daniel Bard, Mark Lowe, Sergio Romo, Peter Moylan, and Tyler Clippard.  Finally, add A’s relievers Michael Wuertz and Joey Devine to your watch list when they come off the DL. 

• The pool on the hill  - If you’re lamenting your pitching staff’s early season performance (or lack thereof), some names that have caught my eye so far are Bud Norris, Tom Gorzelanny, Kevin Correia, Dana Eveland, Colby Lewis, and Luke Hochevar.  If they’re all spoken for, some minor leaguers worth speculating on include Christian Friedrich, Jhoulys Chacin, Martin Perez, and Jeremy Hellickson.

• Well positioned - If you’re in need of some hitters, guys to keep an eye on include Nate Schierholtz, Seth Smith, Eric Hinske, J.R. Towles, Pedro Alvarez, Jeremy Hermida, Alex Gordon, Ty Wigginton, Pat Burrell, Carlos Santana, and Fred Lewis.  In the unlikely event you’re playing in a league with Livan Hernandez’ relatives, see if you can trade them Livan straight up for Carlos Lee.  No need to thank me for this advice. 

Strategy Corner

• Crazy cats - If you play in a league that gives bonus points for no-hitters and you just happened to have Ubaldo Jimenez in your lineup last week, then congratulations.  However, if you’re planning to trade for guys who can help you with no-hitters, perfect games, cycles, etc, don’t waste your time.  Games that register points in these categories are so infrequent and so unpredictable that they’re virtually meaningless for use as fantasy baseball categories - you might as well throw all your league’s managers’ names in a hat, pick one at the end of the season, and randomly award them extra points.  Sure, CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Johan Santana, Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Zack Greinke, Dan Haren, & Felix Hernandez all have a better chance of throwing a no-hitter than Livan Hernandez or Jason Marquis, but so far, both groups of pitchers have the same total number of no-hitters in their collective careers, which is to say “none”.

• Stars and scrubs forever? - The “Stars & Scrubs” approach has long been a favorite roster-building technique for those playing in auction leagues.  Load up on as many star players as you can afford, the thinking goes, and you’ll have such a big advantage over the competition that you can still win even if you sit on your hands for most of the auction, then swoop in at the end and buy the majority of the players on your roster for a dollar or two.  All you need is one or two of your scrubs to have breakout seasons, and you’ll inevitably be perched atop your league’s standings when the season ends.  While I understand the logic behind this approach (e.g. - the top performers should go for a hefty premium because of their relative year-to-year consistency), I heartily disagree with it, especially in “only” leagues.  The point of auction leagues is to accumulate as much talent in aggregate as you can subject to your league’s constraints (e.g. - starting lineup salary, total team salary, roster requirements, etc.).  Ideally, you’d like every player on your roster to produce at better than their expected level.  However, when you pay a premium on the top players, you’re reducing your team’s chances of acquiring the most talent in aggregate.  The key to success in most leagues is not the number of big names on your roster, but rather the aggregate number of innings pitched and at-bats your team racks up.  In a mixed league it’s still relatively easy to wind up with everyday players at every position, but you’ll probably have at least a few Jack Wilsons and Carlos Silvas on your roster if you go this route.  If you’ve adopted the Stars & Scrubs approach but see your team stuck deep in the standings, check the correlation between the number of at-bats and a team’s place in the standings - you’ll be surprised.  If this describes your team, you may want to consider trading off several of your stars in exchange for 2 or 3 solid, reliable (if unspectacular) performers who face little to no competition for everyday at-bats.

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I list 8-9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Enjoy today’s “Patriots’ Day Games”, and have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Thoughts from Week 1

• Good start - As happens every season, there are a number of players off to surprisingly good starts (e.g. - Chris Young (OF), Edgar Renteria, Vernon Wells, Alex Gonzalez).  At the risk of stating the obvious, don’t give in to “irrational exuberance” and overpay for players like these if another owner in your league tries to sell high on them.

• Bad start - As is also the case every season, there are a number of players off to lousy starts (e.g. - Giovany Soto, Corey Hart, Carlos Lee, Chris Davis).  At the risk of stating the obvious here too, don’t give in to the temptation to cut them loose after 5-6 games in order to pick up someone who’s off to an unexpectedly good start.  It’s easy to assure yourself that you’ll never succumb to this “logic” when it happens to another owner’s players, but when it happens to your own players, logic often flies out the window (especially if your team as a whole is not off to a good start).

• Slow starters - If you subscribe to the popular Baseball Prospectus (BP) theory that most starting pitchers don’t reach their potential until they’ve had 40-60 big league starts (which usually happens in their 2nd or 3rd MLB season), then Luke Hochevar and Dana Eveland are two hurlers you should keep an eye on (unless you play in an NL-only league, of course).  On the other hand, pitchers such as Gio Gonzalez, Charlie Haeger, and the rest of the Blue Jays’ young pitchers likely need another 1-2 seasons before hitting their stride.  This rule of thumb obviously isn’t foolproof but it’s a reasonable decision criterion if you’re trying to decide among several starting pitchers.

• Second opinions - There’ve been a number of key injuries already, especially among second basemen.  Keystone sackers who’ve already bitten the dust (so to speak) include Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts, Aaron Hill, and potentially Mark Ellis.  Potential replacements you should consider if they’re available include Luis Valbuena, Mike Fontenot, Jose Uribe, and Akinori Iwamura.  According to injury expert Stephania Bell of ESPN, Diamondbacks catcher Miguel Montero is likely to miss at least 6 weeks with his torn meniscus; his backup Chris Snyder is a better add in head-to-head leagues than in roto leagues because of his low average, but depending on who else is available, you should definitely consider him as a replacement.  Even better, if Pirates first baseman Jeff Clement is available in your league and still eligible at catcher, add him instead.  He’s a great choice because he’s likely to play in more games than Montero (or any other catcher, for that matter), which works to your advantage in leagues where counting stats carry more weight in aggregate than average-based stats (which is the case in most leagues).

• Upon closer inspection - We’ve also seen the requisite amount of closer drama during Week 1.  According to Rangers manager Ron Washington, Frank Francisco’s demotion is just temporary.  However, it’s hard to believe that “Francisco Squared” (or, if you’re the Giants, ”Francicso Squared”) will get his job back any time soon if the heralded Neftali Feliz comes anywhere close to living up to his enormous hype.  Mike Gonzalez has been temporarily removed as Baltimore’s closer, but unlike the Texas situation, I expect this to be just a temporary move since the Orioles don’t have any obvious candidates to replace Gonzalez on a long-term basis.  Cleveland’s Chris Perez has blown several saves since taking over for the disabled Kerry Wood; if Perez implodes before Wood returns, look for either Jensen Lewis or Tony Sipp to step into the ninth-inning role.  Finally, Rockies closer Huston Street’s return date keeps moving in the wrong direction (current estimate:  early May), so Franklin Morales should continue to get Colorado’s save opportunities for at least several more weeks.

Strategy Corner

• FAABulous - I’ve written extensively in the past about how it makes sense to spend your Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) aggressively, which is especially true in a mixed league.  Many people would argue against using this strategy in an “only” league, where star-level players often get traded into the league (and thrown into your free agent pool) in mid-late July towards the July 31st trading deadline.  Save your money, the thinking goes, and you’ll be in better position to bid on this year’s version of Manny Ramirez, CC Sabathia, or Matt Holliday.  However, what if several owners in your league employ the same strategy?  Worse yet, what if none of these big deadline deals take place?  Do you really want to hoard your dollars all season, only to get Jeff Suppan or Chad Gaudin as your “prize” for your patience?  When it comes to your FAAB, you’re far better off if you spend it throughout the season to plug holes and make incremental improvements to your roster.  This is one instance in which the proverb “a bird in hand is worth two in the bush” rings especially true. 

• Trading places - Once we’ve had a chance to see our rosters in action for a few weeks (or sometimes even sooner than that), it often becomes clear to us that our current roster isn’t quite the juggernaut we’d envisioned when we got up from the table on draft/auction night.  Most of us will seek to improve our squads through both the free agent pool and the trade market.  Before proposing a trade to a fellow owner, take a minute to put yourself in the other owner’s shoes and consider your reaction if the same trade were proposed to you.  If you fall off your chair laughing hysterically, exclaim “no way in hell I’d do that!”, or have to spend 5 minutes rationalizing the trade to yourself, chances are good the other owner will have a similar reaction.  Don’t do that.  You could argue “caveat emptor” applies to fantasy baseball trades, but even if you do succeed in snookering another owner into trading Derek Jeter for Alex Gonzalez, not only will the other owner eventually resent you, but so will the rest of the owners in your league (even in a cutthroat league).  You may win the battle, but you’ll lose the proverbial war - not only will the owner left holding the bag resent you and refuse your future trade overtures, but you’re likely to be ostracized by the rest of the owners in your league.  Conversely, throw out a reasonable first offer (even if it’s not your “best and final offer”), and the other owner (as well as the rest of your league’s owners, if they find out) will be more likely to respect you and trade with you in the future, even if they reject that particular offer.  

Wrapping Up

• I’m writing a weekly entry this season for Fantasy Windup, which is USA Today’s fantasy baseball blog.  Each week I list 8-9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week; the entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.

• I’m also contributing to a weekly entry called “Makers & Breakers” on Forbes.com’s Sports Money blog, which is edited by Zack O’Malley Greenburg.  Each panelist suggests one widely available player who is likely to make a better-than-expected contribution to your team’s title chances, and one highly owned player who is likely to disappoint you and sabotage your team.  This entry will generally be posted Wednesday afternoon or evening.

• Brad Berkowitz, a successful entrepreneur and published author, recently interviewed me for his blog post on Examiner.com.  The interview came out very well, if I do say so myself (note:  modesty is not one of the sherpas’ stronger traits).

• I was a guest this past Saturday on RotoCommunity’s hour-long Blog Talk Radio show - thanks so much to RotoCommunity’s Pat Mayo for having me on as his guest and to RotoCommunity chief Dave Gawron for the invitation!

Have a great week! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Thanks to Pat Mayo of RotoCommunity for having me on as a guest for his Blog Talk Radio show last Saturday (and to RotoCommunity chief Dave Gawron for the invite)! http://bit.ly/bURtNM

We spent the first 45 minutes or so talking about fantasy baseball (both specific players and general strategies), then the next 10 minutes talking about some of the recent NFL transactions and their impact on the upcoming fantasy football season.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

I realize that most of you are now done with your auctions and drafts for the 2010 fantasy baseball season, but I thought it might still be worthwhile to share some thoughts with you on various situations and strategies I observed during the last month or so. . . 

I just accepted an invitation to play in a fantasy baseball league the other day.  “What’s the big deal”? I hear you say (hypothetically speaking, of course; I can’t really read your thoughts - that would be creepy).  “You do this for a living - you’re supposed to play in fantasy baseball leagues, aren’t you?”

Well, yes, I am (thanks for asking!), but this marks the 17th league I’ll be participating in for the 2010 season (I’m not proud . . . or tired).  While I am amused that the number of leagues I’m playing in is almost double my shoe size, my real reason for mentioning this is that I’m here to help you (just like the guv’mint!)  Just for good measure I’ve also participated in several mock drafts and helped out with the Tout Wars auctions the weekend before last at Citi Field.  Whether you play in a draft league or an auction league, a mixed league or an “only” league, a large league or a small league, one that uses standard categories or not, one that uses keepers or not, etc., chances are pretty good that I’ve already experienced most of the challenges you’re likely to face as you put your team together.

With that said, hear are some of my observations on some of the more common and/or interesting scenarious I’ve encountered or observed so far:

Reality check - If you’re drafting online, use the host site’s projections as a reality check, not your primary source.  Even in many industry leagues, people tend not to be as prepared as you would expect.  Thus, they default to the host site’s projections, especially in the middle and latter stages of the draft.  If you use a set of projections from another source, you can use the host site’s projections to get an idea of just how long you can wait on the players you feel are undervalued.

Respect your elders - Of course, given the choice (especially in a keeper league) most of us would opt for the potential of a Jason Heyward over the experience of a Johnny Damon to fill an outfield roster spot.  Nothing wrong with that (unless you’re Johnny Damon’s mother, in which case I apologize profusely).  However, many fantasy owners when faced with the choice between an experienced player and an unproven one reflexively go for the younger one hoping that he’ll turn into the next baseball superstar.  That’s all well and good, but remember just how few superstars there really are in baseball.  What are the chances the hotshot rookie you’re eyeing turns out to be the next one?  Somewhere between slim and none (and slim is on his way into the clubhouse shower).  I’ll take the reliability of a Derrek Lee over the promise of a Gaby Sanchez any day of the week.

Arms proliferation - People who play fantasy baseball spend a lot of time debating the relative fantasy value of hitters versus pitchers.  Most people come down on the side of favoring hitters over pitchers, especially in the early rounds of a draft or with their big-money purchases in an auction league.  My general sense is that this occurs because most fantasy players have a better intuitive feel for “counting stat categories” than “average-based categories”.  Many leagues use just one average-based category for hitters and two average-based categories for hitters.  Combine that with the fact that starting pitchers contribute nothing in categories such as Saves, and most people are left with just two pitching categories that they feel comfortable with (Wins and Strikeouts).  And of course we all know how unpredictable pitcher win totals are, since they depend on the opposing pitcher, the offense, the bullpen, etc.  From what I’ve observed over the years, the top pitchers in many fantasy scoring systems are just as valuable as the top hitters, but they often go later in drafts and for less money in auctions.  Take advantage of this fact as you map out your strategy.

Greed is good - Fantasy experts (including the Sherpa) are always preaching the value of using player rankings that reflect your league’s actual system, particularly if you play in a points-based league.  Yet many owners still don’t make the time to do this, opting instead to show up at their draft or auction with player rankings that are based on an entirely different scoring system.  I recently observed a mock draft for a league using a very unusual scoring system - so unusual, in fact, that the top 27 starting pitchers all had higher projected point totals than the top hitter (Albert Pujols).  Predictably though, Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, and Alex Rodriguez were still the top three players chosen.  If your league uses an unusual scoring system that presents you with arbitrage opportunities, by all means take advantage of them.

Energy efficient - If you’re in a draft league, don’t waste time and energy fretting (or worse yet, complaining to your leaguemates) about how cruel the fantasy fates have been in assigning you an unfavorable draft position.  Yes, the closer you are to the ends in a snake draft, the more likely it is that a potential position run between two of your picks will force you to draft someone you really want a round or two early.  However, it’s possible to win a fantasy league from any draft position.  Most people who play fantasy baseball know which players should go in the first few rounds.  It’s in the middle and later rounds that your team’s potential for success is truly determined, not in the early rounds.  Using a league-specific player ranking system will more than make up for any “disadvantage” caused by your draft position.

Half and half - Speaking of position runs between two of your selections when you’re at one of the ends of a draft and are facing a long wait before your next pick, a reasonable worst-case assumption is that half of the picks between yours will be at the position you’re targeting.  Closers and catchers tend to be most susceptible to position runs, but that’s still no reason to pick Matt Capps or Jason Kendall before the latter stages of your draft.

Tracking devices - Whether your league uses a draft or an auction, tracking your leaguemates’ picks by position is a key to fantasy success.  This monitoring is far more important than tracking the actual names of the players taken.  If your draft or auction is online, let the host site’s software track the taken players’ names for you.

Budget consciousness - If you’re participating in an auction it’s crucial to go into it with a budget for hitters and for pitchers by roster slot.  However, I’d strongly advise against making your budget based on a hitter’s position or a pitcher’s role (i.e. - starter, middle reliever, closer).  It’s okay to deviate from your budget, but you must keep track of your cumulative deviation from your budget unless you want to finish your auction with money left on the table (almost always a bad sign) or by getting into a bidding war over the likes of Adam Everett and Carlos Silva.

Zero fear - How often have you played in an auction league and seen the winning bid end with a 9 because everyone else was afraid to raise the bid another dollar to a number ending in zero?  Having a successful auction depends at least as much on mastering auction strategy and psychology (mind games, if you will) as it does on your knowledge of the players.  There’s nothing magical or mystical about multiples of ten.

Maintain your flexibility - Seizing unanticipated opportunities as they arise is key to success in both drafts and auctions.  Having a plan before you start is a good idea.  Being willing to modify the original plan in the face of unexpected developments is an even better idea.

Hurt locker - Be sure to distinguish between players who are returning after missing time with injuries last season from players who are currently injured (e.g. - Jake Peavy vs. Brandon Webb).

Two dollar trump - Although many auction participants brag about their one dollar players who led their team to the league title, I’d strongly suggest budgeting at least $2 to every roster spot (including bench players, if they’re included in your auction).  Doing so will put you at a huge advantage at the end when most of your competitors are down to $1 per player and the auction essentially becomes a draft.  Nominate the players you want for a dollar (two dollars if someone else with an opening at the same position can go up to two dollars for a players), and have your cursor on the “Bid” button so that you can be the first person to raise other participants’ one dollar nominations to $2.  Keeping $2 on hand per position even at the end of your auction will leave you with a much stronger bench than your opponents, and we all now how important a strong bench is to fantasy success (on the off chance one of our key players gets hurt, which almost never happens, does it?)

Just walk away, Renee - Have the discipline to stick to your predetermined player values during an auction.  Decide on your walkaway price on each player as soon as he’s nominated, and stick to it, even if you’re tempted to go beyond it during the heat of the bidding.  The walkaway price should be a function of (1) your predetermined fair value for the player, (2) how much you have left to spend (i.e. - your current cumulative budget surplus or deficit), and (3) how many players are left at the currently nominated player’s roster position(s).  It may not seem like a big deal to exceed your walkaway price early in an auction, but exceed it by too much, or exceed it on multiple players, and all of a sudden you’ve put yourself in a bad position that will become increasingly difficult to recover from as the auction progresses (with adverse consequences for your roster).

Wrapping up early - A Sherpa rule of thumb:  those who are among the first to finish filling their roster in an auction are generally the owners who are the happiest with their teams coming out of the auction.  Usually, this is a consequence of having established clear fair values and walkaway prices for each player and sticking to them during the auction.

Maintaining balance - Another benefit of establishing players’ fair values before your auction begins is that doing so allows you to determine when an auction passes from one phase to another.  Early in an auction your walkaway price will likely exceed the player’s fair value, which is fine, unless you’re happy with Kurt Suzuki or Jeff Frrancoeur being the cornerstone of your team’s offense.  However, like a seesaw, players’ fair values and their auction prices will even out at some point during the auction.  Eventually, you’ll enter the phase of the auction where players’ auction prices will generally fall below their fair values.  Since the primary objective of an auction is to accumulate as much player value as possible subject to budgetary and roster requirement constraints, you’ll probably want to do most of your buying during the second and third phases.

Power grid/trail of tiers - Whether you’re doing a draft or an auction it’s helpful to put together a grid of all the players you’re potentially interested in organized by position and tiers.  To save yourself time don’t rank more players than the number required by your league in total (including reserves).  If people nominate a player “off the grid”, all the better for you.

Think outside the box(score) - If there’s a way to give yourself an advantage in your league by being creative (but staying within the rules, of course), by all means take it.  Suppose you are playing in a draft league in which players have assigned dollar values.  Also suppose this league has a salary cap that applies to your starters, but there’s no team salary cap.  Finally, suppose this league has a rule that any player with a salary over a certain amount has to be in your starting lineup at least once every other week, or you lose him.  How would you approach this situation?  Most people would be tempted to watch player values throughout the draft to make sure they could stay within the salary cap - they’ll pass on better players and draft one who isn’t as good simply because the player they draft has a more cap-friendly salary.  While your leaguemates are watching their dollars, you could load up on as many high-value p-layers as possible, split them into an A team and a B team (with roughly equal salaries) and play each team every other week.  Of course, unless you have a huge bench, you’d have to make sure you balanced off the stars who play every other week with low cost, undervalued players who would be in your lineup every week.  Using this unusual strategy in this particular case not only improves your team and provides a cushion against the inevitable injuries, but it also keeps those high-value players away from your opponents, which weakens their teams.  Nothing illegal about doing this; besides, our country has a long history of rewarding innovative thinkers who have the couragae to take chances!

So there you have it, one observation for each league I’m playing in this year.  Best of luck to everyone with their team(s) this season, and above all else, remember to enjoy the experience.  Life is way too short as it is; try to have fun no matter what you’re doing.

By the way, I’ll be writing a weekly blog entry for USA Today’s Fantasy Windup - check it out when you get a chance!  Starting this week I’ll also be contributing to a weekly “Makers and Breakers” column on Forbes.com’s SportsMoney blog (first entry should be up tomorrow)!

Hope your season is off to a great start! 

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

I recently participated in Yahoo fantasy sports writer Andy Behrens’ 2nd annual Roto-Arcade Pro-Am league’s auction.  Andy followed up with several questions for each of us, enabling us to discuss strategies and defend questionable picks.  Here’s a link to the Q&A

I know that for most fantasy sports participants there’s nothing potentially more sleep-inducing than reading about other peoples’ fantasy teams.  However, I’m sharing this not so much because you’re likely to care about this particular league or its outcome, but several of the participants get into some interesting strategy discussions during their Q&A section.  Undoubtedly saving the best for last, the Sherpa’s Q&A appears at the end of the entry (right before the reader comments).

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Great article by CBS Sports fantasy writer Scott White on why you should wait on closers in your fantasy draft.  If the charts in Scott’s article don’t convince you that the opportunity cost associated with taking a closer early is too great, nothing ever will:  http://bit.ly/a03KkF

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to let everybody in Sherpaville know that I’ll be appearing on Jay Cruz’ Internet radio program (Pursuit of Happiness) today (Wed 3/17) to talk about fantasy baseball and the upcoming season. I’ll be on with Jay for approximately an hour beginning at 9 am Pacific/noon Eastern.

You can listen live at HealthyLife.net, (click on the “Listen Live” button at the top of the page) or you can listen afterwards by clicking on HealthyLife’s “Archives” button (on the homepage). I will also post the audio files from the show shortly.

Hope you’re able to tune in!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This is the sixth and final post in a series taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll finish the series by reviewing the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including Cliff Lee’s Indians’ stats only (he ranked 32nd based on 152 IP).  The stats from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included.

1. Zack Greinke (Preseason rank was 16) - KC, SP

• Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 237 K, 3.55 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 206 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.93 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 179 K, 1.82 Sherpa Pts

2. Felix Hernandez (23) - SEA, SP

• Actual stats: 232 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 211 K, 3.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 198 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.95 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 174 K, 1.57 Sherpa Pts

3. Roy Halladay (2) - TOR, SP

• Actual stats: 239 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.79 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 208 K, 3.09 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 240 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 173 K, 3.31 Sherpa Pts

4. CC Sabathia (1) - NYY, SP

• Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 194 K, 3.17 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 235 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 219 K, 3.92 Sherpa Pts

5. Justin Verlander (34) - DET, SP

• Actual stats: 232.1 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 264 K, 3.06 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 198 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.55 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 160 K, 1.29 Sherpa Pts

6. Jon Lester (39) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 203.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 225 K, 2.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 177 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 4.27 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 135 K, 1.47 Sherpa Pts

7. Josh Beckett (8) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 207.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.78 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 194 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 194 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.22 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 182 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts

8. Andrew Bailey (186) - OAK, RP

• Actual stats: 81.1 IP, 6 W, 26 SV, 1.88 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 89 K, 2.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 45 IP, 2 W, 0 SV, 6.14 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 49 K, 0.19 Sherpa Pts

9. Mariano Rivera (7) - NYY, RP

• Actual stats: 65.1 IP, 3 W, 44 SV, 1.79 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 71 K, 2.14 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 72 IP, 3 W, 35 SV, 2.38 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 72 K, 2.51 Sherpa Pts

10. Edwin Jackson (232) - DET, SP

• Actual stats: 209 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.36 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 156 K, 2.11 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 138 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 5.67 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 99 K, -0.14 Sherpa Pts

As you can see, there were a couple of big surprises on this list, namely Andrew Bailey and Edwin Jackson. It’s also interesting to note that Red Sox RP Jonathan Papelbon was only the 5th-ranked Closer, trailing Bailey, Rivera, Joe Nathan, and even David Aardsma.  Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only four of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

20. John Lackey (3) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 176.1 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.83 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 139 K, 1.60 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 223 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.71 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 181 K, 2.85 Sherpa Pts

57. Kevin Slowey (4) - MIN, SP

• Actual stats: 90.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.39 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 75 K, 0.78 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 180 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.15 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 151 K, 2.60 Sherpa Pts

18. Jonathan Papelbon (5) - BOS, RP

• Actual stats: 67 IP, 1 W, 38 SV, 1.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 76 K, 1.69 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 68 IP, 3 W, 38 SV, 2.38 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 82 K, 2.56 Sherpa Pts

23. James Shields (6) - TB, SP

• Actual stats: 219.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.14 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 167 K, 1.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 215 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.14 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 171 K, 2.54 Sherpa Pts

11. Joe Nathan (9) - MIN, RP

• Actual stats: 65 IP, 2 W, 45 SV, 2.22 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 83 K, 2.07 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 69 IP, 3 W, 35 SV, 2.48 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 79 K, 2.42 Sherpa Pts

N/A Justin Duchscherer (10) - OAK, SP

• Actual stats: N/A - out entire season
• Projected stats: 163 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.48 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 123 K, 2.26 Sherpa Pts

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to develop our projections for the 2010 season.  We’ll post from time to time during the off-season as warranted by developments.

Enjoy the rest of the playoffs!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This is the fifth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including Matt Holliday’s A’s stats only (he ranked 74th based on 346 At-Bats).  The stats from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included.

1. Joe Mauer (Preseason rank was 75) - MIN, C

• Actual stats: 509 AB, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 4 SB, .367 AVG, 90 R, 3.32 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 437 AB, 8 HR, 66 RBI, 4 SB, .309 AVG, 72 R, 1.87 Sherpa Pts

2. Miguel Cabrera (2) - DET, 1B

• Actual stats: 595 AB, 33 HR, 101 RBI, 6 SB, .329 AVG, 95 R, 3.29 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 612 AB, 35 HR, 125 RBI, 3 SB, .310 AVG, 93 R, 3.46 Sherpa Pts

3. Mark Teixeira (7) - NYY, 1B

• Actual stats: 603 AB, 39 HR, 121 RBI, 2 SB, .294 AVG, 102 R, 3.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 557 AB, 32 HR, 113 RBI, 1 SB, .303 AVG, 96 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

4. Derek Jeter (24) - NYY, SS

• Actual stats: 627 AB, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 30 SB, .335 AVG, 107 R, 3.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 680 AB, 12 HR, 81 RBI, 17 SB, .307 AVG, 106 R, 2.78 Sherpa Pts

5. Carl Crawford (17) - TB, OF

• Actual stats: 598 AB, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 60 SB, .306 AVG, 95 R, 3.08 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 600 AB, 12 HR, 78 RBI, 44 SB, .293 AVG, 94 R, 2.88 Sherpa Pts

6. Adam Lind (65) - TOR, OF

• Actual stats: 587 AB, 35 HR, 114 RBI, 1 SB, .305 AVG, 93 R, 3.08 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 494 AB, 18 HR, 84 RBI, 2 SB, .289 AVG, 65 R, 2.01 Sherpa Pts

7. Aaron Hill (81) - TOR, 2B

• Actual stats: 670 AB, 36 HR, 107 RBI, 5 SB, .288 AVG, 102 R, 3.02 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 554 AB, 11 HR, 62 RBI, 5 SB, .287 AVG, 73 R, 1.76 Sherpa Pts

8. Robinson Cano (36) - NYY, 2B

• Actual stats: 628 AB, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB, .322 AVG, 103 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 679 AB, 18 HR, 96 RBI, 4 SB, .296 AVG, 88 R, 2.55 Sherpa Pts

9. Jason Bay (27) - BOS, OF

• Actual stats: 522 AB, 36 HR, 116 RBI, 13 SB, .266 AVG, 102 R, 2.94 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 588 AB, 30 HR, 102 RBI, 8 SB, .274 AVG, 103 R, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

10. Kendry Morales (8) - LAA, 1B

• Actual stats: 559 AB, 34 HR, 107 RBI, 2 SB, .304 AVG, 85 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 404 AB, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 1 SB, .297 AVG, 56 R, 1.71 Sherpa Pts

There were a number of surprises on this list.  I thought Adam Lind and Kendry Morales would be good, but not this good.  I didn’t think Joe Mauer and Aaron Hill could stay healthy long enough to accumulate the necessary At-Bats to be top fantasy producers, but I was mistaken. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only two of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other eight, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

74. Matt Holliday (1) - OAK, OF

• Actual stats: 346 AB, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 12 SB, .286 AVG, 52 R, 1.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 616 AB, 31 HR, 110 RBI, 20 SB, .318 AVG, 117 R, 3.85 Sherpa Pts

83. Josh Hamilton (3) - TEX, OF

• Actual stats: 336 AB, 10 HR, 54 RBI, 8 SB, .268 AVG, 43 R, 1.20 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 601 AB, 33 HR, 117 RBI, 8 SB, .303 AVG, 98 R, 3.34 Sherpa Pts

50. David Ortiz (4) - BOS, DH

• Actual stats: 533 AB, 28 HR, 97 RBI, 0 SB, .238 AVG, 76 R, 1.89 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 533 AB, 36 HR, 120 RBI, 2 SB, .295 AVG, 105 R, 3.21 Sherpa Pts

70. Vladimir Guerrero (5) - LAA, OF

• Actual stats: 377 AB, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 2 SB, .294 AVG, 58 R, 1.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 568 AB, 28 HR, 107 RBI, 6 SB, .315 AVG, 88 R, 3.17 Sherpa Pts

23. Alex Rodriguez (6) - NYY, 3B

• Actual stats: 437 AB, 28 HR, 93 RBI, 14 SB, .284 AVG, 76 R, 2.50 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 443 AB, 33 HR, 98 RBI, 16 SB, .302 AVG, 95 R, 3.14 Sherpa Pts

64. Grady Sizemore (8) - CLE, OF

• Actual stats: 436 AB, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 13 SB, .248 AVG, 73 R, 1.66 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 637 AB, 30 HR, 84 RBI, 33 SB, .275 AVG, 113 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

13. Ichiro Suzuki (9) - SEA, OF

• Actual stats: 628 AB, 11 HR, 46 RBI, 26 SB, .352 AVG, 87 R, 2.80 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 667 AB, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 41 SB, .324 AVG, 103 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

17. Ian Kinsler (10) - TEX, 2B

• Actual stats: 555 AB, 31 HR, 86 RBI, 31 SB, .254 AVG, 99 R, 2.68 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 603 AB, 22 HR, 80 RBI, 27 SB, .297 AVG, 113 R, 3.09 Sherpa Pts 

As you might suspect, the biggest culprits for off-the-mark projections are injuries (i.e.- a lower-than-expected number of ABs) and/or a substandard AVG, which has ripple effects through other categories, such as RBI and R. 

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to start developing our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll conclude this series with a look at the 2009 top 10 Pitchers in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

This is the fourth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll review the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including Cliff Lee’s Phillies’ stats only (he ranked 47th based on 79.2 IP) and Jake Peavy’s Padres’ stats only (he ranked 59th based on 81.2 IP).

1. Tim Lincecum (Preseason rank was 3) - SF, SP

• Actual stats: 225.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 2.48 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 261 K, 3.46 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 220 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 259 K, 3.20 Sherpa Pts

2. Javier Vazquez (30) - ATL, SP

• Actual stats: 219.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 238 K, 3.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 213 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 203 K, 1.62 Sherpa Pts

3. Chris Carpenter (190) - STL, SP

• Actual stats: 192.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.24 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 144 K, 3.25 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 50 IP, 3 IP, 0 SV, 3.96 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 27 K, 0.30 Sherpa Pts

4. Dan Haren (6) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 229.1 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.14 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 223 K, 3.20 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 216 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.63 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 193 K, 2.76 Sherpa Pts

5. Adam Wainwright (10) - STL, SP

• Actual stats: 227 IP, 19 W, 0 SV, 2.58 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 204 K, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 214 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 146 K, 2.36 Sherpa Pts

6. Josh Johnson (107) - FLA, SP

• Actual stats: 204.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.08 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 186 K, 2.62 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 175 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.61 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 152 K, 1.78 Sherpa Pts

7. Matt Cain (22) - SF, SP

• Actual stats: 212.2 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 2.88 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 166 K, 2.58 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 208 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.94 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 178 K, 1.52 Sherpa Pts

8. Jair Jurrjens (36) - ATL, SP

• Actual stats: 207 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 2.61 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 143 K, 2.50 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 198 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 148 K, 1.35 Sherpa Pts

9. Wandy Rodriguez (69) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 199.2 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 2.97 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 190 K, 2.42 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 151 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.47 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 133 K, 0.91 Sherpa Pts

10. Randy Wolf (105) - LAD, SP

• Actual stats: 209.1 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.22 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 158 K, 2.41 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 157 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.65 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 135 K, 0.58 Sherpa Pts

Wandy Rodriguez and Randy Wolf were complete surprises to me - they both pitched ~50 innings more than I’d projected for them, but of course that’s primarily a result of the fact they pitched much better than I expected. Chris Carpenter is the classic boom-or-bust pitcher coming off an injury.  Before you run out and stock up on pitchers coming back from injuries in 2010, think of Ben Sheets, who represents the flip side of that coin.  In theory Strikeouts and WHIP should be easier to predict than ERA, Wins, and Saves (since the latter group are more a function of randomness and factors beyond a Pitcher’s direct control), but those predictions aren’t always the most accurate in practice. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only three of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other seven, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

16. Johan Santana (1) - NYM, SP

• Actual stats: 166.2 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 146 K, 2.06 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 225 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 218 K, 3.78 Sherpa Pts

59. Jake Peavy (2) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 81.2 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 3.97 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 92 K, 0.88 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 213 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 215 K, 3.26 Sherpa Pts

37. Cole Hamels (4) - PHI, SP

• Actual stats: 193.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 168 K, 1.31 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 197 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.56 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 185 K, 2.97 Sherpa Pts

219. Brandon Webb (5) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 4 IP, 0 W, 0 SV, 13.50 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, 2 K, -0.12 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 226 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 181 K, 2.91 Sherpa Pts

42. Rich Harden (7) - CHC, SP

• Actual stats: 141 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.09 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 171 K, 1.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 143 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.71 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 161 K, 2.67 Sherpa Pts

39. Roy Oswalt (8) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 181.1 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 4.12 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 138 K, 1.23 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 212 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.48 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 161 K, 2.54 Sherpa Pts

60. Carlos Marmol (9) - CHC, RP

• Actual stats: 73 IP, 2 W, 15 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 91 K, 0.87 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 81 IP, 4 W, 25 SV, 2.45 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 107 K, 2.42 Sherpa Pts

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to develope our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page