Fantasy Baseball Week 2 Review (Tue 4/19/11)
Tuesday, April 19th, 2011Hi everyone,
Week 2 featured plenty of stars hitting the DL, and the usual mid-April statistical anomalies. When else would you find the Indians and Royals tied for first place, or several of the league-leaders in home runs on the waiver wire? Dan Haren and Jared Weaver are both on pace to become the first 30-game winners since Denny McClain in the late 1960s. Zach Britton, Jed Lowrie, and David Murphy are flying off waiver wires. The Mets’ tragic number is already down to 2, or so it seems. Last, and certainly not least, Barry Bonds was acquitted on all counts except for a federal obstruction of justice charge - your taxpayer dollars at work!
Thoughts from Week 2
- Hurt locker - Josh Hamilton, Ryan Zimmerman, and Joe Mauer were the biggest names to hit the DL last week, but certainly not the only ones. Rajai Davis, Rafael Furcal, and Chris “The Pitcher” Young all joined them, as did many others. Meanwhile, Jason Bay, Kendry Morales, and Brian Matusz all look like they’re going to be out longer than originally expected.
- Welcome to The Show! - Eduardo Sanchez, a reliever for the Cardinals, made the most dramatic debut last week, striking out 8 of the first 9 major league hitters he faced. In spite of the fact that Tony La Russa won the 2006 World Series with a rookie closer (Adam Wainwright), The Genius has yet to name Sanchez his new closer (see below
middle C). Also, a belated acknowledgement of Michael Pineda’s great start to his major league career. - Welcome back! - Corey Patterson, Jeff Francis, Casey Blake, Conor Jackson, Chris Davis, Casey Kotchman, Ryota Igarashi, and Jason Isringhausen are among those who have returned to the big leagues after stints in the minors or on the DL.
- Thanks for playing; better luck next time! The Braves have already seen enough of Mike Minor, sending him back down to the minor leagues. After all, that is where he belongs, doesn’t he? Brandon Allen is the odd man out in the struggle for 1B/OF playing time in Arizona.
- Closer roulette - Most of this week’s exciting closer news comes to us courtesy of the Great Midwest. In Minnesota Joe Nathan went to manager Ron Gardenhire and didn’t have too much trouble convincing him that Matt Capps is better suited for the closer’s role, at least for the time being. In St. Louis Ryan Franklin blew his fourth save in five tries this season, which convinced even Tony La Russa to give someone else a chance. Problem is, at least from the perspective of fantasy baseball team owners, that La Russa has yet to announce a replacement. Likely candidates include Mitchell Boggs and Jason Motte. Less likely, but still possible candidates include Miguel Batista (really?!?), Eduardo Sanchez (see above), and yes, even Ryan Franklin. Matt Lindstrom and Drew Storen picked up stray saves for Colorado and Washington, respectively, but chances are that Huston Street and Sean Burnett don’t have anything to worry about, at least not yet. No new news to report with the White Sox, Blue Jays, and Rays’ closer situations.
- Role play - Jed Lowrie seems on the verge of taking over the Red Sox’ starting shortstop assignment for good (in both senses of the phrase) from Marco Scutaro. In a more questionable decision manager Terry Francona has dropped the offensively-challenged Carl Crawford from first to seventh in the batting order and promoted J.D. Drew to the lead-off spot. Over/under on the number of games that arrangement will last: 2.5. Julio Borbon got a reprieve of sorts thanks to Josh Hamilton’s injury; David Murphy has taken over Hamilton’s spot instead of Borbon’s. Ryan Roberts is making the most of Melvin Mora’s absence in Arizona, while Russell Branyan is apparently hitting well enough (or at least often enough) for manager Kirk Gibson to keep scrawling Branyan’s name on the lineup card. Drew Butera is the main beneficiary of Joe Mauer’s absence, but no, that doesn’t make him worth owning, even in deep AL-only leagues.
Strategy corner
- It’s never too early to be thinking about trades that can help improve your roster. No, you don’t want to trade Carl Crawford for Darwin Barney, but if someone proposes a trade that seems reasonable to you on the surface, how do you evaluate it? It’s easier if it’s a trade involving the same number of players from each team and/or it’s a swap involving players at the same position. However, what if it’s not - how do you analyze the deal then? The key is not to evaluate the proposed trade as Roy Halladay for Albert Pujols in a vacuum. Who would take Roy Halladay’s spot in your starting lineup, and how much of a drop-off would that represent? Who would Albert Pujols replace in your starting lineup, and how much of an upgrade would that represent? If Albert Pujols sends Adam LaRoche to the bench, but you wind up having to replace Halladay with Joe Saunders, you may want to decline that offer, even though it’s understandably difficult to say no to someone who offers you Albert Pujols. Caveat emptor!
- If you’re someone who likes to stream pitchers and/or pick up pitchers when they have two starts in the upcoming week, don’t waste too much time evaluating the relative merits of the available pitchers - chances are that the differences aren’t that great. The item you want to focus on instead is the upcoming matchups for the pitchers involved. If Waiver Wire Pitcher A faces the Yankees and the Rangers in the week ahead, while Waiver Wire Pitcher B faces the Royals and the Mariners, the choice is clear. If it’s not that one-sided comparison, throw darts at the wall, consult a psychic, or have your newborn pick one out - you’re merely guessing at that point and hoping for the best.
- When deciding between two available players on the waiver wire, position eligibility is a factor that’s often overlooked. Sure, Orlando Hudson may be a more desirable pickup than Jose Lopez, but when you factor in the fact that Lopez is eligible at multiple positions, the comparison isn’t so clear. However, even if Lopez is eligible at multiple positions, if you’ve already got three other players on your active roster who play Lopez’ “second position”, you’re really not gaining anything if you pick him based on his eligibility at multiple position. If that’s the case, trust your gut and go with the “better” player.
Wrapping up
- 2011 marks the second season that I’m writing a weekly entry for Fantasy Windup, Steve Gardner’s fantasy baseball blog on USAToday.com. Each week I highlight 9 players who should be on your radar screen if you need to make a roster adjustment for the following week. My entry will generally be posted late Sunday afternoon or early Sunday evening.
- If you have any topics you’d like me to cover in future posts, please send in a note with your suggestion(s)!
- Baseball season ends in September, not in April. If you’re not already a subscriber to the Sherpa’s In-season Updates, you owe it to yourself to sign up today! Use this state-of-the-art tool to guide your roster moves, set your lineup, and help you evaluate trade proposals. The Sherpa has finally found a way to put his Harvard math degree and 17 years of experience as an actuary to good use! We currently have 750 players in the database and will be adding more as the season progresses. The remainder-of-season forecasts are updated daily for every player and reflect just about any move an MLB team can make (minor league call-ups, DL moves, batting order changes, closer changes, role changes, trades, suspensions, and other roster moves). You can even customize these forecasts to reflect your league’s scoring categories! Sign up today, and let the Sherpa guide you to victory!
Have a great week!
The Sherpa
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