Today we have the sixth installment from guest blogger Jason Trask for a mock (slow) draft he’s participating in with some fellow fantasy enthusiasts from Fantasy Baseball Cafe. Here are Jason’s thoughts on rounds 16-18 of his draft (we’ll cover subsequent rounds in future posts).
————————————————————–
2012 Mock Draft #1: Rounds 16-18
Round 16
Best Pick
Bud Norris 16.14 Yes, the best pick was the last pick. Norris has potential to bring elite level K’s, but of course for the Astros. The NL Central is significantly weaker (and will be even weaker if Prince signs elsewhere). 10 wins is a possibility and with 175+ K’s and an ERA under 4. This could be a steal of a pick.
Worst Pick
Mike Adams 16.07 The third RP taken at this draft position and he’s not a closer. Granted after drafting Marmol and Chapman, I might be looking for another fallback myself but not this early.
My Pick
Ryan Dempster 16.02 Almost made “worst” pick status for the round as soon as I made it. I decided to partner him with Buchholz and hope for a combination of 30 wins, 350 K’s with a combined ERA around 4.00. The key word in the last sentence of course is hope.
Notable Picks
Zack Cozart 16.01, Ryan Roberts 16.04, Matt Joyce 16.06, Justin Morneau 16.12
Round 17
Best Pick
Gaby Sanchez 17.08 Gaby ran out of gas last year and will have plenty of table setting opportunities with Reyes now in the lineup. The new Miami stadium is being predicted to be a better hitters’ park so all signs are pointing upward. Won’t be confused with the elite first basemen, but possibly could sneak onto an All Star team.
Worst Pick
Chris Heisey 17.11 After the Ryan Ludwick signing, and Bruce/Stubbs already locking into the lineup, I don’t see Heisey making much of an impact. There are still a lot of guys with full time jobs on the board, and I don’t see Heisey wedging himself into that OF regularly.
My Pick
Francisco Cordero 17.13 Another nominee for “worst” pick status as shortly after this pick, Cordero was grabbed by TOR to set up Sergio Santos. John Farrell played hot potato with the closer role last year, so Cordero could see some sporadic chances to close. That being said, Santos would have to falter pretty hard to lose his job.
Notable Picks
Jason Kubel 17.01, Grady Sizemore 17.03, Chad Billingsley 17.04, Chris Sale 17.05
Round 18
Just a note before I get to the recap. At this point in the draft, Victor Martinez was still healthy. Prince Fielders’ destination was unknown, and we still don’t know who’s going to the Super Bowl. The previous round recaps reflected early thoughts and attitudes, for now I’m only going to highlight my own picks with a few sprinkles of each round included.
My Pick
John Mayberry 18.02 Remember Jayson Werth before he signed with the Nationals? Yeah, I think Mayberry is capable, but with even more athleticism (translation: steals). He’s got the pedigree, and that’s hard to ignore. For some reason, he’s in competition with Laynce Nix, Domonic Brown, and Ty Wigginton (really?) for OF playing time. Mayberry’s got the upside here.
Round Notes
John Danks/Gavin Floyd go back to back in this round. White Sox fans better hope they can make a jump because it’s going to hard to replace Buehrle’s innings.
Brennan Boesch getting picked here seems like a great move. At the time, Prince Fielder wasn’t a Tiger. Now? How would you feel about hitting in front of Miggy/Prince this year?
Alex Presley being taken at the end of the round caused some grumbles. He’s got the “sneaky sleeper” thing going for him. I expect his stock to rise, but he’s on the Pirates so don’t expect too much attention.
If you’re interested in seeing the entire draft, check out the Google doc
Today we have the fifth installment from guest blogger Jason Trask for a mock (slow) draft he’s participating in with some fellow fantasy enthusiasts from Fantasy Baseball Cafe. Here are Jason’s thoughts on rounds 13-15 of his draft (we’ll cover subsequent rounds in future posts).
————————————————————–
2012 Mock Draft #1: Rounds 13-15
Round 13
Let’s take a look at what we have built so far with the roster. Open spots still remain with C, MI, 2 OF, UTL, 4 SP, 2 RP. 12 closers are off the board, and unless I’m going to go bottom feeding, I’d better grab one soon.
Best Pick
Johnny Cueto 13.01 He’s not going to be carrying the SP load in CIN this year. He’s gotMatt Latos to help him out and the NL Central is significantly weaker offensively. Great pick here and I’m looking for Cueto to have a solid #2 SP season.
Worst Pick
Edwin Encarnacion 13.02 Likely losing a full time gig to Lawrie in TOR. There were other 3Bs on the board that will have more guaranteed PT. BA can be a bit of a drain, and hasn’t had solid offensive numbers since leaving CIN in 2009.
My Pick
Chris Perez 13.13 With Andrew Bailey being taken one pick before me, the RP options were becoming bleak. I’ll take Perez for a decent Cleveland team that won’t blow anyone out in a wide open division. He’s also still young enough to take the leap into the top tier of RPs.
Notable Picks
Carlos Pena 13.03 (pre-TB signing), Wandy Rodriguez 13.04, Carlos Lee 13.06 (Wait, two Astros taken in this round?), Soria, Bailey, Perez, Valverde finish out the round.
Round 14
Best Pick
Adam Dunn 14.06 He can’t possibly be as bad as 2011, right? Great reasoning for people who didn’t own him on any team last year. Guess what. I owned him last year.Ozzie Guillen is gone, and Robin Ventura’s already working to keep him comfortable as a cleanup hitter.
Worst Pick
Melky Cabrera 14.13 Not sure what the SFG were hoping to get, and they flipped Jonathan Sanchez for him a few months ago. The Melkman got out of the bright lights of New York and after a quick stop in Atlanta he has the season of his life last year. I can’t envision a repeat by going to the SP haven of the NL West.
My Pick
Clay Buchholz 14.02 Boston players caught a lot of flak last year. This guy is the reason why they didn’t play October baseball. He’s my #3 SP here, with the potential upside to be an ace. There’s going to be a lot of pride on the line in that Red Sox clubhouse this year. Clay might the one with the most to prove.
Notable Picks
Logan Morrison 14.01 (MLB’s TOY*), Aroldis Chapman, 14.07, Neftali Feliz 14.08, Stephen Drew 14.11. *TOY of course stands for Twitterer of the Year. Congrats LoMo.
Round 15
Best Pick
Jamie Garcia 15.06 With a Wainwright comeback on the horizon, Garcia is now slotted as #3 in the STL rotation. He likely won’t bring a lot of strikeouts to the table, but he’s about as effective as you can get for a young lefthander. A poor man’s Cliff Lee here.
Worst Pick
Rajai Davis 15.07 Likely the odd man out in the TOR outfield. He’s not going to replace Bautista or Rasmus and the Thames/Snider platoon in RF appears set. Unless he gets traded in the spring, I don’t see why a very part timer would go in the 15th round.
My Pick
Emilio Bonifacio 15.13 King Sherpa posted his projections about Bonifacio and I had a hard time believing it. Will he get full time AB? I don’t know, but what I do know is that his new manager LOVES guys like him. Speedsters that can play all over the place. He’s a hybrid of Juan Pierre but with MI/CI eligibility.
Notable Picks
Gordon Beckham 15.03, Torii Hunter 15.11, Alex Rios 15.12
If you’re interested on seeing the entire draft, check out the Google doc
Today we have the fourth installment from guest blogger Jason Trask for a mock (slow) draft he’s participating in with some fellow fantasy enthusiasts from Fantasy Baseball Cafe. Here are Jason’s thoughts on rounds 10-12 of his draft (we’ll cover subsequent rounds in future posts).
————————————————————–
2012 Mock Draft #1: Rounds 10-12
Round 10
The first six picks taken in Round 10 were 3B, C, 1B, SS, P, 2B. We’re not yet 150 picks into the draft, but this upcoming round felt like bizarro world when it was done. My strategy shifted toward positions of need, with an emphasis on finding players likely to perform above average at their position.
Best Pick
Max Scherzer 10.5 He gets to play Tonto to Justin Verlander. He also pitches in a fairly weak division. BB totals went down, but H allowed went up. He’s still figuring out how to pitch, but absolutely has the tools to be a 18 game winner.
Worst Pick
Kendry Morales 10.03 The 12th 1B taken off the board was a little puzzling. Scott’s mentioned the glut of players that can fill 1B/OF/DH positions for the Angels, and Morales hasn’t taken a ML at bat since May of 2010. I’m sure the lack of low upside 1B options was the reason here.
My Pick
Jesus Montero 10.02 I have my catcher spot filled for now. Of course within days, he goes from hitting in Yankee stadium to the SafecoCanyon. People have been throwing out the offensive potential comparisons to players like Mike Piazza, but I’ll hedge my bets here and hope he’s not Michael Barrett.
Notable Picks
Mike Moustakas 10.01, Derek Jeter 10.04, David Ortiz 10.09
Round 11
My preparation for the 2012 Fantasy Baseball season actually started just around Thanksgiving. I was asked by the wife if I wanted anything for Christmas and I figured why not ask for Ron Shandler’s 2012 Forecaster. My wife pawned the request off to my mother. (I love my wife) Christmas day approached, and as I opened it something caught me by surprise. Joey Votto was on the cover…My mother bought me a brand new copy of the 2011 Forecaster. Apparently, Adam Dunn and Dan Uggla should continue their remarkable consistency despite their new surroundings.
Best Pick
Nick Markakis 12.10 Unlikely to be ready for Spring Training due to an abdominal issue. He is a lock for a .285 BA, he’ll only hit 15-20 HR, but his R/RBI totals have fluctuated wildly. The Orioles have been waiting for him to break out for years, and he’s the most veteran 28 year old that no one cares about.
Worst Pick
Aaron Hill 11.05 Had a dream season in ’09 that no one possibly saw coming. He’ll be hitting in front of J. Upton, but getting on base is just as much of an issue here as it is for teammate Chris Young. My thoughts about Young were stated before, too bad Hill reaches base at an ever lower rate.
My Pick
Cameron Maybin 11.13 A #10 overall pick in one of the greatest drafts in MLB history. He’s the same age as Justin Upton, Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce, and Colby Rasmus. He was drafted ahead of all of them except Upton. If he didn’t play in San Diego he’d get much more attention. I think he’ll get it this year.
Notable Picks
Ike Davis 11.01, Ryan Madson 11.03, Cory Luebke 11.09, Chris Carpenter 11.14
Round 12
Some questions were answered here in this round.
Where will Yu go?
Does anyone need a Belt to compliment their outfit?
Is it too early to go for the Gold(schmidt)?
Has anyone taken an Astro yet?
What a better way to celebrate three Angels being drafted by also drafting a player who shares his name with a serial killer?
(Answers can be found below)
Best Pick
Yu Darvish 12.09 Yu bet this caught some attention. We’re now just outside the Top 150 and he hasn’t signed yet with Texas. He’s going to get run support and also favorable matchups against Seattle and Oakland. He’s also going to have the advantage of hitters seeing him for the first time. If you don’t think that matters, you didn’t see the Rangers get shut down by an unknown Matt Moore in the LDS last year.
Worst Pick
Mark Trumbo 12.11 Huh? He became the Angels’ 1B by default last year as Kendrys Morales couldn’t recover from the horrific leg injury. This pick makes sense if the Angels were to move him to 3B, or platoon him with Bobby Abreu. I’m still having a hard time seeing him as anything other than trade bait in Spring Training.
My Pick
Paul Goldschmidt 12.02 Yup, I might have drafted the 2012 version of Mark Trumbo earlier in the round. I used this pick to fill my CI spot and I’m willing to take the risk here.He also had the faith of Kirk Gibson on a division winning club. I’m not going to doubt Kirk Gibson.
Notable Picks
Peter Bourjos 12.01, Jordan Walden 12.05, Brandon Belt 12.07, Dexter Fowler 12.14
No, still no Astros.
If you’re interested on seeing the entire draft, check out the Google doc
Today we have the third installment from guest blogger Jason Trask for a mock (slow) draft he’s participating in with some fellow fantasy enthusiasts from Fantasy Baseball Cafe. Here are Jason’s thoughts on rounds 7-9 of his draft (we’ll cover subsequent rounds in future posts).
————————————————————–
2012 Mock Draft #1: Rounds 7-9
Round 7
We’ve made it through the first turn, where the core of your team is created. I’m of the opinion that if any of your top 6 picks make you nervous, here is where you can try to get security before attacking roster needs. Strengthening your CI, MI or OF can give that security without having to scramble and look for a marginal replacement later.
Best Pick
Howie Kendrick 7.02 Eligible all over the place, and just signed a new contract extension.Think about this, how would you like to spend the next 4 years hitting in front of Albert Pujols? Howie should finally be able to have that “breakout” that we’ve been anticipating for about 3 years.
Worst Pick
Jonathan Papelbon 7.14 With only one SP taken, and no 3B taken as of yet at this slot, I was mildly surprised to see Papelbon go here. Wainwright was taken with the next pick at 8.01, but considering what was still on the board, it was risky.
My Pick
Matt Latos 7.13 I wanted to get a 2nd SP to complement CC here and Latos will go to the NL Central where some lineups are proverbial K factories. 200 K should come easy for the 24 year old, and with a young, surging Reds team 18+ W is reachable.
Notable Picks
Jon Lester 7.03, Drew Stubbs 7.04, CJ Wilson 7.05, Joe Mauer 7.07
Round 8
We’re solidly through the first few tiers of SP at this point, and you can certainly see with the picks what strategy is being used. This round is a perfect example of why a January Mock can be “mocked” for what happens going forward.
Best Pick
Adam Wainwright 8.01 I think this is a great pick. It was such a good pick, that I would have taken him next. Those who drafted Wainwright at this time last year had to get him 4 or 5 rounds earlier. He’s proven that he can do it, and the recipients of Tommy John surgery are proving to be less risky than even 5 years ago.
Worst Pick
Matt Moore 8.09 He’s thrown less than 20 total innings in the big leagues. The Tampa Bay Rays have developed a tremendous track record of young pitching arms, but this seems a bit silly. I will repeat the first sentence. He’s thrown less than 20 total innings in the big leagues.
My Pick
Dee Gordon 8.02 Skinny Swag* will have the SS job for LA. I also fully expect him to hit in front of Matt Kemp in that lineup, if not leadoff. The AVG might not be better than .260 but his potential for elite SB could make him the MI version of Michael Bourn.
Newest Yankee Michael Pineda 8.03, Brandon Beachy 8.06, Ubaldo Jimenez 8.10, Jordan Zimmerman 8.14
Round 9
This is where I started to worry a little about “insuring” my roster with solid picks in positions of need. Still had no Catcher, and only 2 OF and SP up to this point. With 24 picks between Round 8 and Round 9, I felt like I couldn’t take many risks with my picks.
Best Pick
Andre Ethier 9.06 I drafted him early last year, kept the faith for a few months and then just mostly felt bad for him after the All Star Break. His AVG was the same, but his SLG dropped almost 80 points from the norm. Knee surgery in September confirmed a lot of suspicions and as a result he’s a great buy low candidate for 2012.
Worst Pick
Chris Young 9.10 I’m fully aware of the value of 20 HR/20 SB guys, but I’m also very aware that his highest AVG in the last 5 years is .257. It doesn’t help that he’s struck out over 130 times in each of those seasons. If you’re going to be at the top of a ML lineup, you need to get on base more than 32% of the time.
My Pick
Ricky Romero 9.13 I had a choice to take a SP/C/OF here and went with the best of what was on the board. He’s 27, and has had his ERA go down and IP and K’s go up. Here’s a great stat from the 2012 season. In 225 IP, he posted an ERA of under 3.00 while giving up 26 HR. He’s learned how to miss bats in the AL East and will be a solid #3 SP.
*The Houston Astros are now the only team remaining with not only no hitters taken, but no pitchers taken either. This should be fairly common in most draft this year. Sorry Astros fans.
If you’re interested on seeing the entire draft, check out the Google doc
Today we have the second installment from guest blogger Jason Trask for a mock (slow) draft he’s participating in with some fellow fantasy enthusiasts from Fantasy Baseball Cafe. Here are Jason’s thoughts on rounds 4-6 of his draft (we’ll cover subsequent rounds in future posts).
————————————————————–
2012 Mock Draft #1: Rounds 4-6
Round 4
Most of the top-tier players are gone going into Round 4, yet with no C or RP had been taken yet. Round 4 brought many surprises as many younger unproven players started to get picked.
Best Pick
Alex Rodriguez 4.05 Taken right after Youkilis, the 3B tier became depleted after this point. No longer a Top 5 pick, but still able to produce solid 2nd Round numbers from a very shallow 3B field.
Worst Pick
Elvis Andrus 4.08 Back to back SSs taken at this spot, and probably a few rounds too early for someone that hits in the bottom of a potent Texas lineup. Unless he can get his BA to .285 or .290 levels, it didn’t make sense to grab an OF here.
My Pick
Dan Uggla 4.02 Is he a .230 hitter? I doubt it. He had some poor luck last year and needed a 31-game hitting streak just to get his BA over .220. Hard to ignore that he once again delivered 30+ HR, and at 2B, I’ll take it every time.
Notable Picks
Eric Hosmer 4.07
Brett Lawrie 4.12
Chase Utley 4.14
Round 5
Round 4 raised a few eyebrows as some fairly unproven youngsters were taken. As another drafter said, “Welcome to early mocks, where everyone wants to be the one to predict a breakout season.”. I haven’t yet filled either 1B/3B spot to this point and I was hoping there would be a run on SP/C/OFs here.
Best Pick
Aramis Ramirez 5.01 3B officially becomes a scrap heap once this pick is made. I’m surprised that unproven Lawrie went before Aramis, but grabbing the last real power-hitting 3B is a great pick.
Worst Pick
James Shields 5.12 The first SP taken in awhile, and I think it may have been a bit of a reach. As good as Shields was in ’11, it’ll be tough to repeat. There were others I would have taken here at SP, I just don’t see Shields as a clear #1 SP.
My Pick
Paul Konerko 5.13 Sticking with offense, and needing a 1B I grabbed Konerko here who’s showing no signs of slowing down. Robin Ventura’s hinting at using him more at DH to keep him healthy throughout the season, and I’m very happy with this pick.
Notable Picks
Mike Napoli 5.02
Michael Bourn 5.05
Michael Morse 5.06
Stephen Strasburg 5.07
Desmond Jennings 5.08
Jason Heyward 5.14 (youth movement indeed)
Round 6
The first 4 rounds certainly dictated this round as players were now taken to fill positional needs. The top catchers went in Round 5, and a few bounceback candidates started to appear in Round 6. Round highlights will be provided going forward.
Best Pick
Ryan Howard 6.01 Great pick if healthy. All reports have been positive, but there’s no way of knowing if he’ll be ready for opening day.
Worst Pick
Craig Kimbrel 6.06 First RP taken. Kimbrel was about a reliable as you could get, but my gut says it’s too early to think RP.
My Pick
Michael Young 6.02 I was able to get my 3B here, and love that he’s still the heart and soul of the Texas lineup. He’ll bring the BA and R, but probably won’t wow anyone with power numbers.
Notable picks
Alex Gordon 6.03
Mark Reynolds 6.10
Buster Posey 6.11
Lance Berkman 6.13
If you’re interested on seeing the entire draft, check out the Google doc
Today we have a guest blogger - Jason Trask. Jason hails from Red Sox country, he’s the General Manager of the South Shore Baseball Club by day and an avid fantasy baseball league participant by night (sometimes very late at night). He also has a beautiful 3-yr-old named Bailey, who will no doubt enjoy rooting for the Sox’ new closer this season.
Jason is currently participating in a slow mock draft with some fellow fantasy enthusiasts from Fantasy Baseball Cafe - here are his thoughts on the first three rounds of his draft (we’ll cover subsequent rounds in future posts). Take it away, Jason!
————————————————————–
2012 Mock Draft #1
This is where it starts, the most wonderful time of year indeed. The reset buttons are hit and everyone brings their hopes and dreams of fantasy baseball glory to the forefront. Draft strategies are tested and mocked. Keepers are debated. Thousands of productive hours of work, sleep and family attention are lost. Now is when unproven talent can create debates rivaling the virtues of potential Republican Party candidates. The first signal flare of the 2012 Election season was launched with the Iowa Caucus. The first signal flare of the 2012 Fantasy Baseball season starts with mock drafting.
My New Years’ Resolution? I don’t want this to be the launching pad that features me on A&E’s Intervention: Fantasy Baseball.
This is a 14 team 5×5 mixed snake draft with 23 active roster spots and 7 bench players.I picked 13th in the odd-numbered rounds and 2nd in the even-numbered rounds.
Round 1
The first pick off the board was Albert Pujols. I can envision a park effect of going from hitting regularly against the Cubs, Pirates, Reds and Brewers (all hitters’ parks) to the spacious Oakland Coliseum and the two headed monster of King Felix and Michael Pineda in Seattle. Aside from that, there’s no one else I’d take in this position. Hanley being taken at the turn with 1.14 opened a few eyes, but with upcoming CI eligibility it could be a steal.
Best Picks
Evan Longoria 1.12 I had hoped Longoria would fall to me with the next pick, but this is a solid pick for a deep league at a fairly thin position. Longoria battled some injury issues and suffered from some bad luck before turning it on in the second half.
Worst Picks
Justin Upton 1.08 It’s hard to call this a “Worst” pick, when I had my eye on him at the end of the round. I think he went about 4 or 5 picks too soon. He made a sizable jump in production across the board, but I am not a fan of his supporting cast.
My Pick
Jacoby Ellsbury 1.13 Longoria was taken with the prior pick so Ellsbury became my plan B. I do not expect him to match his HR totals, but he’s basically a lock for 200+ RBI/R and 30+ SB. I feel confident that I can make up the difference in HR in later rounds.
Round 2
No pitchers were taken in Round 1, so I expected a few of the SP horses to be grabbed here. Halladay and Kershaw went back to back with Verlander landing at 2.11. No Ryan Braun in Round 2, with Holliday/McCutchen ending the round after recent first rounders Jose Reyes and David Wright fell to the middle of round 2.
Best Pick
Roy Halladay 2.07 There’s never a bad place to draft Doc. I was tempted to grab him early in Round 2. The last time we saw him he was outdueled by Chris Carpenter in the NLDS. Halladay’s the type that will be motivated for a monster year as a result.
Worst Pick
Mike Stanton 2.09 A round early here for Stanton for me. He has the upside, but needs to improve in BA and R. He’ll be a hot commodity in drafts going forward, but I still feel this is about 8 or 10 picks too early.
My Pick
Josh Hamilton 2.02 What Ellsbury can give in SB, Hamilton can reciprocate in HR. I almost went with Pedroia with this pick (he went next), but couldn’t turn away a chance to land another Top 5 OF here. I think last year was Hamilton’s floor and didn’t see much risk here after the turn.
Round 3
The SP trinity of VerKerDay all went in Round 2. 1B and OF led with 16 of the first 28 picks. Still no C or RP drafted, but SPs should be going quickly in the next couple of rounds.
Best Pick
Carl Crawford 3.12 A regular Top 20 pick taken at the end of Round 3 could be one of the best picks of the draft. Another year in Boston should give him some comfort, but I worry about his SB totals. I don’t expect much more than 15 HR, but his other counting stats should revert back to norm.
Worst Pick
Starlin Castro 3.07 Taken as the 4th SS off the board in a deep draft, but aside from a high BA there’s not much else there to count on. He’s young, he’s got talent, but I worry about his ability to produce HR and RBI totals.
My Pick
CC Sabathia 3.13 SPs were flying off the board at this point (Felix, Cliff Lee, Lincecum and Grienke) so I felt comfortable taking CC as an anchor here. A boring pick, but I’ll expect 18+ W, 200+K, and a reasonable WHIP and ERA to go with it.
If you’re interested on seeing the entire draft, check out the Google doc
Yesterday I took part in an industry experts’ mock draft using the World Championship of Fantasy Baseball format. For those unfamiliar with this format, it’s a 14-team 5×5 mixed league that requires a 24-man active roster (14 hitters; 10 pitchers) and an 8-man bench. As you can imagine, even though it was a mixed league, by the time we got down to the last few rounds, we were really scraping the bottom of the barrel. I had the 7th pick in a snake draft - I purposely chose that position to see what would happen if I were shut out from the players who typically go in the first few picks (i.e. - Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, A-Rod, Utley, Braun).
Just wanted to let you know that I’ll be participating in a fantasy baseball mock draft tonight at Mock Draft Central. The draft starts at 8pm Eastern and features 12 industry experts. The format is a 5×5 mixed league (Hitting Categories: AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB; Pitching Categories: W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP). If you want to listen to some great, colorful commentary as the draft unfolds, tune in to Lenny Melnick and Tony Cincotta, who will be describing the draft on Blog Talk Radio. I have the 10th pick in the first round - guess I won’t be picking Albert Pujols or Hanley Ramirez!
Here’s tonight’s drafting order:
Tim McLeod, RotoRob
Daniel Dobish, OPEN Sports
Chris McDonnell, FantasyBaseball.com
Paul Bourdett, RotoExperts
Todd Zola, Mastersball
Tom Kessenich, Fanball & National Fantasy Baseball Championship
Saturday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars Mixed League auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan. This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers). Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers. Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster. The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.
I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Saturday’s auction.
Projections by Team - Hitting Categories
Owner
AB
AVG
HR
RBI
SB
R
Behrens
6,720
.280
244
1,042
126
1,063
Carroll
5,129
.286
180
785
70
776
Cushing
6,290
.281
214
895
165
971
Dennis
7,293
.280
277
1,104
150
1,118
Gonos
6,526
.276
259
1,027
97
1,069
Hoyos
6,983
.280
205
975
223
1,046
Karabell
7,492
.272
294
1,127
161
1,177
Kastner
7,324
.279
227
999
165
1,111
Liss
6,053
.279
231
887
123
917
Mack
7,009
.273
281
1,062
123
1,073
Patton
6,393
.278
244
924
206
1,024
Petera
6,668
.273
262
961
144
978
Pliml
6,908
.292
210
945
204
1,054
Roberts
6,691
.277
248
1,007
90
986
Salfino
6,905
.274
276
1,049
139
1,076
Schechter
7,404
.283
245
1,058
172
1,144
Van Hook
7,400
.284
256
1,067
171
1,059
Projections by Team - Pitching Categories
Owner
IP
W
SV
ERA
WHIP
K
Behrens
1,211
69
66
4.11
1.22
1,132
Carroll
1,376
86
41
3.94
1.22
1,207
Cushing
1,261
75
32
4.50
1.35
1,099
Dennis
934
56
20
5.12
1.27
820
Gonos
1,251
80
64
3.91
1.24
1,170
Hoyos
1,185
69
53
4.25
1.28
1,009
Karabell
1,333
75
58
4.40
1.28
1,158
Kastner
1,452
87
54
4.22
1.27
1,219
Liss
1,228
74
95
4.03
1.23
1,096
Mack
1,375
84
72
4.27
1.28
1,274
Patton
720
39
84
4.26
1.24
560
Petera
1,191
74
53
3.96
1.28
1,019
Pliml
1,032
57
27
4.27
1.28
891
Roberts
1,313
77
40
3.93
1.24
1,193
Salfino
1,270
75
43
4.22
1.35
1,034
Schechter
1,335
81
81
4.16
1.29
1,063
Van Hook
1,032
57
45
3.95
1.24
809
Projected Standings
Owner
H Pts
P Pts
Total Pts
Schechter
66
52
118
Van Hook
63
54.5
117.5
Behrens
46.5
52.5
99
Gonos
41
58
99
Karabell
62
34
96
Kastner
46.5
47
93.5
Dennis
65
28
93
Patton
40.5
52
92.5
Mack
49.5
39
88.5
Salfino
50
38
88
Hoyos
44
41
85
Liss
23.5
60.5
84
Petera
44
41
85
Roberts
32
49
81
Pliml
48
30.5
78.5
Carroll
20
56
76
Cushing
34.5
24
58.5
Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”. However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant. I’m sure if you asked them, many, if not all, of the 17 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team. Such is the nature of the beast.
Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:
At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so. This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction. Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup. I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.
Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings give a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction. Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!
Yesterday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars NL-only auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan. This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers). Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers. Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster. The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.
I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Sunday’s auction.
Projections by Team - Hitting Categories
Owner
AB
AVG
HR
RBI
SB
R
Cockroft
5,987
.284
193
843
180
946
Hertz
6,205
.275
209
893
101
885
Kreutzer
5,333
.276
156
729
156
792
Leibowitz
5,426
.281
207
768
139
828
Lombardo
4,082
.282
156
658
58
628
Melnick
5,313
.265
213
783
112
858
Pianowski
7,033
.272
263
1,062
73
1,002
Ravitz
6,003
.279
193
784
155
884
Schwartz
5,007
.285
190
731
83
762
Walton
5,787
.262
191
798
132
887
Wilderman
5,587
.276
178
767
156
838
Wilton
5,543
.268
180
745
107
733
Zola
5,252
.284
184
729
105
760
Projections by Team - Pitching Categories
Owner
IP
W
SV
ERA
WHIP
K
Cockroft
1,220
68
31
4.06
1.27
1,130
Hertz
1,028
57
54
4.71
1.38
742
Kreutzer
1,416
82
0
4.18
1.30
1,017
Leibowitz
1,079
63
37
4.33
1.27
880
Lombardo
1,111
65
42
4.33
1.27
970
Melnick
1,078
58
12
4.51
1.31
989
Pianowski
1,156
62
65
3.99
1.33
1,014
Ravitz
1,068
63
72
3.80
1.25
942
Schwartz
954
54
74
4.25
1.30
786
Walton
1,243
69
38
4.60
1.28
981
Wilderman
995
53
55
4.67
1.32
928
Wilton
1,150
65
53
4.37
1.34
982
Zola
987
56
37
4.00
1.23
852
Projected Standings
Owner
H Pts
P Pts
Total Pts
Ravitz
44.5
52.5
97
Cockroft
56.5
36
92.5
Pianowski
45
35
80
Leibowitz
41
39
80
Walton
37
35
72
Schwartz
30
41
71
Hertz
42
28
70
Zola
26.5
42.5
69
Wilderman
33.5
26
59.5
Kreutzer
27.5
32
59.5
Melnick
37
20
57
Lombardo
14.5
38.5
53
Wilton
20
29.5
49.5
Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”. However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant. I’m sure if you asked them, many, if not all, of the 13 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team. Such is the nature of the beast.
Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:
At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so. This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction. Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup. I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.
Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings gives a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction. Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!
