Yesterday I took part in an industry experts’ mock draft using the World Championship of Fantasy Baseball format. For those unfamiliar with this format, it’s a 14-team 5×5 mixed league that requires a 24-man active roster (14 hitters; 10 pitchers) and an 8-man bench. As you can imagine, even though it was a mixed league, by the time we got down to the last few rounds, we were really scraping the bottom of the barrel. I had the 7th pick in a snake draft - I purposely chose that position to see what would happen if I were shut out from the players who typically go in the first few picks (i.e. - Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, A-Rod, Utley, Braun).
Just wanted to let you know that I’ll be participating in a fantasy baseball mock draft tonight at Mock Draft Central. The draft starts at 8pm Eastern and features 12 industry experts. The format is a 5×5 mixed league (Hitting Categories: AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB; Pitching Categories: W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP). If you want to listen to some great, colorful commentary as the draft unfolds, tune in to Lenny Melnick and Tony Cincotta, who will be describing the draft on Blog Talk Radio. I have the 10th pick in the first round - guess I won’t be picking Albert Pujols or Hanley Ramirez!
Here’s tonight’s drafting order:
Tim McLeod, RotoRob
Daniel Dobish, OPEN Sports
Chris McDonnell, FantasyBaseball.com
Paul Bourdett, RotoExperts
Todd Zola, Mastersball
Tom Kessenich, Fanball & National Fantasy Baseball Championship
Saturday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars Mixed League auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan. This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers). Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers. Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster. The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.
I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Saturday’s auction.
Projections by Team - Hitting Categories
Owner
AB
AVG
HR
RBI
SB
R
Behrens
6,720
.280
244
1,042
126
1,063
Carroll
5,129
.286
180
785
70
776
Cushing
6,290
.281
214
895
165
971
Dennis
7,293
.280
277
1,104
150
1,118
Gonos
6,526
.276
259
1,027
97
1,069
Hoyos
6,983
.280
205
975
223
1,046
Karabell
7,492
.272
294
1,127
161
1,177
Kastner
7,324
.279
227
999
165
1,111
Liss
6,053
.279
231
887
123
917
Mack
7,009
.273
281
1,062
123
1,073
Patton
6,393
.278
244
924
206
1,024
Petera
6,668
.273
262
961
144
978
Pliml
6,908
.292
210
945
204
1,054
Roberts
6,691
.277
248
1,007
90
986
Salfino
6,905
.274
276
1,049
139
1,076
Schechter
7,404
.283
245
1,058
172
1,144
Van Hook
7,400
.284
256
1,067
171
1,059
Projections by Team - Pitching Categories
Owner
IP
W
SV
ERA
WHIP
K
Behrens
1,211
69
66
4.11
1.22
1,132
Carroll
1,376
86
41
3.94
1.22
1,207
Cushing
1,261
75
32
4.50
1.35
1,099
Dennis
934
56
20
5.12
1.27
820
Gonos
1,251
80
64
3.91
1.24
1,170
Hoyos
1,185
69
53
4.25
1.28
1,009
Karabell
1,333
75
58
4.40
1.28
1,158
Kastner
1,452
87
54
4.22
1.27
1,219
Liss
1,228
74
95
4.03
1.23
1,096
Mack
1,375
84
72
4.27
1.28
1,274
Patton
720
39
84
4.26
1.24
560
Petera
1,191
74
53
3.96
1.28
1,019
Pliml
1,032
57
27
4.27
1.28
891
Roberts
1,313
77
40
3.93
1.24
1,193
Salfino
1,270
75
43
4.22
1.35
1,034
Schechter
1,335
81
81
4.16
1.29
1,063
Van Hook
1,032
57
45
3.95
1.24
809
Projected Standings
Owner
H Pts
P Pts
Total Pts
Schechter
66
52
118
Van Hook
63
54.5
117.5
Behrens
46.5
52.5
99
Gonos
41
58
99
Karabell
62
34
96
Kastner
46.5
47
93.5
Dennis
65
28
93
Patton
40.5
52
92.5
Mack
49.5
39
88.5
Salfino
50
38
88
Hoyos
44
41
85
Liss
23.5
60.5
84
Petera
44
41
85
Roberts
32
49
81
Pliml
48
30.5
78.5
Carroll
20
56
76
Cushing
34.5
24
58.5
Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”. However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant. I’m sure if you asked them, many, if not all, of the 17 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team. Such is the nature of the beast.
Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:
At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so. This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction. Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup. I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.
Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings give a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction. Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!
Yesterday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars NL-only auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan. This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers). Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers. Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster. The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.
I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Sunday’s auction.
Projections by Team - Hitting Categories
Owner
AB
AVG
HR
RBI
SB
R
Cockroft
5,987
.284
193
843
180
946
Hertz
6,205
.275
209
893
101
885
Kreutzer
5,333
.276
156
729
156
792
Leibowitz
5,426
.281
207
768
139
828
Lombardo
4,082
.282
156
658
58
628
Melnick
5,313
.265
213
783
112
858
Pianowski
7,033
.272
263
1,062
73
1,002
Ravitz
6,003
.279
193
784
155
884
Schwartz
5,007
.285
190
731
83
762
Walton
5,787
.262
191
798
132
887
Wilderman
5,587
.276
178
767
156
838
Wilton
5,543
.268
180
745
107
733
Zola
5,252
.284
184
729
105
760
Projections by Team - Pitching Categories
Owner
IP
W
SV
ERA
WHIP
K
Cockroft
1,220
68
31
4.06
1.27
1,130
Hertz
1,028
57
54
4.71
1.38
742
Kreutzer
1,416
82
0
4.18
1.30
1,017
Leibowitz
1,079
63
37
4.33
1.27
880
Lombardo
1,111
65
42
4.33
1.27
970
Melnick
1,078
58
12
4.51
1.31
989
Pianowski
1,156
62
65
3.99
1.33
1,014
Ravitz
1,068
63
72
3.80
1.25
942
Schwartz
954
54
74
4.25
1.30
786
Walton
1,243
69
38
4.60
1.28
981
Wilderman
995
53
55
4.67
1.32
928
Wilton
1,150
65
53
4.37
1.34
982
Zola
987
56
37
4.00
1.23
852
Projected Standings
Owner
H Pts
P Pts
Total Pts
Ravitz
44.5
52.5
97
Cockroft
56.5
36
92.5
Pianowski
45
35
80
Leibowitz
41
39
80
Walton
37
35
72
Schwartz
30
41
71
Hertz
42
28
70
Zola
26.5
42.5
69
Wilderman
33.5
26
59.5
Kreutzer
27.5
32
59.5
Melnick
37
20
57
Lombardo
14.5
38.5
53
Wilton
20
29.5
49.5
Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”. However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant. I’m sure if you asked them, many, if not all, of the 13 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team. Such is the nature of the beast.
Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:
At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so. This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction. Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup. I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.
Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings gives a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction. Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!
This past Saturday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars AL-only auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan. This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers). Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers. Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster. The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.
I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Saturday’s auction.
Projections by Team - Hitting Categories
Owner
AB
AVG
HR
RBI
SB
R
Berry
5,428
.277
205
782
102
754
Collette
5,913
.269
203
816
150
845
Erickson
5,388
.284
170
772
135
833
Grey
6,608
.276
218
946
177
1,014
Michaels
5,657
.277
173
789
126
859
Moyer
6,354
.283
226
972
111
975
Peterson
6,158
.276
228
897
94
943
Shandler
5,786
.281
188
806
129
890
Sheehan
5,485
.277
161
686
153
857
Siano
5,400
.281
170
781
87
851
Walker
6,397
.265
232
907
94
933
Wolf/Colton
5,261
.284
168
749
112
765
Projections by Team - Pitching Categories
Owner
IP
W
SV
ERA
WHIP
K
Berry
977
58
41
3.96
1.21
935
Collette
1,142
69
40
4.67
1.21
932
Erickson
1,026
63
51
4.64
1.34
853
Grey
823
48
54
3.82
1.30
654
Michaels
1,249
78
38
4.00
1.29
982
Moyer
1,211
77
33
4.42
1.27
949
Peterson
1,040
61
58
4.52
1.29
894
Shandler
956
56
19
4.81
1.33
826
Sheehan
915
56
31
4.45
1.25
806
Siano
1,034
63
46
4.20
1.29
843
Walker
1,013
63
44
4.15
1.33
907
Wolf/Colton
1,028
61
51
3.70
1.29
926
Projected Standings
Owner
H Pts
P Pts
Total Pts
Grey
47
39
86
Moyer
48
31
79
Peterson
36.5
33.5
70
Walker
34.5
32
66.5
Collette
31
33
64
Michaels
30
33
63
Siano
21.5
40
61.5
Wolf/Colton
22
38
60
Sheehan
29
30.5
59.5
Erickson
29.5
29.5
59
Berry
24
34
58
Shandler
37
16.5
53.5
Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”. However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant. I’m sure if you asked them, many, if not all, of the 12 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team. Such is the nature of the beast.
Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:
At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so. This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction. Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup. I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.
Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings gives a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction. Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!
Just wanted to let all of you in Sherpaville know that Fantasy Baseball Sherpa was featured in Andy Behrens’ Roto Arcade blog that appears regularly on Yahoo Fantasy Sports! We participated last week in a 16-team Pro-Am league that will be played out during the course of the 2009 season - should be a lot of fun! Following the results of the draft there’s a Q&A with each of the league’s participants. Since I was drafting out of the #12 spot, my segment appears ~3/4 of the way through the entry.
In leagues that allow daily lineup changes some fantasy owners return year after year to the tactic of streaming pitchers as predictably as the swallows return each year to San Juan Capistrano. Many fantasy owners despise this polarizing tactic even more than they despise the thought of seven-figure bonuses being paid to AIG execs. Whichever side of the debate you come down on, unless your league rules are designed specifically to discourage it, there’s probably at least one owner in your league who employs it.
Simply put, owners seek to decide which pitcher among several with similar talent (or lack thereof) to use in their starting lineup based on the pitchers’ upcoming matchups. These decisions are usually based on perceptions of teams’ offensive capabilities (or lack thereof). However, there is actually a way to quantify teams’ offensive abilities that can guide owners in their selection of pitchers.
Here’s how the method works. Decide on the hitting team categories you wish to use to measure a team’s offensive strength. Ideally, these would mirror the pitching categories your league uses, but that’s not essential. For instance, if your league uses the standard 5 pitching categories of Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP, you might choose team losses (which is a good choice for both Wins & Saves), hitters’ strikeouts, runs scored, and walks+hits. Next, decide whether each hitting category you’ve chosen is a “positive” statistic (e.g. - runs scored, walks+hits) or a “negative” statistic (e.g. - losses, strikeouts).
For the “positive” stats give the league leading team a score of 1.00 and all other teams a score based on the ratio of their result to the league leading team’s result. For example, if the league leading team were projected to score 900 runs, a team projected to score 720 runs would receive a score of .80 ( = 720/900). For “negative” stats give the league leading team a score of -1.00 and all other teams a score based on the ratio of their result to the league leading team’s result. For example, if the league leading team were projected to strike out 1000 times, then a team that’s projected to strike out 750 times would receive a score of -0.75. By adding together a team’s result in each of the categories you’ve decided to measure, you can get a good gauge of their hitters’ abilities (at least from a fantasy perspective!) The higher a team’s hitting score, the better, so if you’re trying to select a team to stream a pitcher against, you’d want to pick teams with a low team hitting score.
For example, if I decide to measure a team’s hitting capabilities using the standard categories of AVG, Runs Scored, Home Runs, RBIs, and Stolen Bases, the maximum team hitting score would be 5.00, since all five are “positive” categories, and the maximum score in each category is 1.00 (I’ve used a proxy statistic for AVG). Using these five categories, here’s how I’d rank the 30 teams heading into the 2009 season (followed by their projected score on a scale with a maximum value of 5.00).
Washington 2.58
San Diego 2.70
Arizona 2.96
Pittsburgh 3.03
Detroit 3.10
San Francisco 3.10
Toronto 3.19
Chicago White Sox 3.25
Florida Marlins 3.25
Seattle 3.27
Atlanta 3.29
St. Louis 3.31
Kansas City 3.32
Colorado 3.36
Cincinnati 3.39
Milwaukee 3.42
Houston 3.45
Oakland 3.50
Cleveland 3.51
Minnesota 3.69
Tampa Bay 3.69
New York Mets 3.79
Los Angeles Dodgers 3.96
Philadelphia Phillies 4.02
Boston Red Sox 4.04
Baltimore Orioles 4.07
Texas Rangers 4.13
Chicago Cubs 4.28
New York Yankees 4.48
Los Angeles Angels 4.54
The exact rankings aren’t as important as the tiers that are formed. For example, using the hitting categories outlined above, there’s not much to pick from between the Phillies and the Red Sox, but there’s a huge difference between either of these teams and the Pirates & Diamondbacks.
These rankings will vary somewhat based on the hitting categories you choose, but again, I suspect the Phillies and Red Sox would fare much better than the Pirates and Diamondbacks for just about any imaginable group of hitting categories you’d select.
I’ve been asked a number of times recently by potential customers whether the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa Preseason Player Projections & Rankings are updated throughout Spring Training - the answer is an emphatic “YES!” I just made a number of updates this morning - no one in Sherpaville will be going to their draft or auction with outdated information if I can help it!
Just wanted to let everyone in Sherpaville know that I’ll be participating in a fantasy baseball mock draft tonight at Mock Draft Central. The draft starts at 8pm Eastern Time and features 12 industry experts. The format is a 5×5 mixed league (Hitting Categories: AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB; Pitching Categories: W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP). If you want to listen to some great, colorful commentary as the draft unfolds, tune in to Paul Greco, Lenny Melnick, and Tony Cincotta of Fantasy Pros 911 who will be describing the draft on Blog Talk Radio. I have the 1st pick in the first round (hmm, guess I won’t be taking A-Rod!).