I realize that most of you are now done with your auctions and drafts for the 2010 fantasy baseball season, but I thought it might still be worthwhile to share some thoughts with you on various situations and strategies I observed during the last month or so. . .
I just accepted an invitation to play in a fantasy baseball league the other day. “What’s the big deal”? I hear you say (hypothetically speaking, of course; I can’t really read your thoughts - that would be creepy). “You do this for a living - you’re supposed to play in fantasy baseball leagues, aren’t you?”
Well, yes, I am (thanks for asking!), but this marks the 17th league I’ll be participating in for the 2010 season (I’m not proud . . . or tired). While I am amused that the number of leagues I’m playing in is almost double my shoe size, my real reason for mentioning this is that I’m here to help you (just like the guv’mint!) Just for good measure I’ve also participated in several mock drafts and helped out with the Tout Wars auctions the weekend before last at Citi Field. Whether you play in a draft league or an auction league, a mixed league or an “only” league, a large league or a small league, one that uses standard categories or not, one that uses keepers or not, etc., chances are pretty good that I’ve already experienced most of the challenges you’re likely to face as you put your team together.
With that said, hear are some of my observations on some of the more common and/or interesting scenarious I’ve encountered or observed so far:
Reality check - If you’re drafting online, use the host site’s projections as a reality check, not your primary source. Even in many industry leagues, people tend not to be as prepared as you would expect. Thus, they default to the host site’s projections, especially in the middle and latter stages of the draft. If you use a set of projections from another source, you can use the host site’s projections to get an idea of just how long you can wait on the players you feel are undervalued.
Respect your elders - Of course, given the choice (especially in a keeper league) most of us would opt for the potential of a Jason Heyward over the experience of a Johnny Damon to fill an outfield roster spot. Nothing wrong with that (unless you’re Johnny Damon’s mother, in which case I apologize profusely). However, many fantasy owners when faced with the choice between an experienced player and an unproven one reflexively go for the younger one hoping that he’ll turn into the next baseball superstar. That’s all well and good, but remember just how few superstars there really are in baseball. What are the chances the hotshot rookie you’re eyeing turns out to be the next one? Somewhere between slim and none (and slim is on his way into the clubhouse shower). I’ll take the reliability of a Derrek Lee over the promise of a Gaby Sanchez any day of the week.
Arms proliferation - People who play fantasy baseball spend a lot of time debating the relative fantasy value of hitters versus pitchers. Most people come down on the side of favoring hitters over pitchers, especially in the early rounds of a draft or with their big-money purchases in an auction league. My general sense is that this occurs because most fantasy players have a better intuitive feel for “counting stat categories” than “average-based categories”. Many leagues use just one average-based category for hitters and two average-based categories for hitters. Combine that with the fact that starting pitchers contribute nothing in categories such as Saves, and most people are left with just two pitching categories that they feel comfortable with (Wins and Strikeouts). And of course we all know how unpredictable pitcher win totals are, since they depend on the opposing pitcher, the offense, the bullpen, etc. From what I’ve observed over the years, the top pitchers in many fantasy scoring systems are just as valuable as the top hitters, but they often go later in drafts and for less money in auctions. Take advantage of this fact as you map out your strategy.
Greed is good - Fantasy experts (including the Sherpa) are always preaching the value of using player rankings that reflect your league’s actual system, particularly if you play in a points-based league. Yet many owners still don’t make the time to do this, opting instead to show up at their draft or auction with player rankings that are based on an entirely different scoring system. I recently observed a mock draft for a league using a very unusual scoring system - so unusual, in fact, that the top 27 starting pitchers all had higher projected point totals than the top hitter (Albert Pujols). Predictably though, Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, and Alex Rodriguez were still the top three players chosen. If your league uses an unusual scoring system that presents you with arbitrage opportunities, by all means take advantage of them.
Energy efficient - If you’re in a draft league, don’t waste time and energy fretting (or worse yet, complaining to your leaguemates) about how cruel the fantasy fates have been in assigning you an unfavorable draft position. Yes, the closer you are to the ends in a snake draft, the more likely it is that a potential position run between two of your picks will force you to draft someone you really want a round or two early. However, it’s possible to win a fantasy league from any draft position. Most people who play fantasy baseball know which players should go in the first few rounds. It’s in the middle and later rounds that your team’s potential for success is truly determined, not in the early rounds. Using a league-specific player ranking system will more than make up for any “disadvantage” caused by your draft position.
Half and half - Speaking of position runs between two of your selections when you’re at one of the ends of a draft and are facing a long wait before your next pick, a reasonable worst-case assumption is that half of the picks between yours will be at the position you’re targeting. Closers and catchers tend to be most susceptible to position runs, but that’s still no reason to pick Matt Capps or Jason Kendall before the latter stages of your draft.
Tracking devices - Whether your league uses a draft or an auction, tracking your leaguemates’ picks by position is a key to fantasy success. This monitoring is far more important than tracking the actual names of the players taken. If your draft or auction is online, let the host site’s software track the taken players’ names for you.
Budget consciousness - If you’re participating in an auction it’s crucial to go into it with a budget for hitters and for pitchers by roster slot. However, I’d strongly advise against making your budget based on a hitter’s position or a pitcher’s role (i.e. - starter, middle reliever, closer). It’s okay to deviate from your budget, but you must keep track of your cumulative deviation from your budget unless you want to finish your auction with money left on the table (almost always a bad sign) or by getting into a bidding war over the likes of Adam Everett and Carlos Silva.
Zero fear - How often have you played in an auction league and seen the winning bid end with a 9 because everyone else was afraid to raise the bid another dollar to a number ending in zero? Having a successful auction depends at least as much on mastering auction strategy and psychology (mind games, if you will) as it does on your knowledge of the players. There’s nothing magical or mystical about multiples of ten.
Maintain your flexibility - Seizing unanticipated opportunities as they arise is key to success in both drafts and auctions. Having a plan before you start is a good idea. Being willing to modify the original plan in the face of unexpected developments is an even better idea.
Hurt locker - Be sure to distinguish between players who are returning after missing time with injuries last season from players who are currently injured (e.g. - Jake Peavy vs. Brandon Webb).
Two dollar trump - Although many auction participants brag about their one dollar players who led their team to the league title, I’d strongly suggest budgeting at least $2 to every roster spot (including bench players, if they’re included in your auction). Doing so will put you at a huge advantage at the end when most of your competitors are down to $1 per player and the auction essentially becomes a draft. Nominate the players you want for a dollar (two dollars if someone else with an opening at the same position can go up to two dollars for a players), and have your cursor on the “Bid” button so that you can be the first person to raise other participants’ one dollar nominations to $2. Keeping $2 on hand per position even at the end of your auction will leave you with a much stronger bench than your opponents, and we all now how important a strong bench is to fantasy success (on the off chance one of our key players gets hurt, which almost never happens, does it?)
Just walk away, Renee - Have the discipline to stick to your predetermined player values during an auction. Decide on your walkaway price on each player as soon as he’s nominated, and stick to it, even if you’re tempted to go beyond it during the heat of the bidding. The walkaway price should be a function of (1) your predetermined fair value for the player, (2) how much you have left to spend (i.e. - your current cumulative budget surplus or deficit), and (3) how many players are left at the currently nominated player’s roster position(s). It may not seem like a big deal to exceed your walkaway price early in an auction, but exceed it by too much, or exceed it on multiple players, and all of a sudden you’ve put yourself in a bad position that will become increasingly difficult to recover from as the auction progresses (with adverse consequences for your roster).
Wrapping up early - A Sherpa rule of thumb: those who are among the first to finish filling their roster in an auction are generally the owners who are the happiest with their teams coming out of the auction. Usually, this is a consequence of having established clear fair values and walkaway prices for each player and sticking to them during the auction.
Maintaining balance - Another benefit of establishing players’ fair values before your auction begins is that doing so allows you to determine when an auction passes from one phase to another. Early in an auction your walkaway price will likely exceed the player’s fair value, which is fine, unless you’re happy with Kurt Suzuki or Jeff Frrancoeur being the cornerstone of your team’s offense. However, like a seesaw, players’ fair values and their auction prices will even out at some point during the auction. Eventually, you’ll enter the phase of the auction where players’ auction prices will generally fall below their fair values. Since the primary objective of an auction is to accumulate as much player value as possible subject to budgetary and roster requirement constraints, you’ll probably want to do most of your buying during the second and third phases.
Power grid/trail of tiers - Whether you’re doing a draft or an auction it’s helpful to put together a grid of all the players you’re potentially interested in organized by position and tiers. To save yourself time don’t rank more players than the number required by your league in total (including reserves). If people nominate a player “off the grid”, all the better for you.
Think outside the box(score) - If there’s a way to give yourself an advantage in your league by being creative (but staying within the rules, of course), by all means take it. Suppose you are playing in a draft league in which players have assigned dollar values. Also suppose this league has a salary cap that applies to your starters, but there’s no team salary cap. Finally, suppose this league has a rule that any player with a salary over a certain amount has to be in your starting lineup at least once every other week, or you lose him. How would you approach this situation? Most people would be tempted to watch player values throughout the draft to make sure they could stay within the salary cap - they’ll pass on better players and draft one who isn’t as good simply because the player they draft has a more cap-friendly salary. While your leaguemates are watching their dollars, you could load up on as many high-value p-layers as possible, split them into an A team and a B team (with roughly equal salaries) and play each team every other week. Of course, unless you have a huge bench, you’d have to make sure you balanced off the stars who play every other week with low cost, undervalued players who would be in your lineup every week. Using this unusual strategy in this particular case not only improves your team and provides a cushion against the inevitable injuries, but it also keeps those high-value players away from your opponents, which weakens their teams. Nothing illegal about doing this; besides, our country has a long history of rewarding innovative thinkers who have the couragae to take chances!
So there you have it, one observation for each league I’m playing in this year. Best of luck to everyone with their team(s) this season, and above all else, remember to enjoy the experience. Life is way too short as it is; try to have fun no matter what you’re doing.
By the way, I’ll be writing a weekly blog entry for USA Today’s Fantasy Windup - check it out when you get a chance! Starting this week I’ll also be contributing to a weekly “Makers and Breakers” column on Forbes.com’s SportsMoney blog (first entry should be up tomorrow)!
Hope your season is off to a great start!
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