Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an AL-only 5×5 format. The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 60 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 40 RBI would be given a score of 0.67 Sherpa Points). The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).
Here are the Top 10 performers through Week 14 for an AL-only 5×5 format. The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 24 HR, then a player with 8 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points). The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).
Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for a 5×5 Mixed League format. The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 110 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 55 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points). The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).
Here are the Top 10 performers through April for a Mixed League 5×5 format. The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 9 HR, then a player with 3 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points). The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).
Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an AL-only 5×5 format. The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 33 HR, then a player with a forecast of 22 HR would be given a score of 0.67 Sherpa Points). The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).
Here are the Top 10 performers through April for an AL-only 5×5 format. The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 9 HR, then a player with 3 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points). The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).
Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an NL-only 5×5 format. The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 110 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 55 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points). The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).
Here are the Top 10 performers through April for an NL-only 5×5 format. The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 9 HR, then a player with 3 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points). The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).
Saturday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars Mixed League auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan. This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers). Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers. Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster. The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.
I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Saturday’s auction.
Projections by Team - Hitting Categories
Owner
AB
AVG
HR
RBI
SB
R
Behrens
6,720
.280
244
1,042
126
1,063
Carroll
5,129
.286
180
785
70
776
Cushing
6,290
.281
214
895
165
971
Dennis
7,293
.280
277
1,104
150
1,118
Gonos
6,526
.276
259
1,027
97
1,069
Hoyos
6,983
.280
205
975
223
1,046
Karabell
7,492
.272
294
1,127
161
1,177
Kastner
7,324
.279
227
999
165
1,111
Liss
6,053
.279
231
887
123
917
Mack
7,009
.273
281
1,062
123
1,073
Patton
6,393
.278
244
924
206
1,024
Petera
6,668
.273
262
961
144
978
Pliml
6,908
.292
210
945
204
1,054
Roberts
6,691
.277
248
1,007
90
986
Salfino
6,905
.274
276
1,049
139
1,076
Schechter
7,404
.283
245
1,058
172
1,144
Van Hook
7,400
.284
256
1,067
171
1,059
Projections by Team - Pitching Categories
Owner
IP
W
SV
ERA
WHIP
K
Behrens
1,211
69
66
4.11
1.22
1,132
Carroll
1,376
86
41
3.94
1.22
1,207
Cushing
1,261
75
32
4.50
1.35
1,099
Dennis
934
56
20
5.12
1.27
820
Gonos
1,251
80
64
3.91
1.24
1,170
Hoyos
1,185
69
53
4.25
1.28
1,009
Karabell
1,333
75
58
4.40
1.28
1,158
Kastner
1,452
87
54
4.22
1.27
1,219
Liss
1,228
74
95
4.03
1.23
1,096
Mack
1,375
84
72
4.27
1.28
1,274
Patton
720
39
84
4.26
1.24
560
Petera
1,191
74
53
3.96
1.28
1,019
Pliml
1,032
57
27
4.27
1.28
891
Roberts
1,313
77
40
3.93
1.24
1,193
Salfino
1,270
75
43
4.22
1.35
1,034
Schechter
1,335
81
81
4.16
1.29
1,063
Van Hook
1,032
57
45
3.95
1.24
809
Projected Standings
Owner
H Pts
P Pts
Total Pts
Schechter
66
52
118
Van Hook
63
54.5
117.5
Behrens
46.5
52.5
99
Gonos
41
58
99
Karabell
62
34
96
Kastner
46.5
47
93.5
Dennis
65
28
93
Patton
40.5
52
92.5
Mack
49.5
39
88.5
Salfino
50
38
88
Hoyos
44
41
85
Liss
23.5
60.5
84
Petera
44
41
85
Roberts
32
49
81
Pliml
48
30.5
78.5
Carroll
20
56
76
Cushing
34.5
24
58.5
Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”. However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant. I’m sure if you asked them, many, if not all, of the 17 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team. Such is the nature of the beast.
Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:
At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so. This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction. Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup. I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.
Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings give a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction. Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!
Yesterday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars NL-only auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan. This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers). Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers. Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster. The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.
I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Sunday’s auction.
Projections by Team - Hitting Categories
Owner
AB
AVG
HR
RBI
SB
R
Cockroft
5,987
.284
193
843
180
946
Hertz
6,205
.275
209
893
101
885
Kreutzer
5,333
.276
156
729
156
792
Leibowitz
5,426
.281
207
768
139
828
Lombardo
4,082
.282
156
658
58
628
Melnick
5,313
.265
213
783
112
858
Pianowski
7,033
.272
263
1,062
73
1,002
Ravitz
6,003
.279
193
784
155
884
Schwartz
5,007
.285
190
731
83
762
Walton
5,787
.262
191
798
132
887
Wilderman
5,587
.276
178
767
156
838
Wilton
5,543
.268
180
745
107
733
Zola
5,252
.284
184
729
105
760
Projections by Team - Pitching Categories
Owner
IP
W
SV
ERA
WHIP
K
Cockroft
1,220
68
31
4.06
1.27
1,130
Hertz
1,028
57
54
4.71
1.38
742
Kreutzer
1,416
82
0
4.18
1.30
1,017
Leibowitz
1,079
63
37
4.33
1.27
880
Lombardo
1,111
65
42
4.33
1.27
970
Melnick
1,078
58
12
4.51
1.31
989
Pianowski
1,156
62
65
3.99
1.33
1,014
Ravitz
1,068
63
72
3.80
1.25
942
Schwartz
954
54
74
4.25
1.30
786
Walton
1,243
69
38
4.60
1.28
981
Wilderman
995
53
55
4.67
1.32
928
Wilton
1,150
65
53
4.37
1.34
982
Zola
987
56
37
4.00
1.23
852
Projected Standings
Owner
H Pts
P Pts
Total Pts
Ravitz
44.5
52.5
97
Cockroft
56.5
36
92.5
Pianowski
45
35
80
Leibowitz
41
39
80
Walton
37
35
72
Schwartz
30
41
71
Hertz
42
28
70
Zola
26.5
42.5
69
Wilderman
33.5
26
59.5
Kreutzer
27.5
32
59.5
Melnick
37
20
57
Lombardo
14.5
38.5
53
Wilton
20
29.5
49.5
Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”. However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant. I’m sure if you asked them, many, if not all, of the 13 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team. Such is the nature of the beast.
Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:
At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so. This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction. Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup. I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.
Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings gives a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction. Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!