The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Towards the end of the 1983 classic Return of the Jedi Emperor Palpatine tells Luke Skywalker “I can feel your anger” as he implores Luke to join the Dark Side of the Force.  Yes, by making a Star Wars reference I’m dating myself, but as a friend of mine used to say, somebody’s got to do it.

Much like the Emperor Palpatine, I can feel the anger directed towards Alex Rodriguez by baseball fans in the wake of his recent admission that he used steroids from 2001-2003 while a member of the Texas Rangers.  What impact did A-Rod’s steroid use have on his fantasy baseball value?  Surprisingly, the answer is “not much”.

On my website FantasyBaseballSherpa.com I’ve created a method of evaluating players’ fantasy baseball impact called the Sherpa Points system.  For counting stats such as home runs, RBI, etc., the league leader in the category is assigned a Sherpa Points score of 1.00.  A player with half the league leader’s total in that category would receive a 0.50 Sherpa Points, a player with a quarter of the league leader’s total in that category would receive 0.25 Sherpa Points, etc. 

For rate stats such as batting average a proxy statistic can be used.  To get a player’s Total Sherpa Points across all fantasy categories, you simply add up his Sherpa Points in each individual category.  If your fantasy league uses n hitting categories, then the maximum Total Sherpa Points would be n.  Thus, we have a straightforward method of evaluating a player’s overall fantasy impact.  The same method can be used to evaluate pitchers.

For the standard five hitting categories (AVG, HR, RBI, SB, R) here are Alex Rodriguez’ Total Sherpa Points scores by year since he became a full-time player in 1996 (max possible score is 5.00):

• 1996:  3.70
• 1997:  2.37
• 1998:  3.63
• 1999:  2.57
• 2000:  3.29
• 2001:  3.35
• 2002:  3.67
• 2003:  3.34
• 2004:  2.87
• 2005:  3.89
• 2006:  2.77
• 2007:  3.80
• 2008:  2.92

The preceding makes it clear that while Rodriguez may have been more consistent from 2001-2003 than over any other three-year period of his career, he definitely did not perform at a higher level relative to his peers during those years.  In fact, his best year during his “Steroid Period” (2002) stacks up as only the fourth-best fantasy season of his career, trailing 2005, 2007, and even 1996!

Perhaps you despise Rodriguez because you don’t like his personality, you think he doesn’t come through during the playoffs, you believe he’s still taking illegal substances, you hate the Yankees, or you get tired of reading about his off-the-field antics in the tabloids.  Whatever the reason, if you want to maximize your chances for fantasy baseball success in 2009, you need to set that all aside and take him this year if he’s available when it’s your turn to draft.

I project the following stats for Rodriguez for 2009:  .302 AVG, 44 HR, 133 RBI, 21 SB, 128 R, 3.65 Total Sherpa Points.  When you factor in Position Scarcity (the drop-off between the top-rated options and the mediocre options at each position), you could make an argument that Hanley Ramirez (3.44 projected Total Sherpa Points) should be the top overall pick.  However, given the relative uncertainty surrounding Ramirez (e.g. – will he be batting leadoff or third?  will his supporting cast be weaker this year than in the past?), I would argue strongly for Rodriguez as the first overall pick.

Let go of your anger – it will not serve you well.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

This is the sixth and final post in a series taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll finish the series by reviewing the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including CC Sabathia’s Indians’ stats only.

1. Roy Halladay (Preseason rank was 2) - TOR, SP

• Actual stats: 246 IP, 20 W, 0 SV, 2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 206 K, 3.77 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 208 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 134 K, 3.37 Sherpa Pts

2. Cliff Lee (140) - CLE, SP

• Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 22 W, 0 SV, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 170 K, 3.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 50 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 4.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 33 K, 0.34 Sherpa Pts

3. Ervin Santana (105) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 219 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 214 K, 2.89 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 140 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 5.21 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 108 K, 0.61 Sherpa Pts

4. Mike Mussina (90) - NYY, SP

• Actual stats: 200.1 IP, 20 W, 0 SV, 3.37 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 150 K, 2.47 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 146 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 4.87 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 105 K, 0.78 Sherpa Pts

5. James Shields (9) - TB, SP

• Actual stats: 215 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.56 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 160 K, 2.40 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 217 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 4.40 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 193 K, 2.65 Sherpa Pts

6. Mariano Rivera (12) - NYY, RP

• Actual stats: 70.2 IP, 6 W, 39 SV, 1.40 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 77 K, 2.37 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 74 IP, 3 W, 41 SV, 2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 70 K, 2.59 Sherpa Pts

7. Jon Lester (55) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 210.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 152 K, 2.28 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 155 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 4.70 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 137 K, 1.24 Sherpa Pts

8. Daisuke Matsuzaka (10) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 167.2 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 154 K, 2.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 209 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.26 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 207 K, 2.65 Sherpa Pts

9. A.J. Burnett (20) - TOR, SP

• Actual stats: 221.1 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 4.07 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 231 K, 2.14 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 164 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 3.90 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 161 K, 2.30 Sherpa Pts

10. John Danks (125) - CWS, SP

• Actual stats: 195 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.32 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 159 K, 2.13 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 154 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 5.38 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 135 K, 0.44 Sherpa Pts

As you can see, there were a number of surprises on this list - the biggest were Cliff Lee, Ervin Santana, Mike Mussina, and John Danks. Note that Francisco Rodriguez did not make the Top 10, even while setting the MLB record with 62 Saves - for the record, he was ranked 21st with 1.84 Sherpa Points, finishing behind Rivera, Joakim Soria, Jonathan Papelbon, and Joe Nathan among Closers. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only three of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other seven, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

39. CC Sabathia (1) - CLE, SP

• Actual stats: 122.1 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 3.83 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 123 K, 1.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 227 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 196 K, 3.78 Sherpa Pts

63. Erik Bedard (3) - SEA, SP

• Actual stats: 81 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 3.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 72 K, 0.79 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 187 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.61 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 195 K, 2.95 Sherpa Pts

30. Javier Vazquez (4) - CWS, SP

• Actual stats: 208.1 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 200 K, 1.50 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 210 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 4.33 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 198 K, 2.77 Sherpa Pts

27. John Lackey (5) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 163.1 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 130 K, 1.69 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 173 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 147 K, 2.74 Sherpa Pts

32. Jered Weaver (6) - LAA, SP

• Actual stats: 176.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.33 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 152 K, 1.44 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 182 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.91 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 161 K, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

48. Justin Verlander (7) - DET, SP

• Actual stats: 201 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 4.84 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 163 K, 1.00 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 206 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 4.33 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 199 K, 2.69 Sherpa Pts

17. Josh Beckett (8) - BOS, SP

• Actual stats: 174.1 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 4.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 172 K, 1.90 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 180 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.95 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 162 K, 2.68 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!); the 2009 projections should be available within the next 7-10 days.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

This is the fifth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including only Manny Ramirez’ Red Sox’ stats (he ranked 43rd overall based on 365 At-Bats) and Mark Teixeira’s Angels’ stats (he ranked 64th based on 193 At-Bats)

1. Dustin Pedroia (Preseason rank was 45) - BOS, 2B

• Actual stats: 653 AB, 17 HR, 83 RBI, 20 SB, .326 AVG, 118 R, 3.50 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 602 AB, 10 HR, 61 RBI, 6 SB, .296 AVG, 96 R, 1.97 Sherpa Pts

2. Josh Hamilton (60) - TEX, OF

• Actual stats: 624 AB, 32 HR, 130 RBI, 9 SB, .304 AVG, 98 R, 3.47 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 488 AB, 23 HR, 75 RBI, 10 SB, .266 AVG, 75 R, 1.81 Sherpa Pts

3. Alex Rodriguez (1) - NYY, 3B

• Actual stats: 510 AB, 35 HR, 103 RBI, 18 SB, .302 AVG, 104 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 587 AB, 45 HR, 135 RBI, 21 SB, .308 AVG, 129 R, 4.01 Sherpa Pts

4. Grady Sizemore (11) - CLE, OF

• Actual stats: 634 AB, 33 HR, 90 RBI, 38 SB, .268 AVG, 101 R, 3.20 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 629 AB, 25 HR, 77 RBI, 27 SB, .285 AVG, 121 R, 2.82 Sherpa Pts

5. Aubrey Huff (69) - BAL, 1B/3B

• Actual stats: 598 AB, 32 HR, 108 RBI, 4 SB, .304 AVG, 96 R, 3.15 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 580 AB, 21 HR, 82 RBI, 2 SB, .272 AVG, 72 R, 1.75 Sherpa Pts

6. Kevin Youkilis (39) - BOS, 1B

• Actual stats: 538 AB, 29 HR, 115 RBI, 3 SB, .312 AVG, 91 R, 3.12 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 560 AB, 20 HR, 79 RBI, 4 SB, .284 AVG, 96 R, 2.08 Sherpa Pts

7. Miguel Cabrera (3) - DET, 1B/3B

• Actual stats: 616 AB, 37 HR, 127 RBI, 1 SB, .292 AVG, 85 R, 3.11 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 622 AB, 35 HR, 123 RBI, 4 SB, .323 AVG, 106 R, 3.51 Sherpa Pts

8. Bobby Abreu (7) - NYY, OF

• Actual stats: 609 AB, 20 HR, 100 RBI, 22 SB, .296 AVG, 100 R, 3.04 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 602 AB, 18 HR, 106 RBI, 28 SB, .287 AVG, 116 R, 2.90 Sherpa Pts

9. Ichiro Suzuki (6) - SEA, OF

• Actual stats: 686 AB, 6 HR, 42 RBI, 43 SB, .310 AVG, 103 R, 2.98 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 665 AB, 9 HR, 59 RBI, 37 SB, .323 AVG, 106 R, 3.11 Sherpa Pts

10. Justin Morneau (25) - MIN, 1B

• Actual stats: 623 AB, 23 HR, 129 RBI, 0 SB, .300 AVG, 97 R, 2.96 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 599 AB, 32 HR, 115 RBI, 1 SB, .280 AVG, 88 R, 2.46 Sherpa Pts

There were a number of surprises on this list, including Pedroia, Huff, and Youkilis. I didn’t think Josh Hamilton could stay healthy long enough to accumulate the necessary At-Bats to be a top fantasy producer, but I was mistaken. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results. Using this indicator, I have little doubt Alex Rodriguez would have been at the top of the list had he not missed almost a month due to injury (only the second time in 13 seasons as a full-time big-leaguer that he’d missed a significant number of games).

You’ll also note that only four of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

65. David Ortiz (2) - BOS, 1B

• Actual stats: 416 AB, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 1 SB, .264 AVG, 74 R, 1.91 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 560 AB, 44 HR, 130 RBI, 2 SB, .313 AVG, 116 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts

71. Carl Crawford (4) - TB, OF

• Actual stats: 443 AB, 8 HR, 57 RBI, 25 SB, .273 AVG, 69 R, 1.80 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 635 AB, 15 HR, 84 RBI, 54 SB, .310 AVG, 99 R, 3.40 Sherpa Pts

16. Vladimir Guerrero (5) - LAA, OF

• Actual stats: 541 AB, 27 HR, 91 RBI, 5 SB, .303 AVG, 85 R, 2.75 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 589 AB, 30 HR, 120 RBI, 5 SB, .319 AVG, 93 R, 3.19 Sherpa Pts

28. Derek Jeter (8) - NYY, SS

• Actual stats: 596 AB, 11 HR, 69 RBI, 11 SB, .300 AVG, 88 R, 2.31 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 651 AB, 13 HR, 78 RBI, 20 SB, .315 AVG, 109 R, 2.89 Sherpa Pts

101. Howie Kendrick (9) - LAA, 2B

• Actual stats: 340 AB, 3 HR, 37 RBI, 11 SB, .306 AVG, 43 R, 1.28 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 601 AB, 15 HR, 92 RBI, 16 SB, .314 AVG, 103 R, 2.85 Sherpa Pts

37. Delmon Young (10) - MIN, OF

• Actual stats: 575 AB, 10 HR, 69 RBI, 14 SB, .290 AVG, 80 R, 2.10 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 670 AB, 21 HR, 93 RBI, 21 SB, .296 AVG, 102 R, 2.82 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll conclude this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Pitchers in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

This is the fourth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll review the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including CC Sabathia’s Brewers’ stats only.

1. Tim Lincecum (Preseason rank was 23) - SF, SP

• Actual stats: 227 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 265 K, 3.43 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 183 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.28 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 203 K, 1.73 Sherpa Pts

2. Johan Santana (1) - NYM, SP

• Actual stats: 234.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 206 K, 3.31 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 224 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 237 K, 4.00 Sherpa Pts

3. Cole Hamels (7) - PHI, SP

• Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 196 K, 3.01 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 187 IP, 12 IP, 0 SV, 3.75 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 188 K, 2.44 Sherpa Pts

4. Brandon Webb (3) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 226.2 IP, 22 W, 0 SV, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183 K, 2.80 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 231 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 182 K, 3.23 Sherpa Pts

5. Dan Haren (6) - ARI, SP

• Actual stats: 216 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 206 K, 2.76 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 215 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.64 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 176 K, 2.56 Sherpa Pts

6. Ryan Dempster (106) - ChC, SP

• Actual stats: 206.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 187 K, 2.64 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 80 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 70 K, 0.53 Sherpa Pts

7. Ricky Nolasco (N/A - didn’t even have him in my preseason database!) - FLA, SP

• Actual stats: 212.1 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 186 K, 2.60 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: N/A

8. CC Sabathia (1 in A.L.) - MIL, SP

• Actual stats: 130.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 1.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 128 K, 2.58 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 227 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 196 K, 3.78 Sherpa Pts

9. Derek Lowe (16) - LAD, SP

• Actual stats: 211 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.24 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 147 K, 2.46 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 207 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.87 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 138 K, 2.00 Sherpa Pts

10. Ben Sheets (28) - MIL, SP

• Actual stats: 198.1 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.09 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 158 K, 2.41 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 137 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 3.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 121 K, 1.58 Sherpa Pts

Ricky Nolasco was obviously a complete surprise to me, and Ryan Dempster wasn’t far behind. In theory Strikeouts and WHIP should be easier to predict than ERA, Wins, and Saves (since the latter group are more a function of randomness and factors beyond a Pitcher’s direct control), but those predictions aren’t always the most accurate in practice. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 4 of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

12. Jake Peavy (2) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 173.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 166 K, 2.17 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 216 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 230 K, 3.62 Sherpa Pts

11. Roy Oswalt (4) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 208.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 165 K, 2.33 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 224 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 166 K, 2.93 Sherpa Pts

99. John Smoltz (5) - ATL, SP

• Actual stats: 28 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 2.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 36 K, 0.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 185 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 166 K, 2.68 Sherpa Pts

98. Aaron Harang (8) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 184.1 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 4.78 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 153 K, 0.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 222 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 200 K, 2.44 Sherpa Pts

60. Chris Young (9) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 102.1 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 3.96 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 93 K, 0.85 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 185 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 166 K, 2.68 Sherpa Pts

132. Rafael Soriano (10) - ATL, RP

• Actual stats: 14 IP, 0 W, 3 SV, 2.57 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 16 K, 0.24 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 74 IP, 3 W, 34 SV, 2.80 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 76 K, 2.28 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

This is the third in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including only Manny Ramirez’ Dodgers’ stats (he ranked 59th overall based on just 59 At-Bats!) and Mark Teixeira’s Braves’ stats (he ranked 56th based on 381 At-Bats)

1. Albert Pujols (Preseason rank was 4) - STL, 1B

• Actual stats: 524 AB, 37 HR, 116 RBI, 7 SB, .357 AVG, 100 R, 3.46 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 528 AB, 37 HR, 110 RBI, 6 SB, .330 AVG, 105 R, 3.38 Sherpa Pts

2. David Wright (3) - NYM, 3B

• Actual stats: 626 AB, 33 HR, 124 RBI, 15 SB, .302 AVG, 115 R, 3.18 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 607 AB, 29 HR, 112 RBI, 26 SB, .316 AVG, 108 R, 3.46 Sherpa Pts

3. Hanley Ramirez (2) - FL, SS

• Actual stats: 589 AB, 33 HR, 67 RBI, 35 SB, .301 AVG, 125 R, 3.12 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 645 AB, 23 HR, 71 RBI, 52 SB, .310 AVG, 123 R, 3.48 Sherpa Pts

4. Lance Berkman (13) - HOU, 1B/OF

• Actual stats: 554 AB, 29 HR, 106 RBI, 18 SB, .312 AVG, 114 R, 3.06 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 562 AB, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 6 SB, .294 AVG, 96 R, 2.86 Sherpa Pts

5. Matt Holliday (1) - COL, OF

• Actual stats: 539 AB, 25 HR, 88 RBI, 28 SB, .321 AVG, 107 R, 3.03 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 636 AB, 33 HR, 125 RBI, 12 SB, .322 AVG, 114 R, 3.63 Sherpa Pts

6. Jose Reyes (8) - NYM, SS

• Actual stats: 688 AB, 16 HR, 68 RBI, 56 SB, .297 AVG, 113 R, 3.00 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 673 AB, 13 HR, 65 RBI, 70 SB, .285 AVG, 116 R, 3.05 Sherpa Pts

7. Carlos Beltran (18) - NYM, OF

• Actual stats: 606 AB, 27 HR, 112 RBI, 25 SB, .284 AVG, 116 R, 2.90 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 553 AB, 33 HR, 108 RBI, 21 SB, .273 AVG, 103 R, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

8. Chase Utley (5) - PHI, 2B

• Actual stats: 607 AB, 33 HR, 104 RBI, 14 SB, .292 AVG, 113 R, 2.87 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 595 AB, 27 HR, 109 RBI, 13 SB, .318 AVG, 115 R, 3.28 Sherpa Pts

9. Ryan Ludwick (81) - STL, OF

• Actual stats: 538 AB, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 4 SB, .299 AVG, 104 R, 2.83 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 399 AB, 21 HR, 65 RBI, 2 SB, .261 AVG, 69 R, 1.45 Sherpa Pts

10. Ryan Braun (14) - MIL, 3B/OF

• Actual stats: 611 AB, 37 HR, 106 RBI, 14 SB, .285 AVG, 92 R, 2.73 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 592 AB, 39 HR, 99 RBI, 19 SB, .280 AVG, 104 R, 2.86 Sherpa Pts

The most interesting observation from my perspective - the impact of batting order position (imagine what Hanley Ramirez could do if he batted 3rd or 4th) and the lower-than-expected SB totals for both Ramirez and Jose Reyes, which bring them back to the pack somewhat in the overall rankings. Injuries also impacted the actual rankings (e.g. - Matt Holliday and Chase Utley), as did the lack of anticipated injuries (e.g. - Albert Pujols). Ryan Ludwick is the only name on the list I’d term a complete surprise. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 6 of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other four, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

11. Ryan Howard (6) - PHI, 1B

• Actual stats: 610 AB, 48 HR, 146 RBI, 1 SB, .251 AVG, 105 R, 2.71 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 560 AB, 44 HR, 130 RBI, 2 SB, .313 AVG, 116 R, 3.44 Sherpa Pts

29. Jimmy Rollins (7) - PHI, SS

• Actual stats: 556 AB, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 47 SB, .277 AVG, 76 R, 2.10 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 684 AB, 24 HR, 81 RBI, 39 SB, .289 AVG, 128 R, 3.12 Sherpa Pts

25. Alfonso Soriano (9) - ChC, OF

• Actual stats: 453 AB, 29 HR, 75 RBI, 19 SB, .280 AVG, 76 R, 2.17 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 645 AB, 39 HR, 85 RBI, 26 SB, .285 AVG, 110 R, 3.02 Sherpa Pts

21. Derrek Lee (10) - ChC, 1B

• Actual stats: 623 AB, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 8 SB, .291 AVG, 93 R, 2.26 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 575 AB, 28 HR, 92 RBI, 14 SB, .311 AVG, 100 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Pitchers in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Great news! Just wanted to let everyone in Sherpaville know that our Fantasy Baseball Sherpa blog has been chosen as a finalist for the Fantasy Sports Trade Association’s (FSTA) Best Blog award! This award recognizes the website with the best combination of information and presentation in a blog. The winner will be announced next month at the FSTA’s meeting in St. Petersburg, FL.

We are doubly honored because our sister site’s Fantasy Football Sherpa blog has also been chosen as a finalist in the same category! (note: fortunately, unlike the Oscars, the FSTA has no rule against multiple nominations in the same category!)

Enjoy the rest of the holiday season, and best wishes for health and happiness in the new year!

The Sherpa

This entry is the second in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll continue with the top 10 Pitchers using a 5×5 mixed league format.

1. Roy Halladay (Preseason rank was 6) - TOR, SP
   • Actual stats: 246 IP, 20 W, 0 SV, 2.78 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 206 K, 3.59 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
   • Projected stats: 208 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.42 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 134 K, 2.78 Sherpa Pts
2. CC Sabathia (4) - CLE/MIL, SP
   • Actual stats: 253 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 251 K, 3.46 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 227 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 196 K, 3.14 Sherpa Pts
3. Cliff Lee (298) - CLE, SP
   • Actual stats: 223.1 IP, 22 W, 0 SV, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 170 K, 3.33 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 50 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 4.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 33 K, 0.26 Sherpa Pts
4. Tim Lincecum (50) -SF, SP
   • Actual stats: 227 IP, 18 W, 0 SV, 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 265 K, 3.32 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 183 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 4.28 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 203 K, 1.85 Sherpa Pts
5. Johan Santana (1) - NYM, SP
   • Actual stats: 234.1 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 206 K, 3.18 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 224 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 237 K, 4.00 Sherpa Pts
6. Cole Hamels (21) - PHI, SP
   • Actual stats: 227.1 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 196 K, 2.88 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 187 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 3.75 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 188 K, 2.50 Sherpa Pts
7. Brandon Webb (3) - ARI, SP
   • Actual stats: 226.2 IP, 22 W, 0 SV, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183 K, 2.74 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 231 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 182 K, 3.23 Sherpa Pts
8. Dan Haren (8) - ARI, SP
   • Actual stats: 216 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 206 K, 2.68 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 215 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.64 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 176 K, 2.62 Sherpa Pts
9. Ervin Santana (249) - LAA, SP
   • Actual stats: 219 IP, 16 W, 0 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 214 K, 2.67 Sherpa Pts
   • Projected stats: 140 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 5.21 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 108 K, 0.42 Sherpa Pts
10. Ryan Dempster (198) - ChC, SP
    • Actual stats: 206.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 2.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 187 K, 2.56 Sherpa Pts
    • Projected stats: 80 IP, 6 W, 0 SV, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 70 K, 0.59 Sherpa Pts

The most interesting observation from my perspective - the relative difficulty in projecting W, ERA and WHIP vs. projecting Ks, and the number of Pitchers who seemingly came out of nowhere (i.e. - Lee, Ervin Santana, and Dempster). Injuries obviously impact the actual rankings (see John Smoltz and J.J. Putz below), but so do incorrect initial estimates regarding Innings Pitched. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the IP gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only 5 of the Pitchers listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other five, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

21. Jake Peavy (2) - SD, SP

• Actual stats: 173.2 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 166 K, 2.11 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 216 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.17 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 230 K, 3.62 Sherpa Pts

16. Roy Oswalt (5) - HOU, SP

• Actual stats: 208.2 IP, 17 W, 0 SV, 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 165 K, 2.27 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 224 IP, 14 W, 0 SV, 3.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 166 K, 2.93 Sherpa Pts

188. John Smoltz (7) - ATL, SP

• Actual stats: 28 IP, 3 W, 0 SV, 2.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 36 K, 0.47 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 185 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 166 K, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

150. J.J. Putz (9) - SEA, RP

• Actual stats: 46.1 IP, 6 W, 15 SV, 3.89 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 56 K, 0.63 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 71 IP, 3 W, 33 SV, 2.41 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 79 K, 2.32 Sherpa Pts

14. Mariano Rivera (10) - NYY, RP

• Actual stats: 70.2 IP, 6 W, 39 SV, 1.40 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 77 K, 2.33 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 74 IP, 3 W, 41 SV, 2.68 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 70 K, 2.31 Sherpa Pts

We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Hitters in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to let you know that I’ll be participating in a fantasy baseball mock draft tonight at Mock Draft Central. The draft starts at 8pm Eastern Time and features 12 industry experts. The format is a 5×5 mixed league (Hitting Categories: AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB; Pitching Categories: W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP). If you want to listen to some great, colorful commentary as the draft unfolds, tune in to Paul Greco and Lenny Melnick, who will be describing the draft on Blog Talk Radio. I have the 4th pick in the first round.

Hope you’re able to tune in/watch!

The Sherpa

Hi everyone!

Just wanted to let you know that the Sherpa will be a guest on today’s Good Day Street Talk show, seen on FOX Channel 5 in NYC from 6-6:30am. I’m not sure when within that period the interview will run. The topic - starting a small business during challenging economic times.

Hope you’re able to watch/record it!

The Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Just wanted to let you know that Fantasy Baseball Sherpa received some great coverage today in an article by written by Virginia Backaitis that appears in the @work section of the New York Post! The article features interviews with several entrepreneurs who’ve survived corporate layoffs and gone on to launch their own companies.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa