With the season reaching the halfway point I figured it would be fun to take a look back to see who have been the most valuable fantasy baseball performers so far. Justin Verlander and Matt Kemp have been two players grabbing a lot of headlines this season with their play, so it should come as little to no surprise that they rank first and second in the standard 5×5 mixed league format through yesterday’s games. Here are the lists of the top ten hitters and pitchers through the games of Saturday, July 2nd (Total Sherpa Points based on a max of 5.00, which would be a player’s score if he led the league in all five hitting or pitching categories):
Top 10 Hitters
Matt Kemp (3.81) - 293 AB, .331 AVG, 22 HR, 63 RBI, 22 SB, 52 R
Adrian Gonzalez (3.42) - 327 AB, .352 AVG, 16 HR, 71 RBI, 1 SB, 56 R
Ryan Braun (3.42) - 299 AB, .321 AVG, 16 HR, 60 RBI, 19 SB, 57 R
Jose Reyes (3.38) - 344 AB, .352 AVG, 3 HR, 32 RBI, 30 SB, 65 R
Jose Bautista (3.24) - 261 AB, .326 AVG, 24 HR, 52 RBI, 5 SB, 61 R
Granderson, Konerko, and (to a lesser extent) Ellsbury are the biggest surprises on this list - before the season you would have expected to see some combination of Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Troy Tulowitzki, and David Wright taking up three of the spots in a season-to-date top ten list. It will be interesting to see how much Jose Reyes’ latest injury affects both his fantasy value and his real-life trade value.
CC Sabathia (2.67) - 129.2 IP, 11 W, 0 SV, 3.05 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 106 K
Dan Haren (2.65) - 116.2 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 2.85 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 98 K
David Price (2.52) - 118.0 IP, 8 W, 0 SV, 3.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 116 K
Can’t say that any of the names on the pitchers’ list are a surprise except for James Shields. Most people thought he would bounce back from a 2010 season that wasn’t as bad as his fantasy stats would indicate, but I don’t think anyone (or at least not anyone I know) predicted he would be a top ten pitcher at this point, much less a top five pitcher. And fear not, Phillie fans - even without Roy Oswalt, your team still has plenty of pitching left to run away with the NL East and beat any team in either league in a playoff series.
Hope you’re enjoying your 4th of July holiday weekend!
With just a few days left in the 2010 baseball season it’s natural for fantasy team owners to start thinking already about 2011.
Need to know which under-the-radar players to keep an eye on and which overvalued players to stay away from as we look forward to next season? Be sure to check out Zack O’Malley Greenburg’s season-ending entry on the SportsMoney blog on Forbes.com. I’ve been one of several contributors to Zack’s blog throughout the season, along with Scott Pianowski (Yahoo), Paul Bourdette (AOL Fanhouse), and Ron Shandler (Baseball HQ).
This is the Week 26 installment of our weekly in-season “Makers & Breakers” recommendations. Each week throughout the baseball season each contributor has identified one undervalued player who was likely to be available in most leagues (i.e. - the Maker), and one overvalued player who was likely owned in most leagues but capable of doing serious damage to teams that include him (i.e. - the Breaker). Unfortunately, this is the end of the road for Zack’s entries, as he’ll be taking on a new assignment within Forbes.com, but I’ve greatly appreciated the opportunity to contribute!
Here are the Top 10 performers through Week 10 for an AL-only 5×5 format. The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 21 HR, then a player with 7 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points). The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).
Here are the Top 10 performers through Week 10 for an NL-only 5×5 format. The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 21 HR, then a player with 7 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points). The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).
So, it’s Sunday night or Monday morning, and your league’s weekly lineup submissions are due. You’re trying to decide among three starting pitchers (whether on your current roster or not) to fill your last pitching slot. How should you go about it?
You could “go with your gut” and hope for the best (good luck with that). You could look up each pitcher’s historical record (assuming he has one) against his upcoming opponent(s) and use that as a guide, ignoring the fact that a team’s roster is likely to experience significant turnover from season to season that will render historical results obsolete. You could rely on the Remainder-of-Season Forecasts in the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s In-season Updates (shameless self-promotion).
While the third option is definitely better than the first two, it still leaves out one crucial component if you’re trying to make a short-term decision on which pitcher to start: the quality of the pitcher’s opponent. How can this be quantified? The same way you would quantify the pitcher’s results - look at the historical data.
To assess a starting pitcher’s upcoming matchup(s) we want to use opponents’ success (or lack thereof) against a specific team. For example, if I play in a league that uses the standard 5 pitching categories (Wins, Saves, Ks, ERA, WHIP), I’ll want to look at MLB Opponent Pitching Stats in each category that involves starting pitchers, so that eliminates Saves from my list.
I want to set my scoring system up so that the least desirable opponents have the highest scores, and the most desirable opponents have the lowest scores. The least desirable opponent would have the highest number of Wins (equivalently, the lowest number of losses), the biggest difference between AB and Strikeouts (or, if you prefer, the lowest Strikeout per AB rate), the highest number of Runs Scored (using this as a proxy for ERA), and the highest number of Walks + Hits (using this as a proxy for WHIP). Conversely, the most desirable opponent would have the lowest number of Wins (equivalently, the highest number of losses), the highest Strikeout per AB rate, the lowest number of Runs Scored, and the lowest number of Walks + Hits.
We can set up a scoring system for which the “best” team in each category receives a score of 1.00, and all other teams receive a score between 0 and 1 depending on the ratio of their result to the result of the best team in each category. Thus, the maximum score is the number of pitching categories under consideration (4 in my example). Add up a team’s results in each category to get its overall score; again, the lower the overall score, the more desirable the opponent.
Based on games through 6/13/09, here’s how the 30 MLB teams rank using the 4 categories in my example (with their accompanying score):
Was 2.92 (max score is 4.00)
KC 3.02
SD 3.03
ChC 3.05
Oak 3.11
Sea 3.11
SF 3.12
Hou 3.16
CWS 3.16
Ari 3.18
Bal 3.20
Cin 3.20
Pit 3.21
Atl 3.22
Mil 3.31
LAA 3.34
Col 3.35
StL 3.36
Fla 3.39
Tex 3.40
Det 3.41
NYM 3.43
Cle 3.45
Min 3.52
Phi 3.55
Tor 3.69
NYY 3.71
TB 3.71
Bos 3.73
LAD 3.80
No surprise to see teams like the Nationals, Royals, Padres, A’s, Mariners, and Giants at the top of the list of most desirable opponents, but the presence of the Cubs among the “worst” offensive teams is a bit of a surprise to me. If you’d asked me before the season started, I would have told you that the Cubs should have one of the best offenses in baseball. Of course, Aramis Ramirez’ injury combined with slow starts by Geovany Soto, Derrek Lee, and (to a lesser extent) Alfonso Soriano have all contributed to the Cubs’ abysmal ranking. However, it points out the need to take a quick glance at a team’s current overall health compared to its health season-to-date. The NY Mets might be ranked as one of the least desirable opponents according to this chart, but sans Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes, they’re obviously a less formidable foe now than they would be if this pair were healthy.
Nevertheless, the approach I’ve outlined above can take some of the guesswork out of selecting starting pitchers for your weekly lineups. Of course, use your common sense - given the choice, I’d much rather start Johan Santana against the Dodgers (yes, in spite of his awful start today against the Yankees!) than Livan Hernandez or Tim Redding against the Nationals. However, if you’re deciding among several pitchers of similar quality, this analysis can be extremely useful.
This past Saturday I covered the 2009 Tout Wars AL-only auction, which took place in midtown Manhattan. This is a 5×5 league which uses the usual scoring categories (AVG, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers). Rosters consist of 14 Hitters (2 Catchers, 1 1B, 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 3B, 5 OF, 1 1B/3B, 1 2B/SS, 1 Util) and 9 Pitchers. Each team had $260 to spend during the auction on their 23-man roster. The auction was followed by a 4-round reserve draft.
I used the projections from my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website to predict the standings based on the results of Saturday’s auction.
Projections by Team - Hitting Categories
Owner
AB
AVG
HR
RBI
SB
R
Berry
5,428
.277
205
782
102
754
Collette
5,913
.269
203
816
150
845
Erickson
5,388
.284
170
772
135
833
Grey
6,608
.276
218
946
177
1,014
Michaels
5,657
.277
173
789
126
859
Moyer
6,354
.283
226
972
111
975
Peterson
6,158
.276
228
897
94
943
Shandler
5,786
.281
188
806
129
890
Sheehan
5,485
.277
161
686
153
857
Siano
5,400
.281
170
781
87
851
Walker
6,397
.265
232
907
94
933
Wolf/Colton
5,261
.284
168
749
112
765
Projections by Team - Pitching Categories
Owner
IP
W
SV
ERA
WHIP
K
Berry
977
58
41
3.96
1.21
935
Collette
1,142
69
40
4.67
1.21
932
Erickson
1,026
63
51
4.64
1.34
853
Grey
823
48
54
3.82
1.30
654
Michaels
1,249
78
38
4.00
1.29
982
Moyer
1,211
77
33
4.42
1.27
949
Peterson
1,040
61
58
4.52
1.29
894
Shandler
956
56
19
4.81
1.33
826
Sheehan
915
56
31
4.45
1.25
806
Siano
1,034
63
46
4.20
1.29
843
Walker
1,013
63
44
4.15
1.33
907
Wolf/Colton
1,028
61
51
3.70
1.29
926
Projected Standings
Owner
H Pts
P Pts
Total Pts
Grey
47
39
86
Moyer
48
31
79
Peterson
36.5
33.5
70
Walker
34.5
32
66.5
Collette
31
33
64
Michaels
30
33
63
Siano
21.5
40
61.5
Wolf/Colton
22
38
60
Sheehan
29
30.5
59.5
Erickson
29.5
29.5
59
Berry
24
34
58
Shandler
37
16.5
53.5
Keep in mind, this is just one man’s opinion, not an “answer key”. However, I thought this would be of interest since I am an observer rather than a participant. I’m sure if you asked them, many, if not all, of the 12 participants would feel that they came out of the auction with the best team. Such is the nature of the beast.
Several other reasons why the actual results are likely to differ from the projected standings above:
At the risk of stating the obvious, players’ actual results may differ from their projected results, sometimes significantly so. This can be due to a myriad of reasons including injuries, suspensions, role changes (e.g. - bench player becomes a starter, or vice versa), changes in batting order position, trades, Closer changes, etc.
I did not make any adjustments to the 23-man rosters purchased during the auction. Of course, when the league is played out, if a player is injured, suspended, benched, sent to the minors, etc., the owner will replace them in their starting lineup. I chose not to do this because I didn’t want to make judgments re: replacement players that would potentially affect the projected standings.
Some owners will prove to be more adept (or luckier) than others at making in-season trades, free agent purchases, etc.
Even with the above caveats I’m still confident that the projected standings gives a reasonably accurate picture of the teams’ relative strength coming out of the auction. Let’s see what happens as the season unwinds!
Just wanted everyone in Sherpaville to know that I’ll be participating in the 24 hour Radio-a-thon on Blog Talk Radio to raise money for the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation. This event is being put together by Baseball Digest and FantasyPros911 I’ll be on the air Sunday morning from 10-10:20am (remember that Daylight Savings Time starts Sunday morningdifference!) w/ co-host Paul Greco, talking about fantasy baseball and the upcoming season.
Here’s the link to the show - hope you’re able to tune in, and please consider making a contribution to the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation!
This is the third in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including only Manny Ramirez’ Dodgers’ stats (he ranked 59th overall based on just 59 At-Bats!) and Mark Teixeira’s Braves’ stats (he ranked 56th based on 381 At-Bats)
1. Albert Pujols (Preseason rank was 4) - STL, 1B
Actual stats: 524 AB, 37 HR, 116 RBI, 7 SB, .357 AVG, 100 R, 3.46 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
The most interesting observation from my perspective - the impact of batting order position (imagine what Hanley Ramirez could do if he batted 3rd or 4th) and the lower-than-expected SB totals for both Ramirez and Jose Reyes, which bring them back to the pack somewhat in the overall rankings. Injuries also impacted the actual rankings (e.g. - Matt Holliday and Chase Utley), as did the lack of anticipated injuries (e.g. - Albert Pujols). Ryan Ludwick is the only name on the list I’d term a complete surprise. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.
You’ll also note that only 6 of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other four, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!
We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Pitchers in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.
Just wanted to let all of you out there in Sherpaville know that I’ll be appearing on Craig Peterson’s Tech Talk show this afternoon discussing how small businesses maintain their productivity during the summer months. Tech Talk airs in the Boston area on WGIR (610 AM), WGIN (930 AM), and WGIP (1540 AM) from 12-3pm. Craig’s show will be rebroadcast on WLMW (90.7 FM) during the week of July 7th. The show will also be available as a podcast from Apple I-tunes the middle of July.