• After two years of relative pitching dominance, the price of premium pitchers is dropping, especially in mixed league auctions.  Not a surprising result - when the supply of pitchers capable of helping your team in a meaningful way is increasing, but the demand is constant, then prices should drop, and that’s exactly what happened.  Clayton Kershaw was the only pitcher who went for $30, while Justin Verlander went for $27, and Roy Halladay went for $26.

• Surprisingly, the cost of elite hitters isn’t increasing.  When the supply of hitters capable of helping your team in a meaningful way is decreasing, but the demand is constant, then prices should increase.  However, Albert Pujols was the most expensive hitter, costing $43 - I believe last year he went for just under $50.  There were only 6-8 players who cracked the $40 mark.  So, if people were spending less than last year on both top hitters and top pitchers, where were they spending their money instead?

• Owners spent more of their hitting dollars on potential breakout players.  If you purchased Lucas Duda, Cameron Maybin, Brett Lawrie, Elvis Andrus, Eric Hosmer, or Jason Kipnis during an auction this spring, you probably spent more on them than you anticipated.  However, there were some exceptions to this observation, including Mat Gamel, Jose Altuve, and Chris Davis.  I guess I was just more bullish on the prospects of the players in the latter group than most of my peers.

• Owners were still willing to spend big on top closers.  If no money manager will ever be fired for buying IBM, the fantasy baseball auction strategy corollary is that no fantasy baseball team owner will be mocked for purchasing Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon.

• Owners were also willing to spend more money on potential closers.  Many fantasy owners take it as gospel that “Thou shalt not overspend on closers”.  Those who purchased Andrew Bailey, Brian Wilson, Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Matt Thornton, Kyle Farnsworth, and Drew Storen in auctions would wholeheartedly agree.  However, that certainly didn’t stop owners from speculating, perhaps even more than was prudent, on closers-in-waiting such as Vinnie Pestano and Addison Reed.

• Even in an expert league such as Tout Wars owners are naturally risk-averse, perhaps even exceedingly so.  Some players went for less than I thought they would because of injury concerns (e.g. - Kendry Morales, Johan Santana, Alex Rodriguez, and Kevin Youkilis).  Some went for less due to the fact they’re still unproven (e.g. - Mat Gamel).  Some went for less because they’re “old” (e.g. - Paul Konerko).  Some went for less due simply to the fact that they were horrible last season (e.g. - Adam Dunn).  I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if, barring injury, every player mentioned in this bullet ends up producing fantasy value far in excess of what their owner paid to acquire them for the 2012 season.

• Jump-bidding is a bad use of limited resources.  Some owners believe that by increasing the current high bid by more than a dollar or two (affectionately known among fantasy owners as “jump bidding”), they’ll send fellow owners a clear message to “back off”.  The only message this tactic sends is that you weren’t paying enough attention in your college economics class.  You may have deterred other owners from trumping your bid on Clayton Kershaw early in the auction, but when you end up filling your pitching staff with the likes of Jamie Moyer at the end of an auction, you’re team is in trouble before the season even begins.

• Having a planned strategy and a predetermined budget heading into an auction is a good idea, but being flexible and able to adapt your plan on the fly is even better.  Saying you’re not going to spend more than $20 on a starting pitcher is understandable, but if you stick to that position even when Roy Halladay is on the block, and the current high bid of $25 is $10 less than what you think the player is worth, unless they’re hiding an injury from the training staff, it’s worth making the adjustments to your roster in order to fit him in under your salary cap.

• Buy stats, not players.  Set targets by category before the auction starts, and monitor them like a hawk during the auction.  Many owners spend massive amounts of their brainpower during an auction tracking how much money each of their opponents has remaining, who has what roster needs remaining, and how will to keep in touch with them even after the auction.  I believe it’s far more important to track teams’ cumulative hitting points or starting points.  Let someone else obsess over which of the 300+ players that have already been purchased in the auction; you’ve got bigger fish to fry.

All of that aside, I prefer to think of an auction such as Tout Wars as an over-sized math problem rather than a referendum on my “player evaluation skills” - I’ll leave that to the professionals (scouts, that is).  How do you get the most points in your league, subject to the constraints of a salary cap, roster requirements by position, and overall roster size?  Who is going to make the shrewdest waiver wire pick-ups in the first month or two of the season?  Which owners are going to agree to the right trades at just the right time?

Until next time!

The Sherpa

Scott
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Here’s my fantasy baseball video preview of the 2012 Cincinnati Reds’ pitchers - which two Reds’ pitchers should you avoid having on your fantasy team at all costs, and which Reds’ starting pitcher is currently flying under the radar?

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website

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Here’s my fantasy baseball video preview of the 2012 Cincinnati Reds’ hitters - I’m forecasting a division title for the Red Legs!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website

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Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

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Here’s my fantasy baseball video preview of the 2012 Chicago Cubs’ pitchers - please let me know what you think!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Here’s my fantasy baseball video preview of the 2012 Chicago Cubs’ hitters - please let me know what you think!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Here’s my fantasy baseball video preview of the 2012 Atlanta Braves’ pitchers - please let me know what you think!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Here’s my fantasy baseball video preview of the 2012 Atlanta Braves’ hitters - please let me know what you think!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa website

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

Twitter:  @fantasy_sherpa

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Here’s my fantasy baseball video preview of the 2012 Arizona Diamondbacks’ pitching staff - please let me know what you think!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

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Since I’m a social media strategist by day and encourage everyone to make video part of their marketing effort, I’ve decided to take my own advice and finally enter the (late) 20th century.

First up - a fantasy baseball preview of the Arizona Diamondbacks’ hitters.  We’ll see how this experiment goes - if it’s well-received (or I just feel the need to stroke my ego five dozen times), we’ll continue with a fantasy baseball preview of each team’s hitters and (separately) pitchers.  I was hoping to keep the team hitter previews in the 2-3 minute range, but this first one is “a bit” longer than that.  I’ll see what I can do in the future to shorten that time (e.g. - talk faster, write out a script, review the Houston Astros, etc.)

In the meantime, enjoy this first one, and let me know what you think!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

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Today we have the sixth installment from guest blogger Jason Trask for a mock (slow) draft he’s participating in with some fellow fantasy enthusiasts from Fantasy Baseball Cafe.  Here are Jason’s thoughts on rounds 16-18 of his draft (we’ll cover subsequent rounds in future posts).

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2012 Mock Draft #1:  Rounds 16-18

Round 16

Best Pick

• Bud Norris 16.14 Yes, the best pick was the last pick. Norris has potential to bring elite level K’s, but of course for the Astros. The NL Central is significantly weaker (and will be even weaker if Prince signs elsewhere). 10 wins is a possibility and with 175+ K’s and an ERA under 4. This could be a steal of a pick.

Worst Pick

• Mike Adams 16.07 The third RP taken at this draft position and he’s not a closer. Granted after drafting Marmol and Chapman, I might be looking for another fallback myself but not this early.

My Pick

• Ryan Dempster 16.02 Almost made “worst” pick status for the round as soon as I made it. I decided to partner him with Buchholz and hope for a combination of 30 wins, 350 K’s with a combined ERA around 4.00. The key word in the last sentence of course is hope.

Notable Picks

• Zack Cozart 16.01, Ryan Roberts 16.04, Matt Joyce 16.06, Justin Morneau 16.12

Round 17

Best Pick

• Gaby Sanchez 17.08 Gaby ran out of gas last year and will have plenty of table setting opportunities with Reyes now in the lineup. The new Miami stadium is being predicted to be a better hitters’ park so all signs are pointing upward. Won’t be confused with the elite first basemen, but possibly could sneak onto an All Star team.

Worst Pick

• Chris Heisey 17.11 After the Ryan Ludwick signing, and Bruce/Stubbs already locking into the lineup, I don’t see Heisey making much of an impact. There are still a lot of guys with full time jobs on the board, and I don’t see Heisey wedging himself into that OF regularly.

My Pick

• Francisco Cordero 17.13 Another nominee for “worst” pick status as shortly after this pick, Cordero was grabbed by TOR to set up Sergio Santos. John Farrell played hot potato with the closer role last year, so Cordero could see some sporadic chances to close. That being said, Santos would have to falter pretty hard to lose his job.

Notable Picks

• Jason Kubel 17.01, Grady Sizemore 17.03, Chad Billingsley 17.04, Chris Sale 17.05

Round 18

Just a note before I get to the recap. At this point in the draft, Victor Martinez was still healthy. Prince Fielders’ destination was unknown, and we still don’t know who’s going to the Super Bowl. The previous round recaps reflected early thoughts and attitudes, for now I’m only going to highlight my own picks with a few sprinkles of each round included.

My Pick

• John Mayberry 18.02 Remember Jayson Werth before he signed with the Nationals? Yeah, I think Mayberry is capable, but with even more athleticism (translation: steals). He’s got the pedigree, and that’s hard to ignore. For some reason, he’s in competition with Laynce Nix, Domonic Brown, and Ty Wigginton (really?) for OF playing time. Mayberry’s got the upside here.

Round Notes

• John Danks/Gavin Floyd go back to back in this round. White Sox fans better hope they can make a jump because it’s going to hard to replace Buehrle’s innings.
• Brennan Boesch getting picked here seems like a great move. At the time, Prince Fielder wasn’t a Tiger. Now? How would you feel about hitting in front of Miggy/Prince this year?
• Alex Presley being taken at the end of the round caused some grumbles. He’s got the “sneaky sleeper” thing going for him. I expect his stock to rise, but he’s on the Pirates so don’t expect too much attention.

 If you’re interested in seeing the entire draft, check out the Google doc

Follow Jason on Twitter: @JTrask25

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More to come as Jason’s mock draft progresses,

The Sherpa

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