The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Last night I participated in Mock Draft Central’s third 2008 experts’ mock draft. I’ll share some thoughts on the draft in a separate post, but I wanted to first share with you my line of thinking as I prepare for a fantasy baseball draft. This was a 12-team mixed league draft with each team picking 14 Hitters and 9 Pitchers. The draft used the standard 5 Hitting categories (Home Runs, Runs Batted In, Stolen Bases, Runs Scored, Batting Average) and 5 Pitching categories (Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, Earned Run Average (ERA), and Walks + Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP) ).

Prior to the draft each of the 12 experts was asked a series of 8 questions by Paul Greco, who did a live play-by-play of our draft on Blog Talk Radio (http://www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasybaseballguy/2008/02/26/Mock-Draft-Centrals-Expert-Draft) - note: even though the program is listed as being 4 hours in length, there was approximately 30 minutes of “pregame” and a few minutes of post-draft analysis - the draft itself took about 2 hours and 15 minutes.

Here are the questions Paul asked, followed by my responses (I had the 5th pick):

1. What is your Overall Draft strategy for this draft?

Come out of the draft with a team that should finish in the Top 4 (i.e. - top third) in all statistical categories, with the possible exception of Stolen Bases and Saves. These two categories have very little correlation with the other categories, so if I think I’ll finish in the Top 6 (i.e. - top half) in those categories, I’ll be happy. If I can do that, I should have a competitive team heading into the season!

2. What particular player are you looking to key on?

Since I have the 5th pick in the first round, I’ll have a list of my top 5 players, knowing that I’ll get one of them. I try not to key on particular players in subsequent rounds. As soon as I make my pick in a given round, I’ll start preparing a list of players I’m considering for my pick in the following round. The key factors that I consider are (1) my pre-draft rankings, (2) remaining position needs for the other teams in the draft (I keep a chart that I update throughout the draft), (3) projected points for each team based on projected results in each category (I use a spreadsheet to keep track of this during the draft), and (4) the Average Draft Position (ADP) for each player (I load this info into my player projections spreadsheet prior to the draft). Ideally, I’ll use the ADP for the site hosting the draft I’m participating in - if that’s not available, I’ll use Mock Draft Central’s ADP report since it’s based on hundreds of observations.

3. Are you planning on Drafting for scarcity or category?

I tend to focus more on Position Scarcity rather than Category Scarcity, especially earlier in a draft. Category Scarcity is relatively easy to quantify, and it can be tracked during the draft (see my response to your previous question). Many veteran fantasy baseball team owners also have a good intuitive feel for Position Scarcity, but it’s much more difficult to actually quantify. One of the features that sets my Fantasy Baseball Sherpa player rankings apart from the rest of the field is that I’ve developed an algorithm for quantifying Position Scarcity.

4. In your opinion what is the best draft position and why?

I’m probably in the minority, but I prefer to pick first rather than in the middle. Using my Position Scarcity-based player ranking system, I’m confident that I can put together a competitive team no matter which position I’m drafting from. However, going into the season there are usually 2-3 players I rank significantly higher than the rest, and it’s great to be able to snag one of them right off the bat! The only potential drawback to drafting at either end is being left out of a position run, so you may have to take a player you like a round or two earlier than you want to. I don’t worry too much about being left out of a position run (even if it’s a Closer run) - there are plenty of other inefficiencies that can be exploited during the draft no matter which position you’re picking from.

5. Who would you like in the 1st round?

I figure that Alex Rodriguez and Hanley Ramirez are likely to go with the first two picks, so I’ll probably be choosing among David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, and Johan Santana. I know that Lenny (Melnick, Paul’s co-host) is vehemently opposed to the idea of taking a Pitcher (even one as good as Santana) in the first round, but from a Position Scarcity standpoint it’s justified. By the way, when I say “Position Scarcity”, I don’t mean the relative number of options at a particular position - I’m looking more at the drop-off between a particular player and who I’m likely to wind up with in that roster position if I pass on him now (i.e. - the opportunity cost). One of the reasons I believe Santana is undervalued by most fantasy players is that they don’t have a good intuitive feel for the impact he has on the average-based categories (i.e. - ERA, WHIP). They’re much less intuitive than the counting categories (e.g. - Ks, Ws), but they’re worth just as much!

6. What player are you NOT going to take and why?

I’m staying away from Albert Pujols in the first round due to the concerns about his arm injury. Of course, he’s supposedly had this injury for several years and managed to perform at a high level in spite of it. However, I’m extremely risk averse with my first few picks and don’t want to take a chance on someone who has a known injury going into the season and could easily miss a month or more of the season (especially if, as I suspect, the Cardinals are lousy this year and decide to shut him down early). Before he spoke out about his injury, I thought he would play 155 games this season, and he’s someone I would have considered with a mid-late 1st round pick. After he spoke out about his injury, I lowered my projection for him to 145 games, at which point I’d no longer consider taking him with a 1st round pick.

7. How much prep work did you do for this Mock draft?

I did a lot of prep work for this mock draft, just like I would for any draft (real or mock) that I participate in. For a start-up business such as mine, every mock draft is an opportunity to market myself, and I intend to take full advantage of it!

8. Are you experimenting or playing to come out with the best team?

I’m definitely participating in this mock draft with the idea of coming out of it with the best team possible. Again, this is a great marketing opportunity for a start-up business like mine, and I want to give potential customers some insight into how I think and how the Sherpa system works!

Until next time,

The Sherpa