The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

This is the fifth in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 AL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including Matt Holliday’s A’s stats only (he ranked 74th based on 346 At-Bats).  The stats from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included.

1. Joe Mauer (Preseason rank was 75) - MIN, C

• Actual stats: 509 AB, 28 HR, 95 RBI, 4 SB, .367 AVG, 90 R, 3.32 Sherpa Pts (out of a max of 5.00)
• Projected stats: 437 AB, 8 HR, 66 RBI, 4 SB, .309 AVG, 72 R, 1.87 Sherpa Pts

2. Miguel Cabrera (2) - DET, 1B

• Actual stats: 595 AB, 33 HR, 101 RBI, 6 SB, .329 AVG, 95 R, 3.29 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 612 AB, 35 HR, 125 RBI, 3 SB, .310 AVG, 93 R, 3.46 Sherpa Pts

3. Mark Teixeira (7) - NYY, 1B

• Actual stats: 603 AB, 39 HR, 121 RBI, 2 SB, .294 AVG, 102 R, 3.21 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 557 AB, 32 HR, 113 RBI, 1 SB, .303 AVG, 96 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

4. Derek Jeter (24) - NYY, SS

• Actual stats: 627 AB, 18 HR, 66 RBI, 30 SB, .335 AVG, 107 R, 3.19 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 680 AB, 12 HR, 81 RBI, 17 SB, .307 AVG, 106 R, 2.78 Sherpa Pts

5. Carl Crawford (17) - TB, OF

• Actual stats: 598 AB, 15 HR, 68 RBI, 60 SB, .306 AVG, 95 R, 3.08 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 600 AB, 12 HR, 78 RBI, 44 SB, .293 AVG, 94 R, 2.88 Sherpa Pts

6. Adam Lind (65) - TOR, OF

• Actual stats: 587 AB, 35 HR, 114 RBI, 1 SB, .305 AVG, 93 R, 3.08 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 494 AB, 18 HR, 84 RBI, 2 SB, .289 AVG, 65 R, 2.01 Sherpa Pts

7. Aaron Hill (81) - TOR, 2B

• Actual stats: 670 AB, 36 HR, 107 RBI, 5 SB, .288 AVG, 102 R, 3.02 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 554 AB, 11 HR, 62 RBI, 5 SB, .287 AVG, 73 R, 1.76 Sherpa Pts

8. Robinson Cano (36) - NYY, 2B

• Actual stats: 628 AB, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 5 SB, .322 AVG, 103 R, 2.95 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 679 AB, 18 HR, 96 RBI, 4 SB, .296 AVG, 88 R, 2.55 Sherpa Pts

9. Jason Bay (27) - BOS, OF

• Actual stats: 522 AB, 36 HR, 116 RBI, 13 SB, .266 AVG, 102 R, 2.94 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 588 AB, 30 HR, 102 RBI, 8 SB, .274 AVG, 103 R, 2.70 Sherpa Pts

10. Kendry Morales (8) - LAA, 1B

• Actual stats: 559 AB, 34 HR, 107 RBI, 2 SB, .304 AVG, 85 R, 2.91 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 404 AB, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 1 SB, .297 AVG, 56 R, 1.71 Sherpa Pts

There were a number of surprises on this list.  I thought Adam Lind and Kendry Morales would be good, but not this good.  I didn’t think Joe Mauer and Aaron Hill could stay healthy long enough to accumulate the necessary At-Bats to be top fantasy producers, but I was mistaken. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.

You’ll also note that only two of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other eight, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!

74. Matt Holliday (1) - OAK, OF

• Actual stats: 346 AB, 11 HR, 54 RBI, 12 SB, .286 AVG, 52 R, 1.48 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 616 AB, 31 HR, 110 RBI, 20 SB, .318 AVG, 117 R, 3.85 Sherpa Pts

83. Josh Hamilton (3) - TEX, OF

• Actual stats: 336 AB, 10 HR, 54 RBI, 8 SB, .268 AVG, 43 R, 1.20 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 601 AB, 33 HR, 117 RBI, 8 SB, .303 AVG, 98 R, 3.34 Sherpa Pts

50. David Ortiz (4) - BOS, DH

• Actual stats: 533 AB, 28 HR, 97 RBI, 0 SB, .238 AVG, 76 R, 1.89 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 533 AB, 36 HR, 120 RBI, 2 SB, .295 AVG, 105 R, 3.21 Sherpa Pts

70. Vladimir Guerrero (5) - LAA, OF

• Actual stats: 377 AB, 15 HR, 50 RBI, 2 SB, .294 AVG, 58 R, 1.52 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 568 AB, 28 HR, 107 RBI, 6 SB, .315 AVG, 88 R, 3.17 Sherpa Pts

23. Alex Rodriguez (6) - NYY, 3B

• Actual stats: 437 AB, 28 HR, 93 RBI, 14 SB, .284 AVG, 76 R, 2.50 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 443 AB, 33 HR, 98 RBI, 16 SB, .302 AVG, 95 R, 3.14 Sherpa Pts

64. Grady Sizemore (8) - CLE, OF

• Actual stats: 436 AB, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 13 SB, .248 AVG, 73 R, 1.66 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 637 AB, 30 HR, 84 RBI, 33 SB, .275 AVG, 113 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

13. Ichiro Suzuki (9) - SEA, OF

• Actual stats: 628 AB, 11 HR, 46 RBI, 26 SB, .352 AVG, 87 R, 2.80 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 667 AB, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 41 SB, .324 AVG, 103 R, 3.10 Sherpa Pts

17. Ian Kinsler (10) - TEX, 2B

• Actual stats: 555 AB, 31 HR, 86 RBI, 31 SB, .254 AVG, 99 R, 2.68 Sherpa Pts
• Projected stats: 603 AB, 22 HR, 80 RBI, 27 SB, .297 AVG, 113 R, 3.09 Sherpa Pts 

As you might suspect, the biggest culprits for off-the-mark projections are injuries (i.e.- a lower-than-expected number of ABs) and/or a substandard AVG, which has ripple effects through other categories, such as RBI and R. 

We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to start developing our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll conclude this series with a look at the 2009 top 10 Pitchers in an AL-only 5×5 format as time permits.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for a Mixed League 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 62 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 31 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 246 AB, 22 HR, 62 RBI, 5 SB, .333 AVG, 53 R, 3.80 Total Sherpa Points
2. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 97 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.69 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 92 K, 3.48 Total Sherpa Points
3. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 289 AB, 17 HR, 54 RBI, 8 SB, .311 AVG, 57 R, 3.46 Total Sherpa Points
4. Tim Lincecum (SF, SP) - 100 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 117 K, 3.36 Total Sherpa Points
5. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 273 AB, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 11 SB, .326 AVG, 49 R, 3.32 Total Sherpa Points
6. Matt Kemp (LAD, OF) - 304 AB, 10 HR, 46 RBI, 17 sB, .313 AVG, 49 R, 3.22 Total Sherpa Points
7. Carl Crawford (TB, OF) - 302 AB, 7 HR, 36 RBI, 30 SB, .301 AVG, 48 R, 3.19 Total Sherpa Points
8. Ryan Braun (Mil, OF) - 292 AB, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 8 SB, .301 AVG, 52 R, 3.17 Total Sherpa Points
9. Alex Rodriguez (NYY, 3B) - 256 AB, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 7 SB, .281 AVG, 51 R, 3.17 Total Sherpa Points
10. Roy Halladay (Tor, SP) - 144 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 3.00 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 112 K, 3.10 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an AL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 60 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 40 RBI would be given a score of 0.67 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Roy Halladay (Tor, SP) - 100 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 3.06 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 80 K, 3.77 Total Sherpa Points
2. CC Sabathia (NYY, SP) - 107 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 3.53 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 89 K, 3.57 Total Sherpa Points
3. Alex Rodriguez (NYY, 3B) - 256 AB, 20 HR, 60 RBI, 7 SB, .281 AVG, 51 R, 3.34 Total Sherpa Points
4. Zack Greinke (KC, SP) - 94 IP, 5 W, 0 SV, 2.87 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 89 K, 3.29 Total Sherpa Points
5. Carl Crawford (TB, OF) - 302 AB, 7 HR, 36 RBI, 30 SB, .301 AVG, 47 R, 2.99 Total Sherpa Points
6. Miguel Cabrera (Det, 1B) - 283 AB, 16 HR, 51 RBI, 1 SB, .314 AVG, 45 R, 3.10 Total Sherpa Points
7. Bobby Abreu (LAA, OF) - 279 AB, 7 HR, 51 RBI, 15 SB, .301 AVG, 47 R, 2.99 Total Sherpa Points
8. Justin Morneau (Min, 1B) - 269 AB, 15 HR, 56 RBI, 0 SB, .305 AVG, 45 R, 2.96 Total Sherpa Points
9. Ichiro Suzuki (Sea, OF) - 305 AB, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 17 SB, .344 AVG, 43 R, 2.93 Total Sherpa Points
10. Nelson Cruz (Tex, OF) - 257 AB, 17 HR, 48 RBI, 10 SB, .276 AVG, 44 R, 2.90 Total Sherpa Points
11. Derek Jeter (NYY, SS) - 311 AB, 7 HR, 35 RBI, 12 SB, .315 AVG, 50 R, 2.90 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

This time of year many fantasy baseball team owners look to trades in an effort to improve their place in the standings.  Of course, everyone’s ideal is to trade away players who will perform worse over the remainder of the season than they have year-to-date, while simultaneously trading for players who will perform better over the remainder of the season than they have year-to-date.

How should you assess a player’s year-to-date value vs. his forecasted remainder-of season value?  Using Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s In-season Updates tool, an owner can quantify both of these values in an effort to identify players who are currently undervalued and overvalued.  Fantasy Baseball Sherpa assigns a score of 1.00 Sherpa Points to the league leader in each category.  All other players are assigned a score for that category based on their result relative to the league leader’s result.

For example, if the league leader has hit 26 HRs year-to-date, then a player who has hit 13 HRs year-to-date would be assigned a scoreof 0.50 Sherpa Points.  For ratio categories (e.g.- AVG, ERA) a proxy statistic is used.  A player’s scores in each category can be added up to determine the player’s Total Sherpa Points.  A player’s maximum score is equal to the number of categories used (note:  this maximum score will be different for Hitters and Pitchers if your league uses a different number of categories for Hitters and Pitchers).

Here are 10 American League Hitters who are good buy-low candidates for a league using the standard 5 Hitting categories (AVG, Home Runs, RBI, Stolen Bases, & Runs Scored) based on stats through games of Sun 6/21/09:

1. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY (3.07 Remainder-of-Season Total Sherpa Points - 0.85 Year-to-Date Total Sherpa Points = +2.22)
2. Vlad Guerrero, OF, LAA (2.15 - 0.57 = +1.58)
3. Marcus Thames, OF, Det (1.98 - 0.62 =+1.36)
4. Matt Wieters, C, Bal (1.51 - 0.16 = +1.35)
5. David Ortiz, DH, Bos (1.89 - 0.67 = +1.24)
6. Matt Holliday, OF, Oak (2.90 - 1.77 = +1.13)
7. Josh Anderson, OF, Det (1.82 - 0.73 = +1.09)
8. Gordon Beckham, 2B, CWS (1.21 - 0.13 = +1.08)
9. Chris Davis, 1B/3B, Tex (1.76 - 0.74 = +1.02)
10. Pat Burrell, OF, TB (1.38 - 0.42 = +0.96)

Here are 10 American League Hitters who are good sell-high candidates for a league using the standard 5 Hitting categories based on stats through games of Sun 6/21/09:

1. Marco Scutaro, SS, Tor (1.34 - 2.16 = -0.82)
2. Adam Kennedy, 2B, Oak (0.66 - 1.33 = -0.67)
3. Brandon Inge, C/3B, Det (1.52 - 2.18 = -0.66)
4. Aaron Hill, 2B, Tor (1.90 - 2.53 = -0.63)
5. Scott Rolen, 3B, Tor (1.25 - 1.84 = -0.59)
6. Victor Martinez, C/1B, Cle (2.27 - 2.81 = -0.54)
7. Jason Bartlett, SS, TB (2.07 - 2.52 = -0.52)
8. Ben Zobrist, 2B/SS, TB (1.92 - 2.35 = -0.43)
9. Adam Lind, OF, Tor (2.11 - 2.46 = -0.35)
10. Melky Cabrera, OF, NYY (1.11 - 1.42 = -0.31)

Of course, there are a number of reasons why a player’s performance over the remainder of the season may vary significantly from his performance year-to-date, including normal variation in results, injuries, changes in roles, etc.  By attempting to quantify both a player’s year-to-date and remainder-of-season results, we can take at least some of the guesswork out of identifying buy-low and sell-high candidates.

I’ll take a look at NL Hitters in my next post.

Until then,

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for a Mixed League 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 80 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 40 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 340 AB, 28 HR, 78 RBI, 7 SB, .329 AVG, 69 R, 3.66 Total Sherpa Points
2. Roy Halladay (Tor, SP) - 144 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 3.00 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 112 K, 3.49 Total Sherpa Points
3. Johan Santana (NYM, SP) - 140 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 3.09 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 145 K, 3.43 Total Sherpa Points
4. David Wright (NYM, 3B) - 368 AB, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 19 SB, .332 AVG, 66 R, 3.41 Total Sherpa Points
5. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 385 AB, 22 HR, 71 RBI, 9 SB, .309 AVG, 77 R, 3.37 Total Sherpa Points
6. Dan Haren (Ari, SP) - 131 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 3.02 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 121 K, 3.35 Total Sherpa Points
7. Tim Lincecum (SF, SP) - 136 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 2.98 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 160 K, 3.23 Total Sherpa Points
8. CC Sabathia (NYY, SP) - 144 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 122 K, 3.20 Total Sherpa Points
9. Alex Rodriguez (NYY, 3B) - 354 AB, 26 HR, 78 RBI, 11 SB, .282 AVG, 70 R, 3.19 Total Sherpa Points
10. Carl Crawford (TB, OF) - 401 AB, 8 HR, 49 RBI, 40 SB, .302 AVG, 65 R, 3.18 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an AL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 80 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 40 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Roy Halladay (Tor, SP) - 144 IP, 9 W, 0 SV, 3.00 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 112 K, 3.82 Total Sherpa Points
2. CC Sabathia (NYY, SP) - 144 IP, 10 W, 0 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 122 K, 3.59 Total Sherpa Points
3. Alex Rodriguez (NYY, 3B) - 354 AB, 26 HR, 78 RBI, 11 SB, .282 AVG, 70 R, 3.43 Total Sherpa Points
4. Carl Crawford (TB, OF) - 401 AB, 8 HR, 49 RBI, 40 SB, .302 AVG, 65 R, 3.31 Total Sherpa Points
5. Torii Hunter (LAA, OF) - 359 AB, 20 HR, 68 RBI, 14 SB, .295 AVG, 63 R, 3.21 Total Sherpa Points
6. Zack Greinke (KC, SP) - 127 IP, 7 W, 0 SV, 2.98 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 119 K, 3.14 Total Sherpa Points
7. Miguel Cabrera (Det, 1B) - 374 AB, 20 HR, 72 RBI, 2 SB, .313 AVG, 58 R, 3.14 Total Sherpa Points
8. Nelson Cruz (Tex, OF) - 343 AB, 23 HR, 68 RBI, 12 SB, .289 AVG, 60 R, 3.13 Total Sherpa Points
9. Matt Holliday (Oak, OF) - 380 AB, 17 HR, 66 RBI, 10 SB, .303 AVG, 65 R, 3.11 Total Sherpa Points
10. Justin Morneau (Min, 1B) - 358 AB, 19 HR, 75 RBI, 0 SB, .310 AVG, 61 R, 3.07 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Back in February when Alex Rodriguez admitted to having used steroids from 2001-2003 while with the Texas Rangers, I did an analysis of A-Rod’s career from a fantasy baseball perspective.  My goal was to determine whether A-Rod’s use of banned substances had a significant impact on his stats during his “Steroids Period”.

Here’s a summary of my findings:  ” . . . while Rodriguez may have been more consistent from 2001-2003 than over any other three-year period of his career, he definitely did not perform at a higher level relative to his peers during those years . . .”

This summary would naturally lead you to one of two conclusions:  (1) the steroids did not have a significant impact on A-Rod’s performance, at least not on the baseball field (i.e. - the A-Rod version), or (2) A-Rod’s steroid use was most likely not confined to the three-year period in question (i.e.- the Selena Roberts version).

Today Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games, apparently for testing positive for a banned substance related to off-the-field performance issues (and cycling off of steroids).  Once again, two conclusions are possible: (1) this was all just an honest mistake on the part of Manny and/or his doctor (i.e.- the dog ate my homework version, as Buster Olney referred to it today on ESPN.com), or (2) A-Rod is not the only active big-name player who has used performance-enhancing drugs (i.e.- the common sense version).

Whichever conclusion you wish to believe, I thought it would be interesting to view Manny’s career accomplishments through the same prism I applied to A-Rod’s back in February.

On my website FantasyBaseballSherpa.com I’ve created a method of evaluating players’ fantasy baseball impact called the Sherpa Points system.  For counting stats such as home runs, RBI, etc., the league leader in the category is assigned a Sherpa Points score of 1.00.  A player with half the league leader’s total in that category would receive a 0.50 Sherpa Points, a player with a quarter of the league leader’s total in that category would receive 0.25 Sherpa Points, etc. 

For rate stats such as batting average a proxy statistic can be used.  To get a player’s Total Sherpa Points across all fantasy categories, you simply add up his Sherpa Points in each individual category.  If your fantasy league uses n hitting categories, then the maximum Total Sherpa Points would be n.  Thus, we have a straightforward method of evaluating a player’s overall fantasy impact.  The same method can be used to evaluate pitchers.

For the standard five hitting categories (AVG, HR, RBI, SB, R) here are Manny Ramirez’ Total Sherpa Points scores by year since he became a full-time player in 1995 (max possible score is 5.00):

• 1995:  2.64
• 1996:  2.59
• 1997:  2.33
• 1998:  2.79
• 1999:  3.31
• 2000:  2.82
• 2001:  2.35
• 2002:  2.83
• 2003:  3.03
• 2004:  2.93
• 2005:  3.09
• 2006:  2.38
• 2007:  1.78
• 2008:  3.22

As was the case with A-Rod, Manny’s stats have shown a fair amount of year-to-year variation, which is to be expected.  However, unlike A-Rod, Manny was not a bona fide superstar in his first full year in the league.  To be fair, some of that is attributable to the fact that A-Rod has always been more active on the basepaths than Manny (whose career high for SBs was 8 in his 2nd season in the league), and he’s also consistently scored more runs than Manny.  A-Rod’s higher runs scored could be attributable to being more active on the basepaths, having better “RBI guys” hitting behind him in the lineup, and especially to the fact that A-Rod’s consistently played more games in a season than Manny.

Coincidentally (or maybe not), both A-Rod and Manny had big power spikes in 1998 (Manny’s 4th full season; A-Rod’s 3rd).  A-Rod’s HR total jumped from 23 in 1997 to 42 in 1998, while Manny’s increased from 26 in 1997 to 45 in 1998.  Coincidentally (or maybe not), 1998 was also the year that Mark McGwire’s HR total increased from 34 to 70, and Sammy Sosa’s increased from 36 to 66.

Manny’s career stats are more difficult to evaluate than A-Rod’s, primarily due to his having missed major chunks of time in four seasons (2000, 2002, 2006, and 2007), while A-Rod has missed significant amounts of time in just two seasons prior to this one (1999, 2008).  Also, since we don’t have a “confession” yet from Manny, we can’t really compare his performance from one period of his career with the rest of his career, the way we can with A-Rod.

Yet one thing is clear in both A-Rod’s and Manny’s cases.  A-Rod had the two best seasons of his career from a fantasy perspective in 2005 (the season he turned 30) and 2007 (the season he turned 32).  Manny had the second best season of his career in 2008 (the season he turned 36).  Yes, they are both supremely talented players.  Yes, knowledge regarding both nutrition and conditioning are much more advanced than they were a generation ago.  And yes, there is historical precedent for All-Star players performing at a high level well into their 30s - Willie Mays didn’t drop off until the season he turned 35, and Hank Aaron was still productive at age 38.

However, given that both A-Rod and Manny have tested positive for banned substances at the same time they were turning in some of the best performances of their career, it’s almost impossible to believe that any of their accomplishments were done without the aid of performance-enhancing drugs.  That’s one of the few things that even Yankee fans and Red Sox fans can agree on.

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for a 5×5 Mixed League format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 110 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 55 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. Albert Pujols (StL, 1B) - 482 AB, 35 HR, 110 RBI, 7 SB, .332 AVG, 96 R, 3.71 Total Sherpa Points
2. Johan Santana (NYM, SP) - 196 IP, 12 W, 0 SV, 2.71 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 200 K, 3.65 Total Sherpa Points
3. Matt Kemp (LAD, OF) - 577 AB, 19 HR, 88 RBI, 31 SB, .308 AVG, 101 R, 3.45 Total Sherpa Points
4. Alfonso Soriano (ChC, OF) - 567 AB, 37 HR, 85 RBI, 25 SB, .286 AVG, 102 R, 3.35 Total Sherpa Points
5. Chase Utley (Phi, 2B) - 508 AB, 28 HR, 96 RBI, 12 SB, .313 AVG, 102 R, 3.35 Total Sherpa Points
6. Alex Rodriguez (NYY, 3B) - 448 AB, 33 HR, 99 RBI, 16 SB, .304 AVG, 96 R, 3.30 Total Sherpa Points
7. Matt Holliday (Oak, OF) - 548 AB, 24 HR, 97 RBI, 16 SB, .310 AVG, 96 R, 3.28 Total Sherpa Points
8. Hanley Ramirez (Fla, SS) - 549 AB, 29 HR, 81 RBI, 23 SB, .299 AVG, 98 R, 3.25 Total Sherpa Points
9. Miguel Cabrera (Det, 1B) - 533 AB, 30 HR, 107 RBI, 3 SB, .319 AVG, 82 R, 3.24 Total Sherpa Points
10.  Ryan Braun (Mil, OF) - 552 AB, 33 HR, 99 RBI, 18 SB, .292 AVG, 93 R, 3.33 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Hi everyone,

Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an AL-only 5×5 format.  The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 33 HR, then a player with a forecast of 22 HR would be given a score of 0.67 Sherpa Points).  The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).

1. CC Sabathia (NYY, SP) - 203 IP, 15 W, 0 SV, 3.37 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 180 K, 3.77 Total Sherpa Points
2. Roy Halladay (Tor, SP) - 206 IP, 13 W, 0 SV, 3.41 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 154 K, 3.71 Total Sherpa Points
3. Alex Rodriguez (NYY, 3B) - 448 AB, 33 HR, 99 RBI, 16 SB, .304 AVG, 96 R, 3.65 Total Sherpa Points
4. Matt Holliday (Oak, OF) - 548 AB, 24 HR, 97 RBI, 16 SB, .310 AVG, 96 R, 3.59 Total Sherpa Points
5. Miguel Cabrera (Det, 1B) - 533 AB, 30 HR, 107 RBI, 3 SB, .319 AVG, 82 R, 3.58 Total Sherpa Points
6. Ian Kinsler (Tex, 2B) - 529 AB, 23 HR, 78 RBI, 26 SB, .301 AVG, 101 R, 3.45 Total Sherpa Points
7. Josh Hamilton (Tex, OF) - 527 AB, 27 HR, 100 RBI, 9 SB, .296 AVG, 83 R, 3.17 Total Sherpa Points
8. Nick Markakis (Bal, OF) - 537 AB, 17 HR, 89 RBI, 8 SB, .313 AVG, 95 R, 3.15 Total Sherpa Points
9. Kevin Youkilis (Bos, 1B/3B) - 508 AB, 22 HR, 92 RBI, 4 SB, .311 AVG, 91 R, 3.14 Total Sherpa Points
10. Ichiro Suzuki (Sea, OF) - 576 AB, 6 HR, 4 RBI, 35 SB, .323 AVG, 88 R, 3.14 Total Sherpa Points

If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.  These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.

Enjoy!

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Towards the end of the 1983 classic Return of the Jedi Emperor Palpatine tells Luke Skywalker “I can feel your anger” as he implores Luke to join the Dark Side of the Force.  Yes, by making a Star Wars reference I’m dating myself, but as a friend of mine used to say, somebody’s got to do it.

Much like the Emperor Palpatine, I can feel the anger directed towards Alex Rodriguez by baseball fans in the wake of his recent admission that he used steroids from 2001-2003 while a member of the Texas Rangers.  What impact did A-Rod’s steroid use have on his fantasy baseball value?  Surprisingly, the answer is “not much”.

On my website FantasyBaseballSherpa.com I’ve created a method of evaluating players’ fantasy baseball impact called the Sherpa Points system.  For counting stats such as home runs, RBI, etc., the league leader in the category is assigned a Sherpa Points score of 1.00.  A player with half the league leader’s total in that category would receive a 0.50 Sherpa Points, a player with a quarter of the league leader’s total in that category would receive 0.25 Sherpa Points, etc. 

For rate stats such as batting average a proxy statistic can be used.  To get a player’s Total Sherpa Points across all fantasy categories, you simply add up his Sherpa Points in each individual category.  If your fantasy league uses n hitting categories, then the maximum Total Sherpa Points would be n.  Thus, we have a straightforward method of evaluating a player’s overall fantasy impact.  The same method can be used to evaluate pitchers.

For the standard five hitting categories (AVG, HR, RBI, SB, R) here are Alex Rodriguez’ Total Sherpa Points scores by year since he became a full-time player in 1996 (max possible score is 5.00):

• 1996:  3.70
• 1997:  2.37
• 1998:  3.63
• 1999:  2.57
• 2000:  3.29
• 2001:  3.35
• 2002:  3.67
• 2003:  3.34
• 2004:  2.87
• 2005:  3.89
• 2006:  2.77
• 2007:  3.80
• 2008:  2.92

The preceding makes it clear that while Rodriguez may have been more consistent from 2001-2003 than over any other three-year period of his career, he definitely did not perform at a higher level relative to his peers during those years.  In fact, his best year during his “Steroid Period” (2002) stacks up as only the fourth-best fantasy season of his career, trailing 2005, 2007, and even 1996!

Perhaps you despise Rodriguez because you don’t like his personality, you think he doesn’t come through during the playoffs, you believe he’s still taking illegal substances, you hate the Yankees, or you get tired of reading about his off-the-field antics in the tabloids.  Whatever the reason, if you want to maximize your chances for fantasy baseball success in 2009, you need to set that all aside and take him this year if he’s available when it’s your turn to draft.

I project the following stats for Rodriguez for 2009:  .302 AVG, 44 HR, 133 RBI, 21 SB, 128 R, 3.65 Total Sherpa Points.  When you factor in Position Scarcity (the drop-off between the top-rated options and the mediocre options at each position), you could make an argument that Hanley Ramirez (3.44 projected Total Sherpa Points) should be the top overall pick.  However, given the relative uncertainty surrounding Ramirez (e.g. – will he be batting leadoff or third?  will his supporting cast be weaker this year than in the past?), I would argue strongly for Rodriguez as the first overall pick.

Let go of your anger – it will not serve you well.

Until next time,

The Sherpa