Hi everyone,
Here’s my fantasy baseball video preview of the 2012 Chicago Cubs’ hitters - please let me know what you think!
Until next time,
The Sherpa
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This is the third in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. In this post I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including only Matt Holliday’s Cardinals’ stats (he ranked 56th overall based on 235 At-Bats).
1. Albert Pujols (Preseason rank was 1) - STL, 1B
2. Hanley Ramirez (3) - FLA, SS
3. Ryan Braun (7) - MIL, OF
4. Prince Fielder (24) - MIL, 1B
5. Matt Kemp (2) - LAD, OF
6. Ryan Howard (11) - PHI, 1B
7. Chase Utley (16) - PHI, 2B
8. Troy Tulowitzki (67) - COL, SS
9. Mark Reynolds (43) - ARI, 1B/3B
10. Derrek Lee (18) - CHC, 1B
The most interesting observation from my perspective - Hanley Ramirez’ shift from first to third in the Marlins’ batting order had exactly the opposite effect from what I’d projected. Instead of increasing his power numbers at the expense of his batting average, the reverse occurred. Also, it’s interesting to see how a higher-than-expected Stolen Base total can lead to a large spike in a player’s fantasy value (e.g.- Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Troy Tulowitzki, Mark Reynolds, Ryan Howard). Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.
You’ll also note that only four of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other six, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!
21. David Wright (4) - NYM, 3B
140. Jose Reyes (5) - NYM, SS
77. Alfonso Soriano (6) - ChC, OF
53. Carlos Beltran (8) - NYM, OF
51. Manny Ramirez (9) - LAD, OF
33. Lance Berkman (10) - HOU, 1B
We’re gearing up here in Sherpaville to develop our projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Pitchers in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.
Until next time,
The Sherpa
The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog
@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter
The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page
This will be the first in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2009. Today I’ll start with the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 mixed league format. The statistics from the Twins-Tigers play-in game are not included here.
Albert Pujols captured the top spot for the second straight season. AVG remains the most difficult hitting category to project. Injuries obviously impact the actual rankings (e.g. - Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran), but so do changes in batting order position (e.g. - Matt Kemp). Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.
You’ll also note that only 5 of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list (that was also the case in 2008). Who were the other five, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!
13. Matt Holliday (1) - OAK/STL, OF
54. David Wright (5) - NYM, 3B
259. Jose Reyes (6) - NYM, SS
165. Alfonso Soriano (7) - CHC, OF
116. Carlos Beltran (10) - NYM, OF
We’re getting ready here in Sherpaville to develop projections for the 2010 season, but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2009 top 10 Pitchers in a mixed league 5×5 format as time permits.
Until next time,
The Sherpa
The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog
@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter
The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Facebook fan page
This time of year many fantasy baseball team owners look to trades in an effort to improve their place in the standings. Of course, everyone’s ideal is to trade away players who will perform worse over the remainder of the season than they have year-to-date, while simultaneously trading for players who will perform better over the remainder of the season than they have year-to-date.
How should you assess a player’s year-to-date value vs. his forecasted remainder-of season value? Using Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s In-season Updates tool, an owner can quantify both of these values in an effort to identify players who are currently undervalued and overvalued. Fantasy Baseball Sherpa assigns a score of 1.00 Sherpa Points to the league leader in each category. All other players are assigned a score for that category based on their result relative to the league leader’s result.
For example, if the league leader has hit 26 HRs year-to-date, then a player who has hit 13 HRs year-to-date would be assigned a scoreof 0.50 Sherpa Points. For ratio categories (e.g.- AVG, ERA) a proxy statistic is used. A player’s scores in each category can be added up to determine the player’s Total Sherpa Points. A player’s maximum score is equal to the number of categories used (note: this maximum score will be different for Hitters and Pitchers if your league uses a different number of categories for Hitters and Pitchers).
Here are 10 National League Hitters who are good buy-low candidates for a league using the standard 5 Hitting categories (AVG, Home Runs, RBI, Stolen Bases, & Runs Scored) based on stats through games of Sun 6/21/09:
Here are 10 National League Hitters who are good sell-high candidates for a league using the standard 5 Hitting categories based on stats through games of Sun 6/21/09:
Of course, there are a number of reasons why a player’s performance over the remainder of the season may vary significantly from his performance year-to-date, including normal variation in results, injuries, changes in roles, etc. By attempting to quantify both a player’s year-to-date and remainder-of-season results, we can take at least some of the guesswork out of identifying buy-low and sell-high candidates.
Until next time,
The Sherpa
So, it’s Sunday night or Monday morning, and your league’s weekly lineup submissions are due. You’re trying to decide among three starting pitchers (whether on your current roster or not) to fill your last pitching slot. How should you go about it?
You could “go with your gut” and hope for the best (good luck with that). You could look up each pitcher’s historical record (assuming he has one) against his upcoming opponent(s) and use that as a guide, ignoring the fact that a team’s roster is likely to experience significant turnover from season to season that will render historical results obsolete. You could rely on the Remainder-of-Season Forecasts in the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s In-season Updates (shameless self-promotion).
While the third option is definitely better than the first two, it still leaves out one crucial component if you’re trying to make a short-term decision on which pitcher to start: the quality of the pitcher’s opponent. How can this be quantified? The same way you would quantify the pitcher’s results - look at the historical data.
To assess a starting pitcher’s upcoming matchup(s) we want to use opponents’ success (or lack thereof) against a specific team. For example, if I play in a league that uses the standard 5 pitching categories (Wins, Saves, Ks, ERA, WHIP), I’ll want to look at MLB Opponent Pitching Stats in each category that involves starting pitchers, so that eliminates Saves from my list.
I want to set my scoring system up so that the least desirable opponents have the highest scores, and the most desirable opponents have the lowest scores. The least desirable opponent would have the highest number of Wins (equivalently, the lowest number of losses), the biggest difference between AB and Strikeouts (or, if you prefer, the lowest Strikeout per AB rate), the highest number of Runs Scored (using this as a proxy for ERA), and the highest number of Walks + Hits (using this as a proxy for WHIP). Conversely, the most desirable opponent would have the lowest number of Wins (equivalently, the highest number of losses), the highest Strikeout per AB rate, the lowest number of Runs Scored, and the lowest number of Walks + Hits.
We can set up a scoring system for which the “best” team in each category receives a score of 1.00, and all other teams receive a score between 0 and 1 depending on the ratio of their result to the result of the best team in each category. Thus, the maximum score is the number of pitching categories under consideration (4 in my example). Add up a team’s results in each category to get its overall score; again, the lower the overall score, the more desirable the opponent.
Based on games through 6/20/09, here’s how the 30 MLB teams rank using the 4 categories in my example (with their accompanying score):
No surprise to see teams like the Nationals, Royals, Padres, A’s, Mariners, and Giants at the top of the list of most desirable opponents, but the presence of the Cubs among the “worst” offensive teams is a bit of a surprise to me. If you’d asked me before the season started, I would have told you that the Cubs should have one of the best offenses in baseball. Of course, Aramis Ramirez’ injury combined with slow starts by Geovany Soto, Derrek Lee, and Alfonso Soriano have all contributed to the Cubs’ abysmal ranking. However, it points out the need to take a quick glance at a team’s current overall health compared to its health season-to-date. The NY Mets are ranked in the middle of the pack according to this chart, but sans Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes, they’re obviously a less formidable foe now than they would be if this pair were healthy. Tracking the standings over time (I’d suggest weekly or bi-weekly updates) will give you a good sense of which team’s offenses are improving, treading water, or getting worse.
The approach I’ve outlined above can take some of the guesswork out of selecting starting pitchers for your weekly lineups. Of course, use your common sense - given the choice, I’d much rather start Johan Santana against the Dodgers than start Livan Hernandez or Tim Redding against the Padres. However, if you’re deciding among several pitchers of similar quality, this analysis can be extremely useful.
Until next time!
The Sherpa
The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog
So, it’s Sunday night or Monday morning, and your league’s weekly lineup submissions are due. You’re trying to decide among three starting pitchers (whether on your current roster or not) to fill your last pitching slot. How should you go about it?
You could “go with your gut” and hope for the best (good luck with that). You could look up each pitcher’s historical record (assuming he has one) against his upcoming opponent(s) and use that as a guide, ignoring the fact that a team’s roster is likely to experience significant turnover from season to season that will render historical results obsolete. You could rely on the Remainder-of-Season Forecasts in the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s In-season Updates (shameless self-promotion).
While the third option is definitely better than the first two, it still leaves out one crucial component if you’re trying to make a short-term decision on which pitcher to start: the quality of the pitcher’s opponent. How can this be quantified? The same way you would quantify the pitcher’s results - look at the historical data.
To assess a starting pitcher’s upcoming matchup(s) we want to use opponents’ success (or lack thereof) against a specific team. For example, if I play in a league that uses the standard 5 pitching categories (Wins, Saves, Ks, ERA, WHIP), I’ll want to look at MLB Opponent Pitching Stats in each category that involves starting pitchers, so that eliminates Saves from my list.
I want to set my scoring system up so that the least desirable opponents have the highest scores, and the most desirable opponents have the lowest scores. The least desirable opponent would have the highest number of Wins (equivalently, the lowest number of losses), the biggest difference between AB and Strikeouts (or, if you prefer, the lowest Strikeout per AB rate), the highest number of Runs Scored (using this as a proxy for ERA), and the highest number of Walks + Hits (using this as a proxy for WHIP). Conversely, the most desirable opponent would have the lowest number of Wins (equivalently, the highest number of losses), the highest Strikeout per AB rate, the lowest number of Runs Scored, and the lowest number of Walks + Hits.
We can set up a scoring system for which the “best” team in each category receives a score of 1.00, and all other teams receive a score between 0 and 1 depending on the ratio of their result to the result of the best team in each category. Thus, the maximum score is the number of pitching categories under consideration (4 in my example). Add up a team’s results in each category to get its overall score; again, the lower the overall score, the more desirable the opponent.
Based on games through 6/13/09, here’s how the 30 MLB teams rank using the 4 categories in my example (with their accompanying score):
No surprise to see teams like the Nationals, Royals, Padres, A’s, Mariners, and Giants at the top of the list of most desirable opponents, but the presence of the Cubs among the “worst” offensive teams is a bit of a surprise to me. If you’d asked me before the season started, I would have told you that the Cubs should have one of the best offenses in baseball. Of course, Aramis Ramirez’ injury combined with slow starts by Geovany Soto, Derrek Lee, and (to a lesser extent) Alfonso Soriano have all contributed to the Cubs’ abysmal ranking. However, it points out the need to take a quick glance at a team’s current overall health compared to its health season-to-date. The NY Mets might be ranked as one of the least desirable opponents according to this chart, but sans Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes, they’re obviously a less formidable foe now than they would be if this pair were healthy.
Nevertheless, the approach I’ve outlined above can take some of the guesswork out of selecting starting pitchers for your weekly lineups. Of course, use your common sense - given the choice, I’d much rather start Johan Santana against the Dodgers (yes, in spite of his awful start today against the Yankees!) than Livan Hernandez or Tim Redding against the Nationals. However, if you’re deciding among several pitchers of similar quality, this analysis can be extremely useful.
Until next time!
The Sherpa
The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog
Hi everyone,
Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for a 5×5 Mixed League format. The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 110 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 55 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points). The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).
If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings. These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.
Enjoy!
The Sherpa
Hi everyone,
Here are the forecasted Top 10 performers for the rest of the season for an NL-only 5×5 format. The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the forecast for the league-leader is 110 RBI, then a player with a forecast of 55 RBI would be given a score of 0.50 Sherpa Points). The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).
If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings. These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.
Enjoy!
The Sherpa
Hi everyone,
Here are the Top 10 performers through April for an NL-only 5×5 format. The leader in each category is given 1.00 Sherpa Points; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their results relative to the category leader’s (e.g. - if the league-leader has hit 9 HR, then a player with 3 HR would be given a score of 0.33 Sherpa Points). The maximum Total Sherpa Points is equal to the number of categories (i.e. - 5.00).
If you’re interested in more details, here’s a description of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings. These are the only rankings in the industry that are updated daily throughout the season - our Remainder-of-Season rankings reflect injuries, minor league call-ups, and role changes (e.g.- new Closers)! If you’d like to see the top performers by position, change the scoring categories, or change the league type, here’s a demo of our In-season Updates to Player Projections & Rankings.
Enjoy!
The Sherpa
This is the third in a series of posts taking a look back at the top fantasy baseball performers for 2008. Today I’ll review the top 10 Hitters using a 5×5 NL-only format. For the purposes of this analysis I’m including only Manny Ramirez’ Dodgers’ stats (he ranked 59th overall based on just 59 At-Bats!) and Mark Teixeira’s Braves’ stats (he ranked 56th based on 381 At-Bats)
1. Albert Pujols (Preseason rank was 4) - STL, 1B
2. David Wright (3) - NYM, 3B
3. Hanley Ramirez (2) - FL, SS
4. Lance Berkman (13) - HOU, 1B/OF
5. Matt Holliday (1) - COL, OF
6. Jose Reyes (8) - NYM, SS
7. Carlos Beltran (18) - NYM, OF
8. Chase Utley (5) - PHI, 2B
9. Ryan Ludwick (81) - STL, OF
10. Ryan Braun (14) - MIL, 3B/OF
The most interesting observation from my perspective - the impact of batting order position (imagine what Hanley Ramirez could do if he batted 3rd or 4th) and the lower-than-expected SB totals for both Ramirez and Jose Reyes, which bring them back to the pack somewhat in the overall rankings. Injuries also impacted the actual rankings (e.g. - Matt Holliday and Chase Utley), as did the lack of anticipated injuries (e.g. - Albert Pujols). Ryan Ludwick is the only name on the list I’d term a complete surprise. Dividing the Sherpa Pts by the AB gives a decent indicator of the overall accuracy of the initial projection compared to the actual results.
You’ll also note that only 6 of the Hitters listed above were in my preseason top 10 list. Who were the other four, and how did they fare? I’m glad you asked!
11. Ryan Howard (6) - PHI, 1B
29. Jimmy Rollins (7) - PHI, SS
25. Alfonso Soriano (9) - ChC, OF
21. Derrek Lee (10) - ChC, 1B
We’re already busy here in Sherpaville developing projections for the 2009 season (we’re one of several projection providers selected for the 2009 season by Mock Draft Central!), but I’ll continue this series with a look at the 2008 top 10 Pitchers in an NL-only 5×5 format as time permits.
Until next time,
The Sherpa