The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

With just over 40% of the regular season remaining to be played, the 32 MLB teams now have a pretty idea of whether they will contend for a playoff spot this season. All of the contenders are looking for ways to upgrade their team in the weeks leading up to the July 31st trading deadline.

Most of the rumored acquisitions would represent incremental improvements rather than dramatic upgrades. However, there is one exception, the proverbial elephant in the room. Of course, that would be Barry Lamar Bonds, the all-time home run leader (until at least 2014-15, when Alex Rodriguez should assume that title, assuming he stays reasonably healthy and doesn’t suffer a dramatic drop-off in his production).

Many baseball insiders doubt that Bonds will play again, at least not this season. Bonds’ agent, Jeff Borris, recently voiced the opinion of many when he stated that his star client has been blacklisted by the baseball establishment. That may be due to Bonds’ age (he’ll be 44 next week), his inability to stay healthy/play in the outfield for extended periods of time, his ongoing legal entanglements related to alleged steroid and HGH use, his clubhouse demeanor, the accompanying media circus, or some combination of these factors. Whatever the reason(s), teams collectively feel that the distractions Bonds’ presence would create outweigh his remaining usefulness as a hitter (among all Hitters with at least 20 AB in 2007, Bonds led the majors with a .480 On Base Percentage!)

I may be in the minority, but I still firmly believe that the temptation of adding a hitter of Bonds’ stature to his lineup will prove too much to resist for some GM as the July 31st trading deadline nears, then passes. Someone will crack, break the glass, grab the jewels, and run. Of the 32 MLB teams, I believe there are 8 candidates to do just that:

1. Tampa Bay - Bonds would represent a huge upgrade over Jonny Gomes, Cliff Floyd, Eric Hinske, or anyone else the Rays may be tempted to trot out at DH. Besides, who could resist Tampa’s potential marketing slogan (”putting the Devil back in the Rays”)? Bonds would definitely inject life (and hopefully nothing else) into Tampa’s inconsistent offense.
2. NY Mets - far less likely because of Bonds’ assumed inability to play the outfield on a consistent basis. However, who would you rather have in left field 4-5 games per week - Bonds, Fernando Tatis, Nick Evans, Endy Chavez, or Angel Pagan?
3. Detroit - depending on how both Gary Sheffield’s body and the Tigers’ pitchers’ arms hold up, this could also be a good match.
4. Minnesota - signing Bonds would relegate either Jason Kubel or Michael Cuddyer to the bench.
5. Los Angeles Angels - less likely, because signing Bonds to DH would force Vlad Guerrero to play right field almost every day, which the Angels seem reluctant to do.
6. NY Yankees - Hideki Matsui may be out for the rest of the season, which would add to the offensive woes for the surprisingly run-challenged Bombers’ offense. However, with Jorge Posada, Johnny Damon, and Jason Giambi all needing to occupy the DH spot on occasion already, Bonds wouldn’t fit as well here as he would with some of the other teams further up the list.
7. Oakland - Frank Thomas and Mike Sweeney are already injured, so what’s the downside to adding Bonds? Sure, the A’s have a surplus of outfielder/DH types at this point (Exhibit A: Jack Cust). However, in an organization that places a high value on OBP and has surprisingly managed to stay within shouting distance of the Anemic Angels in spite of a “Who’s he?” pitching staff, Bonds may make sense.
8. Boston - Bonds is a logical replacement for the Red Sox if David Ortiz turns out to be less than fully recovered from his tendon sheath injury.

So, assuming that some GM soon does the “unthinkable”, what kind of stats should a fantasy team owner expect Bonds to produce over the last 2 months or so of the season? Here are my projections:

• 45 Games Played
• 148 At Bats
• 31 Runs
• 41 Hits
• 8 Doubles
• 0 Triples
• 11 Home Runs
• 29 Runs Batted In
• 44 Walks
• 22 Strikeouts
• .457 On Base Percentage
• .554 Slugging Percentage
• 1.011 On Base + Slugging Percentage

Would those kinds of stats pique your interest and help your fantasy team? I thought so. Unless you have moral qualms about owning Bonds, he’s definitely worth a speculative pick-up in your league right now if your rules permit, you have the roster space, and he’s available.

Go get him!

Until next time,

The Sherpa

One of the more challenging (and entertaining) aspects of managing a fantasy baseball roster is the ongoing need to juggle your roster. Perhaps you’re frantically scanning your league’s free agent/waiver wire for a short-term fill-in for your star player who just landed on the DL. Maybe you’re just looking to upgrade the fringes of your roster, or you’re seeking a player to fill a potential hole in your line-up that will be created if you pull the trigger on that trade you’re considering. Regardless of your motivation, the following is The Sherpa’s list of players who may still be available in your league.

I’m assuming that you’ve already missed out on the following list of players who may not have been on a roster at the beginning of the season: (NL) Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Nate McLouth, Jeff Keppinger; (AL) Brian Bannister, Zack Greinke, Carlos Gomez, Rafael Betancourt, and Evan Longoria. If any of these players are still available in your league, stop reading this NOW, open a new browser session, go to your league’s website, and put in a claim for one or more of them . . . Done? Good, now feel free to review the names below, which are listed first by position, then by league (for the benefit of those of you who play in NL-only or AL-only leagues):

Catchers
AL: Shawn Riggans, Miguel Olivo, Kelly Shoppach, Jeff Matthis, Gregg Zaun.

NL: Brian Schneider, Chris Iannetta, Ronny Paulino.

First Basemen
AL: Ben Broussard, Ross Gload, Kevin Millar, Eric Hinske, Sean Casey.

NL: Joey Votto, Dan Ortmeier.

Second Basemen
AL: Brendon Harris, Asdrubal Cabrera, Mark Grudzielanek, Jose Lopez.

NL: Eugenio Velez, Jayson Nix, Tad Iguchi, Ray Durham, Adam Kennedy.

Shortstops
AL: David Eckstein, Bobby Crosby, Yuniesky Betancourt, Erick Aybar.

NL: Cristian Guzman, Clint Barmes.

Third Basemen
AL: Mike Lamb, Jack Hannahan, Marco Scutaro.

NL: Jorge Cantu, Nomar Garciaparra, Jose Castillo.

Outfielders
AL: Carlos Quentin, Franklin Gutierrez, Jose Guillen, Jonny Gomes, Jack Cust (only in leagues that use OBP instead of AVG!), David Murphy, Ryan Sweeney, Travis Buck, Justin Ruggiano, Emil Brown, David DeJesus.

NL: Ryan Church, Angel Pagan, Fred Lewis, Matt Diaz, Scott Hairston, Skip Schumaker, Ryan Ludwick, Jayson Werth, Jim Edmonds, John Bowker.

Designated Hitters
AL: Mike Sweeney

Starting Pitchers
AL: John Danks, Edwin Jackson, Dana Eveland, Jeff Niemann, Kevin Slowey, Chad Gaudin, Jason Hammel.

NL: Micah Owings, Mike Pelfrey, Scott Olsen, Tom Glavine, Wandy Rodriguez, Shawn Hill, Jonathan Sanchez, Kevin Correia, Justin Germano, Zach Duke, Jamie Moyer, Nelson Figueroa.

Relief Pitchers
AL: Scot Shields, Jeremy Accardo, Rafael Perez, Santiago Cassilla (the Pitcher formerly known as Jairo Garcia), Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Mark Lowe.

NL: Heath Bell, Manny Acosta, Tony Pena, Duaner Sanchez, Jonathan Broxton, Brian Fuentes, Jared Burton, Matt Lindstrom, Will Ohman, Royce Ring.

Some of these players have a bright future ahead of them, while some are no more than band-aids to be used for as short a time as possible, then discarded. The key point is that unless your league uses average-based stats only, you can’t afford to go any length of time, especially this early in the season, without accumulating At-Bats and Innings Pitched.

Finally, I’ve omitted the names of injured players who may be helpful in the near future, such as Al Reyes, who is quite likely the only Pitcher in MLB history to get tasered one day, then record a victory the next. He subsequently went on the Disabled List with an injury that’s apparently unrelated to his being tasered. Rumor has it the Cincinnati Bengals have already called to inquire about Reyes’ availability.

Until next time,

The Sherpa

It happens every year, just like the swallows returning to San Juan Capistrano. A previously undistinguished hitter gets off to a fast start, and sportswriters speculate on whether a major league hitter will ever be able to hit .400 for an entire season again (I believe the answer is “no”, but that’s another topic for another day). If the same hitter were to hit .400 for 15 games in the middle of the season rather than at the beginning of the season, most of us would barely raise an eyebrow. However, due to what I referred to in a previous post as “Tuffy Rhodes Syndrome“, baseball fans tend to give a disproportionate amount of weight to events at the start of the season.

This year’s fast starters include A.J. Pierzynski (.421 as of this morning), Jason Kendall (.405), Angel Pagan (.385), Nate McLouth (.383), Luke Scott (.375), and Kurt Suzuki (.370). Obviously, none of these hitters will have a batting average anywhere near .400 when the season ends. But how many of them will finish with even a .300 average? Again, the answer could very well be zero.

So, how should you go about forecasting a batting average for the remainder of the season? Let’s use Pierzynski as an example. Suppose that going into the season you expected Pierzynski to hit .270 for the season. How should that expectation be combined with the .421 he’s hit through approximately the first 10% of the season? I’ve read a number of fantasy sportswriters’ articles on this subject, and their approaches usually fall into one of 2 categories: (1) expect Pierzynski to finish the season with his expected average of .270 (which implies that his average for the remaining 90% of the season will be .253); (2) expect Pierzynski to hit .270 for the rest of the season (which implies that his batting average for the season will be .285).

I disagree with both of these approaches. The first is an example of what statisticians refer to as the Gambler’s Fallacy, which means that (supposedly) independent events (such as future at-bats) are entirely dependent on past events. Andy Behrens, a very thought-provoking and entertaining fantasy sportswriter for Yahoo, had a great description of the Gambler’s Fallacy in a post he made yesterday. The second approach goes too far in the opposite direction, assuming that what a hitter has done season-to-date has zero predictive value in forecasting what he’s likely to do for the remainder of the season.

I suggest a third approach that combines what the hitter was expected to do with what the hitter has actually done in order to forecast what he’s likely to do for the remainder of the season. There are several possible weighting schemes, but for the sake of simplicity, I’ll go with a linear weighting scheme (i.e. - if the season is 10% complete, the hitter’s actual results should receive 10% weight, and his expected results should receive 90% weight). Applying this approach to the Pierzynski batting average example suggests that a reasonable forecast for Pierzysnki’s batting average for the rest of the season is .285 (which implies that his batting average for the season will be .299).

Some may still argue that .270 is a better forecast than .285. Let’s look at another example, this one from last season. If you expected Andruw Jones to hit .260 for the season, but he’s hitting just .211 at the All-Star break, would you still expect him to hit .260 for the remainder of the season? Probably not. Since the All-Star break occurs after roughly 55% of the season has been played, I would have forecast a rest-of-season average for Jones of .233 (= 55%*.211 + 45%*.260). Jones actually hit .236 for the rest of the season. I realize that one cherry-picked example doesn’t prove my argument, but hopefully, you get the idea.

How can you use this information to your advantage in your fantasy leagues? People often talk of wanting to “sell high and buy low” with respect to making early-season trades, but do you actually have the backbone required to do so? If so, congratulations - you’re probably well on your way to scooping up some above-average players at below-average prices. If not, re-read the above, pick some real-life examples from the current season, and follow them.

Others may have an easier time selling high on a fast-starting player than buying low on a slow-starting player. Who are some of this year’s “slow starters” who may be ideal buy-low candidates? C.C. Sabathia and Roy Oswalt come to mind immediately on the pitching side, while Carl Crawford, Alfonso Soriano, Robinson Cano, and Ryan Braun are among the hitters off to sub-par starts. A savvy team owner will rebuff your attempts to trade for one of these players, but some may be willing to part with these players for a below-market offer.

I’ll leave you with an example I witnessed last season. A friend had Alex Rodriguez on his team, but was struggling in the pitching categories. His league required that all trades be balanced from a position standpoint (i.e. - you couldn’t trade a Third Baseman straight up for a Pitcher). In late May/early June he took advantage of a fellow owner’s willingness to sell low on Garrett Atkins and buy high on the fast-starting Boof Bonser, trading A-Rod and Boof Bonser in exchange for Garrett Atkins and Johan Santana. As you might expect, my friend was able to climb a number of places in his league’s standings after pulling off that trade.

Until next time,

The Sherpa