The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Remember the circus event that took place just a couple of months ago when Scott Boras and the Los Angeles Dodgers staged one of the strangest negotiations in the history of free agency?  That all seems like a distant memory now.  The 50-game suspension of Manny Ramirez today for the use of a banned substance tore through the baseball world like a tornado, leaving many fantasy baseball team owners to pick up the pieces and wonder “what next?”.

If you’re unfortunate enough to play in a league that has no Bench or DL spots, you have little choice but to let Manny go or find another owner who’s willing to give you pennies on the dollar in a trade - you can’t afford two months of goose eggs from a roster spot if you hope to win your league’s championship this year.

If a Bench or DL spot is an option in your league, then your team’s situation isn’t nearly as dire.  However, there’s still the matter of replacing Manny’s name in your lineup.  It goes without saying that you won’t be able to come anywhere near replacing Manny’s production in your lineup unless you get lottery ticket lucky with a rookie call-up like Matt LaPorta or Nolan Reimold (I assume that they’re already taken if they’re eligible in your league).

If your league has a DH/Utility spot, and you’re fortunate enough to have an outfielder in that spot currently, then you’re also relatively fortunate in that you have the entire free agent hitter pool to consider for a Manny replacement.  If not, then you’ll have to confine your search to the available pool of outfielders.

The following are ranked lists of outfielders who may be available in your league, depending of course on the type of league you play in (NL-only vs. Mixed) and your league’s particular roster requirements.  Both sets of rankings assume the usual 5 hitting categories (HR, RBI, SB, R, AVG).  These remainder-of-season rankings are taken from the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa In-season Updates.  Since each player is given a maximum score of 1.00 in each of the categories, the maximum possible score is 5.00

Mixed League

1. Josh Anderson (2.18)
2. Ben Francisco (1.75)
3. Aaron Rowand (1.72)
4. Michael Cuddyer (1.56)
5. Scott Hairston (1.51)
6. Franklin Gutierrez (1.48)
7. Ryan Church (1.45)
8. Ken Griffey Jr (1.38)
9. Juan Pierre (1.31)
10. Juan Rivera (1.29)
11. Gary Matthews Jr (1.27)
12. Wladimir Balentien (1.23)
13. Chris Dickerson (1.21)
14. Brandon Moss (1.14)
15. Eric Hinske (0.91)
16. Omar Infante (0.82)
17. Micah Hoffpauir (0.72)
18. Austin Kearns (0.53)
19. Lou Montanez (0.41)
20. Laynce Nix (0.21)
21. Xavier Paul (0.09)

NL-only (I’m assuming that Rowand, Hairston, Church, and Pierre would be unavailble in this format)

1. Chris Dickerson (1.26)
2. Brandon Moss (1.18)
3. Eric Hinske (0.96)
4. Omar Infante (0.83)
5. Micah Hoffpauir (0.73)
6. Austin Kearns (0.56)
7. Laynce Nix (0.21)
8. Xavier Paul (0.10)

Note that since the players’ scores in each of the five categories are based on their forecasted result in that category relative to the league leader’s (among eligible players), the scores will vary slightly between a mixed league and an NL-only league.

Category needs should also factor into your decision; just keep in mind that you’re trying to minimize the damage rather than find someone capable or replicating Manny’s stats (it’s highly unlikely such a person exists on your league’s waiver wire)!

Then again, if he’s a fan of irony maybe Dodgers’ GM Ned Colletti has Barry Bonds’ phone # . . . . . . nah . . .

The Sherpa

FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

With just over 40% of the regular season remaining to be played, the 32 MLB teams now have a pretty idea of whether they will contend for a playoff spot this season. All of the contenders are looking for ways to upgrade their team in the weeks leading up to the July 31st trading deadline.

Most of the rumored acquisitions would represent incremental improvements rather than dramatic upgrades. However, there is one exception, the proverbial elephant in the room. Of course, that would be Barry Lamar Bonds, the all-time home run leader (until at least 2014-15, when Alex Rodriguez should assume that title, assuming he stays reasonably healthy and doesn’t suffer a dramatic drop-off in his production).

Many baseball insiders doubt that Bonds will play again, at least not this season. Bonds’ agent, Jeff Borris, recently voiced the opinion of many when he stated that his star client has been blacklisted by the baseball establishment. That may be due to Bonds’ age (he’ll be 44 next week), his inability to stay healthy/play in the outfield for extended periods of time, his ongoing legal entanglements related to alleged steroid and HGH use, his clubhouse demeanor, the accompanying media circus, or some combination of these factors. Whatever the reason(s), teams collectively feel that the distractions Bonds’ presence would create outweigh his remaining usefulness as a hitter (among all Hitters with at least 20 AB in 2007, Bonds led the majors with a .480 On Base Percentage!)

I may be in the minority, but I still firmly believe that the temptation of adding a hitter of Bonds’ stature to his lineup will prove too much to resist for some GM as the July 31st trading deadline nears, then passes. Someone will crack, break the glass, grab the jewels, and run. Of the 32 MLB teams, I believe there are 8 candidates to do just that:

1. Tampa Bay - Bonds would represent a huge upgrade over Jonny Gomes, Cliff Floyd, Eric Hinske, or anyone else the Rays may be tempted to trot out at DH. Besides, who could resist Tampa’s potential marketing slogan (”putting the Devil back in the Rays”)? Bonds would definitely inject life (and hopefully nothing else) into Tampa’s inconsistent offense.
2. NY Mets - far less likely because of Bonds’ assumed inability to play the outfield on a consistent basis. However, who would you rather have in left field 4-5 games per week - Bonds, Fernando Tatis, Nick Evans, Endy Chavez, or Angel Pagan?
3. Detroit - depending on how both Gary Sheffield’s body and the Tigers’ pitchers’ arms hold up, this could also be a good match.
4. Minnesota - signing Bonds would relegate either Jason Kubel or Michael Cuddyer to the bench.
5. Los Angeles Angels - less likely, because signing Bonds to DH would force Vlad Guerrero to play right field almost every day, which the Angels seem reluctant to do.
6. NY Yankees - Hideki Matsui may be out for the rest of the season, which would add to the offensive woes for the surprisingly run-challenged Bombers’ offense. However, with Jorge Posada, Johnny Damon, and Jason Giambi all needing to occupy the DH spot on occasion already, Bonds wouldn’t fit as well here as he would with some of the other teams further up the list.
7. Oakland - Frank Thomas and Mike Sweeney are already injured, so what’s the downside to adding Bonds? Sure, the A’s have a surplus of outfielder/DH types at this point (Exhibit A: Jack Cust). However, in an organization that places a high value on OBP and has surprisingly managed to stay within shouting distance of the Anemic Angels in spite of a “Who’s he?” pitching staff, Bonds may make sense.
8. Boston - Bonds is a logical replacement for the Red Sox if David Ortiz turns out to be less than fully recovered from his tendon sheath injury.

So, assuming that some GM soon does the “unthinkable”, what kind of stats should a fantasy team owner expect Bonds to produce over the last 2 months or so of the season? Here are my projections:

• 45 Games Played
• 148 At Bats
• 31 Runs
• 41 Hits
• 8 Doubles
• 0 Triples
• 11 Home Runs
• 29 Runs Batted In
• 44 Walks
• 22 Strikeouts
• .457 On Base Percentage
• .554 Slugging Percentage
• 1.011 On Base + Slugging Percentage

Would those kinds of stats pique your interest and help your fantasy team? I thought so. Unless you have moral qualms about owning Bonds, he’s definitely worth a speculative pick-up in your league right now if your rules permit, you have the roster space, and he’s available.

Go get him!

Until next time,

The Sherpa