The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

With all the rumors flying around a week before the July 31st trade deadline (most of which will prove to be unfounded), predicting who will wind up where is particularly challenging.  Fantasy owners also need to be mindful of the potential impacts of these trades, not only on the players involved, but also on the other players affected for both teams in the deal.

The following is a list of players whose fantasy value is likely to increase or decrease significantly by July 31st:

1. Lucas Duda, 1B/OF, NYM (Increase) - Carlos Beltran is almost certain to be traded, and that should open up significant at-bats for this budding power-hitter.  He’ll play right field most days and occasionally spell David Murphy at first base.
2.  Kyle Blanks, 1B/OF, SD (Increase)- Ryan Ludwick is another outfielder rumored to be on the move to a team in search of some outfield power.  Trading Ludwick would open up left field for Blanks, which would in turn open up first base for teammate Jose Guzman.
3. Ryan Ludwick, OF, SD (Increase) - Speaking of Ludwick, his fantasy value would almost certainly increase if he were traded anywhere other than Cleveland.
4. Josh Willingham, OF, Oak (Increase) - ditto for Willingham, who must be counting down the days until he is traded from Oakland to a pennant contender (again, unless it’s Cleveland).
5. Mike Adams/Luke Gregerson, RP, SD (Increase) - Heath Bell is another player on the almost-certain-to-be-traded list - Adams is the likely successor as the Padres’ closer, unless the team decides to move him too.  If that happens, Gregerson is the most likely candidate to close.
6. Edward Mujica, RP, Fla (Increase) - Manager Jack McKeon has already stated that Mujica is his likely closer if Leo Nunez is traded.  The likelihood of Nunez being traded is anyone’s guess, but with so many contenders looking for bullpen help, I’d place the probability of that happening at ~75%.
7. Rich Harden, SP, Oak (Increase) - Sure, any team that trades for him knows that it’s assuming a sizable risk, but he’s the most talented starting pitcher thought to be available (sorry, Hideki Kuroda and Wandy Rodriguez).  Boston, which isn’t sure when Clay Buchholz is returning or what it will get from him when he does, is a likely destination, with Cincinnati, Cleveland, and to a lesser extent Arizona, also possibilities.
8. Yonder Alonso, 1B/OF, Cin (Increase) - He’s likely to be included in any deal the Reds make to shore up their rotation.  He’s a first baseman by trade but has been playing the outfield this season at Triple-A since he’s blocked by Joey Votto in Cincinnati.
9. Ian Desmond, SS, Was (Increase) - An Ian Desmond (and others) for B.J. Upton trade makes too much sense not too happen - both players could use a fresh start.  While Upton’s batting average likely wouldn’t rise after changing teams, Desmond’s would - he’s a much better hitter than he’s shown this season.  If anything, he’s been too patient at the plate, resulting in his getting behind in the count and expanding his strike zone.
10. Alex Presley, OF, Pit (Decrease) - If a rumored deal for Ludwick or Willingham takes place, Presley will most likely be the odd man out in spite of his play since his recent recall.  If given the choice between Jose Tabata and Presley as his third outfielder, manager Clint Hurdle will likely opt for Tabata.
11. Garrett Jones, 1B/OF, Pit (Decrease) - He’s in a similar situation to Presley, but Jones could still move to first base if the Pirates decide to cut ties with the disappointing Lyle Overbay.
12. Nate Schierholtz, OF, SF (Decrease) - Like Presley, he’s played well recently, but that won’t stop the offensively-challenged Giants from seeking an upgrade (read: Carlos Beltran).
13. J.J. Putz, Closer, Ari (Decrease) - If the Diamondbacks think they have a legitimate shot to catch the Giants in the NL West, it’s unlikely they’ll rely on David Hernandez and the injury-prone Putz to close out games for them.  An intradivision trade for Heath Bell is unlikely, but a trade with the Marlins for Leo Nunez would make a lot of sense.
14. Heath Bell, Closer, SD (Decrease) - Almost any team that trades for Bell would use him as a closer, but one that might not is Texas, which already has Neftali Feliz, even if he hasn’t been as dominant this season as last.
15. Hiroki Kuroda, SP, LAD (Decrease) - It’s easy to conclude that if Kuroda moved to a better team, his win total would go up.  However, wins are largely arbitrary, and almost any team he’d be traded to would have a less-spacious park than the Dodgers.
16. Roger Bernadina/Laynce Nix, OF, Was (Decrease) - If the rumored trade for B.J. Upton goes through, Bernadina will be bumped, and will probably split time with Nix in left field.

I’ve omitted Carlos Beltran, Wandy Rodriguez, and B.J. Upton from this list, even though they’re good candidates to be traded, because I don’t believe that a change of scenery will significantly affect their fantasy values.

The Sherpa

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So it’s finally happened. Jay Bruce, who is less than half Barack Obama’s age and less than one-third of John McCain’s age, but has seemingly generated more conversation in 2008 (at least among fantasy baseball enthusiasts) than Obama and McCain combined, has finally landed in Cincinnati.

Stripping away the hype, what does this mean for those with the foresight to stash Bruce at the beginning of the season or the waiver wire priority to claim him during the season? Will he make the immediate impact that rookies Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence did after the call-ups during the 2007 season? Will he disappoint the way that Alex Gordon did during his rookie season (also 2007)? Or, as the cliche goes, does the true answer lie somewhere in the middle?

Based on his minor league rate stats, with a few subjective adjustments, here’s what I think you can realistically expect from Bruce for the rest of this season:

• 409 AB
• 62 R
• 114 H
• 30 2B
• 5 3B
• 16 HR
• 68 RBI
• 12 SB
• 36 BB
• 115 SO
• .279 AVG
• .330 OBP
• .494 SLG

So, where would these results place Bruce among his more established peers? The Sherpa Point scale assigns a score of 1.00 to the player with the top score in each category; all other players’ scores in that category are based on their result in that category compared to the league leader’s. For example, if the league leader is projected to hit 50 HRs, a batter projected to hit 40 HRs would receive 0.80 Sherpa HR pts, a batter projected to hit 25 HRs would receive 0.50 Sherpa HR pts, etc. For average-based categories such as AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS, a proxy statistic is used. Thus, if you play in a league that uses 5 offensive categories, the maximum Hitter’s Sherpa Points score would be 5.00.

Pro-rating my Preseason Projections for all Hitters, I project that in a league using the 5 standard offensive categories (AVG, HR, RBI, SB, and R) Bruce would score 2.38 Sherpa Points. This would place Bruce roughly 20th overall, comparable to the projected Sherpa Point scores for fellow Outfielders Chris Young and B.J. Upton. Obviously, their Sherpa Point scores will vary by category (in some cases quite a bit), but on an overall basis, that’s where I believe Bruce’s value will fall. For the sake of comparison, the Top 3 Outfielders (based on Preseason Projected Sherpa Points) were Matt Holliday (3.56), Carl Crawford (3.19), and Vlad Guerrero (3.08).

So while Bruce should be a strong contributor to your fantasy team if you’re fortunate enough to have him, he will not carry you to your league’s championship by himself. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he’s eventually a Top 5 Outfielder from a fantasy perspective, but that’s highly unlikely to happen in 2008. As long as you temper your expectations, you will not be disappointed.

Until next time,

The Sherpa