The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

Hi everyone,

Here’s my fantasy baseball video preview of the 2012 Cincinnati Reds’ pitchers - which two Reds’ pitchers should you avoid having on your fantasy team at all costs, and which Reds’ starting pitcher is currently flying under the radar?

Until next time,

The Sherpa

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With fantasy baseball playoffs starting this week in many Head-to-Head leagues, your selection of Starting Pitchers takes on added importance.  Sure, you’re going to start Zack Greinke, Roy Halladay, and Tim Lincecum (assuming he’s healthy) if you’re fortunate enough to have them on your team this season.  But what if you’re trying to decide between Bronson Arroyo and Kevin Correia for your last pitching spot?

 You could “go with your gut” and hope for the best (good luck with that).  You could look up each pitcher’s historical record (assuming he has one) against his upcoming opponent(s) and use that as a guide, ignoring the fact that a team’s roster is likely to experience significant turnover from season to season that will render historical results obsolete.  You could rely on the Remainder-of-Season Forecasts in the Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s In-season Updates (shameless self-promotion).

While the third option is definitely better than the first two, it still leaves out one crucial component if you’re trying to make a short-term decision on which pitcher to start:  the quality of the pitcher’s opponent.  How can this be quantified?  The same way you would quantify the pitcher’s results - look at the historical data.

To assess a starting pitcher’s upcoming matchup(s) we want to use opponents’ success (or lack thereof) against a specific team.  For example, if I play in a league that uses the standard 5 pitching categories (Wins, Saves, Ks, ERA, WHIP), I’ll want to look at MLB Opponent Pitching Stats in each category that involves starting pitchers, so that eliminates Saves from my list.

I want to set my scoring system up so that the least desirable opponents have the highest scores, and the most desirable opponents have the lowest scores.  The least desirable opponent would have the highest number of Wins (equivalently, the lowest number of losses), the biggest difference between AB and Strikeouts (or, if you prefer, the lowest Strikeout per AB rate), the highest number of Runs Scored (using this as a proxy for ERA), and the highest number of Walks + Hits (using this as a proxy for WHIP).  Conversely, the most desirable opponent would have the lowest number of Wins (equivalently, the highest number of losses), the highest Strikeout per AB rate, the lowest number of Runs Scored, and the lowest number of Walks + Hits.

We can set up a scoring system for which the “best” team in each category receives a score of 1.00, and all other teams receive a score between 0 and 1 depending on the ratio of their result to the result of the best team in each category.  Thus, the maximum score is the number of pitching categories under consideration (4 in my example).  Add up a team’s results in each category to get its overall score; again, the lower the overall score, the more desirable the opponent.

Based on games through 9/12/09, here’s how the 30 MLB teams rank using the 4 categories in my example (with their accompanying score):

1. Pit 2.82 (max score is 4.00)
2. KC 2.90
3. Cin 2.94
4. SD 2.95
5. Was 2.96
6. SF 3.05
7. Sea 3.06
8. Ari 3.08
9. NYM 3.08
10. Hou 3.09
11. Bal 3.10
12. Oak 3.12
13. ChC 3.15
14. Mil 3.17
15. Cle 3.19
16. CWS 3.20
17. Det 3.20
18. Atl 3.25
19. Tor 3.25
20. TB 3.29
21. Min 3.30
22. StL 3.33
23. Fla 3.35
24. Phi 3.38
25. Col 3.41
26. Bos 3.48
27. LAD 3.50
28. Tex 3.56
29. LAA 3.62
30. NYY 3.80

You may wonder about the impact of September call-ups on these rankings.  Generally, the teams with the highest scores (i.e. - those closest to 4.00) are fighting for playoff berths and figure to play their everyday lineups at least until they’re locked into a playoff spot.  Those with the lowest scores are generally calling up more minor leaguers and “seeing what they’ve got”, so it may be even more advantageous than this chart would indicate to stream pitchers facing these lower-ranked teams.

The approach I’ve outlined above can take some of the guesswork out of selecting starting pitchers for your weekly lineups.  Of course, use your common sense - given the choice, I’d much rather start Roy Halladay against the Yankees than start Jeff Suppan against the Pirates.  However, if you’re deciding among several pitchers of similar quality, this analysis can be extremely useful.

Good luck in the homestretch!

The Sherpa

Fantasy Baseball Sherpa

The Fantasy Baseball Sherpa’s Blog

@fantasy_sherpa on Twitter

Every fantasy baseball owner dreams of “discovering” the next Johan Santana or Jake Peavy before the rest of their leaguemates. However, many owners forget that for every Cole Hamels who bursts onto the fantasy scene and makes an immediate and lasting impact, there are many more pitchers like Homer Bailey and Phil Hughes, who disappoint their owners when their initial successes are tempered, if not outweighed altogether, by their struggles.

This season has been no exception. Johnny Cueto looked like the second coming of Bob Gibson in his first two starts; lately, he has looked more like the second coming of Kei Igawa, serving up in-game batting practice for his opponents’ hitting pleasure. Cueto will most likely be sent back to the minors shortly to gain some much-needed experience. Nick Adenhart has already been banished back to the minors after just three awful starts.

Meanwhile, this year’s early-season pitching surprises include below-the-radar types such as Edinson Volquez, Greg Smith, Dana Eveland, John Danks, Garrett Olson, and Vicente Padilla. What, if anything, do they all have in common? All except for Smith had MLB experience prior to this year. All except for Olson have switched organizations at least once in their career. All of them have made at least 10 starts in AAA. All of them are 23-24 years old, except for Padilla, who is 30.

Which of the pitchers in this group have the best chance at sustaining their success over the course of the season? I looked at Year-to-Date stats for all MLB starting pitchers, searching for those who have started at least 3 games, have a K/9 rate of at least 6, and a K/BB ratio of at least 2. I also looked at Batting Average Against on Balls in Play (BAABIP) to see whether “luck” played a factor in a pitcher’s success (or lack thereof). These screening criteria suggest that Volquez and Danks have the best chance at remaining successful, with Olson also being a possibility.

These criteria also turned up some veteran pitchers who may still be available in your league. Bronson Arroyo is off to an atrocious start due to a combination of bad luck (a .357 BAABIP) and a severe case of gopheritis (1.8 HRs allowed per 9 innings pitched). However, his 3-year averages suggest that he is a much better pitcher than that - if you have space on your bench, I would definitely take a flier on Arroyo rather than burn my waiver priority or Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) dollars on Clayton Kershaw, who has not pitched even a single game at the AAA level yet. If you’re going to gamble on an unproven pitcher currently in the minors, you’re far better off betting on Homer Bailey (the sequel) than you are putting your fantasy chips on Kershaw.

Other veterans who should do more for your fantasy staff than the likes of Darrell Rasner, Aaron Laffey, et. al. - Chad Gaudin (when, not if, he rejoins Oakland’s rotation); Wandy Rodriguez, Jason Schmidt, Kevin Milwood, and Curt Schilling (when they return from the DL). I’d also take a chance on Hong-Chih Kuo if he joins the Dodgers’ rotation. Shawn Hill and Jose Contreras are two other options to consider if you currently have holes in your pitching staff. Don’t get me wrong - none of the pitchers on this list will be receiving Cy Young votes this season, but they all have the potential to be serviceable starters at the back of your fantasy team’s rotation.

However, keep in mind that experience is not always an advantage - if you want to add Livan Hernandez, Matt Chico, or Sidney Ponson to your fantasy pitching staff, you do so at your own peril - they are definitely the fantasy baseball equivalents of the Trojan horse, and you will get no sympathy from me if you choose to add any of them!

Until next time,

The Sherpa